Cain Hoy say 'No'.

Dirty Ewok · Sep 13, 2014

davidmatzdorf said:
As I keep saying, the fuss is feeding on itself. There is actually nothing there, except for an investor considering whether trying to buy a football club might be a good use of their capital. That happens all the time. It isn't a big deal. The leak to the journalist and the subsequent spin are what have made it notable, not the actual state of play.

You bring up some very fair points, but i think you also have to consider the people involved.

Like you said and i have said in this thread ENIC don't need to sell, they may not even want to sell, we may be looking at 15 more years of ENIC in charge (whether people hate this prospect or not)....they own the club and are under no obligation to sell.

Cain Hoy followed their legal obligation and announced that they are considering a bid. Fair enough, as you said things like this happen.

But, Cain Hoy are not made up of people who will just make this type of legally obligated announcement without their being something behind it. For the people involved with this type of situation by the time it is reaching the point where they make the announcement that they are "considering" a bid they will have already done the full consideration ahead of time. These guys would have a pretty good idea of what their bid will may be before reaching this stage.

Cain Hoy looks to have been formed specifically with the intent of buying a PL team, given the people involved i would venture a guess that they have a short list of clubs drawn up that they are considering purchasing. Spurs would be at the very top of the list or else they wouldn't have reached this stage. If they just wanted a PL team then they would be chasing Villa who's owner is looking to sell (and i believe has publicly stated this), they wouldn't even be "considering" a bid on a team that isn't officially up for sale.

Now, given that ENIC may not not want to sell there is a chance that these guys will try to open up dialogue and promptly be told "go fuck yourself", they could decide to actually roll through with a low ball bid, any number of things could happen and it may be absolutely nothing.

But based on circumstantial evidence there would seem to be a fair amount that would indicate that this could develop into a very serious and legitimate offer (and an offer in no way means that ENIC sells or that we have new owners by Christmas or ever). It wouldn't have reached this stage, as early as it is, without their being some genuine interest and intent on pursuing a potential sale by Cain Hoy.

Are people making a jump in logic that we are GOING to sell? - yes

Are people making a jump in logic that Cain Hoy are GOING to bid? - yes...but, it isn't much of a jump given the people involved.

mrlilywhite · Sep 13, 2014

davidmatzdorf said:
I must be failing to get my point across, or people just aren't reading it. It's getting to the point where I ought to give up.

I agree with everything you just wrote and not one word of it conflicts with what I just wrote.

I'm not dissing the possibility of a bid. I'm talking about how these things get out of hand and the way rumours work. I go on evidence, not hunch.

Of course these people are serious. But they have to do their due diligence before they decide whether to make a bid. In the meantime, everyone is being rather silly.

I think I've written the same thing about 4 different ways. No one is getting it and people keep disagreeing with things I didn't write. Time to stop.

I get what you are saying mate, separating optimism and realism is not something that most want to comprehend. Me? I am all for this, but am keeping an open mind as it stands. If a bid comes in and is accepted, then great, but even if we do get new owners, there is no guarantee that they will give us the opportunity to compete at the top table. As things stand, it is all if's and maybe's.

Scott Spur · Sep 13, 2014

davidmatzdorf said:
Who says there's 'no interest in making a cash offer'? Obviously there is interest: they have declared it formally. But 'interest' is not the same as an actual offer. They clearly reserved their right either to make an offer or to withdraw and not make an offer. They are studying the financial status of THFC and working out their figures before they make up their minds.

But it's not unusual for a large investor to consider whether to make an offer. And it's not even unusual for such an offer to be made. My scepticism here is not about whether Cain Hoy are serious. It's about the journo-and-fan-fuss that has blown this up way past what is actually happening.

The level of assumption and groundless certainty on show here is laughable. No one even knows whether there will be an offer, but we have people baldly stating that ENIC 'will sell' or 'won't sell' based on nothing but their prejudices and hunches.

