Champions League - 2017/18

noggen

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At Norwegian television they said it wouldn't count that much becoming first or second anymore, because they've started with seeding the teams first knock-out round after the group stages. Is that true?
 

coys200

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So basically if we beat Apoel and avoid losing to Dortmund by 2 goals we are Defo qualified.Would be great to win group but don’t think makes too much difference.Will likely be some class teams that finish runner up.But at least we know know we can compete with the best.Should be quite a ride.
 

chavkev

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As things stand, with four English clubs and Real Madrid in first place, we could only play three clubs in a hypothetical second placed finish. Those clubs are - Paris st Germain, Barcelona and Besiktas.
 

Giovanni

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We really have to push on and try win the group here if we are serious about going far in the comp. Looks as though we will only be left with besiktas as a decent option otherwise.
Things can change of course.
 

Jimmypearce7

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We are 100/1 to qualify from group, RM you cant bet on (on most sites) because certain they will qualify and yet Dortmund are 6/1 to qualify.
Bookmakers cautious but how do they expect to take any bets at those odds?
 

Saoirse

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We are 100/1 to qualify from group, RM you cant bet on (on most sites) because certain they will qualify and yet Dortmund are 6/1 to qualify.
Bookmakers cautious but how do they expect to take any bets at those odds?
The Champions League is so popular to bet on that they can get away with offering awful value, especially where English teams are concerned. It's fine to bet on for fun of course but if you're serious about turning a profit you want to stay the hell away.
 

Everlasting Seconds

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Is there any real value at this point to try to calculate which team we'll face in the next round?
I'll be in Italy at that point, so I'm hoping for an Italian opponent, but I can't be arsed to try an calculate the probability with half the groups only having played two matches.
 

fortworthspur

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unbelievable. I rated our chances of getting out of the group stage at 20% after the draw. Three games down and it would take a collapse to not advance now. And we get Alli back. I expected to be biting my nails during the last two matches.
 

Marty

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At Norwegian television they said it wouldn't count that much becoming first or second anymore, because they've started with seeding the teams first knock-out round after the group stages. Is that true?
The argument I'd make about finishing first or second is that it meant a lot more before UEFA introduced the pot system where the top 7 nations' champions + the holders were top seeds. Now that some of the top seeds are the title winners from e.g. Russia and Portugal, you also last season got group winners who were not as strong as some group runners up. That meant there wasn't a great deal of difference whether you finished top or second last season as the chances of a favourable draw in the second round were roughly the same.

Still want to top it of course. Would send a big statement to top a group ahead of Real and Dortmund.
 

LexingtonSpurs

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The Champions League is so popular to bet on that they can get away with offering awful value, especially where English teams are concerned. It's fine to bet on for fun of course but if you're serious about turning a profit you want to stay the hell away.
I think you have it backwards - if you are serious about betting, and not simply betting with your gut - there is value to be had where the public largely has no idea what it is doing.
 

dagraham

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That can't be right? And if it is please tell me which bookie immediately! :D.
As I suspected that’s 1/100 on, not against!

That is actually a bit stingy and they obviously have more faith than the average Spurs fan. We should qualify, but it’s still possible for it to go very wrong.
 

coys200

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Draw wise I think there’s very little in coming 1st or 2nd.Coming 1st Could Still easily draw Juve Bayern athletico.At a Guess Id say winning group chance of getting someone relative easily is about 50% and coming 2nd about 30%.
 

14/04/91

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1/100 on is nonsense. We could lose to Madrid at home & Dortmund away then be on the same points as BD with one game to go.
I'm confident we'll get through but I wouldn't put a tenner on to get a quid back, let alone a hundred!
 

Saoirse

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I think you have it backwards - if you are serious about betting, and not simply betting with your gut - there is value to be had where the public largely has no idea what it is doing.
Not really. The general betting public is honestly pretty shit whatever market you're talking about. You're much better off going for something you know about, which is less popular and therefore the bookies offer better odds on to try and entice people in.

You can look at it mathematically. Take Chelsea vs Roma tonight - Paddy Power have 8/15 Chelsea, 10/3 Roma, and 9/2 for the draw. That equates to probabilities of 65.2%, 18.2% and 23.1% respectively. That adds up to an implied 106.5% chance of there being a result, when obviously the real chance is 100%. That means in the long run you have to do far better than the bookmakers just to make your money back, let alone turn a profit. As has been mentioned above, the "To Progress" market looks very silly. But Sky Bet give Madrid a 100% chance, and then Tottenham 1/100 (99%), Dortmund 13/2 (13.3%), and APOEL 150/1 (0.7%) - a total of 213% when the real chances are 200% and therefore a profit margin of 6.5%, exactly the same as the Chelsea match. We can all see that they're taking the piss there by saying two teams are almost guaranteed but a third still has a decent chance, but they're actually taking the piss just as much with Chelsea vs Roma, it's just that it's nowhere near as obvious as the numbers aren't intuitive.

(Apologies for the statistics nerd rant!)
 
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