Sporting Index Premiership points spreads.

[fatpiranha]

SPIN have just issued their premiership points spreads for next season. Spurs are priced 65.5-67. I've bought at 67 for £100 a point. We managed 72 last season and with Sandro & Kaboul returning and Paulinho and Chadli added I fancy us to better that. Obviously if we sign Soldado and keep Bale 67 points looks like free money. The elephant in the room is obviously Bale. If he leaves the price will plummet .

The full list:

Man City 80-81.5
Chelsea 80-81.5
Man Utd 78-79.5
Arsenal 72.5-74
Spurs 65.5-67
Liverpool 64-65.5
Everton 52.5-54
Newcastle 44.5-46
Southampton 44.5-46
Swansea 44.5-46
WBA 43-44.5
West Ham 42.5-44
Aston Villa 42.5-44
Fulham 41.5-43
Sunderland 41-42.5
Stoke 39-40.5
Norwich 39-40.5
Cardiff 36.5-38
Hull 33-34.5
C Palace 30.5-32

Looking at the list i'm tempted to sell Newcastle.

Thoughts?

 

[wadewill]

i agree, also think having us at 40/1 to win the league is a great bet (to lay, we wouldnt stay the distance) if we managed to get Soldado and hangon to Bale.

But again, until Bale is 100% here, which will only be confirmed on September 3 I cant commit

 

[fatpiranha]

Norwich and Sunderland are both up 0.5 pts while Spurs and Liverpool have both drifted 0.5 pts lower, presumably due to speculation that Bale & Suarez will move on.

 

[fatpiranha]

Spurs down another 0.5 to 64.5-66.

Liverpool back up 0.5 to 64-65.5.

No reaction to Cardiff signing Caulker.

Obviously people still think Bale is offski despite today's ITK and Soldado's confirmed signing is not seen as significant.

 

[Mr.Writer]

SPIN have just issued their premiership points spreads for next season. Spurs are priced 65.5-67. I've bought at 67 for £100 a point. We managed 72 last season and with Sandro & Kaboul returning and Paulinho and Chadli added I fancy us to better that. Obviously if we sign Soldado and keep Bale 67 points looks like free money. The elephant in the room is obviously Bale. If he leaves the price will plummet .

The full list:

Man City 80-81.5
Chelsea 80-81.5
Man Utd 78-79.5
Arsenal 72.5-74
Spurs 65.5-67
Liverpool 64-65.5
Everton 52.5-54
Newcastle 44.5-46
Southampton 44.5-46
Swansea 44.5-46
WBA 43-44.5
West Ham 42.5-44
Aston Villa 42.5-44
Fulham 41.5-43
Sunderland 41-42.5
Stoke 39-40.5
Norwich 39-40.5
Cardiff 36.5-38
Hull 33-34.5
C Palace 30.5-32

Looking at the list i'm tempted to sell Newcastle.

Thoughts?

:O You must have very good credit!

 

[fatpiranha]

:O You must have very good credit!

Actually no. I've got the minimum credit (£500) from when I first opened an account 20 years ago. I think the minimum now is £1000. I get round it by always leaving a couple of grand in the account. Sometimes if I have a lot of open positions the online computer will refuse one of my trades but I just phone up and it's accepted without any question. The main reason I bet with SPIN is that unlike bookmakers they don't close your account if you are a consistent winner. SPIN will close your account if you are an obvious arber but otherwise they are pretty good. They will occasionally limit my trades on some obscure markets that I have a very good record on (such as offsides, youth football and UFC fights) but nowhere near as badly as the bookies do.

Anyhoo ... the big movers in the Premiership points market after the 1st round of matches are Arsenal -4; Aston Villa +3.5; Southampton +3.5; Spurs +2.5; West Ham +2.5; Fulham +2; WBA -2; Palace -2.

The market is likely to remain very volatile until the transfer window closes. In my experience people tend to react too much to good or bad early season form.

 

[Mr.Writer]

Actually no. I've got the minimum credit (£500) from when I first opened an account 20 years ago. I think the minimum now is £1000. I get round it by always leaving a couple of grand in the account. Sometimes if I have a lot of open positions the online computer will refuse one of my trades but I just phone up and it's accepted without any question. The main reason I bet with SPIN is that unlike bookmakers they don't close your account if you are a consistent winner. SPIN will close your account if you are an obvious arber but otherwise they are pretty good. They will occasionally limit my trades on some obscure markets that I have a very good record on (such as offsides, youth football and UFC fights) but nowhere near as badly as the bookies do.