The only remotely reliable information we have is this:

ENIC are speaking to multiple investors, including Cain Hoy, about finance for the stadium.

Cain Hoy, perhaps intrigued by what they saw when having these discussions, are working on a proposal to buy the club outright, a proposal that they may or may not eventually make.

Someone leaked their interest in buying the club to a journalist, who wrote an exaggerated article full of innuendo and unfounded conclusions.

That article provoked Cain Hoy and THFC/ENIC to make formal statements to clarify the real situation - the statements read to me as if both parties were trying to cool down the speculation.

These statements appear to have backfired, because everyone has interpreted them to mean that the sale of the club is imminent, based on the generally-inaccurate cliché 'no smoke without fire'.

I have no axe to grind about whether there will be an offer and whether ENIC will sell, except that selling now, unless the offer is well above market value ('silly money', to quote my earlier posts), would be against ENIC's business model. If they do get an offer well above market value, again to quote myself, 'they would be daft not to sell'.

My comments here have not been about casting scorn on the underlying potential ofer. They have been about casting doubt on the wild exaggeration that has immediately consumed the sensible discussion.

As I keep saying, the fuss is feeding on itself. There is actually nothing there, except for an investor considering whether trying to buy a football club might be a good use of their capital. That happens all the time. It isn't a big deal. The leak to the journalist and the subsequent spin are what have made it notable, not the actual state of play.

It's rather frustrating that no one seems to be reading what I'm actually writing, or rather they are reading things that I am not writing and do not think. But that's what happens when you get a furore. Everyone's opinion gets stereotyped. If this offer gets made and the club gets sold, I guarantee that there will be an internet factoid on SC that I dissed the whole idea of the bid and the sale. But I didn't and I won't, because it's a possibility. It's just that there isn't any proper evidence for it yet - just an investor considering their position.

Hi mate, while I agree that this is being given the full media treatment, I don't think it's as benign as you are suggesting, IMO.

Firstly, we had ITK suggesting new American owners weeks ago, this was largely ignored at the time mainly because it didn't involve LWF's or strikers. More recently we've received ITK that Joe Lewis would value the club at about £500M, excl. the stadium investment. Now 'if' this is correct, 1)ENIC are willing to sell now for the right price, and 2) Cain Hoy or Guggenheim haven't just alighted in London last week and decided to investigate the possibility of making an offer, this has been simmering for some time.

Secondly, the fact that these guys have just started a new investment company backed by billions of dollars here the day this starts to go public seems more than a coincidence, it smells more like strategy.

Thirdly, why 'leak' a story if you have no intention to bid?

Lastly, I'm sure Cain Hoy are not the first investor that has thought about buying our club, but how often have they announced this to the stock exchange? None that I remember.

It will likely fall flat on its face despite the furore, but IMO the facts point to a slightly more tangible interest by these guys than you have put forward. Maybe the truth is somewhere in between?

COYS

amathews3416 · Sep 13, 2014

mrlilywhite said:
I get what you are saying mate, separating optimism and realism is not something that most want to comprehend. Me? I am all for this, but am keeping an open mind as it stands. If a bid comes in and is accepted, then great, but even if we do get new owners, there is no guarantee that they will give us the opportunity to compete at the top table. As things stand, it is all if's and maybe's.

Based off the history of this investment group, I think it is pretty much a guarantee they would give us every opportunity to compete with the big boys.

THFCSPURS19 · Sep 13, 2014

Dirty Ewok said:
You bring up some very fair points, but i think you also have to consider the people involved.

Like you said and i have said in this thread ENIC don't need to sell, they may not even want to sell, we may be looking at 15 more years of ENIC in charge (whether people hate this prospect or not)....they own the club and are under no obligation to sell.

Cain Hoy followed their legal obligation and announced that they are considering a bid. Fair enough, as you said things like this happen.

But, Cain Hoy are not made up of people who will just make this type of legally obligated announcement without their being something behind it. For the people involved with this type of situation by the time it is reaching the point where they make the announcement that they are "considering" a bid they will have already done the full consideration ahead of time. These guys would have a pretty good idea of what their bid will may be before reaching this stage.

