spurs mental
Well-Known Member
- Mar 10, 2007
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Sorry but can someone explain what this is and how I an make some money out of it? Lol
Sporting Index Premiership points spreads.
- Thread starter fatpiranha
- Start date
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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- Thread starter
- #42
After 1 game:
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 83.5-85 ....................... +1.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 81-82.5 ....................... +1
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 76-77.5 ....................... =
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 72.5-74 ........................ -3
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 71-72.5 ........................ +0.5
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 65.5-67 ........................ +1.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -2
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 45-46.5 ........................ =
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ -1.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ +0.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 45-46.5 ........................ +3
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 40-41.5 ........................ -1.5
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ =
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ......................... 42-43.5 ......................... +2
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 36-37.5 ......................... -0.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 40-41.5 ......................... +1
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 .......................... 40.5-42 ......................... +2
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 37-38.5 ......................... -0.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ........................ 36-37.5 .......................... -1.5
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ......................... 31-32.5 ......................... -1
Unsurprisingly the biggest upset of the weekend also sees the biggest movements in the spreads with Man Utd going down 3 pts and Swansea moving to the same degree in the positive direction.
Unusually, Southampton also moved up despite losing at Anfield. Everton look harshly judged for their draw at Leicester and Spurs 10 man victory at the knuckledraggers saw my bet cover the spread. I can now get out for no loss (but I won't
).
Until the window closes we will see more movement than usual based on transfer activity (or even just rumour of transfer activity) but the markets should stabilise post window.
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 83.5-85 ....................... +1.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 81-82.5 ....................... +1
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 76-77.5 ....................... =
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 72.5-74 ........................ -3
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 71-72.5 ........................ +0.5
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 65.5-67 ........................ +1.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -2
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 45-46.5 ........................ =
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ -1.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ +0.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 45-46.5 ........................ +3
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 40-41.5 ........................ -1.5
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ =
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ......................... 42-43.5 ......................... +2
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 36-37.5 ......................... -0.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 40-41.5 ......................... +1
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 .......................... 40.5-42 ......................... +2
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 37-38.5 ......................... -0.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ........................ 36-37.5 .......................... -1.5
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ......................... 31-32.5 ......................... -1
Unsurprisingly the biggest upset of the weekend also sees the biggest movements in the spreads with Man Utd going down 3 pts and Swansea moving to the same degree in the positive direction.
Unusually, Southampton also moved up despite losing at Anfield. Everton look harshly judged for their draw at Leicester and Spurs 10 man victory at the knuckledraggers saw my bet cover the spread. I can now get out for no loss (but I won't
).Until the window closes we will see more movement than usual based on transfer activity (or even just rumour of transfer activity) but the markets should stabilise post window.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
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- Thread starter
- #43
After 2 games:
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 84-85.5 ....................... +2
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 82-83.5 ....................... +2
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 75.5-77 ....................... -0.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 71-72.5 ....................... -4.5
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 70.5-72 ........................ =
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 66.5-68 ........................ +2.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -2
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ -2
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ -1.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 42.5-44 ........................ =
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 46.5-48 ........................ +4.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 42-43.5 ........................ +0.5
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ =
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ......................... 41.5-43 ........................ +1.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 34-35.5 ........................ -2.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 39.5-41 ........................ +0.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 .......................... 40-41.5 ........................ +1.5
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 37-38.5 ........................ -0.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ......................... 35-36.5 ........................ -2.5
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ......................... 30-31.5 ......................... -2
Some interesting movement this week. Man Utd are in freefall dropping another 1.5 pts after the 3 pts they fell last week. This is clearly not purely based on their 1 pt from a possible 6 start (which would likely only see a total 3 pt drop) but rather a loss of faith That LVG will turn them around instantly. It shouldn't really coma as a surprise as Van Gaal has usually taken 2 seasons to improve his previous teams. Levy must be feeling a bit smug at the moment although time will tell if it is really a bullet dodged.
Swansea are heading in the other direction. They got a full 3 pt boost for last week's win over Man Utd and another 1.5 pts for a 1-0 home win over rank outsiders Burnley. This does look something of an overreaction as the teams they have beaten may just not be very good and they are still in danger of losing Bony before the window closes.
