If not the NDP where?

Discussion in 'The New Stadium' started by worcestersauce, Feb 10, 2011.

  1. SpurSince57

    SpurSince57 Well-Known Member

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    And how much is that going to cost? Not to mention the fact that the local services on that line aren't very good. (I'm not sure there are any on a Sunday!).
     
  2. Spur-of-the-moment

    Spur-of-the-moment Active Member

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    As danielneeds has pointed out, this thread is silly because it is premised on the idea that the NDP is not 'viable' for reasons other than finance. What reasons?

    Transport connections? Well, the first thing to say is that is not as much of a deal-maker/breaker as people seem to think. In any case, a site with better transport connections is going to cost more than the NDP, making financing even more difficult. The club are on record as having spent time and effort examining other possible sites, but none were as good as the NDP one.

    Don't be distracted by Levy's hints that we would have to move anyway if we didn't get Stratford. Again, ask yourself why. No, these hints were part of the PR offensive. Levy was spinning so much, he was dizzy. It was an effort to counter the argument that Spurs pulling the plug on Tottenham would have significant consequences for the local area. If, in his invented argument, we had to leave anyway, then that should not be a factor in the Stratford decision. All bullshit spin.

    Leaving aside the transport issue, which is a marginal distraction when looking at the bigger picture, the NDP is a good site. It's on the historical location; it will not alienate a substantial section of the support; it's owned freehold by the club; it allows for enabling development; and the bonus is we can continue to play while building the new stadium.

    How much of a problem is finance?

    We really don't know. Spurs managed to get together a financial package for the Stratford bid, though there are rumours that the OPLC were concerned about it, or at least that they found the West Ham financing lower risk. Perhaps it would be more difficult to assemble for the NDP, but maybe not that much more difficult? Who knows?

    All the fuss about our bid will at least have drawn attention to the need for Haringey, the Mayor's Office and central government to be as accommodating as possible, though they've done little if anything wrong so far in respect of the NDP. There's talk about a renewed attempt to get public money, but that seems unlikely. Yet, since the Stratford decision, Claire Kober has said that if Spurs commit to the borough they can work together to 'lever in initial investment', public as well as private. It can't come from Haringey, but it's not impossible and, despite all that has happened, the club and Haringey have maintained a good relationship.

    It might be the case that THFC can negotiate lower S.106 costs, but they don't amount to very much in the general scheme of things.

    One question that remains with me is why not just build the stadium and forget, for now, the rest of the development except the supermarket? It's £250m (minus the profit from the supermarket), and this amount could be financed down at Stratford. When financing gets easier, then build the hotel and flats.


    Sotm
     
  3. worcestersauce

    worcestersauce "I'm no optimist I'm just a prisoner of hope

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    The NDP is dead in the water and so not going to happen, that's what Daniel Levy said, you may not believe it and I may not believe it but more importantly Haringey Council, the mayor and anyone else that matters may not believe it and it is important that they do believe it because even if it is not dead in the water but it causes financing difficulties then the club needs to make positive moves to find other suitable sites as an alternative option even if only as a bargaining tool.
    This "silly" thread is therefore for any of the Spurs community to offer up their ideas on what sites are out there and where they are, you can take it as serious as you like or as whimsically as you like but I do believe this is a discussion that will have to be had within the club and we are just pre-empting it.

    That said do you know of any alternative options.
     
  4. drthfc

    drthfc Member

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    What about the Lane? Villa, Newcastle, Man Utd all did it and Liverpool are now talking of updating Anfield?? I appreciate that there are many problems with this and we may have to play away for a season or two but a new East and West stand, improved corporate, keeps the listed buildings and we could still develop the site adjacent but now with the supermarket and even more flats?

    Perhaps expansion of the Lane was a problem for Haringey before and they wouldn't pass such plans?? Perhaps we are in a better position to negaotiate this option than before now they know the club would have moved??

    Anyhow just a view and I'm sure someone will tell me why we can't but any site locally is likely to be a brownfield site and require land purchase and possibly CPO's resulting in a lot of money and time!
     
  5. Spur-of-the-moment

    Spur-of-the-moment Active Member

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    OK, I get your logic. Though the NDP may well be viable if adjustments are made, you think it's possible that Levy is saying it's 'dead in the water' as some kind of bargaining strategy.

    No, mate, it was just pro-Stratford spin, and it serves no earthly purpose now.

    First, we've just been through some months of this kind of thing: it's expensive, it's divisive, and it doesn't solve the problem of the NDP.

    Second, what is the issue over which Levy is bargaining? He might reduce the S.106 costs by a couple of million, but that's not going to get him anywhere significant. If he wants a central government subsidy, or some kind of public-private pump priming (whatever that might be), then he would have to commit to the NDP - it wouldn't happen if he didn't.

    As I've said, if there's any problem with the NDP, then its the financing. Looking elsewhere, to repeat, doesn't solve this problem. The club tried and it didn't succeed.

    This is why I think the thread misses the point.



    Sotm
     
  6. worcestersauce

    worcestersauce "I'm no optimist I'm just a prisoner of hope

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    Fair enough SotM you've made your point so probably not the thread for you.:)
     
  7. Spur-of-the-moment

    Spur-of-the-moment Active Member

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    That won't stop me. :wink:
     
  8. SpurSince57

    SpurSince57 Well-Known Member

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    In fact, we have no idea why Levy claimed it wasn't viable. Levy hasn't really mentioned finance at all; the only hint we've had is his claim that Arsenal received public funding (not from Islington Council, they didn't). Prior to that he hadn't asked for any financial support from Haringey. Otherwise, the only thing resembling a reason we've had is the claim that it could take 'years' for the CPOs to go through, which is cock.
     
