CL Qualification by numbers

Discussion in 'Columns' started by minesadouble, Mar 18, 2010.

  • by minesadouble, Mar 18, 2010 at 10:04 AM
  • minesadouble

    minesadouble Drove my Chevy to the Levy

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    In the 17 Premiership Seasons to date, the average number of points secured by the team in 4th place has been 67.9. Over the first 10 Seasons (92-02) the average was 68.3 and in the past 10 Seasons (99-09) the average was 67.7, so it doesn’t appear as if time is changing the average number of points achieved by 4th place much, if at all.

    However, the average hides a wide variation of 16 points between particular Seasons. The highest number of points earned by 4th was 76 (Liverpool, 07/08). The lowest was 60 (Liverpool, 03/04). Meanwhile, in 12 out of 17 Seasons, the team coming 5th has secured more than 60 points, so enough to have come 4th in 2003-2004. On average 5th place has gained 63 points since the Premiership began (thus it could be argued that only an average of 64 points is required to ‘secure’ 4th, ie. 1 point more).

    Harry apparently said that we needed 19 points before beating Blackburn, so 16 more at the time of writing this, which would give us a final total of 68 points. That looks correct. Since 1995, no team coming 5th has got more than 66 points. Statistically we’d be very unfortunate not to come 4th with 68 points.

    We have 52 points with 9 games left: Stoke, Sunderland, Man U, Man C and Burnley away, and Portsmouth, Arsenal, Chelsea and Bolton at home. By far the easiest way for us to secure the 16 points necessary is to win 5 out of 9 games. If we could win at Stoke, Sunderland and Burnley and beat Portsmouth and Bolton, we would only require a single draw from the other four games.

    Wins are crucial. Even if we managed to go undefeated and draw all 9 games left, we would still fall 7 points short of the target. Even 4 wins would leave us needing to draw 4 others and only lose 1 match to finish on 68. While 3 wins and 6 draws would earn us 15 points and even that unlikely, unbeaten run would leave us only on 67 points.

    So all the numbers boil down to this. If we win 5 out of 9 matches, we’ll come 4th. If we win 4 out of 9 matches, we have a chance. If we fail to win 4 matches, we won’t achieve CL qualification.
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Discussion in 'Columns' started by minesadouble, Mar 18, 2010.

  1. DC_Boy
    well at least it's still in our own hands - we simply have to win the next 5 games - easy eh :)

    we really should hit the the 68 point mark now - and it will be gutting if that's not enough

    utd know that realistically they have to beat city to stay in the title race, especially given their inferior goal difference to chelsea

    what a boost for us if they can do it - hope rooney is fit for them
  2. lifeof...
    TBH. I think its just between us and Man C.. Which means we, at a minimum, need to match there points tally. For the next 3 games.(they have man u Arse and Villa) Beat them up their, and win our last game. JOB done. Or as we have CFC man U and bolton. gain plus 1point to them plus 2+ GD.. draw at city and win our last game, by a greater GD than their last game = JOB done

    That WIn against Arse has put us right back in it
  3. Bails
    Now with 4 games left for us the maths is simple
    The maximum Liverpool can get is 68
    The maximum Aston Villa can get is 70

    We are currently on 64 with a maximum of 12 points available
    that means to finish at least 6th we need to find a win and a draw (4 points) as currently we have a better GD than liverpool-Burnley and Bolton look the most likely to get 4 points from. This is assuming liverpool beat chelsea if not and they lose just a point is needed.

    To finish 5th we need to find 6 points-again bolton and burnley are most likely- this is assuming they beat Man City. If they lose or draw then we need 2/3 points less.

    To finish 4th we need to overhaul probably city. Now they can finish on a mamimum of 74 atm
    However a draw against Arsenal or villa puts them on 72 max
    If we then draw at Eastlands then there max is 70. thiss requires us to achieve 6 points (due to drae at eastlands we already will have 1) so just 2 wins over burnley and bolton are required

    i believe the bolton and burnley games will be tough but based on the numbers if we play like we did against arsenal and chelsea then we will surely win these games meaning a draw at eastlands is sufficient.

    Of course we also have man u at the weekend this is a bonus game and any point/points will aid our challenge and if city drop points against arsenal and villa it makes the eastland game less important
  4. Chimbo!
    The expected required points tally to finish 4th has been steadily increasing all season. With 4 teams still in with a shout I would think that points tally will continue to rise, as it is so competitive.

    I think the 4th placed team will amass more than 70 points, which suggests it is between Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. It is quite possible that both will win a minimum of 2 out of the last 4 games, which makes the game at Eastlands the decider. If City beat Spurs then they will probably achieve 73 points, which is a huge total.

    This is why the race for 4th is so crucial. It is not purely about being in the Champion's League because whoever does finish 4th will be best placed to invest in an improved squad, in order to close the shortening gap between the title chasers and those competing for 4th.