Cain Hoy looks to have been formed specifically with the intent of buying a PL team, given the people involved i would venture a guess that they have a short list of clubs drawn up that they are considering purchasing. Spurs would be at the very top of the list or else they wouldn't have reached this stage. If they just wanted a PL team then they would be chasing Villa who's owner is looking to sell (and i believe has publicly stated this), they wouldn't even be "considering" a bid on a team that isn't officially up for sale.

Now, given that ENIC may not not want to sell there is a chance that these guys will try to open up dialogue and promptly be told "go fuck yourself", they could decide to actually roll through with a low ball bid, any number of things could happen and it may be absolutely nothing.

But based on circumstantial evidence there would seem to be a fair amount that would indicate that this could develop into a very serious and legitimate offer (and an offer in no way means that ENIC sells or that we have new owners by Christmas or ever). It wouldn't have reached this stage, as early as it is, without their being some genuine interest and intent on pursuing a potential sale by Cain Hoy.

Are people making a jump in logic that we are GOING to sell? - yes

Are people making a jump in logic that Cain Hoy are GOING to bid? - yes...but, it isn't much of a jump given the people involved.

I think we might be the only option for them, considering the fact that one of them is a Spurs season ticket holder...

Scott Spur · Sep 13, 2014

Sometimes the phrase 'better the devil you know' is very true, but in this instance the opportunity to get the stadium funded and maybe even sorted a bit quicker could not only free up funds being skimmed in transfer windows now, but hasten the funds that will pour in once the stadium is built.

Worth looking at.....and I'm a Levy fan! (mostly)

Rupstoh · Sep 13, 2014

Is it any surprise that THFC via Joe Lewis dangled a £1bn dollar carrot this week?

Mr Pink · Sep 13, 2014

dovahkiin said:
atlanta yid:
This all came about when a two bob jurno asked Joe Lewis would sell the club and he answered yes for a billion pound
All said in jest
The club is not for sale!

ITK or not, everything/anything is for sale at the right price...so that's a pretty futile comment.

Mr Pink · Sep 13, 2014

davidmatzdorf said:
I must be failing to get my point across, or people just aren't reading it. It's getting to the point where I ought to give up.

I agree with everything you just wrote and not one word of it conflicts with what I just wrote.

I'm not dissing the possibility of a bid. I'm talking about how these things get out of hand and the way rumours work. I go on evidence, not hunch.

Of course these people are serious. But they have to do their due diligence before they decide whether to make a bid. In the meantime, everyone is being rather silly.

I think I've written the same thing about 4 different ways. No one is getting it and people keep disagreeing with things I didn't write. Time to stop.

Surely the very fact that they've signaled their intent to bid, or possibly bid, suggests they've done some of their due diligence?

Going to the bother of putting a serious bid together involves some work and time.

SpursSince1980 · Sep 13, 2014

Mr Pink said:
Surely the very fact that they've signaled their intent to bid, or possibly bid, suggests they've done some of their due diligence?

Nail on the head. A group like that doesn't make a public statement to that effect, unless they've already put some consideration into the topic. Once I saw the statement from Cain Hoy I went straight to the point of them being very serious about looking into this investment. Of course there will be much fuss in the media, and speculation by us wee fans. But that's to be expected, and a wonderful part of being in this 'community'. Just for moments like this, that when they come along, we all have a common forum to laugh, vent, cry, speculate, gesticulate... etc.

I'm pretty interested in seeing where this might go. Of course, like the rest of you, I'm biased. But I genuinely look at our club and wonder how or why this hasn't happened sooner. Clearly we are a attractive investment, for all the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum. I can only assume that a few queries have been made in the past, but ENIC have set the price bar too high.