It's still a bit silly season with most people who trade early being fans or punters who are scared of missing out on the best price. My advice would be unless you are convinced you are onto a good thing then waiting until at least the transfer window has closed before trading is generally a sensible policy. Early season form tends to be erratic and the information you gain by waiting is usually worth the risk of missing the best price by a point or two.
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 84-85.5 ....................... +2
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 82-83.5 ....................... +2
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 75.5-77 ....................... -0.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 71-72.5 ....................... -4.5
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 70.5-72 ........................ =
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 66.5-68 ........................ +2.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -2
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ -2
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ -1.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 42.5-44 ........................ =
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 46.5-48 ........................ +4.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 42-43.5 ........................ +0.5
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ =
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ......................... 41.5-43 ........................ +1.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 34-35.5 ........................ -2.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 39.5-41 ........................ +0.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 .......................... 40-41.5 ........................ +1.5
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 37-38.5 ........................ -0.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ......................... 35-36.5 ........................ -2.5
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ......................... 30-31.5 ......................... -2
Some interesting movement this week. Man Utd are in freefall dropping another 1.5 pts after the 3 pts they fell last week. This is clearly not purely based on their 1 pt from a possible 6 start (which would likely only see a total 3 pt drop) but rather a loss of faith That LVG will turn them around instantly. It shouldn't really coma as a surprise as Van Gaal has usually taken 2 seasons to improve his previous teams. Levy must be feeling a bit smug at the moment although time will tell if it is really a bullet dodged.
Swansea are heading in the other direction. They got a full 3 pt boost for last week's win over Man Utd and another 1.5 pts for a 1-0 home win over rank outsiders Burnley. This does look something of an overreaction as the teams they have beaten may just not be very good and they are still in danger of losing Bony before the window closes.
It's still a bit silly season with most people who trade early being fans or punters who are scared of missing out on the best price. My advice would be unless you are convinced you are onto a good thing then waiting until at least the transfer window has closed before trading is generally a sensible policy. Early season form tends to be erratic and the information you gain by waiting is usually worth the risk of missing the best price by a point or two.
fatpiranha
dismember
- Jun 9, 2003
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It's always interesting to see how the spread markets react to big money transfers. Man Utd today signed Angel Di Maria for £63.9M 
, the 5th highest fee ever paid for a footballer. Not surprisingly this has affected Man Utd's premiership points spread. They are currently trading at 70.5-72; half a point down on yesterday .
, the 5th highest fee ever paid for a footballer. Not surprisingly this has affected Man Utd's premiership points spread. They are currently trading at 70.5-72; half a point down on yesterday .
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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After 3 games (and with the transfer window now closed):
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 85.5-87 ....................... +3.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 80-81.5 ....................... =
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 73-74.5 ....................... -3
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 70-71.5 ....................... -5.5
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 73-74.5 ........................ +2.5
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 64.5-66 ........................ +0.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 59.5-61 ........................ -3
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 42-43.5 ........................ -3
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 45.5-47 ........................ +1
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 45-46.5 ........................ +2.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 49-50.5 ........................ +7
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ -1
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 39-40.5 ........................ -1.5
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ......................... 41-42.5 ........................ +1
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 35-36.5 ........................ -1.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ +1.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 .......................... 41.5-43 ........................ +3
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 36-37.5 ........................ -1.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ......................... 36.5-38 ........................ -1
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ......................... 31-32.5 ........................ -1
This weeks big winners are Liverpool, Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton and Swansea who all go up 2.5 pts. In the case of the Saints and the Swans this is partly explained by having a good Deadline Day, hanging on to important players such as Bony and Schneiderlin while adding in other areas. Swansea are now the runaway best buy leaders on +7.
The big losers this week are Arsenal who drew at Leicester and the markets are decidedly unimpressed with their purchase of Danny Welbeck. Do they know something we don't? More likely it is the disappointment of missing out on Falcao as they drop 2.5 pts on the week.
Buying Falcao however hasn't stopped Man Utd slipping a further pt in the spreads. Like last season they are currently the best sell at -5.5. We were the 2nd biggest losers on the week dropping 2 pts although our Deadline Day dealings had no effect on our price.
