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Stats say Liverpool will finish 4th!

aws_young

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2005
2,273
156
Of course, a big pinch of salt is needed but I found this fairly interesting.

SportingIntelligence.com have used statistics to predict the final standings of the Premier League using this basis:

1: Where the away team has already gained more points in previous Premier League games than the home team, an away win is awarded.

2: Where home teams and away teams have historically shared points, or the away team has gained at least a third of the points on offer, but not enough for a win, then we’ve predicted the game will be drawn.

3: The other 40 games are declared home wins on the basis that the away team has not done enough to warrant a win or a draw, historically.

More details here: http://www.sportingintelligence.com...-title-chelsea-arsenal-liverpool-next-290301/

Anyways, here is the table.

PL-prediction-2011.jpg

 

kaz Hirai

Well-Known Member
Nov 5, 2008
17,692
25,340
they are in magnificent form, i thought after the honeymoon period was over they would slump and finish mid table but they keep going so fair play to dalglish.

but i think 4th is beyond them, wouldnt rule them out for 5th though
 

Chilli

Well-Known Member
Dec 4, 2006
573
612
Nah cant see it, this years premier league has not been 'consistant' at all so its not going to change now imo.
 

sigurdl

Well-Known Member
Nov 7, 2004
1,290
32
The method looks biased against recent results. Man city have for example improved dramatically in recent years and should do better than this model predicts.
 

kdspur

Well-Known Member
Dec 23, 2006
3,084
883
we messed up with wet spam at home but with home games we have we have to be taken full points in all of them incl arsenal so that alone is 15 points plus i expect points at wigan and city so for me thats 21 + 49 = 70

anything from chelsea and liverpool away is bonus. for liverpool to get fourth or even fifth they are going to have to win simply every single game and hope we slip up big time let alone city
 

sloth

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2005
9,018
6,900
All this stuff is a load of bollocks. Good fun of course, but bollocks nonetheless!
 

PT

North Stand behind Pat's goal.
Admin
May 21, 2004
25,468
2,408
I have to laugh at M<anchester City's plight in this synopsis.
 

Hoowl

Dr wHo(owl)
Staff
Aug 18, 2005
6,526
266
Have they run back calculations on previous seasons to see whether there is any value in this method?

The method will obviously favour teams who have historically been successful, i.e. the SKY4, and be less generous to teams who have shown an improvement over recent years (Us and City).
 

haxman

Well-Known Member
Jan 14, 2007
16,911
8,146
Waste of time doing end of season predictors really. The league is too unpredictable. I do fail to see how City will only pick up 10 more points between now and seasons end though.
 

Such Small Portions

New Member
Feb 17, 2011
117
0
Obviously the caveat to all this is what William Goldman said: Nobody knows anything.

But, if you were forced at gunpoint (no, you're right, this isn't a likely scenario) to put a grand on us moving up a place or down a place (staying 5th means bet is null and void), where would your money go?

For me, it'd be down.
 

mark87

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2004
36,031
114,058
If Citeh actually finished 6th I would piss myself laughing.
 

SpursSince1980

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2011
4,731
14,439
yeah... ulimately it's about who can hit a purple patch during the last six games.

i sincerely hope this recent stretch of ours, is our seasonal swoon, and that we'll recover to make a serious run at 4th again.
 

Mr Pink

SC Supporter
Aug 25, 2010
54,770
99,330
Totally meaningless really.

I reckon if we can beat Wigan we'll have a huge opportunity with 3 homes games to follow...thats a run we need to go on before Chelsea away.
 

cheeseman

Well-Known Member
Oct 10, 2004
3,754
910
they are in magnificent form, i thought after the honeymoon period was over they would slump and finish mid table but they keep going so fair play to dalglish.

6 wins out of 15 under Dalglish. Frightening stuff!
 

Teddy10

Sonic Death Monkey
Jan 30, 2005
436
0
The thing with this prediction nonsense is that pretty much everyone here would have had us down to take significantly more than 2 points from Blackpool, Wolves and West Ham so therefore anyone can predict what the hell they like but the premier league always throws up surprises.
 
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