10 Game Shoot-Out

[Spurger King]

It's possibly a bit arbitrary, but for a while now I've been holding back from weighing up our chances of CL qualification (and more recently, the title) until we'd got down to the last ten games.

For me, this has always been what is referred to as 'the run-in'. It's the countdown from 10, the home straight. 10 games and a potential 30 points that will decide our fate.

Of course the EL complicates things a bit (at least two extra games, and potentially another five), but in terms of the league it's simple - 10 cup finals.

We go into those games with the best goal difference in the league, in 2nd place, and just 3 points off the top. 7 points separate us from United in 5th place (in reality, 8 points due to goal difference). CL qualification looks like a very real possibility, and we'd really need to suffer a spectacular loss of form to drop out of the top 4 (with the chasing teams maintaining an uncharacteristically consistent level at the same time). I believe we'll be playing CL football next season.

As for the title - the last round of results simply highlighted how up in the air it is. I can't see anybody going unbeaten in the last 10 games. What I will say is that at this point I'm happy to say that if we play at our best for the majority of our remaining fixtures we have more than just a chance.

We have Dembele back very soon, Vertonghen will be back for the last few crunch games (where his experience will be invaluable), and even N'Jie could prove to be a surprise late contributor. Tiredness is a concern, but psychologically I believe that getting to the last 10 games in this position will give the players a psychological lift as they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's my predictions:

10: Arsenal (home) D
9: Aston Villa (away) W
8: Bournemouth (home) W
7: Liverpool (away) L
6: Man United (home) W
5: Stoke (away) D
4: West Brom (home) W
3: Chelsea (away) L
2: Southampton (home) W
1: Newcastle (away) W

20 points, leaving us on 74 points.

 

[npearl4spurs]

It's possibly a bit arbitrary, but for a while now I've been holding back from weighing up our chances of CL qualification (and more recently, the title) until we'd got down to the last ten games.

For me, this has always been what is referred to as 'the run-in'. It's the countdown from 10, the home straight. 10 games and a potential 30 points that will decide our fate.

Of course the EL complicates things a bit (at least two extra games, and potentially another five), but in terms of the league it's simple - 10 cup finals.

We go into those games with the best goal difference in the league, in 2nd place, and just 3 points off the top. 7 points separate us from United in 5th place (in reality, 8 points due to goal difference). CL qualification looks like a very real possibility, and we'd really need to suffer a spectacular loss of form to drop out of the top 4 (with the chasing teams maintaining an uncharacteristically consistent level at the same time). I believe we'll be playing CL football next season.

As for the title - the last round of results simply highlighted how up in the air it is. I can't see anybody going unbeaten in the last 10 games. What I will say is that at this point I'm happy to say that if we play at our best for the majority of our remaining fixtures we have more than just a chance.

We have Dembele back very soon, Vertonghen will be back for the last few crunch games (where his experience will be invaluable), and even N'Jie could prove to be a surprise late contributor. Tiredness is a concern, but psychologically I believe that getting to the last 10 games in this position will give the players a psychological lift as they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's my predictions:

10: Arsenal (home) D
9: Aston Villa (away) W
8: Bournemouth (home) W
7: Liverpool (away) L
6: Man United (home) W
5: Stoke (away) D
4: West Brom (home) W
3: Chelsea (away) L
2: Southampton (home) W
1: Newcastle (away) W

20 points, leaving us on 74 points.

And where do you think 74 puts us? Title, 2nd, or third?

 

[Spurger King]

And where do you think 74 puts us? Title, 2nd, or third?

I have no idea. Certainly top 4, and in with a great chance of winning the title.

I think they are fairly realistic predictions. Draw against Arsenal and away to Stoke, lose away to Liverpool and Chelsea. One win against any of them and we'd already be improving on my prediction, but I think those are the games where we drop points.

We are more than capable of winning against Villa, Bournemouth, West Brom, Southampton, and Newcastle. United at home is a difficult one to predict, but with it being at the Lane I'm confident we can get a good result.

 

[THFCSPURS19]

I have no idea. Certainly top 4, and in with a great chance of winning the title.