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 85.5-87 ....................... +3.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 80-81.5 ....................... =
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 73-74.5 ....................... -3
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 70-71.5 ....................... -5.5
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 73-74.5 ........................ +2.5
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 64.5-66 ........................ +0.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 59.5-61 ........................ -3
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 42-43.5 ........................ -3
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 45.5-47 ........................ +1
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 45-46.5 ........................ +2.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 49-50.5 ........................ +7
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ -1
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 39-40.5 ........................ -1.5
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ......................... 41-42.5 ........................ +1
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 35-36.5 ........................ -1.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ +1.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 .......................... 41.5-43 ........................ +3
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 36-37.5 ........................ -1.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ......................... 36.5-38 ........................ -1
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ......................... 31-32.5 ........................ -1
This weeks big winners are Liverpool, Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton and Swansea who all go up 2.5 pts. In the case of the Saints and the Swans this is partly explained by having a good Deadline Day, hanging on to important players such as Bony and Schneiderlin while adding in other areas. Swansea are now the runaway best buy leaders on +7.
The big losers this week are Arsenal who drew at Leicester and the markets are decidedly unimpressed with their purchase of Danny Welbeck. Do they know something we don't? More likely it is the disappointment of missing out on Falcao as they drop 2.5 pts on the week.
Buying Falcao however hasn't stopped Man Utd slipping a further pt in the spreads. Like last season they are currently the best sell at -5.5. We were the 2nd biggest losers on the week dropping 2 pts
although our Deadline Day dealings had no effect on our price.
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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After 4 games
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 86-87.5 ....................... +4
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 79.5-81 ....................... -0.5
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 72.5-74 ....................... -3.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 71.5-73 ........................ -4
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 70.5-72 ........................ =
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 63.5-65 ........................ -0.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -2
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 39.5-41 ........................ -5.5
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-45.5 ........................ +0.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 48.5-50 ........................ +6
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 48.5-50 ........................ +6.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ -1
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 39.5-41 ........................ -1
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ........................ 40.5-42 ........................ +0.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 34-35.5 ........................ -2.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 43.5-45 ........................ +4.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 ......................... 44.5-46 ........................ +6
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 34.5-36 ........................ -3
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ........................ 35.5-37 ........................ -2
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ........................ 31.5-35 ........................ -2.5
Some big changes this week.
Southampton's demolition of Newcastle sees the largest move in the market; up a whole 3.5 pts. It is rare to see a team go up or down more than the number of points available for the result but the market has obviously decided that Southampton were undervalued. It could be an overcompensation considering how poor Newcastle are at the moment.
Also moving up are Leicester who gain 3 pts after their win at Stoke and Villa who gain 3 pts as well for their victory at Anfield. Again these are revaluations by the market rather than just the normal adjustment due to the win. Equally surprising is Burnley who gained 2.5 pts for their bore draw at Palace. It is rare to see a team go up at all after a draw let alone 2.5 pts but punters have obviously decided they are not as bad as they thought they were.
In the other direction the bindippers came down to earth with a bump after demolishing us last week. Newcastle are in freefall and join Liverpool in dropping 2.5 pts in the spreads.
We drop a further pt after our wasteful performance against Sunderland. For the first time this season we are below our opening spread price.
The Barcodes are pulling clear as the best sell at -6 overtaking Man Utd who rallied to -4 as their chequebook put QPR to the sword. Arsenal have quietly sneaked into the reckoning for the worst underperformer's prize at -3.5.
Swansea are still the best buy at +6.5 but Villa are coming up fast at +6. Their next 4 matches see them host Arsenal & Man City and trips to Chelsea and Everton. Yay! ... go on you Villains
.
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 86-87.5 ....................... +4
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 79.5-81 ....................... -0.5
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 72.5-74 ....................... -3.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 71.5-73 ........................ -4
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 70.5-72 ........................ =
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 63.5-65 ........................ -0.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -2
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 39.5-41 ........................ -5.5
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-45.5 ........................ +0.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 48.5-50 ........................ +6
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 48.5-50 ........................ +6.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 40.5-42 ........................ -1
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 39.5-41 ........................ -1
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ........................ 40.5-42 ........................ +0.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 34-35.5 ........................ -2.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 43.5-45 ........................ +4.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 ......................... 44.5-46 ........................ +6
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 34.5-36 ........................ -3
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ........................ 35.5-37 ........................ -2
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ........................ 31.5-35 ........................ -2.5
Some big changes this week
.Southampton's demolition of Newcastle sees the largest move in the market; up a whole 3.5 pts. It is rare to see a team go up or down more than the number of points available for the result but the market has obviously decided that Southampton were undervalued. It could be an overcompensation considering how poor Newcastle are at the moment.
