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Race for the Top 4 - 2018/19

Where will we finish in the league ?


  • Total voters
    423
  • Poll closed .

SixtyFour

Well-Known Member
May 20, 2008
232
612
Here is another ‘slightly too much time on hands’ analysis of how things are panning out so far.

The (expected) ‘top 6’ are judged against the following ridiculously high expectation: they will win ALL home games; they will win all away games – except those against ‘top 6’ rivals, which they will lose. That would give a total of 105 points.

As the season progresses a running total is kept of points dropped or gained against that standard (examples: City draw at Wolves = minus 2; City win at Arsenal = plus 3).

After 8 games (deviations from expectation shown)
City : +2 Arse(a)+3; Wolves(a)-2; Liv(a)+1
Liv +2 Spurs(a)+3; Chels(a) +1; City(h)-2
Spurs -3 Utd(a)+3; Wat(a)-3; Liv(h)-3
Arse -3 City(h)-3
Chels -6 Wham(a)-2; Liv(h)-2; Utd(h)-2
United -10 Bright(a)-3; Spurs(h)-3; Wolves(h)-2; Wham(a)-3; Chels(a)+1
 
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BringBack_leGin

Well-Known Member
Jul 28, 2004
27,719
54,929
Well after that, we have a real opportunity tomorrow to move 3rd, two points off top and joint with Chelsea in 2nd. Hopefully we have enough of our key players (Vertonghen aside) fit at just the right time to make a good fist of it.
 

E17yid

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2013
16,985
30,495
Just write tomorrow off. Not the end of the world. We’ve done well to win our last 4 on the bounce so we can afford to lose this one. Don’t want to get spanked, though.
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
Some people on here are curiously in denial about Arsenal's chances of finishing top 4. On current evidence, they are more likely candidates than we are.
I still maintain that making top 4 for us this year is a massive challenge. I hope Poch realises it too, and begins to modify his targets. If we get tonked on Monday, and begin to drift away from fourth place, he should hopefully turn his attention to the cups; especially as it might be his last season here.

if Arsenals defence plays anything like they have recently they will need to score 5 next week to get a draw
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
So you want us to throw the league while it's not even November, even though at Xmas last year we were in 7th?
Top 4, with our resources, is a massive challenge every year...and one that under Poch we've done pretty damn well at.

Arsenal's form won't continue, they are scoring with 20% of their shots on target, when the average is 9%.
This can't continue...they are just getting the rub of the green at the moment.
For them to keep up their form they will need to start creating twice as many goalscoring chances...not gonna happen.
They're not being clinical, they're being lucky.

Gb they are just desperate for a final/trophy, they don't even understand that if we don't get CL the debt for the stadium will take a lot longer to pay off, as we will lose so much income by not being involved in it. they also don't understand that the majority of the squad will want moves because they want to play in the comp
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
Here is another ‘slightly too much time on hands’ analysis of how things are panning out so far.

The (expected) ‘top 6’ are judged against the following ridiculously high expectation: they will win ALL home games; they will win all away games – except those against ‘top 6’ rivals, which they will lose. That would give a total of 105 points.

As the season progresses a running total is kept of points dropped or gained against that standard (examples: City draw at Wolves = minus 2; City win at Arsenal = plus 3).

After 8 games (deviations from expectation shown)
City : +2 Arse(a)+3; Wolves(a)-2; Liv(a)+1
Liv +2 Spurs(a)+3; Chels(a) +1; City(h)-2
Spurs -3 Utd(a)+3; Wat(a)-3; Liv(h)-3
Arse -3 City(h)-3
Chels -6 Wham(a)-2; Liv(h)-2; Utd(h)-2
United -10 Bright(a)-3; Spurs(h)-3; Wolves(h)-2; Wham(a)-3; Chels(a)+1

why haven't you included the Chelsea 3 v Arsenal 2 result?
 

scat1620

L'espion mal fait
May 11, 2008
16,285
52,498
Copied from tonight's match thread against Man City, but I think the result tonight is our league points/position starting to return to the mean and match the level of our performances this season. We can all see that we haven't played well consistently so far this season, and results will increasingly bear those performances out if we can't improve the standard of our play.

I wouldn't back us to finish in the top 4 this season, but worse than that I'm now a little jittery that we might finish below Arsenal (whether they are in the top 4 or not) and that scares the daylights out of me.
 

coys200

Well-Known Member
May 22, 2017
8,436
17,403
Still think we are a much better team than Arsenal. We’ve lost narrowly to the two best teams in the league and with a bit of luck could easily have drawn both. If you add in Watford we could easily still be unbeaten, but unfortunately we aren’t. I suspect Arsenal will get blown away by Liverpool at weekend. We have 6 tough games coming but then a very favourable run of 10. Arsenal next 6 pretty tough as well. If are in an around it after next few games i’d fancy to pull away after that. NLD will be pretty crucial. But I’d expect 4th is likely best we can achieve. Which I’d take and then re group for next season hopefully in better shape.
 

shelfboy68

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2008
14,566
19,651
Still think we are a much better team than Arsenal. We’ve lost narrowly to the two best teams in the league and with a bit of luck could easily have drawn both. If you add in Watford we could easily still be unbeaten, but unfortunately we aren’t. I suspect Arsenal will get blown away by Liverpool at weekend. We have 6 tough games coming but then a very favourable run of 10. Arsenal next 6 pretty tough as well. If are in an around it after next few games i’d fancy to pull away after that. NLD will be pretty crucial. But I’d expect 4th is likely best we can achieve. Which I’d take and then re group for next season hopefully in better shape.
If we played gooners right now I think we would lose that game as well I just don't fancy us against anyone at the moment including tomorrow night.
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
If we played gooners right now I think we would lose that game as well I just don't fancy us against anyone at the moment including tomorrow night.

the run Arsenal have been on has looked better on paper than it is. the chances they have conceded in that time, with anyone half tidy at finishing they might of been lucky to get half their wins.

