The UEFA Nations League

[SugarRay]

5-2 now Incredible come back by the Swiss.

Just need Holland to get at least a draw against Germany and the final four will be:

• England
• Switzerland
• Holland
• Portugal

Home advantage might swing it for Portugal in the betting but I’d make us favourites out of them four.

 

[buckley]

I am confessing to a guilty secret that is for the first time since Gazza;Sheringham ;Waddle and Anderston played I am actually enjoying watching England

 

[Cornpattbuck]

Awesome stufff by the Swiss. Belgium really missing Jan at the back.

Toby needs to sort his head out. Gone from one of the best defenders I've ever seen to a guy I really wish we'd bench. Can only imagine something **** has happened behind the scenes because he always came across as a gent. Hope he works it out, signs a new deal and becomes the Toby we all love again.

 

[Cornpattbuck]

I am confessing to a guilty secret that is for the first time since Gazza;Sheringham ;Waddle and Anderston played I am actually enjoying watching England

Hoddle in the 98 era was awesome. But yes this is good. And it's going to get better. We've got so much talent coming through. Ridiculous amounts.

I'm pleased Garth's the lad doing it rather than a mercenary - whether Sam Allardici, Harry Redjnapio or Fabio Ericcsen.

Southgate is a lovely guy who was a smart footballer and seems a decent coach, or at least motivator of coaches. At international level, he could be perfect.

 

[Lilbaz]

I am confessing to a guilty secret that is for the first time since Gazza;Sheringham ;Waddle and Anderston played I am actually enjoying watching England

Agree to a bit. The team isn't as good yet. But the youngsters coming through will make this team special, not just sancho. The world cup was a bit lucky. We never beat anyone special but we're getting better.

 

[TheChosenOne]

Today's games..

17.00
Andorra v Latvia
Georgia v Kazakhstan Sky 401/403
19.45
Germany v Nederland Sky 401
Denmark v Rep of Ireland Sky 403
Bulgaria v Slovenia
Cyprus v Norway
Liechtenstein v Armenia
FYR Macedonia v Gibraltar
Czech Rep v Slovakia

Maybe some red button action ?

 

[Saoirse]

Relevance of the various games today. However, all teams other than those who've already won their group could also at least potentially influence whether they end up with a Playoff spot for Euro 2020 (and which league's playoffs they enter), which is unknown until after standard qualifying for that tournament is completed next year.

Andorra vs Latvia (D1, 17.00)

Whoever wins this is likely to be in Pot 5 rather than Pot 6 for Euro 2020 qualifying, giving them a better chance to actually win a couple of games.

Georgia vs Kazakhstan (D1, 17.00)

Georgia have already won the group, but victory secures them League D's only place in Pot 4 - anything else leaves them in Pot 5. There's also maybe a 1% chance of Kazakhstan falling into Pot 6 if they're destroyed and other results go against them.

Germany vs Netherlands (A1, 19.45)

A point for the Netherlands sees them qualify for the semi-final ahead of France. Germany are relegated, but they need to match Poland's result away to Portugal tomorrow (or only do worse by 1 GD) to secure a place in Pot 1.

Czechia vs Slovakia (B1, 19.45)

A draw for Czechia is enough for them to stay in League B and secure a place in Pot 2, relegating Slovakia. But a Slovakia win sees them survive and secure a Pot 2 place while Czechia are relegated.

Denmark vs Ireland (B4, 19.45)

A total dead-rubber for Denmark, while Ireland are playing only to possibly improve their chances of a Playoff spot.

Bulgaria vs Slovenia (C3, 19.45)

Bulgaria need to better Norway's result against Cyprus by at least 1 GD to win the group, promotion to League B, and secure a Euro 2020 Playoff spot. Slovenia are playing only to possibly improve their (very unlikely) chances of a Playoff spot.

Cyprus vs Norway (C3, 19.45)

Norway need to match Bulgaria's result down to GD to win the group, promotion to League B, and secure a Euro 2020 Playoff spot. Cyprus need to win OR to match Montengro's result agaisnt Romania tomorrow in order to avoid relegation. Additionally, if they do worse than Montengro by one goal scored (e.g. draw 1-1 while Montengro draw 2-2), they'll be equal (after results against 4th-placed teams are removed) on points, goal difference, goals scored, away goals scored, wins and away wins, meaning relegation would go down to disciplinary points acquired ignoring matches against 4th-placed teams (simple, right?). On this metric the lower is better, Cyprus have 7 compared to Montengro's 12, and both will get 1 for each yellow card, 3 for each red card (including a double-yellow), and 4 for a yellow followed by a straight red in their remaining game - so Cyprus will survive unless they get at least e.g. a red and two yellows. If they draw on this metric however it goes down to UEFA Coefficient, on which Montengro would survive. Anything worse than this sees Cyprus relegated.

