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So are we better or worse this season?

Discussion in 'Spurscommunity Front Page News' started by davidmatzdorf, Jan 7, 2007.

  • by davidmatzdorf, Jan 7, 2007 at 1:32 PM
  • davidmatzdorf Front Page Gadfly

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    We've played 31 matches so far this season. A lot of people are unhappy with our form so I thought I'd find out what our form really is, compared to last season.

    I've done a spreadsheet, comparing results so far to the first 31 matches of last season.

    I've added cup and league matches together, partly because it's not possible to make a proper comparison otherwise, but also because I think we can offset the somewhat weaker opposition in our additional cup matches against (a) the exhaustion factor of the increased frequency of matches and (b) the fact that we have already played 4 of the most difficult away matches in the first half of the season (Bolton, Man U, Liverpool & Arsenal).<o:p></o:p>

    <o:p></o:p>
    Here are the results:
    <o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p>
    Points:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 49<o:p></o:p>
    This season 59
    <o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p>
    Wins:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 13<o:p></o:p>
    This season 18
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Draws:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 10<o:p></o:p>
    This season 5
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Losses:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 8
    This season 8
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Points per match:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 1.58<o:p></o:p>
    This season 1.90
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Forecast points after 38 matches:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 60<o:p></o:p>
    This season 72
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Goals scored:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 45<o:p></o:p>
    This season 46
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Goals conceded:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 30<o:p></o:p>
    This season 31
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Goal difference:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season +15<o:p></o:p>
    This season +15
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    That's interesting, isn't it? I thought this year's results would be about the same or slightly better than last year's. I didn't expect it to be this clear-cut.<o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>

    So then I had a look at the away results, as everyone is fretting about our away form - again combining all cup and league matches:
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Wins:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 4<o:p></o:p>
    This season 5
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Draws:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 5<o:p></o:p>
    This season 4
    <o:p></o:p>
    <o:p></o:p>
    Losses:<o:p></o:p>
    Last season 7<o:p></o:p>
    This season 6


    Hmmm.
    [hr]1[/hr]

    Cup matches:
    Won 9 (last year 0)
    Drawn 0 (last year 0)
    Lost 0 (last year 2)

    That's 27 points from cup matches (last year 0).

    Goals scored in cup matches:
    This year: 20
    Last year: 2

    Goals conceded in cup matches:
    This year: 3
    Last year: 4

    [hr]2[/hr]
    Note: All figures are before the Cardiff game.
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Comments

Discussion in 'Spurscommunity Front Page News' started by davidmatzdorf, Jan 7, 2007.

  1. khop145
    Agreed. Also posted my comment in another thread "Spurs must tighten up midfield..." where I just compared the league matches with last season and see it is not far of too...
  2. Tottenham_OZpur
    I don't think adding cup matches makes sense to be honest, if I was comparing results to last season, it would just be league matches. To see how many points we are better or worse off, goals scored and conceded etc, losses/wins/draws etc :wink:

    seems to me that by adding the other results, it is just to make the result look better and thus make it seem we have done better this season. In the league we haven't really done better, thanks to our away form.

    We have done very well in the cups and the UEFA Cup in particular, but with our lucky League cup draw, we should have made it to the semis anyway ;)

    I agree in cup games we have done better, but in the league I don't think we have, our away form at fault for that :wink:
  3. chiveliyid
    Good set of stats and puts a good positive spin on the season. We have perhaps struggled more as a team this year at times but as a squad we are definately a lot stronger and with our current crop we have so much further to go. In a post earlier today loyalty was mentioned, as a club we need to work to develop that loyalty from our players. Things are positive if we can continually lay down the foundations for growth as a club and keep our best players together.

    In Levy, Jol, Comolli, Hughton and Moniz I trust.
  4. davidmatzdorf
    No, I think it makes perfect sense to combine all the matches, partly for the reasons that I already stated in my article:

    a) matches closer together tiring the squad;

    b) we have already played 4 of our most difficult away matches, which wasn't true at this stage last season.

    There'a another reason, too, and it has nothing to do with any desire to "make the results look better". I just wanted to know what the real situation was, rather than relying on looking at the Premiership table and hazy, happy memories of cup ties.

    The other reason is that quite a few supporters are berating the team for their medium-medium Premiership form, based on the spurious assumption that successful clubs from other countries are worse than (say) Reading and Watford. They aren't. Beating Bucuresti, Brugge, Leverkusen (away), especially Besiktas (away) and even Slavia Prague (twice) - those are extremely good results against teams that have qualified for the same competition that we have.

