Realistically Speaking...

[Flashspur]

I think we can win the PL this season if we start strongly. I see Liverpool and Chelsea as our main rivals and they are going to struggle with ECL. A PL win and/or a top 4 finish plus getting out of the group stages will be sensational.

Domestic cups? I am not sure. I think the overhead will be too great as the squad depth is still pretty light.

 

[sparx100]

I would take the league cup. I don't care if it's not a 'premier' trophy. All clubs compete in it and it would give our club a trophy and an understanding on how to win these things. I seriously think we need to win something next season to keep our players united. The inevitable problem is that Poch will play a weaker team in this competition which others do too so it depends on the draw.

 

[Qualsonic]

I think we have to win something this year.

I also think we have to do well in the Champions League, quarter or semi finals.

I think our final position in the league is virtually unpredictable; with a lot of the other competitive teams having massive overhauls in their personnel and "The Wembley Factor", at this stage I'd take a top 4 finish.

 

[parj]

If we are serious about being a big team then we need top4. Players need to step up to either 1) get Levy to offer the new contract they want or 2) get that big money move cos they going nowhere without a big bid.

Most importantly, we need Poch to come out fighting start of the season and not use Wembley as an excuse at any point.

I actually think we are still the best team in the league for starting 11. We only need to use upgrade the subs bench but I'm also happy for us to have the balls to trust Onomah, Winks and Carter-Vickers. We still need to be realistic, we have a big stadium to pay for so if we spend £50m correctly from Walker sales plus other money earned from transfers I'm happy. Remember, our competitors want our players so we are actually very good.

 

[parj]

Our par is 6th. Given the Wembley situation that seems even more relevant.

Don't care about the Wembley situation. These aren't 7 year olds having to resettle in s new school. These are players that earn in a week what most struggle to earn in a year. They need to earn that money at every Stadium they pull our shirt on in. Wembley is home for at least one season. They need to settle fast and treat it like WHL. Otherwise we fcuked in the new stadium.

 

[dontcallme]

Don't care about the Wembley situation. These aren't 7 year olds having to resettle in s new school. These are players that earn in a week what most struggle to earn in a year. They need to earn that money at every Stadium they pull our shirt on in. Wembley is home for at least one season. They need to settle fast and treat it like WHL. Otherwise we fcuked in the new stadium.

People always say this but money doesn't change everything.

Despite the raise in wages away forms are still much worse than home form. This is a simple fact.

Teams playing in a new stadium always have a dip in form. While the players will work hard to minimise it believing the wages they earn gets rid of this factor is unbelievably naive.

 

[WalkerboyUK]

Don't care about the Wembley situation. These aren't 7 year olds having to resettle in s new school. These are players that earn in a week what most struggle to earn in a year. They need to earn that money at every Stadium they pull our shirt on in. Wembley is home for at least one season. They need to settle fast and treat it like WHL. Otherwise we fcuked in the new stadium.

Try 3-4 years...

 

[spids]

Don't care about the Wembley situation. These aren't 7 year olds having to resettle in s new school. These are players that earn in a week what most struggle to earn in a year. They need to earn that money at every Stadium they pull our shirt on in. Wembley is home for at least one season. They need to settle fast and treat it like WHL. Otherwise we fcuked in the new stadium.

And yet all statistical data shows that clubs playing in a new 'home' will struggle to replicate their home form from the previous ground. Recent Premiership examples include (season before and after stadium move):

Arsenal (73.7% wins dropped to 63.2% wins)
West Ham (47.4% wins dropped to 36.8% wins)
Southampton (57.9% wins dropped to 6.8% win
Man City (47.4% wins dropped to 26.3% wins)
Cardiff (60.9% wins dropped to 52.2%)

As fans, we would be incredibly irresponsible to expect the team to hit the same heights as last year at Wembley. Add to this the fact our turnover is 6th highest in the league and that our NET spending is probably the lowest in the entire league as we fund the new stadium, and expectations cannot be for a tilt at the title.

 

[PeeEyeEmPee]

I think we've got a chance to win the league, but only if we have the balls to believe and actually go for it. Chelsea have to come back to the pack a bit this year - they've no element of surprise this time round, they're also back in the CL, and they've not (yet) sorted their problems (depth, replacing Costa etc). I think Man City will be amazing going forward this time round, but their pretty much building an entire defence from scratch. Man U are chucking money around, but their team/squad still looks average as hell to me. and I don't rate either Liverpool or Arsenal.

