Reasons for our defensive Improvement

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

OK, so with the germ of the seed of an idea implanted in my brain by the thread started by @TwanYid about the less obvious reasons for our "success" I thought I'd undertake a major (by my standards) statistical analysis to see if some of my theories for our improved defensively performance held up and make them the subject of the next article for the blog. The article is entirely about Spurs and I think the results were illuminating.

https://forensiconions.wordpress.com/2015/11/11/che-pochs-revolutionary-insurgency-advancing/

The bottom line is the incredibly impressive contribution our most used front four (Kane, Lamela, Eriksen, Dembele) are now consistently making to our defensive solidity. They are literally pissing the rest of the league's front four for graft.

I appreciate that tackles and interceptions are only two aspects of a pressing policy but I believe the upturn in our performance in this area in our front four unit is indicative of Pochettino's philosophy taking hold.

Here's one of the stat spreadsheet's from the article relating to the tackles/interceptions of the front four of all EPL teams:

TT PG = Front Four (F4) Total Tackles per game / TI PG = F4 Total Interceptions per game / AT PP = Average Tackles per person (per F4 player)/ AI PP = Average Interceptions per person (per F4 player) / TCTI PG = F4 Total Combined Tackles & Interceptions per game / TAPP PG = Total Average Combined Tackles & Interceptions per person (per F4 player).

Have a gander, see what you think.

THFCSPURS19 · Nov 12, 2015

Bus-Conductor said:
OK, so with the germ of the seed of an idea implanted in my brain by the thread started by @TwanYid about the less obvious reasons for our "success" I thought I'd undertake a major statistical analysis to see if some of my theories for our improved defensively performance held up and make them the subject of the next article for the blog. The article is entirely about Spurs and I think the results were illuminating.

https://forensiconions.wordpress.com/2015/11/11/che-pochs-revolutionary-insurgency-advancing/

The bottom line is the incredibly impressive contribution our front four are now consistently making to our defensive solidity.

I appreciate that tackles and interceptions are only two aspects of a pressing policy but I believe the upturn in our performance in this area in our front four unit is indicative of Pochettino's philosophy talking hold.

Here's one of the stat spreadsheet's from the article:

View attachment 20789

TT PG = Front Four (F4) Total Tackles per game / TI PG = F4 Total Interceptions per game / AT PP = Average Tackles per person (per F4 player)/ AI PP = Average Interceptions per person (per F4 player) / TCTI PG = F4 Total Combined Tackles & Interceptions per game / TAPP PG = Total Average Combined Tackles & Interceptions per person (per F4 player).

Have a gander, see what you think.

Did you notice any key differences in the defensive stats of the front 4 when certain players started. For example, is there a difference when Son (who instantly seemed to 'get it'), Chadli or Townsend play as opposed to the players in the front 4 on Sunday?

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

THFCSPURS19 said:
Did you notice any key differences in the defensive stats of the front 4 when certain players started. For example, is there a difference when Son (who instantly seemed to 'get it'), Chadli or Townsend play as opposed to the players in the front 4 on Sunday?

Basically I checked stats for the 4 players that have been used most in the front four positions. The fifth most was Alli and he didn't make much difference to the overall stats (0.2 TCTI PG for example).

This has taken me fucking ages, but at some stage in the next day or so I'll check the likes of Son, Townsend and Chadli, but from recollection I know Chadli and Townsend definitely have an adverse effect.

Ironskullll · Nov 12, 2015

Very interesting. I'd be interested in knowing how many team mates are within say 3 yards of a tackle when made by another team mate. (I bet that's a hard stat to come by though...) I suspect our team excels in this respect too in that there will always be a greater number in close proximity. Of course that brings its own difficulty as to what to do with the ball next and how - an area we seem to be doing better and better at recently.

I'd also be interested in how compressed our total shape is when those tackles and interceptions are made, I reckon not nearly as severely compressed as AVB had the team playing.

Another interesting thing would be an insight into how an anticipated press affects the opposition. In other words, even when a press doesn't result in a tackle or interception but instead results in a retreat or a punt upfield.