Liechtenstein vs Armenia (D4, 19.45)

Victory for Liechtenstein likely puts them in Pot 5 if Gibraltar lose to Macedonia. Armenia can win the group, promotion to League C, and secure a Euro 2020 Playoff spot if they win and Macedonia lose to Gibraltar.

Macedonia vs Gibraltar (D4, 19.45)

A point for Macedonia is enough to win the group, promotion to League C, and secure a Euro 2020 Playoff spot. A victory may also see them into Pot 4 if Georgia fail to beat Kazakhstan over in D1. A point for Gibraltar is enough to secure them a place in Pot 5, although they will secure this regardless if Andorra vs Latvia in D1 is a draw, or the Faroe Islands fail to beat Malta in D2 tomorrow.

 

[Marty]

Bulgaria vs Slovenia (C3, 19.45)

Bulgaria need to better Norway's result against Cyprus by at least 1 GD to win the group, promotion to League B, and secure a Euro 2020 Playoff spot. Slovenia are playing only to possibly improve their (very unlikely) chances of a Playoff spot.

Cyprus vs Norway (C3, 19.45)

Norway need to match Bulgaria's result down to GD to win the group, promotion to League B, and secure a Euro 2020 Playoff spot. Cyprus need to match Montengro's result agaisnt Romania tomorrow in order to avoid relegation. Additionally, if they do worse than Montengro by one goal scored (e.g. draw 1-1 while Montengro draw 2-2, or win 1-0 whie Montengro win 2-1), they'll be equal (after results against 4th-placed teams are removed) on points, goal difference, goals scored, away goals scored, wins and away wins, meaning relegation would go down to disciplinary points acquired ignoring matches against 4th-placed teams (simple, right?). On this metric the lower is better, Cyprus have 7 compared to Montengro's 12, and both will get 1 for each yellow card, 3 for each red card (including a double-yellow), and 4 for a yellow followed by a straight red in their remaining game - so Cyprus will survive unless they get at least e.g. a red and two yellows. If they draw on this metric however it goes down to UEFA Coefficient, on which Montengro would survive. Anything worse than this sees Cyprus relegated.

Great stuff, but this stuff on Cyprus can't be right.

Slovenia are relegated from this group already on a worse H2H record than Cyprus, regardless of their respective results tonight. Cyprus have literally nothing to play for other than improving their very small playoff chance. Four teams go down - one from each group - and four go up so why would Cyprus be in danger of relegation because of whatever Montenegro do when they're in different groups? I may have missed something in the rules but this I don't understand at all.

EDIT: For the record, all four teams who drop from C to D are already decided. Albania from group 1, Estonia from 2, Slovenia from 3, and Lithuania from 4. Surely that means Cyprus are out of the woods?

 

[Saoirse]

Great stuff, but this stuff on Cyprus can't be right.

Slovenia are relegated from this group already on a worse H2H record than Cyprus, regardless of their respective results tonight. Cyprus have literally nothing to play for other than improving their very small playoff chance. Four teams go down - one from each group - and four go up so why would Cyprus be in danger of relegation because of whatever Montenegro do when they're in different groups? I may have missed something in the rules but this I don't understand at all.

EDIT: For the record, all four teams who drop from C to D are already decided. Albania from group 1, Estonia from 2, Slovenia from 3, and Lithuania from 4. Surely that means Cyprus are out of the woods?

That's where you're wrong (and a mistake I made before looking again and editing too). It's because League C has different sized groups - C1 (the Scotland group) only has three teams, and doesn't have a fourth-seed, unlike C2/C3/C4. Therefore, the teams that finish 4th in C2/C3/C4 go down, alongside the worst of the four 3rd-placed teams, but ignoring their results against the team in 4th. So while Cyprus have 5 points and Montengro have 7, both are currently only on 1 on this measure because the rest of their points came agaisnt teams who will finish 4th in their groups. Meanwhile Albania have 3, so if Cyprus don't win they'll do worse then them, and worse than Greece (6+3 against the 4th-placed team), meaning it's between them and Montengro. If either Cyprus or Montengro fail to win then Albania will survive despite finishing bottom of C1.

 

[Dougal]

Denmark vs Ireland (B4, 19.45)

A total dead-rubber for Denmark, while Ireland are playing only to possibly improve their chances of a Playoff spot.

I think you’ll find we’re only playing as we are contractually obliged.