Anyhoo ... the big movers in the Premiership points market after the 1st round of matches are Arsenal -4; Aston Villa +3.5; Southampton +3.5; Spurs +2.5; West Ham +2.5; Fulham +2; WBA -2; Palace -2.

The market is likely to remain very volatile until the transfer window closes. In my experience people tend to react too much to good or bad early season form.

I've never had much of an interest in spread betting (mainly because it sounds really dangerous!), but from the original list, I'd say maybe Swansea, Fulham and Southampton are buys.

 

[fatpiranha]

Man City 80-81.5 =
Chelsea 80-81.5 +2
Man Utd 78-79.5 +1
Arsenal 72.5-74 -3
Spurs 65.5-67 +3
Liverpool 64-65.5 +3.5
Everton 52.5-54 -2
Newcastle 44.5-46 -2.5
Southampton 44.5-46 +3
Swansea 44.5-46 =
WBA 43-44.5 -1.5
West Ham 42.5-44 +2.5
Aston Villa 42.5-44 +2
Fulham 41.5-43 +1.5
Sunderland 41-42.5 -1
Stoke 39-40.5 +1.5
Norwich 39-40.5 -0.5
Cardiff 36.5-38 +2
Hull 33-34.5 +1.5
C Palace 30.5-32 -3

The original prices are quoted and I have added the points they have changed by. Interesting to see that starting with 2 losses hasn't affected Swansea's price at all. Still no confidence in Arsenal despite 2 good wins. Buying Willian hasn't made any difference to Chelsea's expectations,

 

[fatpiranha]

Going in to the last weekend before the window shuts we are now rated equal with Arsenal at 69-70.5. Obviously Bale seems certain to go but despite our perfect start SPIN rate us as 1.5 pts weaker than last season. We might be impressed by our signings but it hasn't reflected in the price. By comparison Liverpool are rated 8.5 pts better than last season at 68-69.5. I still think our price represents good value and have had a couple more nibbles bringing my trade up to a buy of £150 per pt @ 67.9.

 

[fatpiranha]

Five matches in:

.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5......................... 79-80.5................................. -1
Chelsea...........................80-81.5......................... 78.5-80 .................................-1.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 ..........................75.5-77................................. -2.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 .........................74-75.5................................. +1.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 .........................70-71.5................................. +4.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5......................... 68.5-70 .................................+4.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................56-57.5................................. +3.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 .........................43.5-45.................................. -1
Southampton ...................44.5-46......................... 48.5-50................................. +4
Swansea......................... 44.5-46......................... 48.5-50 .................................+4
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .........................41-42.5 ..................................-2
West Ham....................... 42.5-44......................... 41.5-43 ..................................-1
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 45-46.5 .................................+2
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 40.5-42................................. -1
Sunderland ......................41-42.5......................... 35-36.5................................. -6
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................42.43.5.................................. +3.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................38-39.5 ..................................-1
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 37.5-39.................................. +1
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................36.5-38 ..................................+3.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................28.5-30................................... -2

Sunderland are the biggest losers while Liverpool and us are the biggest gains. I'm very tempted to sell Liverpool . I have bought Everton at 55 for £50 a point as I think they have a decent squad and manager, and the loss of Fellaini is more than compensated for by the loan of Lukaku, and they managed 63 pts last season.

 

[aliyid]

Fascinating... surprised Cardiff havn't seen more movement after the start they've made (beating City & Holding Everton to a draw)

Would agree on selling Liverpool, they're over achieveing at the moment and expect them to drop away a little now that Coutinho is injured. Also think Hull might be worth a punt at that spread after seeing their last couple of games and how Hudd/Livermore have controlled their midfield.

Good luck, would love to see how this changes over the season

 

[fatpiranha]

Fascinating... surprised Cardiff havn't seen more movement after the start they've made (beating City & Holding Everton to a draw)

Would agree on selling Liverpool, they're over achieveing at the moment and expect them to drop away a little now that Coutinho is injured. Also think Hull might be worth a punt at that spread after seeing their last couple of games and how Hudd/Livermore have controlled their midfield.

Good luck, would love to see how this changes over the season

I'll update every few matches if people are interested.

