Lewis Holtby- Hamburg

Discussion in 'Loanwatch' started by THFCSPURS19, Sep 1, 2014.

  1. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, that perfect for Hamburg sure hurt Stuttgart... cant believe VfB threw a two goal lead, or that Hamburg would/could score 15% of their season tally of goals in one game. Not so sure stuttgart will be safe anymore....
     
  2. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    Yeah sorry man, I imagine you guys were feeling pretty good before the weekend.

    On the bright side, of the relegation scrappers, I think Stuttgart has the easiest remaining schedule. Hannover's is abysmal, and I thought they really needed to beat Hoffenheim at home, and I expected them to. I don't think they'll win another game, and I think they have the least confidence with four games to go. So as of now, I think it'll be Hannover and Paderborn in the automatic spots, with HSV and Stuttgart directly dueling it out on the 2nd to last day for who plays in the playoff, and honestly my prediction is Die Dino will put its status on the line in the playoff once again.
     
  3. carpediem991

    carpediem991 Well-Known Member

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  4. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    I think your prediction is probably about right... but I get the feeling Stuttgart must take points over the next two games, they can't afford to bank on the Paderborn and HSV games.

    Feel sorry for Hannover, they sit outside the relegation spots with four to go but look an absolute lock for relegation.
     
  5. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    I can't help but feel for them either. They were comfortably upper-mid table for most of the fall and relegation probably wasn't even in anyone's minds there, but now they're in utter free fall with zero confidence and a brutal remaining slate. I think we can both agree that we appreciate their collapse, but it's hard not to feel pity for them.

    I agree, always better to try to pick up points from the teams who come in thinking it's a lock against a down-n-out side late in the season. Hamburg did exactly that this past weekend, and have themselves a chance. I could see you winning Mainz at home, as they'll probably be feeling safe at that point and will just have no interest or motivation in putting up a real fight against a desperate team at home.

    I think Paderborn has to win this upcoming weekend's match with Freiburg to have a genuine chance. Otherwise, their moral will be smashed and of course another scrapper will be further out of reach with less time to turn it around. After giving up the points to Werder despite a two goal lead, it'll be tough for them to pick their heads up. I think a draw would suit us each the most, but I do not want to see Paderborn win as that would really keep things open.
     
  6. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    Agree, any points for Paderborn spells trouble for us. Having said that I'd be happy enough to see Freiberg brought back into the equation, just not via a Paderborn win.

    Amazing what a couple of wins can do, I had Mainz as a team that might get dragged into the mire... they look sweet now.
     
  7. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    Yeah for sure, which is all the more interesting because Mainz will still have quite the say as they play several of the scrappers before the season ends.

    Worth mentioning Hertha, as they have a tough remaining schedule. They could very well lose every one of their last few games, and say if even Stuttgart currently at the bottom get two wins and a draw, and goal differential for Hertha drops considerably with those losses and Stuttgart improve theirs, Hertha gets leapt. So they're not quite out of it yet either.
     
  8. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    Two wins and a draw, seven points.... that's the number I had in mind as the safety number but six of those need to come from the last two games to be really comfortable.

    Hadn't considered Hertha, hadn't noticed their draw, they'll scrap a point or two and be safe I think.
     
  9. prawnsandwich

    prawnsandwich Well-Known Member

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  10. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    Big win for Hamburg. Two very unexpected wins in a row now.

    Fwiw, I think there are still concerns with getting Holtby back to fitness. He was on the bench but did not feature in this one. Rafa played CM, and in these crunch matches against relegation it's difficult to overlook his experience. He's very slow now, but at least he doesn't make mistakes, positions himself well, keeps the ball at the feet of HSV players, and knows how to move the ball into space. As this is the only position Holtby has featured at under the new coach, it's worth noting why he's not playing there. The current coach, who they just brought in two weeks ago, likes very lightweight and agile players at the No 10 spot and doesn't like them to drop deeper, but requires the CM's and the No 8 (Rafa) in particular to move forward instead (something I think we should do more of instead of placing so much onus for attack on the AM's). He has played the Croatian Illicevic and Hungarian Stieber there for this reason, and hasn't at all played Holtby there. This makes sense, as Holtby likes to drop deeper and turn to face.

    I think next season, assuming HSV survives and this coach remains, Holtby will see more playing time at CM as he regains fitness and Rafa leaves on a free. But for now, I think Holtby will see cameos at best until the end of the season (unless they secure safety against Stuttgart, in which case I suspect Holtby will play against Schalke on the final day).
     
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  11. prawnsandwich

    prawnsandwich Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for another great contribution.
    Holtby will be well up for the last game against his former club.
     
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  12. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    lalalalalalalalalalalala.... I'm not listening...... lalalalalalalalala
     
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  13. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    Haha in all honesty, I suspect we'll lose that one to you, which furthermore makes TODAY's fixture so damn critical. Very nervous and excited.
     
  14. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    Massive games for both our teams this weekend. I think your form will hold for one more week.

    I see final game of the season is Hannover V Freiberg, so one or both of them will still score points, the bar gets raised higher again.... Stuttgart must take 7 from the remaining 3 games.
     
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  15. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    Holtby gets the start at the No 10 spot in a crucial home match against fellow relegation scrapper Freiburg. Win this, they're likely safe. Lose, and they go from the top of the scrap to right into the thick of it and two tough fixtures left on the slate.
     
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  16. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    Taken off while Olic is still on the pitch, stupid idea :facepalm: Jansen and Olic are like for like now that the latter is old and they've taken off their only creative presence high up the pitch.
     
  17. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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    So it's worth being aware of, after today's results the chances of Hamburg being relegated are now quite high. After two weeks of being at the top of the relegation scrap, several unexpected results now have them within the automatic relegation slots and a date at home with Schalke left to play.

    Given the situation, it's entirely likely Holtby had a clause in his move to Hamburg such that with relegation he'd just return to Spurs. I don't know that for certain, and the press/fans there seem to indicate he's already permanently a Hamburg player (his tirade on youtube with the fans would also suggest it), but nonetheless he may still have the option and may just return if things don't go well next week.

    Also worth noting, as Rafa picked up his tenth yellow card of the season in the match and will be suspended for the match against Schalke, he's now likely played his last match in a top European flight.
     
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  18. prawnsandwich

    prawnsandwich Well-Known Member

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  19. DaSpurs

    DaSpurs Well-Known Member

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  20. not_tenth-again

    not_tenth-again Well-Known Member

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    That's the hope isn't it. They've been shite for months and have somehow still managed to secure their European spot. Anyway, nothing to play for, they're playing away from home, I reckon you're still a hope. Just need to make sure Freiberg and Hannover don't draw. Good luck
     
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