Champions League - 2017/18

fletch82

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Aug 23, 2015
Messages
1,551
Not really. The general betting public is honestly pretty shit whatever market you're talking about. You're much better off going for something you know about, which is less popular and therefore the bookies offer better odds on to try and entice people in.

You can look at it mathematically. Take Chelsea vs Roma tonight - Paddy Power have 8/15 Chelsea, 10/3 Roma, and 9/2 for the draw. That equates to probabilities of 65.2%, 18.2% and 23.1% respectively. That adds up to an implied 106.5% chance of there being a result, when obviously the real chance is 100%. That means in the long run you have to do far better than the bookmakers just to make your money back, let alone turn a profit. As has been mentioned above, the "To Progress" market looks very silly. But Sky Bet give Madrid a 100% chance, and then Tottenham 1/100 (99%), Dortmund 13/2 (13.3%), and APOEL 150/1 (0.7%) - a total of 213% when the real chances are 200% and therefore a profit margin of 6.5%, exactly the same as the Chelsea match. We can all see that they're taking the piss there by saying two teams are almost guaranteed but a third still has a decent chance, but they're actually taking the piss just as much with Chelsea vs Roma, it's just that it's nowhere near as obvious as the numbers aren't intuitive.

(Apologies for the statistics nerd rant!)
Eric Bristow should have read this :p
 

Pellshek

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Dec 30, 2015
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2,075
Was just thinking, a 2-leg knockout format actually really suits our team and its mentality. We make the occasional screw-up, but over 2 legs, with fine away form and home form stabilising, and the hungry attitude of our players, it seems a 2-game aggregate situation plays to our strengths whatever way the draw lays it out.
 

LexingtonSpurs

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Aug 27, 2013
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9,601
Bayern is almost certainly a given.

Juve would be the other team that would be a bad match-up, but a great draw from an excitement standpoint.
 

@Bobby__Lucky

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Aug 20, 2013
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2,241
I'm confident whoever we play now. We did the champs over two legs in the group, and I don't care what anyone says about it was just the group. I think our boys are more confident in this competition than the league. I think they beleive they can win this.
 

ravenspurs

Active Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2014
Messages
564
Bayern is almost certainly a given.

Juve would be the other team that would be a bad match-up, but a great draw from an excitement standpoint.
Assuming the draws are rigged (of course they are) there is no way we’re drawing Bayern. We could easily beat them and UEFA don’t want risk losing the entire German TV market in the round of 16. Juve and their massive fan base much the same. Expect us to draw the toughest opponent that’s not a “big club.” I’d bet on Roma or Napoli.
 
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