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The 667 Report (Part 4) and Rolling Form Guide

BoringOldFan

It's better to burn out than to fade away...
Sep 20, 2005
9,955
2,498
How It Works

Ignoring the old cliché of taking it one game at a time, I look at the season in two lots of 6, 6 and 7 games. At the end of each batch I compare this season's results with the same games last season. The promoted teams are paired with last season's relegated teams, so for Derby this season read the Watford result from last season, Birmingham is paired with Charlton and Sunderland with Sheffield United.

The Story So Far…

We came into the last batch of six games with 21 points compared to 26 from the same games last season. Bad as though our start was, by the time he was sacked Martin Jol had only secured one less point from the first ten games than he did from the equivalent fixtures last time.

Clive Allen dropped another in his one game against Blackburn, as we lost whereas last season we drew. Juande Ramos’ first 8 games brought us 14 points compared to 17 last season.

Now Read On…

We got 8 points in our last 6 games compared to 10 last season. We beat Reading at home again (and how!), but lost to Aston Villa away when we managed a draw in 2007. We matched two results when we lost away at Chelsea and beat Sunderland at home, dropped two points with the draw at Everton but picked up one by drawing with Manchester United at home.

What all this means is that we now have 29 points compared to 36 from the equivalent games last season. This means we are 7 points down on what we achieved last year on the way to our total of 60, with 13 games to play.

The Next Batch

Our next six games see us play Derby (A), Chelsea (H), Birmingham (A), West Ham (H), Manchester City (A) and Portsmouth (H). Last season we picked up a gob-smacking 16 points out of the 18 available, with a draw at Derby (Watford equivalent last season) and then winning all the other games.

It’s a mammoth task to get any where near that kind of form, but we showed a fair bit of resilience against Everton and Man U. The toughest assignments are probably Chelsea at home and Man City away. We play two of our top-half rivals in West Ham and Pompey at home, so we have to win those, even if they are densely populated by ex-Spurs players these days.

The Rolling Form Guide

The RFG graphs the number of points won from the previous 6 games. For completeness, the opening game shows the last 6 games from last season. As you can see, we ended on a high, getting 12 from a possible 18 points which equates to a Champions League place. An average of 2 points per game equals 76 points over a season, which should be enough for top four.

We go into the away game against Derby on a run of 8 points from a possible 18 from the previous 6 games. That is made up of the wins against Reading and Sunderland and the draws with Everton and Manchester United.

We had been on a bit of a run with four wins out of five so we went into the Chelsea game with 12 points from 18. But a loss there and the last two draws has seen us fall away somewhat.

With 13 games to go we need another 31 points to equal last season’s total of 60 points, which would almost certainly guarantee a UEFA Cup spot. But that would mean averaging 2.4 points per game, even more than the staggering 2.25 points per game we averaged over the last 12 matches of last season when we started from a way back and stormed to 5th place on the last day of the season.

An easier bit of maths is to aim for 55 points, which might be good enough for a UEFA place. That’s another 26 points to win, so a still-demanding 2-per-game average over the remaining 13. Reading got 55 points last season and finished one below Bolton and just out of the UEFA Cup spots. So the short story is that if we want UEFA Cup football next season we better beat Chelsea in the Carling Cup final!

080202rfg1ay5.jpg
 

sloth

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2005
9,018
6,900
I applaud the effort but the comparison is spurious. Perhaps it's interesting in the way quirky facts are interesting, but it tells us absolutely nothing new. We were sh1t earlier in the year and now we're good and I don't need a complicated form calculator to tell me that.
 

rabs

Member
Dec 6, 2006
242
0
thanks BOF. i always look forward to a bit of 6 6 7 action. 7 points behind on last season is quite a lot. i thought we were closer than that. Our problem is translating those recent good performances into 3 points week in week out instead of going so close like v Manu. i think we will put a good run together however and keep the dream alive of a top 7 finish until the last couple of matches but it increasing looks like other results would still have to go our way as well.