One interesting point to note is that the total pts for all teams combined is 13 pts higher than the original spread. About half of this can be accounted for by the relative infrequency of drawn matches so far this season but the rest is down to people buying more than they are selling. This is a common phenomenon as people will buy their own team which inflates the price. Unfortunately the spread is normally larger than this effect so you couldn't make a profit by blanket selling all the teams, although you'd make a smaller loss than you would by buying them all.

I'm less keen on selling Liverpool now that they are out of the Capital One Cup. Not being involved in Europe means there are fewer demands on their thin squad. Maybe i'll have a go once the January window has closed.

The trouble with buying teams like Cardiff and Hull is that the upside just isn't that big. The top 7 places in the premiership are pretty much locked up with the usual suspects. If you take the best case scenario, for example, a team like Swansea who were expected to go straight back down but ended up surviving quite comfortably. In the 2 seasons since they have been promoted they have managed 47 and 46 pts. Even if Cardiff and Hull were to do as well as Swansea (and that is unlikely) you would only be looking at a profit of 8 points. That's a point less than Everton just having to do exactly as well as they did last season (a far likelier scenario). Now take the worst case scenario, for example QPR, who were expected to easily survive (I think their initial quote was 42.5-44 last season) but ended up with 25 pts (a loss of 19 x your stake) .

If you fancy Hull or Cardiff to do well this season a far better trade would be to sell them on the premiership relegation index. Alternatively (and I would recommend this with any team with a thin squad where a couple of crucial injuries could make a huge difference) simply back them on a match by match basis,

 

[fatpiranha]

One of the better reasons to bet on the spreads rather than with the bookmakers is that SPIN are relatively slow to react to events that are not taking place on the pitch. For example you can often afford to wait for the team news in the cup matches and find out a side has made 10 changes to it's normal 1st eleven and the spreads may not have changed at all.

When Tevez and Mascherano signed for West Ham the quote for West Ham's premiership points took 2 days to change at all and then it only went up half a point.

Bookmakers are very twitchy about any prospect of losing money through reacting slowly to new information. Take for example this seasons premiership title race. After Citeh's impressive thrashing of Yanited last Sunday the price for City to win the premiership was slashed and now 15/8 is the best price available while you can get 100/30 on Chelsea. SPIN by comparison have only a tiny half point gap between the teams in the Premiership points index. Despite a week in which City won 3-0 away from home in Europe, thrashed Utd in the Manc derby and beat Wigan 5-0 in the cup whereas Chelsea had 2 unimpressive 2-0 wins at home to Fulham and away to Swindon sandwiching a home loss in Europe to Basle the 0.5 pt gap is exactly the same as it was last week.

Taking advantage of small bits of information is the key to winning on football spread betting. The sheer number of markets offered means there is always an opportunity to catch the spread firms out. An obvious example might be if you find Spurs are playing Defoe instead of Soldado in a televised league game. Now you might not think this makes a great deal of difference as to who wins the match but how do you feel about the offsides market?

 

[fatpiranha]

Six matches in:

.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5......................... 75.5-78 ................................ -3.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5......................... 75.5-78 .................................-3.5
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 ..........................72.5-74................................. -5.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 .........................74.5-76................................. +2
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 .........................70-71.5................................. +4.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5......................... 69.5-71 .................................+4.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................58.5-60................................. +6
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 .........................42-43.5.................................. -2.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46......................... 50-51.5................................. +5.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46......................... 48-49.5 .................................+3.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .........................44-45.5 ..................................+1
West Ham....................... 42.5-44......................... 40-41.5 ..................................-2.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 46.5-48 .................................+4
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 38.5-40................................. -3
Sunderland ......................41-42.5......................... 33-34.5................................. -8
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................40.5-42.................................. +1.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................40-41.5 ..................................-1
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 39.5-41.................................. +3
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39-40.5 ..................................+6
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................27.5-29................................... -3

What a difference a week makes .

Our draw against Chelsea made no difference to our quote. Chelsea however dropped 2 pts but due to Man City's loss at Villa SPIN have Chelsea and City joint favourites to win the Premiership. The bookies however see it differently and you can now get 12/5 about Man City compared to the best price of 15/8 available last week. Chelsea are still available at 100/30.

I'm very pleased with my buy of Everton who along with Hull have a top profit of 6 pts. Sunderland are dropping like a stone but the next biggest losers Man Utd have only dropped 2 pts more than Chelsea who have gathered 4 pts more than them so far. Despite Arsenal's fantastic start they have only gained 2 pts which suggests they were overpriced to begin with.

