16 points enough?

[spox]

To fill a dull hour on Sunday night I filled in the BBC results predictor for the rest of the season. I tried to be realistic across all the results but on the basis of our recent form took a fairly positive view of how I thought we'd fair.

I had us beating, Newcastle, West Brom, Man City and West Ham all at home. Drawing with Everton, Blackburn, Villa, and Liverpool (all away) and losing to Chelsea and Man Utd. That would see us finish on 48pts. That points return (1.6pts per game) is also very close to what Harry has achieved to-date (1.5pts per game over 20 games)

What surprised me was that this saw us finish 7th , ahead of West Ham courtesy of a much better goal difference. Man City were 9th on 45pts.

Its all a guess and with Spurs there is every chance we'll beat Chelsea and loose to West Brom but never-the-less it perhaps provides some hope for a positive finish to a difficult season.

 

[tylaw]

The best I can do out of the match predictor is 2nd - That's including a 20-0 win over chelsea!!

 

[Bronno]

took a fairly positive view of how I thought we'd fair

A bit of an understatement

 

[Hoowl]

I think a 7 point gap (between us and West Ham) is going to be hard to bridge, and that's assuming the other teams in contention for 7th don't go on a good run. It's not inconceivable that we could get 16 points from our remaining games. Harry guided us to 30 pts in 20 games which, if it continued, leads to a total of 47 pts. However, if West Ham continue with their season average ppg they'll end on around 53 pts. I do like your optimism thought

 

[sendô]

Win all home games, draw all away games, with the exception of Chelsea and Man Utd?

Luckily, football isn't that predictable, or else I probably wouldn't bother watching.

It's more likely you'll draw or lose the ones you think you'll win, and win or lose the ones you think you'll draw, and maybe get a point from the other two if you're lucky.

That's football.

 

[Bronno]

Such a tough set of fixtures, I think we'll get maybe 9-10 points from that. 12 if I'm really optimistic. Should be enough though.

 

[diegooners]

we're not going going to get another 16 points im afraid. We'll draw at least one of those home games, lose to villa, everton and villa away. We'll get 11 more i reckon

 

[ginol@14]

16 points would be a right result
wont happen but it would be nice

 

[AngerManagement]

We have tough fixtures ahead, I think there is little to no chance of us mounting a challange for 7th. I would be more then happy to finish higher then 12 (and truth be told I will be satisfied with staving off relegation as this is the only thing that really matters from now until the new campagin)

 

[phil]

To fill a dull hour on Sunday night I filled in the BBC results predictor for the rest of the season. I tried to be realistic across all the results but on the basis of our recent form took a fairly positive view of how I thought we'd fair.

I had us beating, Newcastle, West Brom, Man City and West Ham all at home. Drawing with Everton, Blackburn, Villa, and Liverpool (all away) and losing to Chelsea and Man Utd. That would see us finish on 48pts. That points return (1.6pts per game) is also very close to what Harry has achieved to-date (1.5pts per game over 20 games)

What surprised me was that this saw us finish 7th , ahead of West Ham courtesy of a much better goal difference. Man City were 9th on 45pts.

Its all a guess and with Spurs there is every chance we'll beat Chelsea and loose to West Brom but never-the-less it perhaps provides some hope for a positive finish to a difficult season.

Like you I spent a dull hour (before the Sunderland game) filling in the BBC Predictor. I think I may have been a bit more pessimistic (realistic?) than you. I have us finishing 9th on 45 points with Man City and West Ham finishing on 50 points.

I predicted victories over West Ham, Man City, Newcastle and West Brom and drawing with Chelsea.

Away from home, I predicted draws at Sunderland and Blackburn but defeats at Villa, Liverpool, Everton and Utd.

As City have a superior goal difference we would probably need 51 points for 7th place. Just can't see where the additional 6 points would come from.

The poor run either side of Christmas (even more than our awful start) have probably cost us our chance of qualifying for Europe.

 

[GLUESODA]

Think the least we could get is probably 7 points, which should still get us through - but besides the WBA game at home its a tough run in, especially away.

Wet sham & City are looking good at the moment and both games could swing either way, we have a shit record against the Barcodes & Chelsea, & the away games besides Blackburn are all against top 6 teams.

12 points and sneaking 10th place would be a good & realistic achievement - but this is spurs we talking about, NOTHING is predictable

 

[cabinfever]

The best I can do out of the match predictor is 2nd - That's including a 20-0 win over chelsea!!

...and Ar5ena1s suprising 56 - 1 loss at home to West Brom (1 - 1 at half time).

