Halfway Mark Goal Difference

[E.L.Strict]

Did you know that in the last 10 seasons (upto and including 05/06):

- The team with the greatest goal difference after 19 matches has won the league on all but one occasion? (Chelsea 08/09)

- The teams with the 4 greatest goal differences have finished as the eventual top four 6 out of 10 times? (Arsenal 08/09, Chelsea 07/08, both with just one goal separating them from the 19 Game top 4, and then Arsenal twice more, having trailed the 19 game top 4 by three and four goals.)

-Before last season, the teams with the top 3 goal differences have finished in the eventual top 4 every time.


Current Goal Difference Table:

1. Tottenham P19 +18
2. City P18 +17
3. Arsenal P19 +15
4. Leicester P18 +12
--
5. Palace +7
6. Everton +7
7. United +6

So the final game to be played before the 19 game Goal DIfference table is complete is City v Leicester.

Here are some possible implications based on the above trends.

- If City win then they will be the 19GGD champions, and therefore will most likely win the league.
- A narrow win for City will keep Leicester's top 4 hopes in tact, however they will be at most 4 goals ahead of the 5th placed team, which is equal to the largest gap ever recouped to finish top 4.
- If City win by 5 or more goals then Leicester are no longer likely to finish in the top 4, with Palace or Everton the more likely contenders.
-Any win for City means that the final top 4 is almost certain to include City, Arsenal and Tottenham.


-If the match is a draw then we become the most likely to team to win the league.
-A draw also means that the top 4 is likely to be the final top 4, with no team ever having recouped a difference of 5 goals at this point to finish that high.
-A draw also means that the final top 4 is almost certain to include City, Arsenal and Tottenham

- A Leicester win by 1 or 2 goals would further consolidate the chance of the final top 4 remaining the same.
- A Leicester win by 3 goals would mean that the final top 4 would almost certainly include Arsenal, Tottenham and Leicester.
-Any Leicester win by 5 or less goals means that we will win the league.
- A Leicester win of 6 or more goals means that they will win the league.
- A Leicester win of 6 or more goals would also bring Palace and Everton back into the hunt, being just 4 goals behind Man City.


Personally I predict a 2 or 3 goal win for City, making them Champions, but also effectively sealing our top 4 place by virtue of having one of the top 3 goal differences at this halfway mark.

 

[DanielCHillier]

Very interesting stats, and all looks very positive on our behalf. However, given how crazy this season has been so far z it's difficult to make predictions based on past trends.

 

[Marty]

Beautiful stats, but I still can't take any stat that claims we will win the league seriously.

 

[Geyzer Soze]

Lol those are great stats ... sounds like this is the pivotal game of the season

 

[Mouse!]

This all means nothing, because Spurs.

 

[dvdhopeful]

I was thinking this yesterday when I saw the league, I can't remember the last time we had such a positive goal difference so early in the season and I certainly can't remember the last time we had the best GD in the league at Christmas

 

[E.L.Strict]

I forgot that Liverpool and Sunderland are still to play, but barring a 15 goal game it won't have any impact on this.

Final Halfway Mark GD Table

1. Spurs +18
2. City +17
3. Arsenal +15
4. Leicester +12
--
5. Everton +7
6. Palace +7
7. United +6

So this means that historically speaking, Spurs, City and Arsenal will almost certainly all make the top 4. As no team has finished in the top 4 after being more than 4 points off at this stage, it also suggests that Leicester will also make the top 4.

Most importantly, our superior goal difference at this stage means that we will win the league, like 90% of teams have done from our position.

Could somebody forward this stat to good ol' GlastonSpur on redcafe? I'm sure he could really get some backs up with this.

 

[Sir Henry]

I forgot that Liverpool and Sunderland are still to play, but barring a 15 goal game it won't have any impact on this.

Final Halfway Mark GD Table

1. Spurs +18
2. City +17
3. Arsenal +15
4. Leicester +12
--
5. Everton +7
6. Palace +7
7. United +6

So this means that historically speaking, Spurs, City and Arsenal will almost certainly all make the top 4. As no team has finished in the top 4 after being more than 4 points off at this stage, it also suggests that Leicester will also make the top 4.

Most importantly, our superior goal difference at this stage means that we will win the league, like 90% of teams have done from our position.

Could somebody forward this stat to good ol' GlastonSpur on redcafe? I'm sure he could really get some backs up with this.

That scares me, gets me excited, gives me a boner and gives me arse clunge all in the one go.

 

[Riandor]

Issue with this stat in isolation is that I'm not sure it is reflective.

By and large the teams with the biggest goal difference are those who have spent the most and have outpaced their rivals accordingly and have been in a position to do this year on year, monopolising the league.

This is the first time in a long time where the current top 4 scorers aren't flush with unlimited cash. As a result I would claim there is not enough statistical evidence to really support this argument this time round.

If anything, history shows that teams not usually in this position tend to get a nose bleed and drop. As such there is equally supporting evidence to suggest we will fall out of the top four ere the end.

 

[Sweech]

Issue with this stat in isolation is that I'm not sure it is reflective.

By and large the teams with the biggest goal difference are those who have spent the most and have outpaced their rivals accordingly and have been in a position to do this year on year, monopolising the league.

This is the first time in a long time where the current top 4 scorers aren't flush with unlimited cash. As a result I would claim there is not enough statistical evidence to really support this argument this time round.

If anything, history shows that teams not usually in this position tend to get a nose bleed and drop. As such there is equally supporting evidence to suggest we will fall out of the top four ere the end.