    Just as difficult as playing clubs in the bottom half of the Premiership.

    So I think I've created as level a playing field as can be created here, given that we have now crammed 32 matches in 4 competitions into 4 months, whereas last season we played 40 matches over 9 months.

    The only available alternative would be to compare our first 22 Premiership fixtures this year with our first 22 Premiership fixtures last year, and I think that would be comparing unlike with unlike - and far less informative than what I have done.
  5. davidmatzdorf
    Thanks. I agree with your comment about the overall strength of the squad, but I wasn't trying to "put a positive spin" on the season.

    I just wanted to see if we were doing as well as last year, overall. I didn't actually expect the results I got, I was surprised.
  6. 18Klinsmann
    I like your positive analysis, and I too am somewhat surprised at how good it looks. Comparing results in football - and actually making real sense - is, however, an almost impossible task. Cup runs will always give a feel-good atmosphere, and although there is no reason to underestimate our results in Europe this year we must do better in the league to talk of real progress I think.
    We have more "outs" this season to qualify for Europe through the cups we are in, but when it comes to finishing in the top six and securing European football (and progress next year) that way, I'm not so confident anymore.
    Squad wise we are better off, and Berbatov and Chimbonda are real improvements, but our midfield is still suffering from the demise and defection of ED and MC respectively. For as long as it takes to reestablish our midfield tenacity we may have to settle for that classic Spurs tonic of beautiful passes and lost possession so perfectly personified by Huddlestone today. Once again we are playing the dangerous waiting game: If given the right time and circumstances our current team could become really great with the right reinforcements, but for every season we underachieve (read: miss out on Europe) we will lose precious pieces of the puzzle and face setbacks over and over again.
    I think making Europe will be a close call again this season, but it has never been more crucial. With a bit of luck we will make it, but inconsistency we will have to live with. With the right winners in the cups (or us!!!) 7th could well be good enough for qualifying for Europe, and if that is achieved with cup runs will into the spring I will grant that we have truly progressed.
    in conclusion I suppose it really is much easier to compare seasons when they are over - but what a great one this is to follow so far.
  7. mawspurs
    An interesting bit of analysis David. Its positive to see the way the season is shaping up when you look at those stats.

    Its really what Jol was saying last week, without actually going into the stats, we are doing pretty well so far this season as a whole. There is still room for improvement and Jol also stated that too. Its really just the league away form that needs to pick up especially now the home run of wins has been broken.
  8. chiveliyid
    Yeah were probably the wrong words to use, what I meant was that it puts a positive shine on our season to date. I'm generally seeing this season as a developmental year for us as a side and squad but with expectations of maybe getting something out of it (i.e. UEFA and Carling Cup successes?). So having seen that it makes me more positive about what we have already achieved this season.
  9. longdistancespursfan
    You definatley put a lot of thought into this David, Like ozspur said tho im not sure you can include cup games I know you have already given reasons to include them but I still cant agree, for me the cups are just a bonus and the league is the bread and butter, cups only matter if you end up winning one, if this season we finish 8th in the league and get to semi final of both domestic cups and say get beat in the uefa cup final then it will be a poor season, the bare limit for this season is to qualify for next years uefa cup, if we don't manage that then we will possibly lose some of our top stars, I would say that the cups games only come into the equation if we end up winning that cup, I must say getting knocked out of both cups last year didnt bother me so much once we came 5th in the league, for me its your league placing that shows how good you are as a team and it was great to be able to brag to all my boro mates that we were the 5th best team in england last year.
  10. davidmatzdorf
    But that's a worried fan's perspective (or a bragging fan, I suppose). I'm just trying to answer the question: are we playing better or worse than last year, match by match?

    The answer, disregarding all of the perfectly valid "politics" about the team's future, how to keep the squad together and which matches the fans will be able to enjoy next season, is:

    "Yes, we've won more and drawn fewer, by a considerable margin, against a comparable standard of opposition and with a far more challenging schedule."

    That's all it proves. Team by team, match by match, we have been getting better results.

    Now we have to do it in the league (or win a cup) if we the fans are going to feel good about the season, compared to last season.

    A lot of the discontent is about increased expectations. Few supporters actually thought we had turned the corner at the beginning of last year - anything better than 8th would have been thought to be good progression.

