tony0379
The bald midget has to go!
- May 17, 2004
- 15,873
- 41,454
Nah no that’s fixed is it
F.A. Cup 2017/18
- Thread starter TheChosenOne
- Start date
Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,161
- 15,638
Not as low as you think. Even though there are four of each, once a big team comes out of the hat, there are only 3 other big teams compared to 4 others they can draw since they can't get themselves, so there is counter-intuitively a less than 50% chance they play another big team. What's more, as the draw goes on it gets less likely, not more, that the big teams draw each other - as one gets removed each time, the effect the previous factor has increases since you're dealing with 'smaller fractions'.
The first team out has a 4 in 7 chance of a team from the other category to themselves.
The second then has 3 in 5.
Third has 2 in 3.
Fourth has a 1 in 1, or 100% - there's only one team left, after all, and by now we know which category they're from.
The chance of a draw like this, then, where no big teams face each other is (4/7) * (3/5) * (2/3), or just under 23%. Remember also that if the big teams had drawn each other, there's a greater than 50% chance that'd be because we picked out one of the bigger sides, which is obviously a much worse result for us in terms of chances of progressing! A draw like this at this stage in the tournament isn't the best result for us, but it is a fairly good one.
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TheChosenOne
A dislike or neg rep = fat fingers
- Dec 13, 2005
- 48,055
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I'll revisit this tomorrow. I have had 2 bottles of lager plus a large vodka and red lemonade.
First drink in ages.
goughie1966
Well-Known Member
- Aug 28, 2008
- 5,150
- 17,874
For me it's Leicester or Brighton v Southampton or Us
TheChosenOne
A dislike or neg rep = fat fingers
- Dec 13, 2005
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For me it's Leicester or Brighton v Southampton or Us
We beat Leicester at Villa Park in 1982 .. They had a certain Gary Lineker playing for them that day.
TheChosenOne
A dislike or neg rep = fat fingers
- Dec 13, 2005
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It's worse than that - Arsenal are thinking of winning the Europa League Final and getting into the Champions League like Man United did last season.
Hazardousman
Audere est Facere
- Jul 24, 2013
- 4,619
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I am starting to notice a real pushback against VAR, it’s not perfect yet but it is nowhere near as bad as the critics are making it out to be.
LexingtonSpurs
Well-Known Member
- Aug 27, 2013
- 13,456
- 39,042
Its fixing a problem that nobody really thinks is a problem.
Football is about passion. Its about performance. Its about poetry in motion. Its the highs and the lows. Its about grey areas.
VAR is about precision. Its about millimeters. Its about snapshots, and viewing things in slow motion.
Do the officials get every call correct? Of course not. They never have. Does that ruin the game? Of course not.
VAR will never get all of the calls correct either. No matter how much you slow the video, or how many views you see, there are calls that will be inconclusive, and calls that are subjective. And the cost to trying to fix the problem nobody really wants to fix, is that it slows the game down.
I am opposed to VAR, but recognize that its probably not going away entirely. But, if it stays, the system should be modified such that a single official reviews the game only for "clear and obvious" errors. And those errors should be spotted immediately - because they are clear and obvious. It it requires a slow-motion replay and freeze frame to spot - then its not a "clear and obvious" error. And if it takes more than 20 seconds - its not clear and convincing - move on.
Stick with goal line technology - which is unobtrusive to the match. Leave the rest to the match officials. They do a pretty good job.
Lilbaz
Just call me Baz
- Apr 1, 2005
- 41,363
- 74,893
Think one report had that officials get 97% of decisions correct.
That's good enough for me.
slartibartfast
Grunge baby forever
- Oct 21, 2012
- 18,320
- 33,955
And there we have it, all four big clubs in the last 8 and none of them play each other.Well we've had a free ride in CL with BD, RM and Juventus so hopefully we'll only have to beat Man U and Liverpool or Chelsea to get to Man City in the final
Marvellous.
Seems every bloody time we go out early there are only 2 or 3 left and some get knocked out as they play each other so the final ends up Arsenal v Acrington Stanley or such like. We get there and its shite.
Still at least we've had a good draw so far so win 2 games against big boys and lift trophy. City are the only ones we need to worry about. Can beat the rest.