Want to show said evidence?

 

[michaelj70]

one positive happy definite Chelsea not going to win it this year

 

[Riandor]

Want to show said evidence?

2005/2006 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2006/2007 Bolton Wanderers 4th at half way point and finished: 7th
2007/2008 Usual Top 4 (With Liverpool)
2008/2009 Aston Villa 4th at half way point and finished: 6th
2009/2010 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 4th
2010/2011 Usual top 4 (Now with City instead of Liverpool)
2011/2012 Tottenham 3rd at half way point and finished: 4th
2012/2013 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2013/2014 - Everton 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2014/2015 - Southampton 4th at half way point and finished: 7th

So last 10 yrs: 8/10 years the top 4 had a team not typically top 4 material. Of those 6/8 dropped out of the top 4 by the end of the season and were ALWAYS replaced by a traditional top 4 team (With City overtaking Liverpool due to Oil money).

In each of those occasions with the possible exception of Arsenal, those top 4 outspent their rivals.

Now in each of those cases the fourth team's GD was not spectacular and usually well behind at least two of the other teams above them, so it is true that our GD this year for example is cause for optimism, but you asked for evidence to my argument that historically speaking teams not used to top 4 finish drop out of top 4 between half way point and end, there you go.

It wasn't to invalidate the original stats, just that stats in isolation don't always tell the whole story.

 

[wooderz]

But we're spurs, I predict we have a -35 GD in the second half of the season leaving us agonisingly missing out on 4th

 

[Gbspurs]

2005/2006 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2006/2007 Bolton Wanderers 4th at half way point and finished: 7th
2007/2008 Usual Top 4 (With Liverpool)
2008/2009 Aston Villa 4th at half way point and finished: 6th
2009/2010 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 4th
2010/2011 Usual top 4 (Now with City instead of Liverpool)
2011/2012 Tottenham 3rd at half way point and finished: 4th
2012/2013 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2013/2014 - Everton 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2014/2015 - Southampton 4th at half way point and finished: 7th

So last 10 yrs: 8/10 years the top 4 had a team not typically top 4 material. Of those 6/8 dropped out of the top 4 by the end of the season and were ALWAYS replaced by a traditional top 4 team (With City overtaking Liverpool due to Oil money).

In each of those occasions with the possible exception of Arsenal, those top 4 outspent their rivals.

Now in each of those cases the fourth team's GD was not spectacular and usually well behind at least two of the other teams above them, so it is true that our GD this year for example is cause for optimism, but you asked for evidence to my argument that historically speaking teams not used to top 4 finish drop out of top 4 between half way point and end, there you go.

It wasn't to invalidate the original stats, just that stats in isolation don't always tell the whole story.

Not just that but we have a habit of creating undesirable records like finishing with 72 points but not getting into top 4 despite that being enough nearly every other season or finishing 4th and still not getting into the champions league which hasn't happened before or since.

Tis the Spurs way. I fully expect us to end the season with a record goal difference and finish 8th.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

It wasn't to invalidate the original stats, just that stats in isolation don't always tell the whole story.

I agree with you. There is not historical stat than can provide any guidance on how this season will end. Multiple things about this season is way off – stats can't be applicable.

Off the top of my head:
Three (!) large teams are minorly or majorly struggling. There is always one surprise struggler, yes. But three?
League leader has only 2.0 average points per game. I do not quite remember when that was the case last with 20 teams playing.
Top individual goal scorers always play for big teams. This season, only three of ten best goal scorers belong to the traditional elite of teams.

I cannot see how we can predict anything with any kind of certainty yet.

 

[Riandor]

In 7/8 of those cases the non-traditional top 4 team dropped at least 1 position between now and the end of the season.
In 0/8 times did that team drop by more than 3 places (i.e. out of European Qual.).
In 0/8 times did that team finish higher than their place at the half way stage
In 0/8 times was there more than 1 non traditional team in the top 4 (so 2 this season is a first)

But frankly this season is bonkers, so who the feck knows....

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

Only two things I will risk a guess at, is that Leicester will end up a top 4 team, and that we need to secure a little more points per game for the remainder of the season to actually end up in top 4.

 

[Marty]

I agree with you. There is not historical stat than can provide any guidance on how this season will end. Multiple things about this season is way off – stats can't be applicable.

Off the top of my head:
Three (!) large teams are minorly or majorly struggling. There is always one surprise struggler, yes. But three?
League leader has only 2.0 average points per game. I do not quite remember when that was the case last with 20 teams playing.
Top individual goal scorers always play for big teams. This season, only three of ten best goal scorers belong to the traditional elite of teams.

I cannot see how we can predict anything with any kind of certainty yet.

98/99 was the last season the winner got less than 80 points, United won with 79. 76 is the 2.0 PPG average and only once in the 20 team league has a team won with fewer. United won with 75 in 96/97.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

98/99 was the last season the winner got less than 80 points, United won with 79. 76 is the 2.0 PPG average and only once in the 20 team league has a team won with fewer. United won with 75 in 96/97.

Right, and couple of seasons before that, sometime mid 90s, United won with less than 2.00 ppg. So basically 20 years ago.

 

[Riandor]

Only two things I will risk a guess at, is that Leicester will end up a top 4 team, and that we need to secure a little more points per game for the remainder of the season to actually end up in top 4.

Agree.
History shows that you don't drop more than 3, so by that definition Leicester would be 5th at absolute worst case.
Now yes, this season is nuts, but I think Leicester will have enough to get over the line and finish top 4.