    Having hung onto 4th for so long and qualified for Europe, many people now see that there is a quality squad and a focused management. So anything less than 5th will be perceived as failure.

    I wanted to cut through the "perceived" performance and look at some hard figures.

    About a half hour. I'm very quick using Excel - writing enormous, complicated spreadsheets is part of my work sometimes.
  11. longdistancespursfan
    About a half hour. I'm very quick using Excel - writing enormous, complicated spreadsheets is part of my work sometimes.

    Your just showing off now, (joke)


    Im not sure that stats can prove wether we are playing better or not, as someone greater than me once said 'there are lies, damn lies and statistics. for me we have a better squad this season cover wise with more ability and flair in the 1st team but what we have lost I think is a bit of last years team spirit, also I think that some of the other teams have considerably improved like pompey and bolton, the fact that we have improved or not improved matters only in regards to our peers, for example if we improved 1% on last year but our rivals all improved 10% then we havnt really improved even though we have,

    that makes sense to me, if it dosnt to you have 5 pints of stella then you will see through my eyes, lol
  12. 18Klinsmann
    "Now we have to do it in the league (or win a cup) if we the fans are going to feel good about the season, compared to last season.

    A lot of the discontent is about increased expectations."

    - I agree that many fans have too high expectations, but falling into the category of "worried fan" I will also argue that it is not just about fans feeling good. The way I see it Europe must be achieved if we are to continue our revival as a club. If we manage that I will feel good as a fan.
  13. coys63
    Thanks for the stats David.

    For me they highlight how good our season to date actually has been. Especially considering the horrendous run of injuries. However, as is always the case, the picture could have been a lot brighter if not for the one statistic that tells the true tale of our season thus far.....

    12 league games without a clean sheet :bang:
  14. MidnightCaller
    Well done with the stats, and Hoddle and co on sky said today "this is the best spurs squad he as seen in a long time". I believe we have these results, because we have improved our right back position Chimbonda, and with Huddlestone a good replacement for Carrick, shame he did not play right at the start of the season, I think we have only lost once with him in the team. could go to the next level if we improve the leftback,left wing position. It is all about quality, and at the moment we are just two players short of a champions league position.
  15. Freddiehotspur
    I agree with the sentiment that we need to show better league form for us to keep the squad happy and keep improving the team towards the objective of winning the league at some point. The stats speak for themselves. And it's always nice to have a good run in the cups. But still, if we get beaten in the semi-finals of all 3 competitions, i would still consider it disastrous, as our hopes of retaining a European qualification spot in the league seems to be fading. However, that would be quite Hotspur-like, wouldn't it?
  16. beefy
    if we won one of the cups i would happily take 7th this season,but only this season.fa cup 1st(aslong as we beat arsenal along the way)2nd uefa cup,3rd league cup.im not going to be greedy and want 2 cups. aahhhhhh go on then lol.
  17. Coyboy
    Yea, that's not that surprising to be honest, but the problem for me this season is some of our performances have been so bad whereas a week later or earlier they have been superb. That's common of a growing team I guess. We won't be able to sum up this season until the end of course but if we don't get in Europe again, it will be a failure and I don't think any stats will hide that.
  18. justfookinhitit
    The issue this year is that the whole Premiership has stepped up a gear over last season, and the top teams are all earning more points. Portsmouth are "doing a Wigan" but I expect they will suffer towards the end of the season as injuries, suspensions etc will take a hold. Bolton are always up there and I can see us and them fighting for 5th place as the season draws to a close.
  19. SorrellSpurs
    What about...??

    Why not compare the exact games last year with this year to get a true comparison in terms of the premiership? Then weight those cup games by giving each team a factor compared to the 'average' premiership side and whether we played them at home or away.

    Watching those European games I believe they are completely different from the games we play in the premiership. They seem to give our players so much time on the ball which suits our style of play. I believe Jol set out his stall in the pre-season games we played. By playing against so many teams from the continent he readied the team for UEFA Cup football but this meant the players were underdone when it came to the pace and power of the premiership.

    I know we had a lot of harder games in the first part of the season but I still feel we were a little of the pace and it wasn't all down to the 'Carrick' factor.

    Anyway moving forward it would be interesting to do an analysis of where we think we can end up by looking at the points we took from the games left last season and then factoring in the congested timetable we've got. It certainly impacted on Middlesborough's season and they're still feeling the effects.

    Let me know your thoughts.

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