 

[Marty]

That's where you're wrong (and a mistake I made before looking again and editing too). It's because League C has different sized groups - C1 (the Scotland group) only has three teams, and doesn't have a fourth-seed, unlike C2/C3/C4. Therefore, the teams that finish 4th in C2/C3/C4 go down, alongside the worst of the 3rd-placed teams, but ignoring their results against the team in 4th. So while Cyprus have 5 points and Montengro have 7, both are currently only on 1 on this measure because the rest of their points came agaisnt teams who will finish 4th in their groups. Meanwhile Albania have 3, so if Cyprus don't win they'll do worse then them, and worse for Greece (6+3 against the 4th-placed team), meaning it's between them and Montengro. If either Cyprus or Montengro fail to win then Albania will survive despite finishing bottom of C1.

Holy mother of what the actual fuck.

That is just stupidly unnecessarily complicated.

 

[Saoirse]

Holy mother of what the actual fuck.

That is just stupidly unnecessarily complicated.

Definitely not simple but I can see the reasoning. Wouldn't be too fair to give all the 3rd seeds a chance to stay up just be beating a 4th seeded team, except for one at random who'd have to finish above a 2nd or 1st seed instead.

The other option going forwards is that UEFA could get one more member which would then let League C have 16 teams and a normal relegation system. The most obvious candidates for this are Monaco (the only independent state in Europe not yet members other than the Vatican) or Greenland (a territory of Denmark, but decently well organised, Denmark supports their bid, and CAS ruled that UEFA can't refuse applications solely because a territory isn't 100% independent.

 

[TheChosenOne]

I think you’ll find we’re only "appearing" as we are contractually obliged.

Making up the numbers and hoping CE has nice stroll out there tonight.

 

[Saoirse]

I think you’ll find we’re only playing as we are contractually obliged.

Not far off. Looking at it Ireland are pretty likely to reach the playoffs regardless. If they fail to win they need 15 of the 22 teams above them in the Nations League to qualify automatically, whereas if they win they only need 13 of the 20 to do so. The difference may well be whether they go into the League B playoffs with teams only slightly better than them, or get pulled into the League A playoffs potentially against a big side or two who've messed up their qualifying campaign.

 

[Marty]

Definitely not simple but I can see the reasoning. Wouldn't be too fair to give all the 3rd seeds a chance to stay up just be beating a 4th seeded team, except for one at random who'd have to finish above a 2nd or 1st seed instead.

The other option going forwards is that UEFA could get one more member which would then let League C have 16 teams and a normal relegation system. The most obvious candidates for this are Monaco (the only independent state in Europe not yet members other than the Vatican) or Greenland (a territory of Denmark, but decently well organised, Denmark supports their bid, and CAS ruled that UEFA can't refuse applications solely because a territory isn't 100% independent.

I'd say the more logical solution would've been to have four groups of four teams in League C and rather have one group with three teams in League D since relegation isn't an issue in that division.

 

[Dougal]

Not far off. Looking at it Ireland are pretty likely to reach the playoffs regardless. If they fail to win they need 15 of the 22 teams above them in the Nations League to qualify automatically, whereas if they win they only need 13 of the 20 to do so. The difference may well be whether they go into the League B playoffs with teams only slightly better than them, or get pulled into the League A playoffs potentially against a big side or two who've messed up their qualifying campaign.

Yeah. That’s what I was thinking.

 

[Saoirse]

I'd say the more logical solution would've been to have four groups of four teams in League C and rather have one group with three teams in League D since relegation isn't an issue in that division.

That could make sense. Reason they didn't if I recall correctly is because the teams in the small League D group would find it very hard to arrange friendlies on their two empty slots. All the other European diddy teams would have Nations League fixtures, the bigger ones won't be interested in friendlies against League D sides, and ditto for most smaller non-European teams who'd find the costs associated a pointless expense. And UEFA have forced everybody to play friendlies in all empty slots because not doing so raises your FIFA Ranking (which is based on ranking points collected per game, with friendlies attracting less and therefore dragging your ranking down even if you do well), which would give nations who didn't play them an advantage in seeding for World Cup qualifiers (this is a strategy Wales among others used succesfully before it was banned).

 

[Dougal]

Starting with 6 defenders tonight. Looks like I’ll be sat on the couch singing ‘Let’s pretend we had a shot’...

 

[Saoirse]

Georgia defeat Kazakhstan 2-1 and will therefore be in Pot 4 for the Euro 2020 qualifiers. Andorra got a 0-0 with Latvia which is pretty decent for them but leaves them both in Pot 6 regardless.

 

[Marty]

The Krauts are demolishing the Clogs. 2-0 after 20 minutes.

France group winners there unless Holland stage a sensational comeback.