Champions League - 2016/17

[thinktank]

Had to do it. COYS!!

 

[whitestreak]

In all the"excitement" of hoping that Leics lose it slipped under the radar that we have sealed CL qualification...Unless Man u score about 25 goals in the next 3!

 

[audrius8]

What if Man City wins CL or Liverpool wins EL? Top 4 still gets CL?

 

[thinktank]

What if Man City wins CL or Liverpool wins EL? Top 4 still gets CL?

If they both finish outside Top 4, then 4th becomes an EL spot. However, since we cannot finish below United, if City do end up in 5th, it would mean that we would be in the Top 3.

We're in.

 

[TH1239]

While it is definitely nice to be guaranteed 4th place, it is beyond imperative that we finish in the top 3. If we somehow finish 4th, we'll have to go through the qualifiers in August with a squad that has 10 players off at the Euros/Copa America, several of whom have had very little time off in the last 18 months. It also means Levy cannot be assured of an additional 30+ million pounds of incoming revenue, and as we saw the last time we got CL, that had an impact on our ability to spend in the transfer market.

Luckily, Arsenal play City next week, so barring a collapse from us (loss at Chelsea, loss to Southampton and draw at Newcastle), we should finish 3rd at least, which would be a really important achievement that will set us up for a good summer transfer wise and mean group qualification assured.

 

[chrissivad]

What if Man City wins CL or Liverpool wins EL? Top 4 still gets CL?

ManCity would have to win and finish out site top 4, and Liverpool win the Europa for the 4th place team to miss out

In all the"excitement" of hoping that Leics lose it slipped under the radar that we have sealed CL qualification...Unless Man u score about 25 goals in the next 3!

We would have to lose all 3 games, so that deficit would decrease depending on our results
If we lost 1-0 in all 3 it would be 25
But i cant see us losing the last 3

 

[thinktank]

While it is definitely nice to be guaranteed 4th place, it is beyond imperative that we finish in the top 3. If we somehow finish 4th, we'll have to go through the qualifiers in August with a squad that has 10 players off at the Euros/Copa America, several of whom have had very little time off in the last 18 months. It also means Levy cannot be assured of an additional 30+ million pounds of incoming revenue, and as we saw the last time we got CL, that had an impact on our ability to spend in the transfer market.

Luckily, Arsenal play City next week, so barring a collapse from us (loss at Chelsea, loss to Southampton and draw at Newcastle), we should finish 3rd at least, which would be a really important achievement that will set us up for a good summer transfer wise and mean group qualification assured.

We should get a win out of our last 3 tbf. Hope we finish strong and positive.

 

[whitestreak]

city lose today and arsenal lose v city............... means 1 point is enough for 2nd

 

[thinktank]

city lose today and arsenal lose v city............... means 1 point is enough for 2nd

And Scum game is huge for City now so it's looking in our favour.

 

[Spurger King]

Can't wait! We lit the competition up the last time we were in it, so let's hope we can do it again.

I'm just desperate for us to finish 2nd in the league first. All three of our remaining games are likely to be tough. Chelsea (small time vindictive ****s), Southampton (in good form), and Newcastle (probably fighting to stay up). Until we guarantee automatic qualification I won't really be able to appreciate how exciting it's going to be next season.

 

[Timberwolf]

Since City lost we only need a point (barring a ridiculous goal difference swing) to secure top 3. We're in the group stages, boys!!

 

[spurs9]

While it is definitely nice to be guaranteed 4th place, it is beyond imperative that we finish in the top 3. If we somehow finish 4th, we'll have to go through the qualifiers in August with a squad that has 10 players off at the Euros/Copa America, several of whom have had very little time off in the last 18 months. It also means Levy cannot be assured of an additional 30+ million pounds of incoming revenue, and as we saw the last time we got CL, that had an impact on our ability to spend in the transfer market.

Luckily, Arsenal play City next week, so barring a collapse from us (loss at Chelsea, loss to Southampton and draw at Newcastle), we should finish 3rd at least, which would be a really important achievement that will set us up for a good summer transfer wise and mean group qualification assured.