    I do not think the average points tally for 4th, is relevant to determining what the required points tally will be this year because it is a unique season. I do not remember there being so many competitors for one place, nor do I think there has ever been such strong competitors for 4th. Any other season, each of these teams would have finished 4th.
  5. DC_Boy
    i don't know that city can get 73 pts

    correct me if I'm wrong but i thought they had 62 ATM

    which means they can get 74 or 72 by my maths

    there are so just so many variables - i'm still avoiding the predictoer

    maybe in three days and three hours (approx) i'll have a go

    things will be a lot clearer by then

    not decided obviously but variables such as will hull have anything to play for- are west ham safe - will either be settled or a lot easier to guess
  6. Krancjar2k10
    I'm getting so nervous about all of this now. I think we'll beat Bolton and Burnley. I think we'll get a point at least against United, i believe it's our time this season. Let's hope all the praying pays off!
  7. davidmatzdorf
    The maximum that each of the four clubs can now get is:

    Spurs 76
    Man City 74
    Villa 70
    Liverpool 68

    Each club's points per game to date is as follows:

    Spurs 1.882
    Man City 1.824
    Villa 1.743
    Liverpool 1.686

    That would extrapolate out to the following final points totals:

    Spurs 71.53
    Man City 69.29
    Villa 66.23
    Liverpool 64.06

    The highest points total ever to finish 5th in the 20 team Premiership has been 66. It looks very likely that this will be exceeded this season, but it's not certain. If Man City get 4 points from 4 matches or Spurs get 2 points from 4 matches, then it very probably wouldn't be.
  8. TimJ
    I am so nervous everytime I think about this. I have the same feeling I have just before kick off when I am playing.

    I think this weekend will be very important to the confidence of us and City. Neither of us are expected to get much but if there is a a surprise result that will be a huge
    psychological advantage for the remaining games. I will be a bag of nerves this weekend.

    I still think City are slight favourites because they are home against us in, what many seem to agree, will be the crucial game.
  9. lifeof...

    TBH I disagree with this,I think we are slight favorites, as it stands now. basically we only need to get 1 more point than city over the next 2 games...we have man u away and bolton at home, they have arse away and villa at home. I can see us getting more points from this than them, which would mean, we would be 3 points clear(if 1 point gain), and most likely a plus on GD..Which would mean even if we loss to man c, we would still be 4th(on GD) with 1 game to go.

    Even if we got the same points (over the next 2 games), It would mean they must beat us, where as we will only need a draw. then the last game will be the decider, if we win, (either against city or Burnley)there is nothing they can do.
  10. DC_Boy
    i certainly think city are more of a threat than some will allow

    that's why it absolutely baffles me as to why anyone would want anything but an arsenal win tomorrow, however we do

    we need city as far behind us as possible before the eastlands game - 7 points would do me nicely
  11. lifeof...

    For me City r the only threat(see my post here for reasons why

    Sat may not be a major deciding factor( i think it wont be) 1st it is a combination of the next 2(who comes out with the most points a poss GD) depended on this will then clarify the importance of the city game, and then possible the last games....

    I feel, and think, We will be 5 points clear before the city game
  12. minesadouble

    Here is my updated take on the situation:

    Liverpool have 62 points and 2 games left (max = 68). They play Chelsea at home and Hull away. I think they will finish on 65 points, maybe 66. They now have the best goal difference of the 4th place candidates at + 28. I think they will finish 6th or 7th.

    Villa have 64 points and 2 games left (max = 70). They play Man City away and Blackburn at home. I think they will finish on 67 points, maybe 68. They have the worst goal difference of + 16 which could be important if they beat Man City and end up with 70 points.

    City have 63 points but 3 games left (max = 72). They play Villa at home, Spurs at home and West Ham away. I find their final tally hardest to predict. They could lose all three, or win all three games. I’ll go for 5 points so a final total of 68. They currently have the best goal difference of + 27.

    Spurs have 64 points and 3 games left (max = 73). We play Bolton at home, Man City away and Burnley away. Obviously Spurs, Man City and Villa cannot all get maximum points. However, Spurs could win 2 matches and still only come 5th, if we beat Bolton and Burnley but lose to Man City, if City get 7 points and have a superior goal difference to Spurs, or obviously if they get all 9 points. Spurs currently have a goal difference of + 26, 1 behind Man City.

    Therefore, the best results this weekend for me are Villa to win at City (or a draw at worst) and Chelsea to win at Liverpool. Obviously Spurs need to beat Bolton. But those three results would leave Liverpool on 62 (so max 65), Man City on 63 (so max 69), Villa on 67 (so max 70) and Spurs on 67 (so max 73).

    And if that were to happen, Spurs would only need 3 points total from City and Burnley away to be sure of 4th place (unless Villa won about 10-0 against Blackburn).
  13. minesadouble
    So there we are !
    6 wins and 2 defeats out of 8 since I wrote the original column. 52 + 18 points = 70 with 1 match to play. Fantastic achievement. With Man City on 66 it looks as though they'll end on 67 (maybe 69) so the basic maths stands, although we probably needed a couple of points more than the customary 67-68 needed historically to achieve 4th place. Maybe, just maybe, we can finish on 73 and squeak past the Goons ?
  14. DC_Boy
    as i've been saying for months city were the threat not everton )pleeeze - villa or pool - who at the start i did expect to take it

    71 pts - unbelievable - COYS
  15. davidmatzdorf
    Guess we can close this thread now ;-)
  16. Coyboy

    I've been saying for months bla bla bla. You were also saying for weeks and months how we'd blown fourth and how we hadn't signed the right players for fourth.

    You were very wrong. Totally wrong.

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