Surprised to see Arsenal so high in that table. Deserves a winner and an informative and a like button!

mpickard2087 · Nov 12, 2015

Pretty much agree with the analysis on your blog. I seemed to be constantly arguing last year in defence of the central midfielders. We were often far too easy to advance through the first line of defence and so this then led to the centre mids swamped for men to pick up, in and around them and across into wide positions and they got unfair blame on many occasions. This year just from instinct (and your stats support it) you would say that we are doing a better job of defending from the front and having a tough, hardworking spine to the team. I'd suggest the next tweak is to sort out our covering/defending in wide positions, it was an issue last year and continues to be, maybe more so, this year (I do suspect teams are looking at this and targeting it), but so far this season we are on the right track and seen a substantial improvement.

Main Man · Nov 12, 2015

Irrespective of what is going on ahead of them, two individuals have stood out for me.

I was on the fence when we signed Toby Alderweireld. I had seen him play for Atletico and he was a liability, but I had heard good things from those who had seen him at Southampton. Not only as he performed consistently himself, he has also improved Vertongen no end. Shame neither can defend crosses, but there you go.

But above them both, Kyle Walker. He has started this season fantastically well. I know he is an easy target for most Spurs fans, but for me he has been our best player this season by an absolute mile.

Ben Davies started the season well too before being - in my opinion - harshly dropped. But there's plenty of game time ahead of him I imagine.

As long as Kieran Trippier stays away from the first team we will be OK.

COYS!

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

mpickard2087 said:
Pretty much agree with the analysis on your blog. I seemed to be constantly arguing last year in defence of the central midfielders. We were often far too easy to advance through the first line of defence and so this then led to the centre mids swamped for men to pick up, in and around them and across into wide positions and they got unfair blame on many occasions. This year just from instinct (and your stats support it) you would say that we are doing a better job of defending from the front and having a tough, hardworking spine to the team. I'd suggest the next tweak is to sort out our covering/defending in wide positions, it was an issue last year and continues to be, maybe more so, this year (I do suspect teams are looking at this and targeting it), but so far this season we are on the right track and seen a substantial improvement.

Yeah, I think both of us continually said last year that any Cm will be made to look bad when all around them is half arsed shit, and they frequently were.

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

Main Man said:
Irrespective of what is going on ahead of them, two individuals have stood out for me.

I was on the fence when we signed Toby Alderweireld. I had seen him play for Atletico and he was a liability, but I had heard good things from those who had seen him at Southampton. Not only as he performed consistently himself, he has also improved Vertongen no end. Shame neither can defend crosses, but there you go.

But above them both, Kyle Walker. He has started this season fantastically well. I know he is an easy target for most Spurs fans, but for me he has been our best player this season by an absolute mile.

Ben Davies started the season well too before being - in my opinion - harshly dropped. But there's plenty of game time ahead of him I imagine.

As long as Kieran Trippier stays away from the first team we will be OK.

COYS!

Look, I've given credit to Walker recently for some pretty decent defensive displays, but frankly, all we are getting even then is just the very basic type of defending that you'd hope any half decent (top end of the EPL) FB gives you, it's just that there's been so much utter fuckwittery from the boy for so long it;s just a relief to see him not do the utterly daft stuff he's done almost every game for four years. And he's still offering the square root of fuck all going forward, so lets keep some perspective.

Redfap · Nov 12, 2015

Ironskullll said:
Very interesting. I'd be interested in knowing how many team mates are within say 3 yards of a tackle when made by another team mate. (I bet that's a hard stat to come by though...) I suspect our team excels in this respect too in that there will always be a greater number in close proximity. Of course that brings its own difficulty as to what to do with the ball next and how - an area we seem to be doing better and better at recently.

I'd also be interested in how compressed our total shape is when those tackles and interceptions are made, I reckon not nearly as severely compressed as AVB had the team playing.

Another interesting thing would be an insight into how an anticipated press affects the opposition. In other words, even when a press doesn't result in a tackle or interception but instead results in a retreat or a punt upfield.

Surprised to see Arsenal so high in that table. Deserves a winner and an informative and a like button!

The punt up field, risky pass to the feed of a mid, or pass back to goalkeeper to kick it long and gifting of possession back to Spurs has been a recurring theme of the season in my opinion. It is a credit to the work rate of the players and the efforts of the staff to improve the conditioning of the players.