I think they are fairly realistic predictions. Draw against Arsenal and away to Stoke, lose away to Liverpool and Chelsea. One win against any of them and we'd already be improving on my prediction, but I think those are the games where we drop points.

We are more than capable of winning against Villa, Bournemouth, West Brom, Southampton, and Newcastle. United at home is a difficult one to predict, but with it being at the Lane I'm confident we can get a good result.

The Newcastle game will be very interesting. If they need a result to stay up, I would not be confident at all playing them at St. James' Park on the last day of the season.

 

[dricha1]

Think one of those draws needs to be a victory to win the title.

 

[@Bobby__Lucky]

It's possibly a bit arbitrary, but for a while now I've been holding back from weighing up our chances of CL qualification (and more recently, the title) until we'd got down to the last ten games.

For me, this has always been what is referred to as 'the run-in'. It's the countdown from 10, the home straight. 10 games and a potential 30 points that will decide our fate.

Of course the EL complicates things a bit (at least two extra games, and potentially another five), but in terms of the league it's simple - 10 cup finals.

We go into those games with the best goal difference in the league, in 2nd place, and just 3 points off the top. 7 points separate us from United in 5th place (in reality, 8 points due to goal difference). CL qualification looks like a very real possibility, and we'd really need to suffer a spectacular loss of form to drop out of the top 4 (with the chasing teams maintaining an uncharacteristically consistent level at the same time). I believe we'll be playing CL football next season.

As for the title - the last round of results simply highlighted how up in the air it is. I can't see anybody going unbeaten in the last 10 games. What I will say is that at this point I'm happy to say that if we play at our best for the majority of our remaining fixtures we have more than just a chance.

We have Dembele back very soon, Vertonghen will be back for the last few crunch games (where his experience will be invaluable), and even N'Jie could prove to be a surprise late contributor. Tiredness is a concern, but psychologically I believe that getting to the last 10 games in this position will give the players a psychological lift as they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's my predictions:

10: Arsenal (home) D
9: Aston Villa (away) W
8: Bournemouth (home) W
7: Liverpool (away) L
6: Man United (home) W
5: Stoke (away) D
4: West Brom (home) W
3: Chelsea (away) L
2: Southampton (home) W
1: Newcastle (away) W

20 points, leaving us on 74 points.

The eternal optimist Spurger! All seriousness I think that's a fair set of predictions, and at 2 points a game average it's about par for the course.

In a weird way losing to Chelsea could give us the advantage over Leicester on the last day, if Chelsea are within 3 points of top 4 which I think is a possibility then it almost guarantees Chelsea win v Leicester due to experience and salvaging their season, probably the best team to play Leicester for us on the final day.

I'm hoping Wednesday is a blip and last time we lost v Leicester we went on a great run. Winning Saturday could be huge..

Definitely the toughest games will be Chelsea, Liverpool and Stoke away plus Arsenal and Man U at home. Personally I think out title hopes rest in these games. If we can get 8-10 in these 5 we will be close, very close, very very close to Leicester goin in to final day.

 

[Gbspurs]

I have no idea. Certainly top 4, and in with a great chance of winning the title.

I think they are fairly realistic predictions. Draw against Arsenal and away to Stoke, lose away to Liverpool and Chelsea. One win against any of them and we'd already be improving on my prediction, but I think those are the games where we drop points.

We are more than capable of winning against Villa, Bournemouth, West Brom, Southampton, and Newcastle. United at home is a difficult one to predict, but with it being at the Lane I'm confident we can get a good result.

Ridiculous isn't it to think we got 72 under AVB and finished 5th.

 

[Hazardousman]

The eternal optimist Spurger! All seriousness I think that's a fair set of predictions, and at 2 points a game average it's about par for the course.

In a weird way losing to Chelsea could give us the advantage over Leicester on the last day, if Chelsea are within 3 points of top 4 which I think is a possibility then it almost guarantees Chelsea win v Leicester due to experience and salvaging their season, probably the best team to play Leicester for us on the final day.

I'm hoping Wednesday is a blip and last time we lost v Leicester we went on a great run. Winning Saturday could be huge..

