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Rob

The Boss
Admin
Jun 8, 2003
28,020
65,117
The expected value (EV) on that offer would be about £1.20: £20x96%rtp + 20px10. Meaning every time you did it, you can "expect" to win £1.20

x520 stake is a great return, but it's definitely not the norm. You would expect to do that offer about 430 odd times to get that profit, but that's the point of this strategy. All about volume of offers you do

You forgot to apply the RTP to the free spins as well. The return from 10 x 20p spins £1.92, not £2. That makes the EV £1.12.
 

Rob

The Boss
Admin
Jun 8, 2003
28,020
65,117
And that that means is that you'd expect to win nothing at all if you did the offer another 500 times!

This is all "on average" though and really you need millions of attempts to get towards the average so you could win big on the next one as well or lose the next 2000.
 

neilp

Well-Known Member
Jul 9, 2007
3,378
14,874
The expected value (EV) on that offer would be about £1.20: £20x96%rtp + 20px10. Meaning every time you did it, you can "expect" to win £1.20

x520 stake is a great return, but it's definitely not the norm. You would expect to do that offer about 430 odd times to get that profit, but that's the point of this strategy. All about volume of offers you do
You forgot to apply the RTP to the free spins as well. The return from 10 x 20p spins £1.92, not £2. That makes the EV £1.12.
No wonder I hated my old bitch of a maths teacher at school, I haven’t got a clue what you two are talking about really. I think I will stick to the horses, I can understand the odds there.

But thanks for trying to explain it anyway.
 

Rob

The Boss
Admin
Jun 8, 2003
28,020
65,117
No wonder I hated my old bitch of a maths teacher at school, I haven’t got a clue what you two are talking about really. I think I will stick to the horses, I can understand the odds there.

But thanks for trying to explain it anyway.

RTP is the Return To Player as a %.

96% means that for every £100 you bet, you'll on average retain £96 and lose £4. So long term, the house wins. This would be -4EV (Expected Value)

You could of course lose the whole £100 or win thousands but if you did enough spins (thousands/millions) then you'd average the RTP amount.

When you throw bonuses into the mix you can overcome the house edge in certain cases and turn the negative Expected Value into a positive one, meaning long term you win. The example above would statistically on average win around £1 for each person that did it. A few might win big and equally some might lose their whole £100 but on average, you'd win a quid.

As you can probably tell, it's all about doing as much as possible so you get as close to the average as possible which we know is positive for the offers we do.
 

Blockbuster

Well-Known Member
Jun 28, 2007
2,765
1,568
I only get £25 on my account, but it's guaranteed £15 - £20 profit and maybe more with their 2-up offer
I've read people have managed to get their In plays upped to £50 by doing the 2up offer regularly at larger stakes?
could be worth a go, I've been doing the 2up most weekends at £50 stakes just to keep the gravy train running
 

mark87

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2004
36,217
115,040
I've read people have managed to get their In plays upped to £50 by doing the 2up offer regularly at larger stakes?
could be worth a go, I've been doing the 2up most weekends at £50 stakes just to keep the gravy train running

I think that's how I keep getting 50, because I always try and do a 2 up and bet atleast 100 with them.
 

Blockbuster

Well-Known Member
Jun 28, 2007
2,765
1,568
I think that's how I keep getting 50, because I always try and do a 2 up and bet atleast 100 with them.
Maybe not the thread but I'd love to know your method for the 2up's, I usually let them run but I've yet to hit a winner so far,
you have much success?

14up's look good too but again its picking the right game
 

mark87

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2004
36,217
115,040
Maybe not the thread but I'd love to know your method for the 2up's, I usually let them run but I've yet to hit a winner so far,
you have much success?

14up's look good too but again its picking the right game

I haven't had any success so far this season with them, but I hit it five times last year and got about £900 from them.

I tend to lay before the game kicks off, prefer not to take the chance of trying to get better lay odds in hope the team I've bet on scores first, if the other team scores first then the lay odds shoot right up obviously.

Anything above 3.0 I try and get .05 in difference for the lay odds. So if I see 3.5/3.55 then I'll get on that.

From 2.0 down I try and get around .03 difference, smetimes not always possible of course. A .02 difference can happen too, that's just £1 QL per £50.

Bet365 offer much better odds than PP, I very rarely get good odds through PP.
 

Blockbuster

Well-Known Member
Jun 28, 2007
2,765
1,568
I haven't had any success so far this season with them, but I hit it five times last year and got about £900 from them.

I tend to lay before the game kicks off, prefer not to take the chance of trying to get better lay odds in hope the team I've bet on scores first, if the other team scores first then the lay odds shoot right up obviously.

Anything above 3.0 I try and get .05 in difference for the lay odds. So if I see 3.5/3.55 then I'll get on that.

From 2.0 down I try and get around .03 difference, smetimes not always possible of course. A .02 difference can happen too, that's just £1 QL per £50.

Bet365 offer much better odds than PP, I very rarely get good odds through PP.
Cheers for this, some great advice there, i'll look to take that on board.

just need the magic crystal ball...!
 

mark87

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2004
36,217
115,040
Cheers for this, some great advice there, i'll look to take that on board.

just need the magic crystal ball...!

The frustrating times are when you bet and lay one team but it's the other team go 2 up and lose the lead. Argh!!

Also, if you're in a position to win a 2 up, say the team you've bet on have gone 2 up and then lose the lead and it's 2-2 with time remaining, you can lock in profit by then betting on the same team to win. Because then if the team you have bet on re-take the lead then you lose the lay bet. But if you bet on them to win again, you will then win that bet as well as the initial back bet that either b365 or PP have already paid you out on. Of course if that team doesn't re-take the lead, then by placing another to win bet on them them all you have done is reduced your lay bet winnings slightly.
 
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bern

Well-Known Member
Feb 18, 2005
8,567
13,276
I`m checking in to see whether this was all still up and running. It appears it is am I right ? cos I`m now in a position to get cracking!
 

NovTHFC

Member
Aug 18, 2008
33
68
I've used a lot of the bookmakers over the years to take advantages of their offers, but not related to this strategy. Are they new offers that you have to utilise or is it offers generated through certain amounts staked?

Would that in mind would this still be worthwhile to begin?
 

Rob

The Boss
Admin
Jun 8, 2003
28,020
65,117
I've used a lot of the bookmakers over the years to take advantages of their offers, but not related to this strategy. Are they new offers that you have to utilise or is it offers generated through certain amounts staked?

Would that in mind would this still be worthwhile to begin?

The easiest money initially is through new signup offers but there's a lot to be made after the initial signups are all done.
 
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