We only need to get 1 point in the next 3 games to guarantee 3rd (unless Arsenal eliminate the 14 goal difference in 1 game (v Villa) and draw v City).

 

[CrazyConrad]

Since City lost we only need a point (barring a ridiculous goal difference swing) to secure top 3. We're in the group stages, boys!!

Not exactly...

We lose all remaining games and end on 69.

City win rest and end on 70 with scum winning one and losing one ending on 70.

Edit: brain gone into freezmode. You did mention the 1 point we needed so never mind me

 

[Timberwolf]

Not exactly...

We lose all remaining games and end on 69.

City win rest and end on 70 with scum winning one and losing one ending on 70.

Edit: brain gone into freezmode. You did mention the 1 point we needed so never mind me

Too true, and it's probably stupid of me to get ahead of myself, particularly as a Spurs fan, but I refuse to believe we won't get a single point from our last 3 given how hard to beat we've been this season.

 

[edson]

 

[Saoirse]

Just had a look at the various permutations for seedings in the group stage next year. Assuming we don't win the league, we'll either be second or third seeds. That makes a massive difference because under the new seeding system which puts major league champions in Pot 1, Pot 2 is actually the pot with the toughest teams overall which you therefore want to be in, whereas Pot 3 can get you a group of death rather easily. It's more likely that we'll be in Pot 3, but some surprising results around European leagues in the last couple of weeks actually open up the possibility of us getting into Pot 2.

There are three teams that will definitely be in the group stage, won't make Pot 1 but will get into Pot 2 ahead of us due to superior UEFA coefficients - Bourissia Dortmund, Bayern Leverkusen and FC Basel. Meanwhile, there will also be at least two other sides ahead of us who we are just waiting to confirm the identity of - at least one out of Barcalona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid (2 of them can reach Pot 1 if one wins the Spanish League and another the Champions League, leaving whichever wins nothing in Pot 2) and whoever gets the final Top 3 spot in England out of Arsenal and Man City. That leaves three open spaces in the pot, and we need at most 2 teams above us in the UEFA coefficient to qualify and not be seeded into Pot 1 by virtue of their league or Champions League performances in order to take one of those spots. Therefore, out of the following four scenarios, we need three to occur in order to reach Pot 2:

*Manchester City to lose in the play-off

* Porto to lose their play-off.

*Shakhtar Donetsk to lose in the qualifier or playoff.

*Liverpool to beat Sevilla in the Europa League final.

Altogether fairly unlikely, but far from impossible. Trust UEFA to invent a system where our fate in the Champions League may be dependent, of all clubs, on the performances of Liverpool and West Ham. There's also the possibility that sides we need to lose their qualifier or play-off draw each other, ensuring that one wins, which when we need so many of these to go in our favour probably isn't helpful. I'll update this at the end of the season to see if it's still possible and what we need to happen in the qualifiers and playoffs if so, but for now you can claim a legitimate interest in Portuguese title deciders or the Race for 2nd Place in Russia, featuring David Bentley's former club FC Rostov.

EDIT 03/05/16: I hadn't realised the Ukranian League had finished early, with 2 games less played than planned, due to the expulsion of Metalurh Zaporizhya. Therefore Shakhtar Donetsk are confirmed as 2nd place, and we simply want them to go out before the group stage.

EDIT: 04/05/16: It's a Madrid Derby in the Champions League Final, which is probably the best result for us. Now we just need to make sure neither of them does the League and UCL double. As a minor downside however, it removes the slight possibility of the Europa League winner not making the Champions League: therefore we need that to be won by a side below us on the coefficient, I.E. whoever makes the final out of the Liverpool-Villarreal tie. Shakhtar is bad news for us but they are in the qualifier anyway so it's not a double-whammy. Sevilla is a disaster, so for anyone planning to watch we want Shakhtar to beat them tomorrow night.

EDIT: 05/05/16: Updated to account for Europa League semi-final results. We want Liverpool to defeat Sevilla in the final.

EDIT: 17/05/16. Sorry for lack of updates, been a little busier and not got round to it. This still doesn't look too likely: we're going to be reliant at least on a couple of upsets in the play-off round to pull it off.

 

[dickieven]

Champions League in our last season at the Lane. What a send off we will give it!