Also moving up are Leicester who gain 3 pts after their win at Stoke and Villa who gain 3 pts as well for their victory at Anfield. Again these are revaluations by the market rather than just the normal adjustment due to the win. Equally surprising is Burnley who gained 2.5 pts for their bore draw at Palace. It is rare to see a team go up at all after a draw let alone 2.5 pts but punters have obviously decided they are not as bad as they thought they were.
In the other direction the bindippers came down to earth with a bump after demolishing us last week. Newcastle are in freefall and join Liverpool in dropping 2.5 pts in the spreads.
We drop a further pt after our wasteful performance against Sunderland
. For the first time this season we are below our opening spread price.The Barcodes are pulling clear as the best sell at -6 overtaking Man Utd who rallied to -4 as their chequebook put QPR to the sword. Arsenal have quietly sneaked into the reckoning for the worst underperformer's prize at -3.5
.Swansea are still the best buy at +6.5 but Villa are coming up fast at +6. Their next 4 matches see them host Arsenal & Man City and trips to Chelsea and Everton. Yay! ... go on you Villains
.Time for Heroes
Well-Known Member
- Sep 5, 2012
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Whats the minimum investment i can make then?
fatpiranha
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- Jun 9, 2003
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For this market the minimum stake is 10p a point. That applies to most markets but for some volatile ones you can trade as low as 5p a point.
Time for Heroes
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- Sep 5, 2012
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Thanks for quick reply.
I have read with interest for a couple of weeks.
Now looking at the current table would Newcastle be a good investment? Looking long term Pardew will inevitably be sacked and they may benefit from a new manager plus the new players bedding in a bit more.
However bad Newcastle are 39.5-41 looks low to me.
Would be interested on your thoughts.
fatpiranha
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An awful lot depends on whether you are willing to gamble on unknowns.
On the face of it it does seem a low spread price. So far Newcastle have lost 0-2 to Man City (which is to be expected), drawn 0-0 at Villa (not a terrible away result against one of the premiership's in form teams), drawn 3-3 at home to Palace (in a match they dominated) and got tonked 0-4 at Southampton (another in form team). Overall i'd say they have got about about 2 to 2.5 pts less than expectation but have dropped 5.5 pts in the spreads. This looks like an overreaction of about 3.25 pts. They are only likely to lose Check Tiote and Papiss Cisse to the ACN and they've only played one match between them so far anyway so that doesn't look a major factor.
A lot of questions remain though. Will Pardew get sacked? If he does who will replace him? Will the new manager get money to spend in January?
The best case scenario is if they sack Pardew and appoint Tony Pulis. I can only see that happening if they promise him substantial transfer funds. Not that Pulis has a great record in buying players but his organisational skills are unquestionable and from what he achieved with Palace last year (taking them from the worst performing team against expectation to by far the best) the spread price will almost certainly rise if he does become the new manager.
The trouble is that this is by no means guaranteed. There are strong rumours that Mike Ashley is looking to sell the club and if true he may not be willing to invest the sort of money that would attract Pulis. Also the likelihood of Pulis replacing Pardew will already be factored in to the price. Spread bettors aren't stupid and some people will have inside information. There is an old stock market saw that goes "Buy on the rumour, sell on the news". That's good advice in the stock market but not so good in football because the rumours so often turn out to be wrong. In football i'd wait for the news to be confirmed.
The other factor is that if they do appoint Pulis the spread markets won't be as volatile as the stock market or even the bookies. I'd be surprised if Newcastle went up more than 3 pts in the spreads on Pulis's appointment. When West Ham signed Tevez and Mascherano their spread price only went up 1 pt and it took 3 days for that to happen. When Man Utd signed Falcao the spread actually fell 0.5 pts
.My advice would be to wait and see. If Newcastle sign Pulis then by all means pile in (i'll probably join you
) but in my 10 years of spread betting the best advice I can give is that chasing the best price at the expense of gaining information is one of the worst mistakes you can make.Time for Heroes
Well-Known Member
- Sep 5, 2012
- 780
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An awful lot depends on whether you are willing to gamble on unknowns.