 

[jimmy-jojo]

I think a 7 point gap (between us and West Ham) is going to be hard to bridge, and that's assuming the other teams in contention for 7th don't go on a good run. It's not inconceivable that we could get 16 points from our remaining games. Harry guided us to 30 pts in 20 games which, if it continued, leads to a total of 47 pts. However, if West Ham continue with their season average ppg they'll end on around 53 pts. I do like your optimism thought

West Ham have a pretty tough run-in and by my reckoning might only win another 2-3 games for the rest of the season.

 

[dannythomas]

I think everyone is taking for granted 3 points against both West Ham and Newcastle. We have a poor record against Newcastle and West Ham under Zola look a different team . Luckily I think 38 points will be enough this season and I would go for winning one and drawing one of those 2 games plus drawing with City and beating West Brom to give us 8 points and a draw at Blackburn to make it 9. That will be enough. Anything else particularly away will be a bonus. I will be worried if Harry tries to partner JD and RK in April- May !

 

[spox]

A week is a long time in football. We pick up 3 points against Villa, when I had reckoned on only 1, West Ham drop 2 points against West Brom. My predication perhaps doesn't look quite so optimistic!

The game against West Ham is clearly key. If we win that then I think we are right in there. We are the form team of those around us at present. A settled side and some decent performances from players like BAE and Bent (who have not always shone) bodes quite well. Chelsea will be an interesting test.

You could argue that Uefa Cup is a marginal benefit but it would be an achievement given our start and would maintain positive momentum. Critical that we have a settled, fairly quiet summer this year with just a couple of quality additions and no major departures.

Keep the faith.

 

[AngerManagement]

A week is a long time in football. We pick up 3 points against Villa, when I had reckoned on only 1, West Ham drop 2 points against West Brom. My predication perhaps doesn't look quite so optimistic!

The game against West Ham is clearly key. If we win that then I think we are right in there. We are the form team of those around us at present. A settled side and some decent performances from players like BAE and Bent (who have not always shone) bodes quite well. Chelsea will be an interesting test.

You could argue that Uefa Cup is a marginal benefit but it would be an achievement given our start and would maintain positive momentum. Critical that we have a settled, fairly quiet summer this year with just a couple of quality additions and no major departures.

Keep the faith.

would be an amazing turn around

 

[freeeki]

Yup, a couple of fuck ups from the Hammers and a few good Spurs wins and 7th is very achievable.

We're only 11th because of goal difference, technically we're joint 10th. That's not far behind.

 

[AngerManagement]

In all honesty, while it might be fun to try and predict what will happen... this year more then ever the league is totally unpredictable and trying to second guess any of the teams is largely a futile exercise.

A good result here or a bad result there could have major swings on the look of the table week in week out. Just 2 games ago we could easily have been 19th, Beat Chelsea and we will be aiming for the stars again (although it will be interesting to read the threads on here if we lose)

 

[AllSeeingEye]

The stupid thing about the Hammers is that they don't even look like they are trying sometimes.

That game against West Brom was dogshit and even though they hardly gave it anything West Brom still couldn't find a way past their defence. One of the most boring matches I've ever watched. Although I'll admit I was peeved at Tony Mowbray for not sticking Roman Bednar on a little earlier to help Fortune when they looked like they could nick one.

If WBA hadn't gifted them another point we could have had a little more hope. We have to hope now that we win two more games than West Ham do and then the spot is ours.

Not going to be easy IMO.

 

[shakus]

The stupid thing about the Hammers is that they don't even look like they are trying sometimes.

That game against West Brom was dogshit and even though they hardly gave it anything West Brom still couldn't find a way past their defence. One of the most boring matches I've ever watched. Although I'll admit I was peeved at Tony Mowbray for not sticking Roman Bednar on a little earlier to help Fortune when they looked like they could nick one.

If WBA hadn't gifted them another point we could have had a little more hope. We have to hope now that we win two more games than West Ham do and then the spot is ours.

Not going to be easy IMO.

I was concerned that you would watch the WHU game,it must have been painful, the WBA fans prior to the game were miffed that they had 4 half decent players on the bench. Mowbray always errs on the side of caution.

Don't forget Spammers have got a growing injury list, just at the wrong moment, with Collison & Upson out their chance of continuity dwindles, which Zola thrives on. It will take them a while to get their groove back.

In terms of us we can just hope that we finally gain some momentum or even some kind of decent run in form and not drop the ball, our future is well within our hands. Keane & Palacious have made one hell of a difference to our play, so I'm optimistic that we'll finish 7th or 8th.