Race for the Top 4 - 2018/19

[L-man]

Are done if we beat West Ham, Leicester beat Arsenal and Chelsea beat United?

That would leave the table:

Spurs 73
Chelsea 70
Arsenal 66
United 64

6 to play for means only Chelsea could overtake us.
Actually, if United do Chelsea, they'd be on 67 but with such an inferior goal difference to us, they'd need to win both their remaining games and us to lose both of ours by big score lines.

So Spurs, Leicester and United wins this weekend is the perfect storm?

If Arsenal fail to win, we beat West Ham, we are effectively guaranteed top 4, bar a big GD swing, regardless of the result in Utd-Chelsea

We win/ Arsenal draw puts them 6 points behind with at least 8 goal swing and 2 games to go. A loss for them and win for us means they can't catch us.

United win - we can only be caught on GD as at least 6 ahead of all teams. United GD around 17 behind, Chelsea 11 behind
Chelsea win means United can't catch us. If Arsenal lose, top four is confirmed. Arsenal draw and they can only catch us on GD.
Draw means United can't catch us and Chelsea can only finish above us if we lose the last two and they win both.

 

[TottenhamMattSpur]

If Arsenal fail to win, we beat West Ham, we are effectively guaranteed top 4, bar a big GD swing, regardless of the result in Utd-Chelsea

We win/ Arsenal draw puts them 6 points behind with at least 8 goal swing and 2 games to go. A loss for them and win for us means they can't catch us.

United win - we can only be caught on GD as at least 6 ahead of all teams. United GD around 17 behind, Chelsea 11 behind
Chelsea win means United can't catch us. If Arsenal lose, top four is confirmed. Arsenal draw and they can only catch us on GD.
Draw means United can't catch us and Chelsea can only finish above us if we lose the last two and they win both.

I'm sure you made my post 10 times more complex lol.

 

[RichieS]

Earlier I was thinking that the most likely results on current form are:
Spurs win
Arse lose
Chelsea/Utd draw
On checking the table to see how that made things look I found, unless I'm much mistaken, that would do it for us without having to rely on goal difference.

 

[Lighty64]

Can someone clarify something for me please, quite a few have mentioned about top four but isn’t it imperative we finish 3rd to safeguard Champions League?

If Arsenal finish 3rd and we finish 4th but Chelsea win the Europa (or visa versa with Arsenal) and we don’t win the Champions League wouldn’t we be knocked out?

If that is the case I think the game against the Spammers is a must to win, but then again I could be totally wrong and need to go back to lurking ?

don't rush back to being a lurker, but if you do, you need to do it better

 

[piedpiper]

Disagree 1 win from 3 will likely be enough. Arsenal aren’t winning all 3.

You've just gone and jinxed it .

 

[Lighty64]

I think some people are over thinking the top four and who they want, I want us and Manchester United because the other two are Chelsea and Arsenal and it's as simple as that.
Not getting CL won't affect Arsenal's transfer window because they aren't going to buy big time charlies they are building and will do it cleverly and it may be the case that Manchester United have finally got to the point where they will do the same albeit at a higher level, they are Manchester United after all. Chelsea have got the transfer ban but with all their loanees they have eighty or ninety players to choose from but CL or not won't make much difference to them, they are still on the decline.
The other advantage of us and Man utd again is that it cements the reality that there is really still a top four not a top six it's just that that top four no longer includes the Europa clubs Arsenal and Chelsea.

plus Levy can put the posters up again

my hope for Saturday
beat Wet Spam

Sunday
Leicester beat the goons (goons can't catch us)
Man U beat Chelsea (would need a miracle goal turnover to miss top 4)

Tuesday
beat Ajax 2-0

Thursday
Chelsea lose
Arse at best draw 2-2

Saturday
beat or draw with Bournemouth (3rd spot confirmed)

Wednesday
don't lose on agg v Ajax

 

[Deggsy56]

Can someone clarify something for me please, quite a few have mentioned about top four but isn’t it imperative we finish 3rd to safeguard Champions League?

