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Nevernotspurs' punt thread

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Deleted member 29102

Rosehill Gardens, Australia 27/06/2015

Best* Value^

race 1 – Lieder meets Libidosun 2kgs better at the weights here last time they met at Warwick Farm. In that race Leider was posted 3 wide with no cover in transit but stuck on well to finish a length of the winner Libidosun who is on the quick backup from last week in the race won by backstab who was also in the Warwick Farm race and had no luck so the form is pretty consistent.

race 2 – Missvonn won easily 2 starts ago in easier grade before going up to open class and running onto heels the last 100m in the race won by Reigning. Comes back in grade here but still in well at the weights with 54kgs. The drop from 2000 to 1900m should suit as well.

race 3 – It's About You* gets in well at the set weights here and will like the give in the track coming from Melbourne for this. He was unlucky not to make it two wins in a row last start when he came from last and sustained a run 5 wide around the turn just to peak on his run late and finish second on a leader’s bias track.

race 4 I found Danchai last time out in the Ipswich cup where he saved ground on the inside to hit the line well for a close win. The gelding seems to still have a lot of upside. The only query is the 2400m but this can be said about Bonfire who is this class horse in the race and therefor is 3.5kgs worse-off at the weights to Danchai.

race 5 – Queen Of Kariba is a filly on the up here coming into this off two wins in slightly lower grade over 1250m. Comes back to 1200m and goes up in grade here but gets in at 53kg after the claim.

race 6 –I was keen on Mirage last start after the Moody stable made some gear changes on the back of throwing away a race by running off the track. The rise in trip is a query but seems to have a lot of upside now that the horse is right. Cafe Society is the interesting runner in the race having its Australian debut after coming from the UK and has form there which is good enough to win this and therefore does get the 59kgs.

race 7 – Berry Delicious is one of a few here who are on the quick back up from last week on the bog track at Randwick. She really relished the conditions to win comfortably by a length and looks suited to the rise in trip. Berrimilla race well in the same grade over 1300m to come second behind a real mudlark in Electric Power. She was hitting the line well and is in good form.

race 8 – Private Secretary can run some crazy last 200m sectionals as shown in her two first-up runs this prep before going up in grade and not handling it to her last start where she mowed down Idance. Will get back in the field but probably has the most upside in the race. Wonderbolt^ is another that hits the line late as seen in its first up run when he looped the field to smash the line for 2nd before meeting a smart one in Brook Road last start. I do have a feeling though that the trip might be too much and the his best trip is 1000m.
 
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Deleted member 29102

Flemington, Australia 27/06/2015
Best* Value^


race 1 – El Greco*was dominant winning last start in similar company to this. Stays with the 59kgs and at the same trip, there’s no reason to get off.

race 2 – Star Stealer and a lot of these come out of the 1000m sprint down the straight won by Husson Eagle a fortnight ago. Star Stealer was impressive in that race first-up this prep run fresh with no trail and meets Rough Justice whom he finished just behind for 3rd, 2kgs better at the weights. Progressive type after going from a bm70 to open class this prep and not looking out of his depth.

race 3 – Abbaso comes from Sydney for this to get away from the rain effected tracks which he will appreciate. He has a good burst of a late speed but hasn’t been able to show it recently because of the rain in Sydney. Is more then up to this grade and can come late. Refulgent is a hard punting prospect and I thought I had finally landed on him a fortnight ago when he seemed to have found the right race stepping up to 1800m from the mile to only be bloused late. Comes back to BM78 and gets in at 58kgs after the claim for Jye Mcneil and I’m not sure what to make off the step back in trip.

race 4 – Got You Double looks an impressive gelding on the up after winning by 2.5 lengths in each of its two runs this prep, all be-it in midweek grade – there still seems to be a lot to like about this horse. Kaizaen meets Azeema 3.5kgs better at the weights here out of their last race over 1400 in bm78 grade where Azeema kicked away to win strongly. Kaizaen is much more suited othe rise in trip and the swing in weights will help.

race 5 – Hard Romp loves it down the straight at Flemington and showed that again last time out over this trip where he quickened in the straight to win by a length. Goes down 1kg in the weights and faces similar company with the likes of Nadeem lass out of the same race. No reason to get off.

