BoringOldFan
It's better to burn out than to fade away...
- Sep 20, 2005
- 9,955
- 2,498
How It Works
Ignoring the old cliché of taking it one game at a time, I look at the season in two lots of 6, 6 and 7 games. At the end of each batch I compare this season's results with the same games last season. The promoted teams are paired with last season's relegated teams, so for Derby this season read the Watford result from last season, Birmingham is paired with Charlton and Sunderland with Sheffield United. Now read on...
The Story So Far…
Well we all know how lousy the first dozen games were for us. The first six brought us only 4 points compared to last season’s easily beatable total of 5, and only one win, at home to Derby in our third game.
The second six games proved no better; only four points from that lot, with draws away to Bolton, at home to Villa and away to Liverpool and Boro. Of course that was Juande Ramos’ first game in charge after Martin Jol and Chris Hughton left.
Now Read On…
The way the fixture computer threw up the list meant that we got 14 points from the 21 on offer in the same games last season in this batch. This time we ended up with 13, not too bad considering what went on before.
We had the same results this season as last at home to Wigan and Manchester City (wins) and away to Arsenal (loss), Worse results away to West Ham (draw this time, win last) and home to Birmingham (loss/win) and a better result at Portsmouth (a win instead of a draw).
So at the half way stage of the season we have got 21 points this season compared to 26 points last season from the equivalent games. For the record, one point has been dropped under Martin Jol, one under Clive Allen and three points under Juande Ramos.
The Next Batch
Our next six games are Reading (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (A), Sunderland (H), Everton (A) and Manchester United (H). Last season that lot brought us 10 points, with wins in the Reading, Sunderland and Everton games and a draw at Villa. It will be tough to win at Everton again as they’ve been flying of late, and Man United at home has not brought us many points in recent seasons.
But apart from Chelsea away, we should go into every game expecting to get something out of it. We didn’t play particularly well at home to Fulham but won 5-1. Towards the end, it seemed like Ramos and Poyet were making substitutions by drawing numbers out of a hat. Taarabt on for King? Don’t think we’ll see that many times this season. The result was that three of the back four moved into new positions and we still went on to score again.
So there’s a new-found confidence - certainly in the coaching team – which will be essential to claw back the points and get ourselves in contention for a UEFA Cup place.
The Rolling Form Guide
The RFG (see below) graphs the number of points won from the previous 6 games. For completeness, the opening game shows the last 6 games from last season. As you can see, we ended on a high, getting 12 from a possible 18 points which equates to a Champions League place. An average of 2 points per game equals 76 points over a season, which should be enough for top four.
But as the graph shows, we pissed that away as last season’s good form was replaced by our current misery. Even the slight upward turn after game 6 (Arsenal at home) was only due to previous losses being replaced by the Bolton, Villa and Liverpool draws. This got us up to 6 points, which from 6 games means 38 over a season and pretty much certain relegation.
By the time Juande Ramos took charge for our 12th league game at Boro, we had slumped down below a level where Points Are Not Tottenham’s Strength (PANTS), with only 3 points from a possible 18 from the previous 6 games. But then the line heads north, as the draw there marked an upturn in our fortunes. We go into the home game against Reading on December 29 on a run of three games showing UEFA Cup-qualifying form or better.
Looking back to last season, at the halfway point we’d just lost away at Newcastle, ending a good run of results which saw home wins over the likes of Wigan, Boro, Charlton and our first away win of the season at Manchester City. Our form was LWWWLW as we went into game 20, away at Aston Villa.
From where we are now to get close to 58 points for a fairly-certain UEFA Cup spot we need to average nearly two points per game. We can do this when we try, as we showed last season by averaging 2.25 points per game over the last 12 games. In Rolling Form Guide terms, that means roughly getting 12 points from any 6-game sequence, so four wins or three wins and three draws.
That’s a Big Ask as they say, but as noted in the 667 Report there’s no reason why we shouldn’t go into nearly every game between now and the end of the season expecting to win. The Centre Back Sick Bay is emptying, there’s a transfer window only days away, and The Wonder Of Wendy is beginning to have its effect on the squad and the results.