If Arsenal finish 3rd and we finish 4th but Chelsea win the Europa (or visa versa with Arsenal) and we don’t win the Champions League wouldn’t we be knocked out?

If that is the case I think the game against the Spammers is a must to win, but then again I could be totally wrong and need to go back to lurking ?

3rd guarantees CL - 4th does not. We have to secure 3rd - or win current CL (unlikely).

 

[Lighty64]

3rd guarantees CL - 4th does not. We have to secure 3rd - or win current CL (unlikely).

4th does GUARANTEE CL

 

[Gb160]

4th does GUARANTEE CL

Ill give it 3 hours until someone else asks or gets it wrong.

 

[doctor stefan Freud]

I think we'll go with a strong team on Saturday with the rationale being that 3 points vs West Ham allows us to rest almost everybody for the Bournemouth game which falls in between the two Ajax games. If we rotate lots this weekend and slip up (which I think we would if we make lots of changes) then we don't have the luxury of resting players at Bournemouth.

Don't really care who gets the other Top 4 spot, other than I hope that if one of Chelsea and Arsenal wins the Europa (eurgh) its them so as to keep it as only 4 EPL teams in the Champs League.

We don’t have replacements for everybody

 

[Lighty64]

Ill give it 3 hours until someone else asks or gets it wrong.

not if they don't have signatures hidden and see mine

edit: or me on ignore

 

[doctor stefan Freud]

If Arsenal fail to win, we beat West Ham, we are effectively guaranteed top 4, bar a big GD swing, regardless of the result in Utd-Chelsea

We win/ Arsenal draw puts them 6 points behind with at least 8 goal swing and 2 games to go. A loss for them and win for us means they can't catch us.

United win - we can only be caught on GD as at least 6 ahead of all teams. United GD around 17 behind, Chelsea 11 behind
Chelsea win means United can't catch us. If Arsenal lose, top four is confirmed. Arsenal draw and they can only catch us on GD.
Draw means United can't catch us and Chelsea can only finish above us if we lose the last two and they win both.

Useful nerd

 

[Shadydan]

Ill give it 3 hours until someone else asks or gets it wrong.

People are gonna be asking the same question after we've guaranteed qualification.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

Anway, what is the status on finishing fourth vs. playing in the CL and what if the club that finishes 3rd wins CL can that club then participate with two teams?

 

[spursram]

4th does GUARANTEE CL

Being pedantic, I think you mean Spurs finishing 4th guarantees CL for us? Aren't there mathametical scenarios for another team to finish 4th and not qualify?

 

[rightwayup]

To be honest they way the others are playing, we might not even need any more points

However I reckon it is worth going all out to win this weekend. The key match is likely to be the away leg v Ajax and if we can rest players before that I think we will get the job done.

 

[Hotspurious]

Being pedantic, I think you mean Spurs finishing 4th guarantees CL for us? Aren't there mathametical scenarios for another team to finish 4th and not qualify?

yes...we would have to win CL and finish outside top 4 AND Arsenal or Chelsea would have to win Europa League and finish outside top 4. Then, the 4th place team would miss out. The problem is, that scenario requires us to collapse and for Man Utd to climb up to at least 4th. Possible, but increasingly unlikely.

 

[Lighty64]

Being pedantic, I think you mean Spurs finishing 4th guarantees CL for us? Aren't there mathametical scenarios for another team to finish 4th and not qualify?

to the person I quoted saying we needed to finish 3rd, other teams are not included

 

[Archibald&Crooks]

All the ‘what ifs’ regarding who qualifies for CL are covered here I think

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47806720

 

[stov]

So who would you guys prefer to sit in that 4th slot (if indeed we do get 3rd)?
My thinking is that it would be best if it were Chelsea with a transfer ban?? That could be potentially less damaging in a competitive market for players - (again, making a massive assumption that we haven't decided to explore the possibilities of an indefinite policy to sign zero new players)....