COYS
 

royboy

Member
Nov 3, 2006
95
0
thanks BOF - i too look forward to this report when it comes out. i sadly have a spreadsheet on the computer at work which i update weekly along the same lines.

although the way our rivals are going, i think we need more like 60 - 62 points to make a UEFA spot via the league (from memory - am at home drinking red wine now...).
 

ST

Shat on a turtle!
Mar 17, 2006
9,962
48
Work's a bit slow at the minute, isn't it BOF? :lol:

Good read anyway!
 

SpurSince57

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2006
45,213
8,229
If my sums are right, we took 21 points from the corresponding fixtures last season, which means we are, at a minimum, going to have to turn three of last season's defeats into wins. (And, of course, win and draw the same games we did last season.)

I think we can do that.
 

guiltyparty

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2005
9,023
13,524
I applaud the effort but the comparison is spurious. Perhaps it's interesting in the way quirky facts are interesting, but it tells us absolutely nothing new. We were sh1t earlier in the year and now we're good and I don't need a complicated form calculator to tell me that.

Isn't really the point, though, is it? We're doing better than we were earlier in the year, yes, but as these stats show, we need to do even better if want to get into Europe through the league. It's as simple as that really.
 

banks_18

New Member
Mar 16, 2006
201
0
Tough ask to qualify for the UEFA cup again from the league. There are numerous things we need to improve on, but the abilty to get out of the starting blocks quickly at the beginning of the season is one of the most important. We simply can't start another season like this one !!!
 

Simon0901

New Member
Dec 19, 2003
26
22
Or win the UEFA cup!

unfortunately YIDBOY thats wont help us i beleive as far as i have been told winning the UEFA cup doe not mean re-entry the next year the only ways to gain entry are
1, League Position
2, Carling Cup Win
3, FA Cup Finalist (dependant on winner)
4, Fair Play
5, Intertoto
 

sloth

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2005
9,018
6,900
Isn't really the point, though, is it? We're doing better than we were earlier in the year, yes, but as these stats show, we need to do even better if want to get into Europe through the league. It's as simple as that really.
What's better? If our performances since Ramos took over were a horizontal line then you'd be right but they've steadily improved, if they continue to steadily improve we'll do OK. As for qualifying for Europe through the league I think that's almost certainly out of the window and has been since the first third of the season.

The trouble with these quasi-scientific, home-made attempts at analysis is that they over-complicate what should be plain for all to see. I know a little bit about sports ratings systems as I work with them every day and a direct comparison between individual results one season to the next is spurious. The data-set, used in this fashion, simply isn't large enough, even looked at as a whole (in terms of Won, Lost, Drawn) you are struggling to find relevance. The result? You're back to using the evidence of your eyes and good old fashioned opinionated argument.

Here are the questions you need to answer:

Are we playing better now than before?
Do you think we'll qualify for Europe through the league?

If you try and answer wearing your non-spurs hat then i think you'll be pretty close to the true picture.
 

brasil_spur

SC Supporter
Aug 25, 2006
12,670
16,717
Nice work again BOF.

What annoys me is that the two teams that we will be up against in the league for a UEFA spot are Villa and Pompey - who are also the only two teams who we sold players to this Jan!!! If either Defoe or Routledge score against us in those games i'm going to be seriously stressed!!
 

guiltyparty

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2005
9,023
13,524
What's better? If our performances since Ramos took over were a horizontal line then you'd be right but they've steadily improved, if they continue to steadily improve we'll do OK. As for qualifying for Europe through the league I think that's almost certainly out of the window and has been since the first third of the season.

The trouble with these quasi-scientific, home-made attempts at analysis is that they over-complicate what should be plain for all to see. I know a little bit about sports ratings systems as I work with them every day and a direct comparison between individual results one season to the next is spurious. The data-set, used in this fashion, simply isn't large enough, even looked at as a whole (in terms of Won, Lost, Drawn) you are struggling to find relevance. The result? You're back to using the evidence of your eyes and good old fashioned opinionated argument.

