CL Qualification by numbers

Discussion in 'Columns' started by minesadouble, Mar 18, 2010.

  • by minesadouble, Mar 18, 2010 at 10:04 AM
  • minesadouble

    minesadouble Drove my Chevy to the Levy

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    In the 17 Premiership Seasons to date, the average number of points secured by the team in 4th place has been 67.9. Over the first 10 Seasons (92-02) the average was 68.3 and in the past 10 Seasons (99-09) the average was 67.7, so it doesn’t appear as if time is changing the average number of points achieved by 4th place much, if at all.

    However, the average hides a wide variation of 16 points between particular Seasons. The highest number of points earned by 4th was 76 (Liverpool, 07/08). The lowest was 60 (Liverpool, 03/04). Meanwhile, in 12 out of 17 Seasons, the team coming 5th has secured more than 60 points, so enough to have come 4th in 2003-2004. On average 5th place has gained 63 points since the Premiership began (thus it could be argued that only an average of 64 points is required to ‘secure’ 4th, ie. 1 point more).

    Harry apparently said that we needed 19 points before beating Blackburn, so 16 more at the time of writing this, which would give us a final total of 68 points. That looks correct. Since 1995, no team coming 5th has got more than 66 points. Statistically we’d be very unfortunate not to come 4th with 68 points.

    We have 52 points with 9 games left: Stoke, Sunderland, Man U, Man C and Burnley away, and Portsmouth, Arsenal, Chelsea and Bolton at home. By far the easiest way for us to secure the 16 points necessary is to win 5 out of 9 games. If we could win at Stoke, Sunderland and Burnley and beat Portsmouth and Bolton, we would only require a single draw from the other four games.

    Wins are crucial. Even if we managed to go undefeated and draw all 9 games left, we would still fall 7 points short of the target. Even 4 wins would leave us needing to draw 4 others and only lose 1 match to finish on 68. While 3 wins and 6 draws would earn us 15 points and even that unlikely, unbeaten run would leave us only on 67 points.

    So all the numbers boil down to this. If we win 5 out of 9 matches, we’ll come 4th. If we win 4 out of 9 matches, we have a chance. If we fail to win 4 matches, we won’t achieve CL qualification.
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Columns' started by minesadouble, Mar 18, 2010.

  1. davidmatzdorf
    I've read the original post twice and I can't see where it says that. And it isn't true anyway. There is not "generally a large gap between 4th and 5th", any more so than between any other two places. Someone asked that question a few months ago and I checked.
  2. minesadouble
    One similar statistic that isn't in the original post is this: since the advent of the 20 team, Premiership, 67 points has always been enough to finish 4th (occasionally 3rd), because no club finishing 5th has ever accumulated more than 66 points.[/quote]

    David, I think that in 93/94 Leeds in 5th place got 70 points and in 94/95 'unlucky' Leeds in 5th place got 73 points ! On both those occasions the gap between 4th and 5th was a single point. Since then the highest tally by 5th was 66 points in 00/01 and 01/02.
  3. minesadouble
    Johnny, I didn't say there would be a large gap between 4th and 5th. Sometimes there is: ie. 72 v 63 last year, 76 v 65 the year before. But recently (and most infamously) there was a 2 pnts gap between Arsenal's 67 and Spurs 65 in 05/06 and some quite close (3 pnts and less) Seasons in the late 90s. I think we all know that this Season is very likely to go to the wire for 4th, with possibly 2-3 clubs going into the last fixture with a chance (and only then will we know just how important the 9-1 v Wigan might have been !)
  4. Boaman
    Is that because there were 22 teams in the league those days?
  5. minesadouble
    Boaman / David, you're both right. I'm a bozo ! I'd forgotten the PL started with 22 clubs not 20. That's what comes with focussing only at the top of the table ! Altitude sickness !
  6. lilywhitecurtis
    Given the fact that this year four teams are competing for one spot, and the amount of points dropped by all four I reckon it could be as low as 65
  7. jonnyrotten
    Sorry, you didn't say that at all did you! The average gap of 5 points between 4th and 5th is just that, an average. I wonder if the next few years will see that average points gap fall with more competition for the hallowed final champs league spot.
  8. Yidoinoz
    What????????
  9. Yakflange
  10. jamieee

    Damn I dont like my results we finished in 6th place just a point behind Liverpool and Aston Villa (both on 68 points), Our goal difference was much better then them so if we can find 1 more point from somewhere it will be Champions League here we come !!! :whistle:
  11. jenko
    The article is good but we forget all the other team can set a target of 69 pts and realistically think they can acheive that target. Liverpool, I think, will up they're game and start pulling results out of nowhere because thats what separates the CL teams from the rest. Man City have the advantage as well of big player mentality so I still think we will come close but ultimately fail to get 4th. If we win against stoke away and Sunderland away then I will change that view but i'm predicting we won't (and deep down you all agree with that bit).
  12. davidmatzdorf
    I'm sure they all will, but they won't all get it, not unless there's then about a 12-15 point gap back to the 8th placed team. It's the nature of the balanced schedule. These huge gaps in the table are remarkably rare and there is considerable consistency in the points totals that correspond to the individual finishing places.