On the face of it it does seem a low spread price. So far Newcastle have lost 0-2 to Man City (which is to be expected), drawn 0-0 at Villa (not a terrible away result against one of the premiership's in form teams), drawn 3-3 at home to Palace (in a match they dominated) and got tonked 0-4 at Southampton (another in form team). Overall i'd say they have got about about 2 to 2.5 pts less than expectation but have dropped 5.5 pts in the spreads. This looks like an overreaction of about 3.25 pts. They are only likely to lose Check Tiote and Papiss Cisse to the ACN and they've only played one match between them so far anyway so that doesn't look a major factor.
A lot of questions remain though. Will Pardew get sacked? If he does who will replace him? Will the new manager get money to spend in January?
The best case scenario is if they sack Pardew and appoint Tony Pulis. I can only see that happening if they promise him substantial transfer funds. Not that Pulis has a great record in buying players but his organisational skills are unquestionable and from what he achieved with Palace last year (taking them from the worst performing team against expectation to by far the best) the spread price will almost certainly rise if he does become the new manager.
The trouble is that this is by no means guaranteed. There are strong rumours that Mike Ashley is looking to sell the club and if true he may not be willing to invest the sort of money that would attract Pulis. Also the likelihood of Pulis replacing Pardew will already be factored in to the price. Spread bettors aren't stupid and some people will have inside information. There is an old stock market saw that goes "Buy on the rumour, sell on the news". That's good advice in the stock market but not so good in football because the rumours so often turn out to be wrong. In football i'd wait for the news to be confirmed.
The other factor is that if they do appoint Pulis the spread markets won't be as volatile as the stock market or even the bookies. I'd be surprised if Newcastle went up more than 3 pts in the spreads on Pulis's appointment. When West Ham signed Tevez and Mascherano their spread price only went up 1 pt and it took 3 days for that to happen. When Man Utd signed Falcao the spread actually fell 0.5 pts
My advice would be to wait and see. If Newcastle sign Pulis then by all means pile in (i'll probably join you
Thanks, like i said im new to spread betting and will no means dive in. I am in the 'interested' stage and will monitor it for a while before making any kind of investment.
Saying that i am very tempted to take the £100 credit with a new account and sticking it on Diego Costa for golden boot!
fatpiranha
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Probably not a great idea given the current odds
.Even if he comes 2nd you lose money. If he gets injured ... ouch! Just ask people who've backed pre-season favourite Sturridge.
If I was having a punt on that market i'd either go for a buy of Pelle (has to finish in the Top 6 out of 16 quoted players to make a profit) or take a shot at Aguero having another injury hit season and sell him (break even if he finishes 3rd; profit below, loss above).
fatpiranha
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After 5 games
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 86-87.5 ....................... +4
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 79-80.5 ....................... -1
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ........................ 73.5-75 ....................... -2.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 69.5-71 ........................ -6
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 68.5-70 ........................ -2
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -3.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 58-59.5 ........................ -4.5
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ........................ -6
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ +1.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 51-52.5 ........................ +8.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 46.5-48 ........................ +4.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 42.5-44 ........................ +1
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 38.5-40 ........................ -2
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ........................ 40.5-42 ........................ +0.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 36.5-38 ........................ =
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 46-47.5 ........................ +7
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 ......................... 43.5-45 ........................ +5
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 37-38.5 ........................ -0.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ........................ 35-36.5 ........................ -2.5
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ........................ 31-32.5 ........................ -1
Our abject loss at home to bottom of the table WBA see us as the biggest losers of the week dropping 3 pts in the spreads. The honeymoon is well and truly over for Poch after 4 bad results in a row.
West Brom, Southampton, Leicester & Palace all gain 2.5 pts.
The new best buys list sees the Saints take over 1st place with +8.5 pts and Leicester up to +7. Swansea drop to the bronze medal position at +4.5.
Man Utd are now tied with Newcastle as the best sell at -6 with Everton at -4.5 now 3rd after losing at home to Palace.
Unlike last season when SPIN grossly underestimated the total pts won in the premiership they've got it almost spot on so far this time with only a half pt difference between the buys and the sells.