Gonna be bloody Chelsea again isnt it
Gb160
Well done boys. Good process
- Jun 20, 2012
- 23,666
- 93,382
This is it, it works much better in sports where there are a lot of stop/starts naturally in the game...cricket/rugby etc.
At least with cricket they allow for a margin of umpire error, if its that close....and that decision last night was so close its bordering on pedantic, I don't understand this sudden urge to try and make every decision 100% right down to the attackers kneecap/nipple being a few millimeters offside.
Its unnecessary, it wasn't a clear and obvious error, and it isn't needed....and in its current implementation completely kills the flow of the game.
We've got on fine without it for a hundred odd years.
I had a bit of a laugh with @Grey Fox last night as he thought that the FACup draw on a Saturday night was killing the game...this VAR mess is much more of a threat Imo.
slartibartfast
Grunge baby forever
- Oct 21, 2012
- 18,320
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Can I ask does ANYONE think VAR will continue in its current state?
It wont.
Calm down.
I'm pro VAR but if they were trying their best to make a complete fkin shambles of it they're doing a bang up job. Incompetence of the highest order.
It wont.
Calm down.
I'm pro VAR but if they were trying their best to make a complete fkin shambles of it they're doing a bang up job. Incompetence of the highest order.
the watson
COYSC
- Apr 21, 2007
- 558
- 745
Not to make this political, but being 'pro VAR' is like being pro Brexit. Passionately holding an opinion about something complicated, but leaving it for someone else to figure out.
Better to just leave it to the referee associations, or ask for something specific like goal line tech.
Shadydan
Well-Known Member
- Jul 7, 2012
- 38,247
- 104,143
Nonsense, how many contentious decisions has there been in football which have ruined matches throughout the years and refs have been criticised for failing to do their job properly.
This reminds me of the time when people were kicking up a fuss over goal line tech, when the reality is that it's one of the best things to happen to football.
People don't like it at the moment because no one likes change and people love to fucking moan for the sake of moaning, give it a year and I bet we'll be praising VAR once it sorts itself out.
Remember those games a few years back like against Stoke where Chris Foy had a mare or the FA semi against Chelsea where Atkinson awarded that goal and it didn't even cross the line? VAR would have totally corrected those decisions which ends up changing our season.
Things like this can only be a good thing, I don't understand why people can be so against something we've been crying out for for years which is only gonna help the game.
No I didn't . I was pointing out that having the draw on a Saturday night before two of the games had even been played was ruining tradition just for the sake of BT's money.
This sort of thing is why the FA cup has lost its glamour the same as having the semi-finals at Wembley.
Gb160
Well done boys. Good process
- Jun 20, 2012
- 23,666
- 93,382
Regardless, my point was that these are very minor things in comparison to the implementation of VAR, which is directly affecting the way the game is played on the field, and viewed by spectators/TV audiences.
Houdini
No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
- Jul 10, 2006
- 56,784
- 78,540
We will no longer need to have a linesman or referee to decide whether a goal has been scored or not, and that decision/responsibility, has been lifted from their shoulders.
But the decisions regarding offside will still have to be determined by the human eye and that can take just as long as a photo finish in horse racing....especially if they use those Crayola crayons to draw the lines.
But the decisions regarding offside will still have to be determined by the human eye and that can take just as long as a photo finish in horse racing....especially if they use those Crayola crayons to draw the lines.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
I've nothing against VAR so long as it doesn't unduly break up the flow of the game. Bear in mind that contentious decisions already eat up game time due to players arguing with the referee.
Obviously in it's current iteration it's a bit crap and not fit for purpose, but it will either improve or we will get rid of it. With AI getting more sophisticated all the time I can see a point where computers will referee the top flight game without any human input except perhaps a nod to tradition in the shape of a man in black who's sole job is to blow the whistle when the AI tells him to.
Obviously in it's current iteration it's a bit crap and not fit for purpose, but it will either improve or we will get rid of it. With AI getting more sophisticated all the time I can see a point where computers will referee the top flight game without any human input except perhaps a nod to tradition in the shape of a man in black who's sole job is to blow the whistle when the AI tells him to.