My other trades on Swindon pts in League 1 is showing a 2.8 pt profit but my star performer is my buy of Lukaku on the Premiership top goalscorer market which is showing a healthy profit of 8 x my stake. My only other long term trade is a sell of Ricky Van Dogspenis also on the Premiership GS market but this is just an attempt to steal a measly £20 at very low risk and will hurt me spectacularly if he's not as crap as I think he is .

 

[fatpiranha]

There was only 1 draw in the premiership last week which should mean the quotes overall should rise but in fact the total pts fell by 4 . Looks like SPIN are trying to encourage buyers or perhaps trying to dissuade some big traders from closing their buy positions.

This weeks Premiership Points market is kind of historic in that the top 6 teams are separated by only 7 pts . Nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of the premiership. The top teams are quoted at 75.5-78. In the last ten seasons the champions have amassed the following pts totals (most recent first) 89;89;80;86;90;87;89;91;95;90. SPIN confirm what we all suspect; that this season is going to be the most open and exciting title race in premiership history.

 

[browndchl]

I don't understand all this. Can someone explain how spread betting works in simple terms and the pit falls involved?

I do bet quite often but generally only on accm, both teams to score, players to score and correct scores.

 

[fatpiranha]

I don't understand all this. Can someone explain how spread betting works in simple terms and the pit falls involved?

I do bet quite often but generally only on accm, both teams to score, players to score and correct scores.

Spread betting is actually a lot simpler than ordinary betting once you get the hang of it. A good explanation can be found here - http://www.footballbettingdata.co.uk/guide/spread-betting.html

 

[fatpiranha]

After 8 games -

.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 78.5-80 ................................ -1.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5...........................78-79.5 ................................. -2
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 71.5-73 ................................ -6.5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 75-76.5 ................................. +2.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 68.5-70 ................................. +3
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 69.5-71 ................................. +5.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................59.5-61 ................................. +7
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 44-45.5 ................................ -0.5
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 53-54.5................................. +8.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 48.5-50 .................................+4
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .........................44-45.5 ..................................+1
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 41.5-43 ..................................-1
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 45.5-47 ..................................+3
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 41-42.5................................. -0.5
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 31-32.5................................. -10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................39-40.5.................................. =
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................38.5-40 ..................................-0.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 37.5-39.................................. +1
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................38-39.5 ..................................+5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................24.5-26................................... -6

Southampton have taken over from Hull as the best buy showing an 8.5 pt profit while in 2nd place my buy of Everton is looking good as they are 7 pts above their original quote. The home loss to West Ham hurt us badly, while despite topping the table Arsenal are only 2.5 pts above their original quote which suggests they were overpriced to start with.

At the other end Man Utd have performed comparatively even worse than Crystal Palace but the real losers are Sunderland who are languishing 10 pts below their original quote. Some of you may remember Sunderland beating us 3-1 in a pre-season friendly. Di Canio gambled everything on getting his players up to match fitness very early in the season. Not only did that tactic fail but it is likely to backfire later in the season as players succumb to exhaustion. There's a reason why pre-season form is a very poor indicator of what happens when the serious business gets underway. Poor Gus Poyet has been handed a poisoned chalice as Di Canio also brought in a lot of players who are patently not good enough and Poyet is unlikely to be given the funds to change the situation in January.

Meanwhile my buy of Spurs B (AKA Swindon Town) is looking good as they put together three impressive wins in a row in the league and can get even stronger now that Ryan Mason has returned from injury.

 

[fatpiranha]

After 9 games -

.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 77-78.5 ................................ -3
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 79-80.5 ................................. -1
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 72-73.5 ................................ -6
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 75.5-77 ................................. +3
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 69-70.5 ................................. +3.5
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 70-71.5 ................................. +6
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................61.5-63 ................................. +9
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 43.5-45 ................................ -1
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 55-56.5................................. +10.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 48-49.5 .................................+3.5
WBA ...............................43-44.5 .........................44-45.5 ..................................+1
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 41-42.5 ..................................-1.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 44.5-46 ..................................+2
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 40.5-42 ................................ -1
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 32.5-34 ................................ -8.5
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................39.5-41 ................................. +0.5
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................38-39.5 ..................................-1
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 38-39.5 ................................. +1.5
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................37.5-39 ..................................+4.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................24.5-26................................... -6

Despite picking up 6 pts from our last 2 games we are still a pt behind our highest quote before the West Ham loss. Understandable given our less than stellar performances.