 

[guy]

Just had a look at the various permutations for seedings in the group stage next year. Assuming we don't win the league, we'll either be second or third seeds. That makes a massive difference because under the new seeding system which puts major league champions in Pot 1, Pot 2 is actually the pot with the toughest teams overall which you therefore want to be in, whereas Pot 3 can get you a group of death rather easily. It's more likely that we'll be in Pot 3, but some surprising results around European leagues in the last couple of weeks actually open up the possibility of us getting into Pot 2.

There are three teams that will definitely be in the group stage, won't make Pot 1 but will get into Pot 2 ahead of us due to superior UEFA coefficients - Bourissia Dortmund, Bayern Leverkusen and FC Basel. Meanwhile, there will also be at least two other sides ahead of us who we are just waiting to confirm the identity of - at least one out of Barcalona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid (2 of them can reach Pot 1 if one wins the Spanish League and another the Champions League, leaving whichever wins nothing in Pot 2) and whoever gets the final Top 3 spot in England out of Arsenal and Man City. That leaves three open spaces in the pot, and we need at most 2 teams above us in the UEFA coefficient to qualify and not be seeded into Pot 1 by virtue of their league or Champions League performances in order to take one of those spots. Therefore, out of the following nine scenarios, we need seven to occur in order to reach Pot 2:

*Either Atletico Madrid or Real Madrid to win the Champions League, whilst either whichever of the two doesn't or Barcelona wins La Liga (This would mean both the UCL winning Spanish team and the La Liga winner would go to Pot 1, freeing up a Pot 2 space) OR Man City to win the Champions League whilst coming 3rd in the Premier League (Again, freeing up a space whoever comes 3rd in the EPL will otherwise take).

*Benfica to win the Portugese League (This would put them in Pot 1, whereas if they come 2nd Sporting Lisbon as champions go into Pot 1 despite have a lower coefficient than us whereas Benfica go into Pot 2 ahead of us).

*The 4th place team in England to lose the Play-Off, OR West Ham United to come 4th (All contenders bar West Ham are ahead of us on coefficient, so them failing to qualify stops them taking a space. The best scenario here is West Ham coming 4th and winning the Play-Off, so that our seeding is unaffected and the Premier League's coefficient isn't damaged risking us eventually losing our 4th Champions League place to Serie A.)

*Schalke to either finish outside the top 4 in the Bundesliga, or lose their play-off.

*Zenit St. Petersburg to either finish outside the top 2 in the Russian League, or to lose their qualifier or play-off match.

* Porto to lose their play-off.

*Napoli to fall to 3rd in Serie A, and then lose their play-off.

*Shakhtar Donetsk to lose their qualifier or play-off. OR Shakhtar to make up four-point gap in two games on Dymano Kyiv to win the Ukranian League whilst either Bayern Munich or the Spanish Champions win the Champions League (a top-7 league champion winning the Champions League would put the Champions of the 8th ranked nation - Ukraine - into Pot 1)

*Liverpool or Villarreal to win the Europa League. OR if Shakhtar or Sevilla win the Europa League, for Manchester City to win the Champions League whilst coming 4th or lower in the Premier League, putting the Europa League winners into a play-off, and them subsequently losing that play-off.

Altogether fairly unlikely, but far from impossible. Trust UEFA to invent a system where our fate in the Champions League may be dependent, of all clubs, on the performances of Liverpool and West Ham. There's also the possibility that sides we need to lose their qualifier or play-off draw each other, ensuring that one wins, which when we need so many of these to go in our favour probably isn't helpful. I'll update this at the end of the season to see if it's still possible and what we need to happen in the qualifiers and playoffs if so, but for now you can claim a legitimate interest in Portugese title deciders or the Race for 2nd Place in Russia, featuring David Bentley's former club FC Rostov.

Thanks for this, So we're nailed on for pot 3 then basically!

So who can we expect to be in pot 2? Leverkusen, bvb, one of the Madrids, benfica, who else?

We're going to have to beat these teams (or more accurately finish above them) to get out of the group, assuming the pot1 entrant in our group finishes top 2

 

[yido_number1]

Champions League in our last season at the Lane. What a send off we will give it!