race 6 – Annoying here to see two horses I was very keen to follow out of their last races in De Little Engine and Cadillac Mountain end up in the same race. The latter comes out of a 2040m race at the Valley where he ran a huge race from back in the field to make up a lot of ground late for 2nd. De Little Engine comes out of a 2500m race a fortnight ago won by Black Jag on a leaders bias day at Flemington. He ran the strongest last 200m coming from last to finish 4 down the middle of the track and looked ready to win next start.

race 7 – Kenjorwoodhas had no excuses its last 2 runs going down as a short priced favourite but does find what looks to be a suitable race here dropping down to the mile from 2000m where he seems to just be a sitting duck after taking up the running. Does have the top weight but can lead all the way with the soft draw.

race 8 – Sir Andrew comes out of the same race as Mr Utopia a fortnight ago where he was bundled up on the inside and blocked for any chance of a run. Got into the clear the last 20m and showed a glimpse of the turn of foot he has. If Sir Andrew doesn’t make the field, Amovatio brings what I think is a strong Sydney form line around Magic Hurricane who I rate highly.

race 9 – I was on Nautical last start where he was strung up a bit for a run before the turn at the Valley and when into the clear in the straight, really attacked the line for 3rd. Will enjoy the rise in trip. Judicial Rock^ is very hard to catch from a punting perspective but gets in here with just 51kgs after the claim. Will get an easy a lead and will be given every chance to slip away from them.
 

Houdini

No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
Jul 10, 2006
56,725
78,457
Fuckin hell! you do like a write up, NNS! ;)

Good job, btw, i've done all of Flemington with PP cos the tossers at WH dont cover it.
 
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Deleted member 29102

Fuckin hell! you do like a write up, NNS! ;)

Good job, btw, i've done all of Flemington with PP cos the tossers at WH dont cover it.

Are you not able to get on Rosehill?
 

kr1978

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2012
5,322
8,464
Just discovered this thread! What's the hit rate been like so far?
 
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Deleted member 29102

Just discovered this thread! What's the hit rate been like so far?
Only just started posting here mate, all the above is for racing which kicks off in a few hours.
 

kr1978

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2012
5,322
8,464
Only just started posting here mate, all the above is for racing which kicks off in a few hours.

Ah apologies, I haven't been paying enough attention, I could blame Houdini for distracting me by making me start singing the neighbours theme tune to myself, but I won't.

Thanks @nevernotspurs , will be interesting to see how you get on. (y)
 
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Deleted member 29102

Ah apologies, I haven't been paying enough attention, I could blame Houdini for distracting me by making me start singing the neighbours theme tune to myself, but I won't.

Thanks @nevernotspurs , will be interesting to see how you get on. (y)
If you're having a go, getting keener and keener on Missvonn at Rosehill.
 

Houdini

No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
Jul 10, 2006
56,725
78,457
Are you not able to get on Rosehill?

I had to re-open with BET365 to get on Rosehill... no prices as yet either so i bet blind in that dept.
I'd never even heard of Rosehill til you posted it.. :)
 
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Deleted member 29102

Doomben 27/06/2015
race 5 – Territory comes out of the same race as The Storeman and Rocky King here. He meets the latter 2kgs better at the weights here and will take plenty of fitness from that first-up run where he looked as though he was running-on to feature in the finish before peaking on his run at the 150m. His form last prep is more than good e enough to win this, he is the class runner and looks to get weight conditions to suit.
race 6 – Our Boy Nicholas^ is first up here after being gelded and has run reasonably in two trails coming into this. His form last prep through QLD is solid and gets the top-weight accordingly but I love backing horses first up after being gelded and at a sharp trip.
race 7 – Jazz Song drops back in grade here after contesting the likes of Catkins and Hazard. Gets just 54kgs here and looks to have everything to suit .
 

Houdini

No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
Jul 10, 2006
56,725
78,457
Well this died off rather rapidly..
Thank fuck.
Kids in rags.. No food.. Loans4U refused my 12th application.
 
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