Ignoring the old cliché of taking it one game at a time, I look at the season in two lots of 6, 6 and 7 games. At the end of each batch I compare this season's results with the same games last season. The promoted teams are paired with last season's relegated teams, so for Derby this season read the Watford result from last season, Birmingham is paired with Charlton and Sunderland with Sheffield United. Now read on...
The Story So Far…
Well we all know how lousy the first dozen games were for us. The first six brought us only 4 points compared to last season’s easily beatable total of 5, and only one win, at home to Derby in our third game.
The second six games proved no better; only four points from that lot, with draws away to Bolton, at home to Villa and away to Liverpool and Boro. Of course that was Juande Ramos’ first game in charge after Martin Jol and Chris Hughton left.
Now Read On…
The way the fixture computer threw up the list meant that we got 14 points from the 21 on offer in the same games last season in this batch. This time we ended up with 13, not too bad considering what went on before.
We had the same results this season as last at home to Wigan and Manchester City (wins) and away to Arsenal (loss), Worse results away to West Ham (draw this time, win last) and home to Birmingham (loss/win) and a better result at Portsmouth (a win instead of a draw).
So at the half way stage of the season we have got 21 points this season compared to 26 points last season from the equivalent games. For the record, one point has been dropped under Martin Jol, one under Clive Allen and three points under Juande Ramos.
The Next Batch
Our next six games are Reading (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (A), Sunderland (H), Everton (A) and Manchester United (H). Last season that lot brought us 10 points, with wins in the Reading, Sunderland and Everton games and a draw at Villa. It will be tough to win at Everton again as they’ve been flying of late, and Man United at home has not brought us many points in recent seasons.
But apart from Chelsea away, we should go into every game expecting to get something out of it. We didn’t play particularly well at home to Fulham but won 5-1. Towards the end, it seemed like Ramos and Poyet were making substitutions by drawing numbers out of a hat. Taarabt on for King? Don’t think we’ll see that many times this season. The result was that three of the back four moved into new positions and we still went on to score again.
So there’s a new-found confidence - certainly in the coaching team – which will be essential to claw back the points and get ourselves in contention for a UEFA Cup place.
The Rolling Form Guide
The RFG (see below) graphs the number of points won from the previous 6 games. For completeness, the opening game shows the last 6 games from last season. As you can see, we ended on a high, getting 12 from a possible 18 points which equates to a Champions League place. An average of 2 points per game equals 76 points over a season, which should be enough for top four.
But as the graph shows, we pissed that away as last season’s good form was replaced by our current misery. Even the slight upward turn after game 6 (Arsenal at home) was only due to previous losses being replaced by the Bolton, Villa and Liverpool draws. This got us up to 6 points, which from 6 games means 38 over a season and pretty much certain relegation.
By the time Juande Ramos took charge for our 12th league game at Boro, we had slumped down below a level where Points Are Not Tottenham’s Strength (PANTS), with only 3 points from a possible 18 from the previous 6 games. But then the line heads north, as the draw there marked an upturn in our fortunes. We go into the home game against Reading on December 29 on a run of three games showing UEFA Cup-qualifying form or better.
Looking back to last season, at the halfway point we’d just lost away at Newcastle, ending a good run of results which saw home wins over the likes of Wigan, Boro, Charlton and our first away win of the season at Manchester City. Our form was LWWWLW as we went into game 20, away at Aston Villa.
From where we are now to get close to 58 points for a fairly-certain UEFA Cup spot we need to average nearly two points per game. We can do this when we try, as we showed last season by averaging 2.25 points per game over the last 12 games. In Rolling Form Guide terms, that means roughly getting 12 points from any 6-game sequence, so four wins or three wins and three draws.
That’s a Big Ask as they say, but as noted in the 667 Report there’s no reason why we shouldn’t go into nearly every game between now and the end of the season expecting to win. The Centre Back Sick Bay is emptying, there’s a transfer window only days away, and The Wonder Of Wendy is beginning to have its effect on the squad and the results.