Definitely the toughest games will be Chelsea, Liverpool and Stoke away plus Arsenal and Man U at home. Personally I think out title hopes rest in these games. If we can get 8-10 in these 5 we will be close, very close, very very close to Leicester goin in to final day.

http://www.skysports.com/football/n...-terry-hopes-leicester-win-the-premier-league

Knowing that bunch of mugs they would probably throw it just to see us not win the league, they already fucked us out of the CL once.

 

[Spurger King]

Ridiculous isn't it to think we got 72 under AVB and finished 5th.

Just proves how shit the rest of the league were that season.

 

[Franc]

Unless our entire defence slip on their arses Gerrard-style three or four times - all at the same time - I cannot see us losing to Liverpool.

 

[Spurger King]

The eternal optimist Spurger! All seriousness I think that's a fair set of predictions, and at 2 points a game average it's about par for the course.

In a weird way losing to Chelsea could give us the advantage over Leicester on the last day, if Chelsea are within 3 points of top 4 which I think is a possibility then it almost guarantees Chelsea win v Leicester due to experience and salvaging their season, probably the best team to play Leicester for us on the final day.

I'm hoping Wednesday is a blip and last time we lost v Leicester we went on a great run. Winning Saturday could be huge..

Definitely the toughest games will be Chelsea, Liverpool and Stoke away plus Arsenal and Man U at home. Personally I think out title hopes rest in these games. If we can get 8-10 in these 5 we will be close, very close, very very close to Leicester goin in to final day.

Yep. No easy games (apart from Villa, who we could get 3 points from even if we don't bother to travel to Birmingham), and some of the wins I've predicted (such as Southampton) could end up being draws or losses, but I'd be surprised if we didn't win at least another 4 games this season, given our general form, and Villa, Bournemouth, Southampton and Newcastle look the most likely candidates.

United depends on whether they can maintain some semblance of form until then, but I've not been impressed by them and would be disappointed if we dropped points at home to that lot.

For me, Chelsea and Liverpool look like the most likely losses. Tough away games much like the Spam game yesterday. Any points from those two would be a huge bonus.

 

[Larryjanta]

Win our next three and anything can happen. We'd be at least 6 clear of Arsenal, 4 ahead of City and, at most, 3 behind Leicester (though likely at least level with them).

It's best to take these things one game at a time and see where we end up.

We have a chance though, who'd have thought that at the start of the season or, indeed, the first international break

 

[RickyVilla]

Well Pardew said we would finish top 10 so I am going with that.

 

[midspur]

Think one of those draws needs to be a victory to win the title.

Starting Saturday!

 

[jezz]

Well Pardew said we would finish top 10 so I am going with that.

Well They certainly will not be top 10.
Palace fan I work with reckoned Champions League was there aim early in the season.
Looks more Championship league I reckon.

 

[talkshowhost86]

I'm almost loathed to think too much about the run-in until after tomorrow.

Tomorrow's game shapes everything for me. I know mathematically it isn't the case, but if we win tomorrow I feel we're leading the title race, whereas if we lose tomorrow we're in a battle for 4th.

I just cannot get that feeling out of my head.

If we draw it might make my brain explode.

 

[whitesocks]

I think we need 8 wins - 78 points for the title.
I think Leicester deserve the title, but one game at a time and all that,
and the first total we need is the one that puts us clear of 5th place.

We do deserve CL footy and we need to show the traditional CL teams that we can beat them...
starting Saturday.

 

[Cheltenham Spur]

If the OP is right (and to be honest they look like realistic projections) and we get 20 points and beat Man United, they would need to win the rest of their games to finish level on points.

I can't see that happening.

 

[homer hotspur]

Europa League is going to be a big factor in all this, I think. It just can't be taken out of the equation. Arsenal are basically already out of Europe ( still in the FA Cup, but that's not really the same problem) and Leicester just have the 10 league games.

 

[Neon_Knight_]

And where do you think 74 puts us? Title, 2nd, or third?

Pellegrini has been quoted saying 9 wins (i.e. finsihing on 74 points) will be enough for Man City to win the title.