The Daily ITK Discussion Thread - 13th July 2015

[rawhide]

On the black-box bollocks. It's almost certainly a misreporting of an approach by journalists don't really understand.

A blackbox is something like a neural network where you shove a whole load of variables into the mix and ask a bit of software to come up with an optimum outcome, where you set what that benchmark is. It's a black box because the human doesn't actually understand how it works, it's opaque, just that it comes up with an answer.

Like most alchemical myths it doesn't really work as it should, not on something as immeasurable as an optimum team dynamic anyway; how can the computer test all the counter-factuals? It can't.

In something like the betting game - my area of expertise - you can at least rerun matches ad infinitum and look at the bottom line, or have some kind of model score. Even then it's hard to beat something designed by humans using their experience and judgement, but tested on the same data, I can't imagine how it would work on something like player recruitment. What I do know is that companies like mine start out hugely excited by the potential, and seeming pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, only to find out it's usually a croc of shit. It's people like me, not experts, who get inordinately impressed by very clever mathematicians explaining their toys to you, and we get led astray. That's why I'd be extremely worried about football clubs getting seduced by the hocus pocus.

Anyway there won't be any magical black box, at best there will be football experts using some sophisticated analytics to help them home in on particular aspects, thus focusing their thoughts and decision making. That's what we should hope Mitchell and his team are doing.

TL;DR

It's just a fucking computer program.

 

[rawhide]

Oh and on the first cabbage cryptic, Rob has previously mentioned that he'd be very happy with 1 of the signings (same set of comments as the joke signing comment) and on that basis I don't think it's Hernandez.

Not that anyone listens...

 

[spurs9]

Being miserable and treating other people like dirt is every New Yorkers God-given right!

For some reason I hate the phrase "God-given right".

 

[yiddo23]

For some reason I hate the phrase "God-given right".

That's because you don't have the IQ of a doorknob

 

[piedpiper]

For some reason I hate the phrase "God-given right".

It's your "God Given Right" to hate the phrase....

 

[gazzeh]

Completely agree, said this a month ago.

Song would be great

 

[Mr Pink]

Song would be great

Song, thought he had a serious injury which is to keep him out for months?

 

[woodward]

That's because you don't have the IQ of a doorknob

He can't handle that.

 

[Drexl]

3rd cabbage has to be a Mexican imho as Mexico won gold at the 2012 olympics

 

[mikeeegreen]

3rd cabbage has to be a Mexican imho as Mexico won gold at the 2012 olympics

Hector Herrera?

 

[kd2000]

It's been confirmed that the Alderweireld signing ruled one of the cabbages out.

Was it ruled out because of the signing??
Or was it said one cabbage wasnt now happening and it was coincidental that it was ruled out at the same time.
Did song and hernandez both not pick up injuries at the time we signed toby??

I dont remember seeing any confirmation that one cabbage wouldnt happen because of toby. Happy to be proved wrong

 

[kd2000]

Oh and on the first cabbage cryptic, Rob has previously mentioned that he'd be very happy with 1 of the signings (same set of comments as the joke signing comment) and on that basis I don't think it's Hernandez.

Not that anyone listens...

Maybe because people post things and say 100% or fact. Obviously then it means that it is 100% true or fact and cant possibly be wrong..........can it?

100% doesnt mean 100% and fact is rarely fact
Fact

 

[allatsea]

Song would be great

Certainly if you want an undisciplined player who just chases round the pitch after the ball he is your man.

 

[Hoopspur]

Michy Batshuayi and maybe even Thauvin (spelling) too. Package price - BOGOF on cabbages.

 

[GetSpurredOn]

Rabiot (or similar) as DM/CM now there are rumours of Stambouli wanted by PSG
Njie or Werner as WF/3rd CF
Batshuayi as CF

I'd be happy with that

 

[Sweech]

Hector Herrera?

Our ratboy quota has needed filling for some time now.

 

[faze_coys]

TL;DR

It's just a fucking computer program.

Aka football manager