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 86-87.5 ....................... +4
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 79-80.5 ....................... -1
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ........................ 73.5-75 ....................... -2.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 69.5-71 ........................ -6
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 68.5-70 ........................ -2
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 60.5-62 ........................ -3.5
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 58-59.5 ........................ -4.5
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 39-40.5 ........................ -6
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ +1.5
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 51-52.5 ........................ +8.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 46.5-48 ........................ +4.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 42.5-44 ........................ +1
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 38.5-40 ........................ -2
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ........................ 40.5-42 ........................ +0.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 36.5-38 ........................ =
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 46-47.5 ........................ +7
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 ......................... 43.5-45 ........................ +5
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 37-38.5 ........................ -0.5
QPR ........................... 37.5-39 ........................ 35-36.5 ........................ -2.5
Burnley ...................... 32-33.5 ........................ 31-32.5 ........................ -1
Our abject loss at home to bottom of the table WBA see us as the biggest losers of the week dropping 3 pts in the spreads
. The honeymoon is well and truly over for Poch after 4 bad results in a row. West Brom, Southampton, Leicester & Palace all gain 2.5 pts.
The new best buys list sees the Saints take over 1st place with +8.5 pts and Leicester up to +7. Swansea drop to the bronze medal position at +4.5.
Man Utd are now tied with Newcastle as the best sell at -6 with Everton at -4.5 now 3rd after losing at home to Palace.
Unlike last season when SPIN grossly underestimated the total pts won in the premiership they've got it almost spot on so far this time with only a half pt difference between the buys and the sells.
Time for Heroes
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- Sep 5, 2012
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I don't see any teams that are a good investment there as the spreads look pretty accurate to me.
Missed the boat on Southampton and Leicester it seems.
Missed the boat on Southampton and Leicester it seems.
fatpiranha
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I think QPR and Villa might be sells. Before losing to Arsenal, Villa had 4 goals and 10 pts from 6 shots on target
. They can't continue to be that jammy. QPR are just drek; they even made Man Utd and us look good 
.Oh and whoever sacks their manager and gets Pulis in is definitely a buy.
sweetness
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West Ham looks tasty. Not by much mind.
fatpiranha
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With literally thousands of different markets available every day it's a bad policy to trade on ones you think are slightly wrong. You can afford to wait for markets where you think the quoted spread is very wrong. TBH the best bet is to specialise in an obscure market they are not paying much attention to.
Probably my best year betting on SPIN was when they introduced the 'offsides' market for live premiership games. There was little money traded on it so they had a blanket quote of 5-5.5 for all matches. Every Man Utd game went under and if Spurs were playing against a team that played offside you just had to wait for the team news and if Defoe was playing you could buy and fill your boots. After a few months they limited the amount I could bet on offsides, and the next season they had someone research the market and vary the spreads
. Still, it was good while it lasted, and I managed to win several thousand before they fixed their error.I could give loads of examples like this where if you do a little research you can find markets SPIN price up horribly wrong. Youth football, women's football, UFC fights (which they've stopped covering
) and things like penalty performances (research the ref not the teams) are all examples where SPIN have made huge errors in their markets which you can exploit with an hour on Google.Time for Heroes
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Fatpiranha,
If you didnt mind of course, i would quite like you to post the bets you make as i like your view and judgement of the markets.
Obviously no need to post the stake but possibly a point system instead?
If you didnt mind of course, i would quite like you to post the bets you make as i like your view and judgement of the markets.
Obviously no need to post the stake but possibly a point system instead?
fatpiranha
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I'm reluctant to do that for several reasons.
While I have no objections to posting my long term bets on here (in fact if you look back through this thread you will see that I did just that last season) they are relatively rare as most of my bets are placed either after the teams are announced or in running. Obviously for practical reasons posting those bets isn't possible. In fact i've only had 2 long term bets this season (buys of Spurs premiership points
and Diego Costa in the Golden Boot index).Another reason is that when I have done this in the past (on betting forums) people have tended to follow my bets but take worse prices (no matter how many times I tell them not too). People constantly underestimate the importance of getting value on their bets. It really is the difference between winning and losing and I don't want to be responsible for people losing money when I know this scenario will occur.
A further reason is that a lot of my bets are on obscure markets with low liquidity or (as I outlined in the previous post) on markets SPIN are not paying much attention to because not a lot of money is being gambled on them. I really don't want to draw attention to those markets especially as in the past some people who have followed my bets have a lot deeper pockets than I do. It really doesn't take a lot of money to move a price on an obscure market and when I think I have found a loophole the last thing I want to do is alert SPIN to their mistake.