I think with one or two shrewd signings, we really could have a proper go.

 

[oohaahedgar]

FA Cup winners and top 4 finish.

 

[Good Doctor M]

Think anyone who reckons we can win the league whilst at Wembley is wildly kidding themselves.

Personally, I think we can make Top 4 but wouldn't go putting any money on a title push. There's being hopeful and then there's ignoring reality.

 

[Disconosebleed]

Think anyone who reckons we can win the league whilst at Wembley is wildly kidding themselves.

Personally, I think we can make Top 4 but wouldn't go putting any money on a title push. There's being hopeful and then there's ignoring reality.

Over the past two years we've been the best team in the country by a mile, and over the second half of last season we were the equal of the eventual champions. Will the Wembley move hurt us? Maybe. Will the loss of Walker hurt us? Maybe. But to assume that we're going to take a huge step back based on these nebulous maybes is further away from being realistic than anyone who says we could fight for the title again.

 

[Good Doctor M]

Over the past two years we've been the best team in the country by a mile, and over the second half of last season we were the equal of the eventual champions. Will the Wembley move hurt us? Maybe. Will the loss of Walker hurt us? Maybe. But to assume that we're going to take a huge step back based on these nebulous maybes is further away from being realistic than anyone who says we could fight for the title again.

We've challanged for two years now and come up short... I can't see how without having a full and proper home advantage the entire season, we can realistically expect to do as well as last year or better. Arsenal, struggled in their first year at the Emirates and they were flying when they made their move, whilst no other club in memory have gotten off to a flyer when changing stadiums - why would we be any different?

The title of the thread is "Realistically speaking" and being realistic and looking at precedence, taking the option of being optimistic out of the equation, it stands to reason that a Top 4 finish next year would be a huge HUGE achievment.

 

[Disconosebleed]

We've challanged for two years now and come up short... I can't see how without having a full and proper home advantage the entire season, we can realistically expect to do as well as last year or better. Arsenal, struggled in their first year at the Emirates and they were flying when they made their move, whilst no other club in memory have gotten off to a flyer when changing stadiums - why would we be any different?

The title of the thread is "Realistically speaking" and being realistic and looking at precedence, taking the option of being optimistic out of the equation, it stands to reason that a Top 4 finish next year would be a huge HUGE achievment.

You're assuming the ground will work against us. It might work against us, it might work for us, in all probability it won't make much of a difference. Whatever happens, it's pure guesswork at this stage. For every Arsenal there's a Brighton, who took to their ground straight away and steadily went from a League One/bottom-half-of-Championship irrelevance to regular promotion hopefuls and eventually a Premier League side in just a few years. Taking it as a given that we're going to go to shit because of a ground switch is mad IMO.

With regard to your second paragraph - after the last two years, I think our club has earned the right to consider optimistic and realistic the same thing. I'm not saying we will win the league this season, only that nothing has happened to assume that we will go backwards. I'm certainly more confident of winning the league this season than I was this time last year, when there was still the nagging sensation that maybe 2015-16 was 'our year' and we'd blown it. Two superb seasons in a row suggests to me that maybe we're just a very good team rather than a gang of chancers riding the crest of a wave.

 

[Good Doctor M]

You're assuming the ground will work against us. It might work against us, it might work for us, in all probability it won't make much of a difference. Whatever happens, it's pure guesswork.

Not sure I agree with this at all.

Our Wembley record is dreadful and as I said, historically, all clubs tend to struggle when they move ground. I'd love to be wrong, but realistically, if we were still at the Lane, yes, absolutely, the league is a possibility - I'd take odds of 3-1 as fair. At Wembley, I can't for the life of me see how anyone can say "it's a toss-up". We went unbeaten at the Lane this year - UNBEATEN!

To say we can take that form to Wembley, where we lost multiple times this year to teams who arguably we would have swotted aside at WHL, requires a huge leap of faith.

(Think we'll have to agree to disagree on this)

 

[pffft]

no other club in memory have gotten off to a flyer when changing stadiums - why would we be any different?

.

I can't believe you've already forgotten about West Ham. Most successful stadium migration in history don'tcha know.