Toby has also been a much undervalued addition to the team (outside of Spurs). He has given a new lease of life to Verts and their understanding of each others game is evident in the partnership they have formed. The best teams also feature strong and regular defensive partnerships.

Kyle Walker has been exceptional this season, finally he is fit and firing. It has made a big difference, he still switches off occasionally, but he has improved in this aspect and his commitment to the cause has barely seen him better all season. He kept Sanchez (arguably one of the best players in Europe) in his pocket in the NLD.

Also, thanks for posting this analysis and opening discussion, an interesting topic.

tooey · Nov 12, 2015

Bus-Conductor said:
Look, I've given credit to Walker recently for some pretty decent defensive displays, but frankly, all we are getting even then is just the very basic type of defending that you'd hope any half decent (top end of the EPL) FB gives you, it's just that there's been so much utter fuckwittery from the boy for so long it;s just a relief to see him not do the utterly daft stuff he's done almost every game for four years. And he's still offering the square root of fuck all going forward, so lets keep some perspective.

That, plus you don't like him right?

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

Bus-Conductor said:
Basically I checked stats for the 4 players that have been used most in the front four positions. The fifth most was Alli and he didn't make much difference to the overall stats (0.2 TCTI PG for example).

This has taken me fucking ages, but at some stage in the next day or so I'll check the likes of Son, Townsend and Chadli, but from recollection I know Chadli and Townsend definitely have an adverse effect.

Replacing our best (Dembele) tackler/interceptor with Son still keeps us top of the league for TCTI PG but lowers it to 10.5.

Onviosly if he replaces one of the others it's not so drastic or even improves if he replaces say Eriksen or Kane and stretches our lead even further.

The shitters would be Chadli (combined T/I 0.6)or Townsend (0.7) who would reduce it no matter who they replaced by a minimum of 1 if they replaced Kane and a maximum of 4.7 if either replaced Dembele.

But to balance that out the same could possibly also be said for the other teams in the league of their squad players replaced preferred options.

sloth · Nov 12, 2015

Bus-Conductor said:
OK, so with the germ of the seed of an idea implanted in my brain by the thread started by @TwanYid about the less obvious reasons for our "success" I thought I'd undertake a major statistical analysis to see if some of my theories for our improved defensively performance held up and make them the subject of the next article for the blog. The article is entirely about Spurs and I think the results were illuminating.

https://forensiconions.wordpress.com/2015/11/11/che-pochs-revolutionary-insurgency-advancing/

The bottom line is the incredibly impressive contribution our most used front four (Kane, Lamela, Eriksen, Dembele) are now consistently making to our defensive solidity. They are literally pissing the rest of the league's front four for graft.

I appreciate that tackles and interceptions are only two aspects of a pressing policy but I believe the upturn in our performance in this area in our front four unit is indicative of Pochettino's philosophy taking hold.

Here's one of the stat spreadsheet's from the article:

View attachment 20789

TT PG = Front Four (F4) Total Tackles per game / TI PG = F4 Total Interceptions per game / AT PP = Average Tackles per person (per F4 player)/ AI PP = Average Interceptions per person (per F4 player) / TCTI PG = F4 Total Combined Tackles & Interceptions per game / TAPP PG = Total Average Combined Tackles & Interceptions per person (per F4 player).

Have a gander, see what you think.

Really like it, very interesting, I would love to know what percentage of the tackles are in what region of the pitch though?

One thing I'm a bit unclear on is if Total Tackles is the total combined tackles per game on average, then average tackles per person is surely that figure divided by three? But I get a different answer when I do that? Can you explain your methodology?

Also, I think you need snappier column headings, I would just add in an extra header row, have half the table with 'Total', and the other half with 'Average', and then for the individual column headers in the row beneath write in long hand 'Tackles per Game' etc. I found it was hard to keep referring to the legend at the bottom.

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

mattbrakeuk said:
That, plus you don't like him right?

why would I not like him I don't know him. All I give a shit about is what he does in a spurs shirt on a match day, and a fuck load of that has been severely lacking in cognitive functionality.

