[pdf]

I’ve been wondering for a while where our Champions League qualifying match might take us and been confused by comments from others saying “we can’t play X they are seeded”.

After an hour of trying to comprehend the situation, my understanding is that we could almost definitely () be playing Sampdoria or Auxerre and, if other qualifying games go according to schedule (bookies odds), the other three ‘probables’ are Fernabache, Dynamo Kyiv and Braga (Portugal).

Who we will play is determined by UEFA seeding coefficients (see www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2010.html) and the results of five qualifying games (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2...ampions_League).

Five teams, including Spurs (seeding coefficient 56.4; plus Sevilla 108.9, Werder Bremen 94.8, Sampdoria 30.9 and Auxerre 19.8), are automatically into the final qualifying round and awaiting the outcome of five matches between ten other teams that qualified as non-champions through previous rounds, these games take place on 27/28 July and 4 August.

The five games and the seeding coefficients and bookies favourites (asterisk) are:-
Ajax 55.3* vs PAOK 11.5
Dynamo Kyiv 42.9 * vs Gent 6.6
Young Boys 7.7 vs Fernabache 54.9*
Braga 39.7* vs Celtic 38.2
Unirea Urziceni 18.9 vs Zenit St Petersburg 61.3*

The draw for our qualifying round takes place on August 6. Before the draw Spurs and the four other automatic qualifiers; plus the five winners of the above matches will be ranked/sorted according to their seeding coefficient (that’s why the seeding numbers are provided above). At that point the top five are seeded and cannot play each other. Spurs, Sevilla and Werder Bremen have such high seeding coefficients that they are assured of being seeded.

My guess is that the five seeded teams will be Spurs, Sevilla, Werder Bremen, Zenit St Petersburg and Ajax. The five teams I predict they will be drawn against are Fernabache, Dynamo Kyiv, Braga, Sampdoria and Auxerre. According to bookies odds the best of these to be drawn against (to win and go through to the group stage) are Braga and Auxerre. The team to avoid will be Sampdoria.

So pack your bags and get ready for a European tour to Italy or France or Ukraine or Turkey or Portugal

I will probably be wrong, so the seeding numbers above should help anyone to update the possibilities after the five qualifying games have taken place.