Given what just happened with the LA Clippers, it's pretty clear, that if the erstwhile investor has the cash, they'll pay above and beyond what is 'rational', if they feel it will make a good long term investment. Someone like Steve Ballmer may have billions, but he's not someone who would just flush it away. He knows what he's doing. Just like this Cain Hoy investors do.

I know nada... but I'd but a big bet on this being signed, sealed and delivered by January.

mrlilywhite · Sep 13, 2014

Lol, just looked at their website, and it looks like they have tried to incorporate some of our traditional colours. The company logo looks like a combination of blue,white and yellow (Yellow being a colour we have used often for our 3rd kit)........All I am gonna say is POTL is a bloody genius, he prophesied this ages ago....Blue and yellow

. http://cainhoyenterprises.com/

mrlilywhite · Sep 13, 2014

jeremystorey said:
Nail on the head. A group like that doesn't make a public statement to that effect, unless they've already put some consideration into the topic. Once I saw the statement from Cain Hoy I went straight to the point of them being very serious about looking into this investment. Of course there will be much fuss in the media, and speculation by us wee fans. But that's to be expected, and a wonderful part of being in this 'community'. Just for moments like this, that when they come along, we all have a common forum to laugh, vent, cry, speculate, gesticulate... etc.

I'm pretty interested in seeing where this might go. Of course, like the rest of you, I'm biased. But I genuinely look at our club and wonder how or why this hasn't happened sooner. Clearly we are a attractive investment, for all the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum. I can only assume that a few queries have been made in the past, but ENIC have set the price bar too high.

Given what just happened with the LA Clippers, it's pretty clear, that if the erstwhile investor has the cash, they'll pay above and beyond what is 'rational', if they feel it will make a good long term investment. Someone like Steve Ballmer may have billions, but he's not someone who would just flush it away. He knows what he's doing. Just like this Cain Hoy investors do.

I know nada... but I'd but a big bet on this being signed, sealed and delivered by January.

This seems true, and any fans thinking they might splurge a load of cash, might want to think again.

“We are excited to announce the launch of Cain Hoy Enterprises,” said Mr. Silverman. “At Cain
Hoy, we bring dedicated funding and financial expertise to the goal of creating value over the
long term.”
Mr. Goldstein added, “Cain Hoy is permanently financed and we are patient investors. This
gives us greater flexibility to pursue significant opportunities that need to mature and to develop
over time.”

I think they will improve us no end, but they will not just invest just for the sake of it. It seems they are just a better ENIC, which is fine by me.

THFCSPURS19 · Sep 13, 2014

mrlilywhite said:
This seems true, and any fans thinking they might splurge a load of cash, might want to think again.

“We are excited to announce the launch of Cain Hoy Enterprises,” said Mr. Silverman. “At Cain
Hoy, we bring dedicated funding and financial expertise to the goal of creating value over the
long term.”
Mr. Goldstein added, “Cain Hoy is permanently financed and we are patient investors. This
gives us greater flexibility to pursue significant opportunities that need to mature and to develop
over time.”

I think they will improve us no end, but they will not just invest just for the sake of it. It seems they are just a better ENIC, which is fine by me.

Look up the spending of the LA Dodgers and think again

They would spend but they're clever enough to not over-do it because of FFP.

mrlilywhite · Sep 13, 2014

THFCSPURS19 said:
Look up the spending of the LA Dodgers and think again

They would spend but they're clever enough to not over-do it because of FFP.

With all due respect mate, that is your opinion, though what they invested in the L.A Dodgers so far is a lot, but when it comes to the sporting side of both teams, they are completely different, and don't have transfer fees, just big wages. I do think they will spend, and just looking at that statement I posted suggests that are quite prudent. I think overall it is a step up from ENIC, and looking slightly longer term can see them making us a force, if they do indeed buy us out.

Edit: Would also add that the L.A. Dodgers were in a financial mess before they were taken over, and were probably in the need of a big injection of re-financing.

Dirty Ewok · Sep 13, 2014

THFCSPURS19 said:
I think we might be the only option for them, considering the fact that one of them is a Spurs season ticket holder...