Forgive me if I don't get all warm and fuzzy because he's managed not to be the Norman Wisdom of full backing for three games running.

Bus-Conductor · Nov 12, 2015

sloth said:
Really like it, very interesting, I would love to know what percentage of the tackles are in what region of the pitch though?

One thing I'm a bit unclear on is if Total Tackles is the total combined tackles per game on average, then average tackles per person is surely that figure divided by three? But I get a different answer when I do that? Can you explain your methodology?

Also, I think you need snappier column headings, I would just add in an extra header row, have half the table with 'Total', and the other half with 'Average', and then for the individual column headers in the row beneath write in long hand 'Tackles per Game' etc. I found it was hard to keep referring to the legend at the bottom.

Divided by four as it's the front four players.

I thought I'd pretty much covered the bases showing individual averages and collective totals for tackles, interceptions and highlighted both combined for the collective group.

I've rounded up or down to one decimal point as well. Tried to be fair about it and always apply the same rule when rounding up or down and if poss if I rounded up one set if round down another set for the same team to even it up.

Matthew Wyatt · Nov 12, 2015

Thanks for working all that out, @Bus-Conductor. Enjoyable read and astonishing stats.

Two things spring immediately to mind upon your conclusion of the tremendous defensive work done by our attacking players being key. 1) This is why our opponents' fans think their teams have uncharacteristically poor games against us -- we don't let them play; 2) Pochettino is doing a brilliant job in training considering some of those attacking players (Eriksen) aren't naturally busy ****s in a defensive sense.

Did we really ship 2.6 goals a game last season? Bloody hell.

tooey · Nov 12, 2015

Bus-Conductor said:
why would I not like him I don't know him. All I give a shit about is what he does in a spurs shirt on a match day, and a fuck load of that has been severely lacking in cognitive functionality.

Forgive me if I don't suck myself off because he's managed not to be the Norman Wisdom of full backing for three games running.

That in itself is pretty telling considering he's put in 1 sub par performance this season. You're willing to go through painstakingly time consuming stats in order to prove that our forwards closing people down higher up the pitch is helping us defensively, but you refuse to just use your eyes and hand any sincere credit to the players that you quite transparently don't rate and will spend more time than I have spare trying to vindicate your opinion.

Ironskullll · Nov 12, 2015

boris said:
Thanks for working all that out, @Bus-Conductor. Enjoyable read and astonishing stats.

Two things spring immediately to mind upon your conclusion of the tremendous defensive work done by our attacking players being key. 1) This is why our opponents' fans think their teams have uncharacteristically poor games against us -- we don't let them play; 2) Pochettino is doing a brilliant job in training considering some of those attacking players (Eriksen) aren't naturally busy ****s in a defensive sense.

Did we really ship 2.6 goals a game last season? Bloody hell.

Hey, that would be nearly 100 goals over 38 games.... We conceded 53 goals... average 1.4 goals per game surely???

At 1.4 gpg we'd be on 17 goals conceded by now. Still roughly twice as good so even though the figure is way out (yes?), the basic point is still sound.

HotspurFC1950 · Nov 12, 2015

The reason for our defensive improvement is Poch ably assisted by Levy. That's it.

Matthew Wyatt · Nov 12, 2015

Ironskullll said:
Hey, that would be nearly 100 goals over 38 games.... We conceded 53 goals... average 1.4 goals per game surely???

At 1.4 gpg we'd be on 17 goals conceded by now. Still roughly twice as good so even though the figure is way out (yes?), the basic point is still sound.

That sounds more like it but, as you say, the point still stands.

Mullers · Nov 12, 2015

When I see Watford behind us in second place and Crystal palace and Leicester city above us in another category, that is another reminder to me about how early in the season this is. Last season defensively we were terrible, that couldn't continue. This season we have the fourth best defence, if chelsea were at their usual standards, they would certainly be above us in that category, that puts us as the fifth best defence which is still punching above our weight. Last season Southampton had the second meanest defence, that is the kind of standard we need to be aiming for, to achieve something in my reckoning.

You should get your blog on NewsNow, it will get far more exposure, you'll get more people linking to it and as a result, your blog will go up in the google rankings.

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