- Jan 28, 2011
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- #201
But transfer price inflation will make this sort of comparison obsolete soon.£60m lol. Would make him the 3rd most expensive defender in history.
But transfer price inflation will make this sort of comparison obsolete soon.£60m lol. Would make him the 3rd most expensive defender in history.
For £60m I want a full back who can both defend and attack....
Bit confused, @GobbyJJ - what is it you disagree with about that statement?That's fair enough.
This is where the HG rules and the increased TV money are at odds. Just 4-5 years ago we would have "swooped" for Max Aarons and Ben Godfrey. 30-40 million (for both) would have been a massive bid, an amount Norwich couldn't have turned down. Nowadays, with a promoted team's budget set to increase by 160 million, they have zero interest in selling 2 of their top prospects even for 25 million each. Whereas Nice will probably sell the much more accomplished Youcef Atal for much less than AWB will cost. Because they need that money.
But transfer price inflation will make this sort of comparison obsolete soon.
Will it? Premier league spending has been falling. It's peak was summer 2017. Last summer was down. Last january it was 66% lower than the previous jan window. The domestic tv rights have flatlined and will most likely fall.
Clubs are pricing players out of the market, so players are simply running contracts down and leaving on free transfers.
We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment. It may burst very soon.
Aggregate spending isn't the right metric - it should be apples to apples: How much would player X have gone for in prior markets.
As for being a bubble, that's only going to be the case if the money coming into football clubs starts to shrink. At the moment, the investment in the industry keeps going up (sponsorship, TV rights, ticket prices etc.) and as such, the assets which drive it (i.e. players) are going to increase as well.
You could argue about the rate of increase, sure (I wouldn't have a clue personally) but I think it's an over simplification to suggest it's a bubble that will inevitably 'burst'. At worst, you'd likely see some form of correction - what's the likelihood of prices (for instance) halving? Almost zero IMO
Will it? Premier league spending has been falling. It's peak was summer 2017. Last summer was down. Last january it was 66% lower than the previous jan window. The domestic tv rights have flatlined and will most likely fall.
Clubs are pricing players out of the market, so players are simply running contracts down and leaving on free transfers.
We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment. It may burst very soon.
So if more and more players start running their contracts down
and the tv rights fall, this wont have an effect?
I never said that it was inevitable the bubble will burst. I'm just saying it's a possibility.
More importantly, levy believes transfer prices are in a bubble and unsustainable. He said as much.
This wouldn't change the net cash position in the industry, so no. It might change the behaviour - players being sold with two years left becomes the norm, longer contracts etc. - but it shouldn't impact asset value
Of course that would have an effect, I even referenced it - but I don't believe the money coming into the industry is falling. It's still going up isn't it?
It's really not a big deal so I see little need to be pedantic about it, but you were very clear that we're in a bubble:
"We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment"
...the only element of uncertainty you set out (bearing in mind that the only trueism of a bubble is that it bursts) was timing
"It may burst very soon. "
That may be more important to our actions this summer, but he's been shown - time and time again - to have underestimated the rate of increase in the transfer market.
He's a shrewd guy, but if he'd shown more aggression (and I recognise there's a balance, of course) in the transfer market, we'd be a richer club, and possibly a more successful one
£60M for a fullback?! Wow - do we have a timemachine and are we getting Paolo Maldini in his prime?!
Oh...it´s Wan-Bissaka from bleedin´ Palace with one - ONE - full season in the PL.
The market is absolutely insane.
My whole point was questioning rawhides ascertation that transfer inflation will mean that spending £40-60m on awb is reasonable. He may well be right but there is a strong possibility that the bubble will burst.
We've seen that transfer spending by premier league clubs is falling.
Either way we have to be careful. We spent more on bentley than eriksen. More on dean richards than bale. More on andy sinton than dele. Transfer inflation doesn't mean you are getting value.
We'll see.
I’m pretty sure I didn’t say anything of the sort...My whole point was questioning rawhides ascertation that transfer inflation will mean that spending £40-60m on awb is reasonable. He may well be right but there is a strong possibility that the bubble will burst.
We've seen that transfer spending by premier league clubs is falling.
Either way we have to be careful. We spent more on bentley than eriksen. More on dean richards than bale. More on andy sinton than dele. Transfer inflation doesn't mean you are getting value.
We'll see.
it's about time we realised this. This just is the modern market£60M for a fullback?! Wow - do we have a timemachine and are we getting Paolo Maldini in his prime?!
Oh...it´s Wan-Bissaka from bleedin´ Palace with one - ONE - full season in the PL.
The market is absolutely insane.