I think someone said there were talks for our Champions League games to be played in Wembley due to the Demo on the ground. I'm sure that was posted on here somewhere and by no means first hand info. Would be a shame not to be at the lane though!

 

[THFCSPURS19]

Just had a look at the various permutations for seedings in the group stage next year. Assuming we don't win the league, we'll either be second or third seeds. That makes a massive difference because under the new seeding system which puts major league champions in Pot 1, Pot 2 is actually the pot with the toughest teams overall which you therefore want to be in, whereas Pot 3 can get you a group of death rather easily. It's more likely that we'll be in Pot 3, but some surprising results around European leagues in the last couple of weeks actually open up the possibility of us getting into Pot 2.

There are three teams that will definitely be in the group stage, won't make Pot 1 but will get into Pot 2 ahead of us due to superior UEFA coefficients - Bourissia Dortmund, Bayern Leverkusen and FC Basel. Meanwhile, there will also be at least two other sides ahead of us who we are just waiting to confirm the identity of - at least one out of Barcalona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid (2 of them can reach Pot 1 if one wins the Spanish League and another the Champions League, leaving whichever wins nothing in Pot 2) and whoever gets the final Top 3 spot in England out of Arsenal and Man City. That leaves three open spaces in the pot, and we need at most 2 teams above us in the UEFA coefficient to qualify and not be seeded into Pot 1 by virtue of their league or Champions League performances in order to take one of those spots. Therefore, out of the following nine scenarios, we need seven to occur in order to reach Pot 2:

*Either Atletico Madrid or Real Madrid to win the Champions League, whilst either whichever of the two doesn't or Barcelona wins La Liga (This would mean both the UCL winning Spanish team and the La Liga winner would go to Pot 1, freeing up a Pot 2 space) OR Man City to win the Champions League whilst coming 3rd in the Premier League (Again, freeing up a space whoever comes 3rd in the EPL will otherwise take).

*Benfica to win the Portugese League (This would put them in Pot 1, whereas if they come 2nd Sporting Lisbon as champions go into Pot 1 despite have a lower coefficient than us whereas Benfica go into Pot 2 ahead of us).

*The 4th place team in England to lose the Play-Off, OR West Ham United to come 4th (All contenders bar West Ham are ahead of us on coefficient, so them failing to qualify stops them taking a space. The best scenario here is West Ham coming 4th and winning the Play-Off, so that our seeding is unaffected and the Premier League's coefficient isn't damaged risking us eventually losing our 4th Champions League place to Serie A.)

*Schalke to either finish outside the top 4 in the Bundesliga, or lose their play-off.

*Zenit St. Petersburg to either finish outside the top 2 in the Russian League, or to lose their qualifier or play-off match.

* Porto to lose their play-off.

*Napoli to fall to 3rd in Serie A, and then lose their play-off.

*Shakhtar Donetsk to lose their qualifier or play-off. OR Shakhtar to make up four-point gap in two games on Dymano Kyiv to win the Ukranian League whilst either Bayern Munich or the Spanish Champions win the Champions League (a top-7 league champion winning the Champions League would put the Champions of the 8th ranked nation - Ukraine - into Pot 1)

*Liverpool or Villarreal to win the Europa League. OR if Shakhtar or Sevilla win the Europa League, for Manchester City to win the Champions League whilst coming 4th or lower in the Premier League, putting the Europa League winners into a play-off, and them subsequently losing that play-off.

Altogether fairly unlikely, but far from impossible. Trust UEFA to invent a system where our fate in the Champions League may be dependent, of all clubs, on the performances of Liverpool and West Ham. There's also the possibility that sides we need to lose their qualifier or play-off draw each other, ensuring that one wins, which when we need so many of these to go in our favour probably isn't helpful. I'll update this at the end of the season to see if it's still possible and what we need to happen in the qualifiers and playoffs if so, but for now you can claim a legitimate interest in Portugese title deciders or the Race for 2nd Place in Russia, featuring David Bentley's former club FC Rostov.

Please tell me you didn't spend ages on this, as someone already wrote a long article about it :

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnatio...enham-fans-should-root-for-during-the-seasons