Race for the Top 4 - 2018/19

[Lilbaz]

538 has us at 97% likelihood of qualifying for CL after todays results.

Which is pretty meaningless. If we lose our next game and the others win we will drop to about 60%.

The only way to tell if those statistics are accurate is by playing the games 10,000 times and seeing if we got cl 97% of the time.

 

[YiddoTom90]

Valencia are a good side, it wont be plain sailing for the goons, very young side too.

 

[fortworthspur]

Which is pretty meaningless. If we lose our next game and the others win we will drop to about 60%.

The only way to tell if those statistics are accurate is by playing the games 10,000 times and seeing if we got cl 97% of the time.

yeah, thats what probability is. in this case its only as good as the mathematical assumptions regarding outcomes that they are using.

 

[Lilbaz]

yeah, thats what probability is. in this case its only as good as the mathematical assumptions regarding outcomes that they are using.

Useful if you are playing poker but not really here. To many variables. Unless you are betting i guess.

Us making top 4 is 50/50. We either do or we don't.

 

[fortworthspur]

Useful if you are playing poker but not really here. To many variables. Unless you are betting i guess.

Us making top 4 is 50/50. We either do or we don't.

except it isnt. even if you believe the upcoming results are completely random each team should accrue four points and we are still in.

 

[Lilbaz]

except it isnt. even if you believe the upcoming results are completely random each team should accrue four points and we are still in.

The 50/50 is a joke. Everything is 50/50 you either do or you don't.

What i was saying is there are too many variables to put a figure of 97% on it. Eriksen could eat a dodgy kebab tonight, toby might have a bust up with his mrs etc...
97% is only accurate for the statistics they enter, not real life. Chaos theory comes into play and means that the outcome can be totally different.
This is not to say that we aren't highly likely to qualify now though. We will be massive favourites, is that figure 97%? Nobody knows for sure.

 

[coys200]

Few “IFs”

Arsenal fail to win all 3 games

Spurs win 1 of 3 games we finish above them

Top:

Spurs beat West Ham

EITHER of these occur

United beat Chelsea

Arsenal fail to beat Leicester

Top 4 assured

 

[coys200]

Can’t relax until after the West Ham game, lose that and we get dragged back into the race for 4th.

Disagree 1 win from 3 will likely be enough. Arsenal aren’t winning all 3.

 

[Lifelong]

I’m just going to put it out there...how many people know about hills borough...quite rightly so because it could so easily of been us....how many know about heysal...ruined English football for at least ten years...that’s why I hate the scousers and always will.....*****...

The lot of em

Thanks for the wtf Klink...google it...then you will realise...gooners and chavs will always be up there but scousers are up there in front in my eyes and will be until the day I go...

 

[Hazelton]

It's west ham. It's a must win.

At the new stadium too. Fuck letting them be the first team to take points off us, they'd never stop going on about it.

 

[rez9000]

He was espousing the view that Cartesian modernism was nothing but warmed up neo-Aristotelian thought couched in a new dialectic. Plus NO MUSTAFI BLAD WHAT YOU SAYIN TURKISH

Indeed. I was of the thought that positing his thesis as to the expediency demonstrated by the administration with regard the exclusion of Mustafism from the composition of the aggregate personnel that the ballistical team sought to install on the field of play in their engagement with that of the lupine variety was served through an essentially didactic framework.

Innit, fam?

 

[THX2208]

In hindsight, what a result our win at Molineux was!

Absolutely agree with that. They are a very good side and shown on their day they are a match for anyone.

 

[THX2208]

At the new stadium too. Fuck letting them be the first team to take points off us, they'd never stop going on about it.

Its the closest they are ever going to get to playing in the Champions League. Playing us has been their Cup Final for as long as I've been alive and I'm 46 in August.
COYS

 

[Flashspur]

geez the Goons have choked big time, bigger than Linda Lovelace

She didn’t choke man, she could take it all. These ****s would choke on a lollipop.

 

[Armstrong_11]

IMO... 2 more wins and we are over the line.

great when results are going your way.

 

[mattdefoe]

If we beat west ham and the likely scenario of arsenal losing away happens then st totteringham day no more!

Also big well done to our lads for digging in and hopefully getting us over the line , only a few weeks ago it looked like an uphill battle

 

[mattdefoe]

Valencia are a good side, it wont be plain sailing for the goons, very young side too.

Valencia were in the champions league beating utd and drawing to them. They weee unlucky not to go through , I would be surprised if arsenal knock them out

 

[Dillspur]

Valencia were in the champions league beating utd and drawing to them. They weee unlucky not to go through , I would be surprised if arsenal knock them out

TBF, I was surprised they knocked Napoli out

 

[LeParisien]

The only way to tell if those statistics are accurate is by playing the games 10,000 times and seeing if we got cl 97% of the time.

If you click “how this works” part of their methodology is to run a simulation 10000 times. You should apply for a job

 

[Navy Spur]

Can someone clarify something for me please, quite a few have mentioned about top four but isn’t it imperative we finish 3rd to safeguard Champions League?

If Arsenal finish 3rd and we finish 4th but Chelsea win the Europa (or visa versa with Arsenal) and we don’t win the Champions League wouldn’t we be knocked out?

If that is the case I think the game against the Spammers is a must to win, but then again I could be totally wrong and need to go back to lurking ?