What's new

The Just-Past Half-Term Report

JimmyG2

SC Supporter
Dec 7, 2006
15,014
20,779
Davidmatzdorf.

You keep forgetting to put a 'smiley' on David.

I am coming at this from the opposite direction. One of the ways that I used to earn my living was to expose the false use of statistics particularly their use in commerce and politics and more specifically in advertising.

What are 'bad statistics'? Surely all statistics are neutral. 'Bad statistics' can only be false or in some cases lies made up to prove a point as in politics and in medical journalism which I have been looking at lately.Statistics are so often misused that I am wary rather then frightened of them and people in general should be more aware that they can be used for manipulation.

I admit to being relatively inumerate and much of this thread has gone over my head but I certainly don't have a hidden agenda about the statistics produced and discussed here.

We are having a good season and though the results in the second half may return to the 'norm' as Aston Villa's and Hull's did last year the likelihood is that ours won't for the reasons I have already set out.

Am I making any sense at all? Or have I missed the point completely? Demolish my views if you like but put a 'smiley' on.
Fascinating stuff.
 

Shepspurs

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2006
2,224
2,338
Getting back to the theme of this thread and also throwing some more statistics into the melting pot.

It has been said that against our next 8 opponents, last year we managed just 1 point. To show how bad this was, the previous 5 years were as follows:

2007/08 10 points
2006/07 11
2005/06 14
2004/05 14
2003/04 11

An average of 12 points. Therefore, if we get 12 points from our next 8 games, (and I think I could have put "only" in front of that), we will be 13 points in front of last year and 2 points in front of season 2005/06.

It doesn't prove anything but makes me feel good.
 

davidmatzdorf

Front Page Gadfly
Jun 7, 2004
18,106
45,030
What are 'bad statistics'? Surely all statistics are neutral. 'Bad statistics' can only be false or in some cases lies made up to prove a point as in politics and in medical journalism which I have been looking at lately.Statistics are so often misused that I am wary rather then frightened of them and people in general should be more aware that they can be used for manipulation.

What I mean by "bad statistics" is exactly what you have written - and indeed what I wrote once or twice already in this thread - statistics that are manipulated and misused. The numbers are the numbers, as you say. But you can select numbers and you can couch them in biased language.

I prefer to look hard at numbers, with a critical eye, than to run away from them. I've read that phrase "statistics can be used to prove anything you like" scores of times and the motivation or the agenda behind it always seems to be similar: the writer doesn't understand the difference between well-chosen figures, used in a spirit of enquiry to learn something, and selectively-chosen figures, used in a spirit of malice to manipulate people and to arrive at a predetermined conclusion. So they use this throwaway line to reject all statistical analysis as useless and suspect.

I've already used the baby/bathwater cliché once in this thread, so I'll use another cliché instead: cutting off one's statistical nose to spite one's statistical face. It doesn't advance anything to say "statistics can be used to prove anything you like" - it just leaves the person who says it in a state of wilful ignorance.
 

gloryglory

Well-Known Member
Oct 19, 2004
1,537
302
I like this thread, I wish I'd found it earlier. As something of a statistician, I'd like to wade into the philosophical debate and then into the footballing one.

Can you use statistics to prove anything? No. Statistics can be sued to "prove" only that which is true, because you can't prove a falsehood. Statistics can be used to support many arguments, but ultimately those arguments can normally be questioned. Personally I think the statistics in this thread are pretty persuasive if you are arguing that "Spurs are not going backwards" - because nobody has found a statistic that suggests we are going backwards. But the pace of progress, or whether this is progress or stagnation, is unproven.

My instinct is that Manchester United, Everton and Liverpool's decline is more marked than our improvement. I think we'll probably finish 6th. The date-for-date comparison is interesting, and the fact that we had 34 points at halfway so are on course for 68
is positive - but four teams had more points at halfway than we did, so surely that's the pertinent point? If the team in 5th has never got 68 points, then the odds are that one team will fail to emulate its form from the first half of the season - and given that we were the furthest from 68, it seems likeliest to be us. The evidence of my eyes supports that, in that I think we've played our best football and are still struggling to keep pace with out of sorts City and United sides and an inconsistent Arsenal one. Liverpool can easily string 7 wins together too, and we can't.

And now my question. Apparently we got 68 points from 38 games in 2009 - how many teams got more than that? Can we have a 2009 league table please?
 

Son_Of

SC Supporter
Aug 22, 2008
4,260
15
The evidence of my eyes supports that, in that I think we've played our best football and are still struggling to keep pace with out of sorts City and United sides and an inconsistent Arsenal one. Liverpool can easily string 7 wins together too, and we can't.

we need to hope that neither city or liverpool goes on a great run. fortunately this is not entirely out of our hands as we have both yet to play. if we beat liverpool, it's more criticism heaped on rafa, discontent from their fans - who after all don't want to be aiming for 4th!
 

BoringOldFan

It's better to burn out than to fade away...
Sep 20, 2005
9,955
2,498
Thank you for so many interesting replies. I've enjoyed reading them - and seeing some different points of view. To reply to some of the specific points:

berbie38 - I think the games are different. Last season we finished away at Liverpool. This season it's away at Burnley. If we need a win to get 4th, which ground would say that's more likely? I take your point about form, but I still think there's a difference between a good Burnley side and a good Liverpool one!

Shepspurs - of course the only one that matters is the number of points after 38 games. But SC would be a pretty empty place if we had to wait until then to discuss things :wink:

jenko: "Statistics will never prove anything about the future." So true. But they can indicate trends.

smu01mhw: "If we had 2 points after the first 8 games of last season, why does the graph show us at around the 18 point mark?" If you mean the top graph which shows the form, I used some from the end of last season to make up the 6 games.

davidmatzdorf - I really enjoyed reading all your contributions.

SS57 and DC_Boy - good to see you!

It is always worth remembering that statistics prove nothing. They can be used to illustrate a point or support a theory. I was told that by an Economics teacher who pointed out that in the early part of the 20th century, the rise in population in the UK closely followed the trend for banana imports. But not caused by it. :wink:

Perhaps it was best described like this...

"Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts."
Aberdeen manager Ebbe Skovdahl in 2001 when hearing that Arild Stavrum had more shots on target than Henrik Larsson.

Keep warm!
 

BoringOldFan

It's better to burn out than to fade away...
Sep 20, 2005
9,955
2,498
As a post script to my initial post, we have now completed the run of 11 games that last season brought us a princely 4 points. It began with Blackburn away on December 19, when we had two points less than we did from the same games last season. But following the win against Everton on Sunday 28 February (which we lost last time), we've managed to get 19 points from those 11 games, and so have soared ahead of last season's points total at this stage by 13 points.
 
Top