To be fair when you have only announced 3 people it wouldn't be hard to dig someone else up if the theoretical move goes sideways and you end up chasing another team....just announce another investor if need be.

In this case it seems like Cain Hoy only are focused on us (as i have said if you just want a PL team Villa is available), i imagine IF they were to pull off the sale (a very big IF of course) then Mr. Goldstein would be very visible to the supporters especially in the beginning.....putting the supporter as the one that is the public face just makes sense.

THFCSPURS19 · Sep 13, 2014

mrlilywhite said:
With all due respect mate, that is your opinion, though what they invested in the L.A Dodgers so far is a lot, but when it comes to the sporting side of both teams, they are completely different, and don't have transfer fees, just big wages. I do think they will spend, and just looking at that statement I posted suggests that are quite prudent. I think overall it is a step up from ENIC, and looking slightly longer term can see them making us a force, if they do indeed buy us out.

I don't think they would spend £1billion to buy us (which is massively above our value) and then spend little. It doesn't add up.

mrlilywhite · Sep 13, 2014

THFCSPURS19 said:
I don't think they would spend £1billion to buy us (which is massively above our value) and then spend little. It doesn't add up.

I would be gobsmacked if they do in the clubs current state. It was stated that the L.A Dodgers deal was a big overspend, but they knew that there was a windfall of $7 -$8bn coming from time warner for a long term tv contract. With us there is a lot of T.V revenue, but nowhere near those figures. That said they are obviously no fools, and I am sure they have looked at projected figures, so who knows. One thing I am confident of, is they will make us stronger, just not straight away.

Dirty Ewok · Sep 13, 2014

mrlilywhite said:
With all due respect mate, that is your opinion, though what they invested in the L.A Dodgers so far is a lot, but when it comes to the sporting side of both teams, they are completely different, and don't have transfer fees, just big wages. I do think they will spend, and just looking at that statement I posted suggests that are quite prudent. I think overall it is a step up from ENIC, and looking slightly longer term can see them making us a force, if they do indeed buy us out.

Edit: Would also add that the L.A. Dodgers were in a financial mess before they were taken over, and were probably in the need of a big injection of re-financing.

I've said from the beginning (all of 2 days now!) that i think they would spend what is necessary to ensure their investment is successful.

If they have reason to believe that a quick cash infusion of a sizable manner will result in the team being significantly better off then i could see them plunking down a fair few £££.

If they think that it would take a monumental amount of money and it wouldn't in the end result in the team being in a better position then i think that they may hold off on a spend and follow along the path Levy has set the team out on with little deviation.

THFCSPURS19 · Sep 13, 2014

Dirty Ewok said:
then i think that they may hold off on a spend and follow along the path Levy has set the team out on with little deviation.

That would be utterly pointless.

Dirty Ewok · Sep 13, 2014

mrlilywhite said:
I would be gobsmacked if they do in the clubs current state. It was stated that the L.A Dodgers deal was a big overspend, but they knew that there was a windfall of $7 -$8bn coming from time warner for a long term tv contract. With us there is a lot of T.V revenue, but nowhere near those figures. That said they are obviously no fools, and I am sure they have looked at projected figures, so who knows. One thing I am confident of, is they will make us stronger, just not straight away.

The thing that becomes an interesting thought process in these things is this....

For the Dodgers they paid well above the market value, they seemed prepared to pay above market value for the Clippers and while not Cain Hoy the Bills just sold for what could be thought of as above market value...

But that market value is based on the perceived pricing TODAY.

If you are thinking of these as long term investments (as Cain Hoy, Guggenheim and ENIC seem to) then an overspend at the beginning can still be a forgiveable decision (though not a common one) if you believe in the long haul that your value and revenues will increase.

A potential ownership of Cain Hoy may not see overpaying in 2014 as a bad thing if they believe prices on a PL team will increase as the years pass essentially would paying £700m in 2014 make sense if you believe the same purchase could cost you £1.2B in 2020?

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