Here are the questions you need to answer:

Are we playing better now than before?
Do you think we'll qualify for Europe through the league?

If you try and answer wearing your non-spurs hat then i think you'll be pretty close to the true picture.

That's all fine, but this supports that. Most logical Spurs fans would agree Europe through the league is unrealistic, and these stats say the same thing. Opinionated argument is fine, but an argument has stronger validation when supported by genuine research. It's not over-complicating it at all - as you say, it's an incredibly basic but viable way of seeing what we need to do.

It's not an exact science, but it's interesting and does, whether you like to accept it or not, give a tangible map going forward of the results we need. You, like myself, don't think we'll get into Europe through the league, but some people like to hope, and want to see what we need to get there. For that reason, this is useful.

Saying "we're steadily improving" is fine, but you can steadily improve and not get results, and football is all about results, at the end of the day.
 

PantherX

Active Member
Feb 2, 2004
557
39
Wow BOF really you went all out there to live up to your name.

I'm going to go lie down now.
 

royboy

Member
Nov 3, 2006
95
0
unfortunately YIDBOY thats wont help us i beleive as far as i have been told winning the UEFA cup doe not mean re-entry the next year the only ways to gain entry are
1, League Position
2, Carling Cup Win
3, FA Cup Finalist (dependant on winner)
4, Fair Play
5, Intertoto

uefa cuo winner gets automatic entry - has been for last two seasons from memory...someone correct me if i am wrong
 

Simon0901

New Member
Dec 19, 2003
26
22
uefa cuo winner gets automatic entry - has been for last two seasons from memory...someone correct me if i am wrong

Royboy.....bad news im afraid taken from the uefa site

The UEFA Cup was introduced for the 1971/72 season and features clubs that have qualified for the tournament from a variety of routes.
Eligibility
It is open to teams finishing in leading positions behind the champions in their domestic top flights, the winners of national cup competitions, the winners of the League Cup in certain countries, the eleven winners of the final matches in the UEFA Intertoto Cup, and three clubs from UEFA's Fair Play League.

Additional qualifiers
Certain national champions that do not qualify for the UEFA Champions League in a particular season also participate in that term's UEFA Cup. In addition, the eight third-placed clubs at the end of the UEFA Champions League group stage drop into the UEFA Cup, in time for the tournament's knockout phase.
 

royboy

Member
Nov 3, 2006
95
0
Royboy.....bad news im afraid taken from the uefa site

The UEFA Cup was introduced for the 1971/72 season and features clubs that have qualified for the tournament from a variety of routes.
Eligibility
It is open to teams finishing in leading positions behind the champions in their domestic top flights, the winners of national cup competitions, the winners of the League Cup in certain countries, the eleven winners of the final matches in the UEFA Intertoto Cup, and three clubs from UEFA's Fair Play League.

Additional qualifiers
Certain national champions that do not qualify for the UEFA Champions League in a particular season also participate in that term's UEFA Cup. In addition, the eight third-placed clubs at the end of the UEFA Champions League group stage drop into the UEFA Cup, in time for the tournament's knockout phase.
okay dug a little further - cause i hate being wrong - and it looked very much like i was until i found this little gem in the competition regulations! (they don't make it easy to answer a simple question do they...

[FONT=Arial,Bold]Title-holder[/FONT]
1.06 Unless the UEFA Cup title-holder qualifies for the UEFA Champions League
through its domestic championship, it will be guaranteed a place in the first
round of the UEFA Cup. If the title-holder does qualify for the UEFA Cup
through its domestic competitions, the number of places to which its national
association is entitled in the UEFA Cup does not change. If the UEFA Cup
title-holder does not qualify for either the UEFA Champions League or UEFA
Cup through its domestic competitions, its participation in the UEFA Cup will
not be at the expense of the contingent of its association.

ie if you win it and don't qualify the next year you still get in, and it would also mean an additional cup spot to england.​
 
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