  9. worcestersauce

    worcestersauce "I'm no optimist I'm just a prisoner of hope

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    Perhaps it has something to do with potential sponsors and how much they would be willing to stump up in one place compared to another or maybe the fact that AEG isn't interested in putting on showpiece events on what they consider the outer spiral arm of a far distant galaxy.:)
     
  10. SpurSince57

    SpurSince57 Well-Known Member

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    But then the argument ought to be, 'The partnership with AEG isn't viable if we go with the NDP'. Arsenal didn't secure naming rights for Ashburton Grove until construction had begun.
     
  11. bilburger

    bilburger eater, sleeper, excreter

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    There's a stadium in Wembley... With so many events being diverted to the Olympic Stadium, maybe there'd be room for us there.
     
  12. Spur-of-the-moment

    Spur-of-the-moment Active Member

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    Levy changed his spin from 'the NDP is not currently viable' (i.e. Stratford is a better deal) to a last-gasp declaration that it was 'dead in the water', clearly intended to deflect the criticisms of those who didn't want the area of Tottenham to lose out on the regeneration benefits of the stadium. We would be pulling out anyway, according to the spin.

    Likewise, the CPO business was another bit of spin designed to deal with the very real argument that the NDP stadium should come on line some period of time before the Stratford stadium (given no delays caused by the Olympics).

    You're right that he hasn't been directly quoted as having mentioned financing, but there have been heavy hints in the media. Though they may be partly spun, it would be surprising if the terms of the equation hadn't changed since the first announcement of the NDP, what with the greater difficulty in borrowing property development money. Of course, this doesn't make the NDP non-viable but it may require further work - work that hasn't been done since Levy's been distracted by the false idol of Stratford.


    Sotm
     
  13. Nick-TopSpursMan

    Nick-TopSpursMan Active Member

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    Wembley would be worse than Stratford would have been.

    That would be the end for me.
     
  14. SpurSince57

    SpurSince57 Well-Known Member

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    If the NDP had been announced in October 2006 any concerns the club may have over financing would be far easier to sympathise with; however, the project was announced two years later, after the banks had started collapsing.
     
  15. Spur-of-the-moment

    Spur-of-the-moment Active Member

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    Yep, you're absolutely right and it's something that has puzzled me.

    One explanation I've encountered is that difficulties in obtaining property-development finance have taken longer to filter through the system. When they were more clearly apparent, Levy decided to go ahead with the planning application (given that most of the effort and money had already been expended) in the hope that things would improve.

    All that said, I still can't believe that Levy, with his first-class Cambridge degree in economics, and Lewis, high-rolling currency trader who got his fingers burnt with Bear Sterns, would not have seen the writing on the wall. Or maybe they could, and they have estimated that a recovery in development financing is just round the corner. Who knows?

    Another explanation is that they were keeping all their options open. Buying up spare property on the NDP site would serve both staying in Tottenham and moving away; designing a stadium would also serve both these options. Given a rapidly changing and unpredictable economic and financial situation, why not keep all the options open?

    Another, perhaps more worrying, rationale is that they knew the difficulties but pushed through the stadium project alongside enabling development in order to obtain planning permission. Then they would think again. At least they would have planning permission, which could be adjusted if a decision was made to look elsewhere again.

    I think the most plausible explanation is that they were keeping all their options open and that it was worth the expenditure on designing and planning the stadium.


    Sotm
     
  16. bigturnip

    bigturnip Tottenham till I die, Stratford over my dead body

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    Maybe they were banking on getting the naming rights deal sorted by now, or they could just have been going through with planning to make the club more attractive to potential buyers.
     
  17. Monkey Bastard Hands

    Monkey Bastard Hands Large Member

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    Land economics, not just any economics! He's probably one of the most knowledgable men in football about this sort of thing...whether that's a good thing or not though i'm not sure. Maybe he's being slightly blinded by his knowledge? A less land-economics-savvy chairman might take a bigger risk not having the knowledge that Levy has, whereas Levy is holding out because he thinks/knows things won't work in the current climate.
     
  18. morpheus

    morpheus Member

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    The corner of Broad lane/Fountayne road the one way road that runs from Tottenham Hale station to Seven Sisters Station. There's an disused industrial estate there and both stations are about 10 mins walk away.
     
  19. morpheus

    morpheus Member

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    I don't think the revised plan for NDP that got planning approval is viable. The original plans were. Remember the first set of plans were for 450 affordable homes when the CABE saw the plan, they decided that was far too many and Levy had too reduce the number to 200. Now bear in mind that the homes being built on the site were essentially to offset the cost of the stadium than that is more than half the anticipated income from the sale of flats. I suspect that levy knew the revised plans were unviable even as the planning consent was being decided. He had to get planning permission for the site simply so that at least the land now has value as at the very least it can be sold to any prospective developer.
     
  20. SpurSince57

    SpurSince57 Well-Known Member

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    Back of the Prince Arthur? That's nowhere near as big as the Northumberland Park site, and I'm pretty sure it's not disused; it just looks that way. :) The club would still have to buy it, with the same hassles with landowners, get planning permission…

    That's not quite what CABE said; their objection was that the original flats would appeal mostly if not entirely to the buy-to-let sector, which isn't really what you want in a prestige development. Without seeing the details one can only surmise, but that suggests to me that CABE considered they offered potential buyers very poor value for money. Bear in mind that the going rate for a two-three bedroom flat in Tottenham is about £200,000; people aren't going to pay that for a broom-cupboard, however prestigiously located, and I imagine Levy's looking for something a bit above the average.

    I don't think there will be too many prospective developers. As Collecott said: 'Who else is going to invest £250 million here?'
     

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