Liverpool have 7 games left after losing today: Sunderland, Fulham, West Ham and Chelsea at home, and Birmingham, Burnley and Hull away. I think a record of 5-1-1 is highly optimistic (for them) but that's 16 points and a total of 67.

Villa have 9 games left: Sunderland, Everton, Birmingham and Blackburn home, and Chelsea, Bolton, Portsmouth, Hull and Man City away. Their crunch match with City is the Saturday before our game with City on the final Wednesday. IF Villa take 18 points out of 27 (2 a game, higher than their ratio so far) they'd end on 68 points. I can't see Villa ending up with more than 68 points, more likely 65-67.

City have 9 games left after today. Everton, Wigan, Birmingham, Man Utd, Villa and Spurs at home, Burnley, Arsenal and West Ham away.

People have commented on our difficult run-in but City's looks just as tricky, other than 6 out of 9 games are at home. I think they'll draw too many of them to end up with more than 68 points tops. But I do consider them to be our main threat on current form (that was as big a win at Fulham for them as yesterday's at Stoke for us).

So as long as we can take 13 points out of 24 (8 games) and finish on 68, and we keep our goal difference advantage, we have every chance of finishing 4th.

As David says above, it's ours to lose. We still have City to play. Our destiny is in our hands and I would rather be in our position than the others.