    One or perhaps two of the four teams will show improved form and the other two or three will probably show worse form. All four teams are presently on course for about 65-68 points. The chances of all four suddenly improving their form are minimal, the more so because several of the four teams play each other.
  13. minesadouble
    Today's win against Stoke was hair-raising but I don't think its importance can be overstated. The talent, grit and nerve of the likes of Modric, Krancjar and Gudjohnson today was hugely impressive (none of those players has a World Cup this summer to deflect their concentration). We have 2 out of 6 wins required from our final 10 games (Blackburn and Stoke). We need to win 4 more out of 8.
  14. davidmatzdorf
    For the first time all season, there is daylight between 4th and 5th. We have the most points, the best points per game and the best goal difference of all four contenders. It's now ours to lose, despite Man City's games in hand.
  15. minesadouble
    Liverpool have 7 games left after losing today: Sunderland, Fulham, West Ham and Chelsea at home, and Birmingham, Burnley and Hull away. I think a record of 5-1-1 is highly optimistic (for them) but that's 16 points and a total of 67.
    Villa have 9 games left: Sunderland, Everton, Birmingham and Blackburn home, and Chelsea, Bolton, Portsmouth, Hull and Man City away. Their crunch match with City is the Saturday before our game with City on the final Wednesday. IF Villa take 18 points out of 27 (2 a game, higher than their ratio so far) they'd end on 68 points. I can't see Villa ending up with more than 68 points, more likely 65-67.
    City have 9 games left after today. Everton, Wigan, Birmingham, Man Utd, Villa and Spurs at home, Burnley, Arsenal and West Ham away.
    People have commented on our difficult run-in but City's looks just as tricky, other than 6 out of 9 games are at home. I think they'll draw too many of them to end up with more than 68 points tops. But I do consider them to be our main threat on current form (that was as big a win at Fulham for them as yesterday's at Stoke for us).
    So as long as we can take 13 points out of 24 (8 games) and finish on 68, and we keep our goal difference advantage, we have every chance of finishing 4th.
    As David says above, it's ours to lose. We still have City to play. Our destiny is in our hands and I would rather be in our position than the others.
  16. Bails
    My predictions from 4 games ago made it look like it would finish liverpool 72, villa 68, city 65, everton 63 and spurs 61. I really was pessimitic with my predictions though as 'worse case scenarios'. We are currently 2 points better off, liverpool 2 down, city level (due to unexpected chelsea win), villa 4 down, everton 1 down. This does mean that we only have to get 3 more to beat my original spurs tally in 7 games :). Liverpool can now only get a maximum of the original 72 and i really dont see us in 8th near the end.
    I have a feeling that we will do it, based on the averages only 10 points from 7 is needed, to me this is very doable but i think unfortunalty more is needed. We can still get 76 points (overall 2 points per game) which i always think is the benchmark of a champions league team. As on average win all home games and draw away games.
    I just hope come august/september we win the champions league qualifiying game when we get there, otherwise surely that will be the most terrible situation if we repeat the Everton team that then got knocked out of all europe in 4 games despite having champions league in their sights
  17. gajg102
    Biggest Threat
    I now believe Liverpool to be the biggest threat and will win all their remaining games bar the Chelsea game which I have as a draw putting them on 70 points. Albeit this is a Best Case Scenario for Liverpool and I am hoping for UEFA cup distractions they will up their game leading into the end of the season.

    Summary
    Assuming we win other games (a must for CL qualification), we need to get 6 points from Arsenal(h), Man U (a), Chelsea(h) and Man City(a) for fourth place. Checking all the permutations, I believe this can only come from 2 wins against Arse, Scum and Citeh. A big ask, but if we can pull it off we will be in a well deserved 4th place!

    Other Clubs
    Man City = used to be my biggest perceived threat but recent inconsistenst performances has put them close to our total of 68 points
    Aston Villa are losing it, especially after chelsea result. 66 points
    Everton = dark horse but still too far behind, next 3 games will decide (incl. AV (a), Blackburn (a))
  18. davidmatzdorf
    gajg102's results are very unlikely to occur, because they would have Villa in 7th place on 66 points and Everton also close to that total in 8th. It has never happened and couldn't happen unless there were (say) a 10-15 point gap between 7th and 9th places.

    The maximum ever to finish 7th was 61 points and the average is 56. The maximum ever to finish 8th was also 61 points and the average is 54.

    At least two of the five clubs mentioned will have a decline in form. gajg102's results assume that all five clubs will improve their season's form and requires Liverpool to take 19 points from their remaining 21 - not something that is suggested by their erratic progress all season to date.
  19. gajg102
    Good points David I have not considered the points taken off each other in calculations, so points may be less then those predicted. But going back to my main point Liverpool have a relatively easy run in, apart from birmingham and Chelsea all are against lower half opposition. Coupled with there whole setup being reliant on CL quali, they will be despearate to achieve. I can only hope the pressure gets to them and they slip up along the way.
  20. minesadouble
    Our 2-1 win over Arsenal tonight makes up for the defeat at Sunderland. We now have 61 and City have 62, both with 5 games (15 points) to play for. We both have equally difficult run-ins including our match up at Eastlands. Liverpool could - just - nip past both of us but that is getting unlikely. IF we can take 6 points from Bolton (h) and Burnley(a) then 4 more from Chelsea, Man U and Man C would give us 71 which SHOULD be enough. Really we only need to continue to take our ratio this Season of 2 pnts out of 3 to finish 4th. A final total of 68-70 might well be enough, depending on City's own performances (we can each only take a maximum 13 points out of the final 15).

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