I have always said that our performances so far haven't been great, because we haven't been getting out of 2nd gear. the no preseason for the majority of the 12 that played in the WC, the 12 that played the world cup not clicking and a few picking up injuries. last night I know we lost, but our energy looked a lot higher. I'm starting to think the orders have been go out there do enough, and don't go full speed yet because we have to use our fitness carefully (my opinion). the trouble has been we have looked so unbalanced because not all XI have had a good day.

I agree about tomorrow, but that is because we aren't going to be able to field a half decent full strength team
 

shelfboy68

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2008
14,566
19,651
the run Arsenal have been on has looked better on paper than it is. the chances they have conceded in that time, with anyone half tidy at finishing they might of been lucky to get half their wins.

I have always said that our performances so far haven't been great, because we haven't been getting out of 2nd gear. the no preseason for the majority of the 12 that played in the WC, the 12 that played the world cup not clicking and a few picking up injuries. last night I know we lost, but our energy looked a lot higher. I'm starting to think the orders have been go out there do enough, and don't go full speed yet because we have to use our fitness carefully (my opinion). the trouble has been we have looked so unbalanced because not all XI have had a good day.

I agree about tomorrow, but that is because we aren't going to be able to field a half decent full strength team
I'm not sure what the answer is probably an amalgamation of everything but it's so frustrating to see how we played last year In the CL with going unbeaten in our group etc to see the dross served up this time around across all competitions.
To me poch does not look himself nor do any of the players who look disinterested if I'm honest it looks like all the life had been sucked out of them all, I think the lack of events over the summer have left the club in a state of general apathy.
 
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Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
I'm not sure what the answer is probably an amalgamation of everything but it's so frustrating to see how we played last year In the CL with going unbeaten in our group etc to see the dross served up this team around across all competitions.
To me poch does not look himself nor do any of the players who look disinterested if I'm honest it looks like all the life had been sucked out of them all, I think the lack of events over the summer have left the club in a state of general apathy.

this and our other CL campaign we blew out came on the back of a major tournament. the annoying thing is we haven't played as badly this time in the CL, okay nothing close to last season, but the Icardi strike gave Inter the lift and deflated a pretty knackered us, but we deserved a better result. PSV 2 errors cost us but the performance deserved better.

with Poch I think too many things are happening, failure to sell the players he wanted gone, failure to buy because we never sold and already having an over inflated squad, the stadium, un-signed contracts, the WC, not being able to train the way he wants, injuries and life. that's enough to make anyone unhappy
 

shelfboy68

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2008
14,566
19,651
this and our other CL campaign we blew out came on the back of a major tournament. the annoying thing is we haven't played as badly this time in the CL, okay nothing close to last season, but the Icardi strike gave Inter the lift and deflated a pretty knackered us, but we deserved a better result. PSV 2 errors cost us but the performance deserved better.

with Poch I think too many things are happening, failure to sell the players he wanted gone, failure to buy because we never sold and already having an over inflated squad, the stadium, un-signed contracts, the WC, not being able to train the way he wants, injuries and life. that's enough to make anyone unhappy
Yes agree the icardi strike was hard to defend against simply because no one expected it but that is half the problem we let teams back in, Watford away they had done nothing barely registered an effort then wallop we fall away and are left hanging on at 2-1 when they were rampant and could have scored more.
Same against Milan and West ham when we allowed them to pick up momentum give the crowd a lift and nearly chucked that away.
We most certainly do not look like a top four club right now hopefully they will pick it up but I'm not sure this time around.
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
Yes agree the icardi strike was hard to defend against simply because no one expected it but that is half the problem we let teams back in, Watford away they had done nothing barely registered an effort then wallop we fall away and are left hanging on at 2-1 when they were rampant and could have scored more.
Same against Milan and West ham when we allowed them to pick up momentum give the crowd a lift and nearly chucked that away.
We most certainly do not look like a top four club right now hopefully they will pick it up but I'm not sure this time around.

I actually have Watford away as our worst performance so far, and wondered why Poch played a 3 at the back, and Dembele as our holding mid. the annoying thing is a committed Jan could of blocked the Icardi strike, and agree we sat back to much against spam
 

SpartanSpur

Well-Known Member
Jan 27, 2011
12,552
43,063
I'll take being a point off the top 4 the way this season has gone so far, Arsenal have been flying and we have been struggling.

I just hope we kick into gear soon. There have been some green shoots of promise in the last two despite the results. Eriksen and Dele back, Winks looking back to where he was pre-injury. Long long way to go. We'll be in this top 4 race right to the end IMHO.
 
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