WBA's loss to the bindippers didn't cost them at all while West Ham dropped half a pt despite what I thought was a good draw against Swansea. The Swans also dropped half a pt which suggests they were on the cusp of being half a pt higher last week.

Southampton remain the best buy having gone up 2 pts for a straightforward win against Fulham which seems overly generous. Everton also jump 2 pts with an away victory at Villa. Chelsea have leapfrogged Man City after their late, late show and are the new premiership favourites on the spreads. They are just about edging it with the bookies as well who go 9/4 about Chelsea while you can get 5/2 on Citeh.

The best sells are still Sunderland and Palace although Palace didn't get penalised at all for their home loss to the scum whereas Poyet's charges are a pt and a half better off for winning the Tyneside derby.

No sooner did I praise Swindon than they put in two consecutive losses . Lukaku was on the scoresheet again but so were Van Persie, Sturridge, Giroud, Soldado, Torres, Aguerro, Lambert, Rooney and of course a hat-trick from Suarez so he actually dropped a pt in the premiership goalscorer index .

Next week's highlight games see us travel to Everton and Arsenal host Livepool. Fingers crossed for 2 away wins .

 

[fatpiranha]

After 10 games -

.................................Original spread................ Current Spread.................... Difference
Man City......................... 80-81.5.......................... 77.5-79 ................................ -2.5
Chelsea...........................80-81.5.......................... 77-78.5 ................................. -3
Man Utd......................... 78-79.5 .......................... 73-74.5 ................................ -5
Arsenal ...........................72.5-74 ......................... 77-78.5 ................................. +4.5
Spurs............................. 65.5-67 ......................... 68.5-70 ................................. +3
Liverpool .........................64-65.5.......................... 69.5-71 ................................. +5.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .........................61-62.5 ................................. +8.5
Newcastle .......................44.5-46 ......................... 45.5-47 ................................ +1
Southampton ...................44.5-46.......................... 55-56.5................................. +10.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46.......................... 46.5-48 .................................+2
WBA ...............................43-44.5 ......................... 45-46.5 ..................................+2
West Ham....................... 42.5-44.......................... 41-42.5 ..................................-1.5
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44......................... 44.5-46 ..................................+2
Fulham........................,... 41.5-43......................... 38.5-40 ................................ -3
Sunderland ......................41-42.5.......................... 31-32.5 ................................ -10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .........................39-40.5 ................................. =
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .........................37.5-39 ..................................-1.5
Cardiff .............................36.5-38......................... 39.5-41 ................................. +3
Hull .................................33-34.5 .........................39.5-41 ..................................+6.5
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .........................23-24.5...................................-7.5

Some of you may be wondering how exactly SPIN calculate their spreads. It is actually done on a match by match basis. Losing a game you are expected to win will see a team drop more than losing one they are expected to lose. Man City's 7-0 thrashing of Norwich saw them only gain 0.5 pts (& Norwich lose 0.5 pts) whereas Newcastle's 2-0 defeat of Chelsea saw their spread go up 2 pts and Chelsea drop 2.

You will often hear managers talking about getting a good point but it is rare to see a team's quote go up after a draw. Most managers would rather get 3 draws than a win and 2 losses but the pts garnered are the same. The quotes for both us and Everton dropped 0.5 pts after our stalemate at Goodison.

The other factor in the quote is the weight of money for or against a team. Our loss at home to West Ham saw our quote drop a full 3 pts. As no team is 100% to win any match the 3 pt drop reflected not only the actual pts dropped but also the lowering of the betting public's expectation of our future performance.

This week saw Man City re-installed as favourites to win the premiership. Arsenal & Chelsea are now level in SPIN's quotes. By contrast the bookies offer best prices of 2/1 about Man City, 3/1 about Chelsea and 4/1 on Arsenal. In other words if you fancy Chelsea then bet on the spreads but if you favour Arsenal go to a traditional bookie.

Later on in the season the size of the spreads on the premiership pts market will narrow. At the moment there is a 1.5 pt difference between the buy and the sell quotes. This will drop to a 1 pt spread as we approach the half way mark in the season and narrow further after that. At this stage SPIN are rounding up or down to the nearest half pt. This will also change when there are fewer matches left to play and the quotes will go to the nearest 0.1 of a point instead of the current 0.5. Everton were narrow favourites over us to win Sunday's match so the fact that we both dropped 0.5 pts suggest that our current quote is rounded down while Everton's is rounded up.