 

[talkshowhost86]

Looking at the amount our rivals are able to spend, and considering we're effectively away from home for a whole season, I think we'll do well to finish in the top 4.

If we did finish 5th or 6th it certainly wouldn't be a disgrace (depending on what we spend in the next month or so of course) when you consider that the teams that finished below us have already spent a combined 124 bazillions pounds already.

Obviously money isn't everything, and we have a solid base to work from after an excellent season, but eventually our inability (or unwillingness depending on your view) to spend significant money will allow us to be caught by the chasing pack.

The unfortunate thing is if we do fail to finish top 4, even if it wouldn't exactly be a failure, it would almost certainly lead to a mass exodus from the club, which would be a real shame moving into the new stadium.

My main hope is that it will take City and United ages to get all their shiny new players to become a cohesive unit, whilst we already have that in place, but I think at least one of those two will finish above us.

I think top 4 would be another good effort for this season, with the always added stipulation that we do well in a cup competition as well.

 

[Disconosebleed]

Not sure I agree with this at all.

Our Wembley record is dreadful and as I said, historically, all clubs tend to struggle when they move ground. I'd love to be wrong, but realistically, if we were still at the Lane, yes, absolutely, the league is a possibility - I'd take odds of 3-1 as fair. At Wembley, I can't for the life of me see how anyone can say "it's a toss-up". We went unbeaten at the Lane this year - UNBEATEN!

To say we can take that form to Wembley, where we lost multiple times this year to teams who arguably we would have swotted aside at WHL, requires a huge leap of faith.

(Think we'll have to agree to disagree on this)

Our Wembley record isn't great but you have to take into account we've only played at Wembley when we're either in the latter stages of cup competitions or the Champions League - generally the standard of opposition when we've played there has been very high. That's not to excuse it - we still should have a better record than we do - but it's not as simple as just saying we've had a bad record at Wembley therefore we'll continue to be shit next year; that run has included games against United, Chelsea a few times, Monaco, Leverkusen. This is before you take into account the fact that everything in that poor run in Wembley cup games bar the location has been different to how it will be next season; the crowd won't be split 50-50, they won't be cup games, we'll be playing there every week...the odds will be much more in our favour next season than they have been in any of those cup games.

Obviously that doesn't apply to the CL games, where it was our home ground - but the only game IMO that can't be at least partly excused is the Leverkusen one, which was just a poor performance from what I remember. We actually played reasonably well against Monaco IMO and were unlucky to lose to a team who were unheralded at that stage but went on to show that they're actually just a really good side; it seemed like a shit result at the time but the best players of that side are now being cherry-picked by the best clubs in Europe.

I'm over-explaining, but my point boiled down is that the poor run at Wembley over the past few years is not directly relevant to playing there every week as our home ground. I'm not saying it will be a guaranteed overwhelming success, but there's no reason whatsoever to assume it is going to be a major stumbling block.

 

[kungfugrip]

I'd bite your hand off for top 4 again. It's going to be difficult and two big clubs will miss out again.

 

[spurs9]

And yet all statistical data shows that clubs playing in a new 'home' will struggle to replicate their home form from the previous ground. Recent Premiership examples include (season before and after stadium move):

Arsenal (73.7% wins dropped to 63.2% wins)
West Ham (47.4% wins dropped to 36.8% wins)
Southampton (57.9% wins dropped to 6.8% win
Man City (47.4% wins dropped to 26.3% wins)
Cardiff (60.9% wins dropped to 52.2%)

As fans, we would be incredibly irresponsible to expect the team to hit the same heights as last year at Wembley. Add to this the fact our turnover is 6th highest in the league and that our NET spending is probably the lowest in the entire league as we fund the new stadium, and expectations cannot be for a tilt at the title.

Arsenal only got 1 point more (43 v 42) at home in their last season at Highbury than their first at the Emirates, which was also 1 less than they got in the season before their last at Highbury.
West Ham lost their best player (by far) that season and he sulked the small amount of time he was there.
Southampton & City were dross back then and fluctuated between average and shit.

The thing is, our home form would most likely drop even if we stayed at WHL, as we won 17 out of 19 games and set a new record for ourselves and only win 1 behind the best PL record. If we only won 11 PL home games at Wembley, it would look shit against last seasons record, yet would be better than the 10 home wins we got when we finished 3rd the season before.