I'm also no longer betting professionally. For the amount of money I can afford to risk i've found it really isn't worth my time to do the many hours of research required to make a steady living at it. Now I just do it as a hobby much as other people might do fantasy football.
Finally, of course, is the fact that i'm a lazy bastard
(& I doubt more than 30 people regularly read this thread anyway ) and I just can't be arsed 
.I've no problem with commenting on other people's proposed trades (as of course anyone else reading this thread is welcome to
) but i'd qualify that with saying that it will just be my opinion and not one based on detailed research (which is the only way to win money in the long term).
Last edited:
fatpiranha
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After 6 games
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 86.5-88 ....................... +4.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 80-81.5 ....................... =
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 72.5-74 ....................... -3.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 69.5-71 ........................ -6
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 67-68.5 ........................ -3.5
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 60-61.5 ........................ -4
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 58-59.5 ........................ -4.5
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 38-39.5 ........................ -7
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 44.5-46 ........................ =
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 54-55.5 ........................ +11.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 47.5-49 ........................ +5.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 42-43.5 ........................ +0.5
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 37.5-39 ........................ -3
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ........................ 39.5-41 ........................ -0.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 38-39.5 ........................ +1.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 44.5-46 ........................ +5.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ +4.5
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 38.5-40 ........................ +1
QPR .......................... 37.5-39 ......................... 33.5-35 ........................ -4
Burnley ..................... 32-33.5 ......................... 29.5-31 ........................ -2.5
The biggest gainers on the week were Southampton who went up a full 3 pts after their narrow home victory over mediocre QPR. This seems a bit of an overreaction while Man Utd's victory over West Ham doesn't see their price move at all.
We (rather harshly I think) drop another 0.5 pts after our derby draw while Liverpool drop 1.5 pts after their derby draw.
The Saints are now the runaway best buy at +11.5 while Swansea and Leicester are tied for 2nd at +5.5. Newcastle at -7 are edging Man Utd at -6 for the best sell while we and QPR now share the 3rd worst performing team against expectation spot at -4.
............................. Original Spread ............. Current Spread ............... Difference
Chelsea .................... 82-83.5 ......................... 86.5-88 ....................... +4.5
Man City ................... 80-81.5 ......................... 80-81.5 ....................... =
Arsenal ..................... 76-77.5 ......................... 72.5-74 ....................... -3.5
Man Utd ................... 75.5-77 ......................... 69.5-71 ........................ -6
Liverpool .................. 70.5-72 ......................... 67-68.5 ........................ -3.5
Spurs ....................... 64-65.5 ......................... 60-61.5 ........................ -4
Everton .................... 62.5-64 ......................... 58-59.5 ........................ -4.5
Newcastle ................. 45-46.5 ......................... 38-39.5 ........................ -7
Stoke ....................... 44.5-46 ......................... 44.5-46 ........................ =
Southampton ............ 42.5-44 ......................... 54-55.5 ........................ +11.5
Swansea ................... 42-43.5 ......................... 47.5-49 ........................ +5.5
West Ham ................. 41.5-43 ......................... 42-43.5 ........................ +0.5
Sunderland ................ 40.5-42 ......................... 37.5-39 ........................ -3
Hull ........................... 40-41.5 ........................ 39.5-41 ........................ -0.5
C Palace .................... 36.5-38 ......................... 38-39.5 ........................ +1.5
Leicester ................... 39-40.5 ......................... 44.5-46 ........................ +5.5
A Villa ....................... 38.5-40 ......................... 43-44.5 ........................ +4.5
West Brom ................ 37.5-39 ......................... 38.5-40 ........................ +1
QPR .......................... 37.5-39 ......................... 33.5-35 ........................ -4
Burnley ..................... 32-33.5 ......................... 29.5-31 ........................ -2.5
The biggest gainers on the week were Southampton who went up a full 3 pts after their narrow home victory over mediocre QPR. This seems a bit of an overreaction while Man Utd's victory over West Ham doesn't see their price move at all
.We (rather harshly I think) drop another 0.5 pts after our derby draw while Liverpool drop 1.5 pts after their derby draw.
The Saints are now the runaway best buy at +11.5 while Swansea and Leicester are tied for 2nd at +5.5. Newcastle at -7 are edging Man Utd at -6 for the best sell while we and QPR now share the 3rd worst performing team against expectation spot at -4
.
