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Tomorrow - Must win?

sloth

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2005
9,018
6,900
Surely you always need the points?

I wouldn't call it a must win but we do need to win it. Losing wouldn't mean we'd have to write 4th place off but it would be a lot harder to achieve if we don't

We could go 12th with a win but I'm hoping that Fulham win too so we'd be 13th but close to Blackburn who are more of a threat than Fulham

I love your optimism, but your living in cloud cuckoo land. Your hope is akin to being 3-0 down to Utd at O.T. at half time and believing we can still win it.

Here's a bit of simple maths, assuming 60 points would be enough for 5th (big assumption) we would need to score an average of 1.96 points a game between now and the end of the season. To put that in perspective, that sort of form for an entire season would accrue 74.48 points and would have secured third by a large margin last year.

If we think last years points tally of 68 by Arse and Liv is enough for fourth this year then we will need to average 2.28 points a game. Again repeated throughout the course of whole season that sort of return would see us reach 86.64 points, last year that would have put us above Chelsea in second and less than three adrift of Utd.

Looking at Man City they only need to score 1.625 points a game for the rest of the season to get to 68 points (enough in 06/07 for fourth), form that would lead, if maintained throughout, to 61.75 points.

That's just one rival there is of course Liv, Eve, Portsmouth and a host of others.

Reality is we're out of it bar the final whistle, let's keep our fingers crossed for 8th or 9th, some good performances and clean sheets and if we want to dream then think on a Cup (or two, lol)
 

hybridsoldier

Well-Known Member
Aug 2, 2004
5,892
1,185
i must agree

we need a run of wins to catch the sides above, a draw will do the job but we really need to be winning games now
 

SpurSince57

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2006
45,213
8,229
If we do as well as we did in 2004-2005 after Jol took over I'll be happy enough. Another half-dozen points and I'll be positively delirious. And so should we all be.

And if we win tomorrow (and that's a big if) we'll be one point better off than we were after 14 games in 2004-2005, unless my sums are seriously wrong.
 

General Levy

Banned
Jun 7, 2007
4,295
9
11 points behind a very very good Blackburn team in 9th - who also have a game in hand on us. With us in Europe and with the possibility of extended cup runs, I honestly cannot see us getting into Europe via our league position.
 

MattyP

Advises to have a beer & sleep with prostitutes
May 14, 2007
14,041
2,980
that as may be but Pompey, Everton, Man City, Blackburn & Villa are all much better than they were last year, and we've gotten shitter.

Indeed they are, fancy including them in your sig camaj for perspective?

As for the question, well we must win every game, and win them with style.
 

MarkinJapan

New Member
Feb 4, 2005
369
0
If we win tomorrow we will move up to 12th place and remain 4 points behind newcastle and west ham. However if we lose we will remain 7 points adrift of that next cluster of teams that we need to be working into, nevermind still only 1 point above the dropzone (but we will ignore that). quote]

We'll be 10 adrift of West Ham (with Blacburn a further point ahead (at the present time), and 7 adrift of Newcastle (not exactly a cluster!). Big drop below the barcodes.
 

camaj

Posting too much
Aug 10, 2004
8,195
883
Bugger, someone's post just disappeared! I'll try and answer from memory

My post wasn't optimistic, I was just stating facts, I wasn't saying we'd do it or not. If we match our results from last season and get the 4 dropped points back and get an additional 6 or so then we have a chance at 4th. Of course if the 4th place team does much better than last year then we'd need more than 6 points.

At the end of the day if you get exactly the same results in two seasons you'll get exactly the same points. What we need to do (or any club) to get more points than the previous season is win the same number of games and but convert some of the draws into additional wins and convert some of the losses into draws. Naturally you drop points in specific fixtures but you pick them up in others.

Someone made a point that if you added up the avg points and multiplied that by 38 then you'd be matching the form of a 3rd place team. I imagine they were trying to say that it's almost impossible. This would be fair if it weren't for the fatal flaw which is the assumption that our next 25 games will be as hard as our first 13.

Averaging enough points over a season to get 3rd is hard but that's because you have to play everyone twice. As it stands we have an easier task because we've played a lot of our hard games already. The only games we can't expect to win from now are Arsenal (a), ManU (h), Chelsea (both), Liverpool (h) and we can draw some of those. We're certainly capable of winning every other game, we won't but there's no reason why we can't.

Someone else said something along the lines of "but aren't ManC, Blackburn, Villa and pompey better this year?" Well I don't know. They might be better now but what happens when ManC (for example) lose a few games, that's when a lot of seasons take a nose dive. Also they might be better but will they be good enough to push for 5th or even 4th?

The funny (and sad) thing is I predicted all this last season (see explanation in my sig). I knew that if the fixture computer spat out another tough start we'd be seeing a lot of negative comments and likewise we'd see a lot of OTT positive ones in the event of a favourable fixture list. It's hard to look at results dispassionately but that's why I've taken the trouble to point it out.

BTW, a little belief goes a long way COYS!!!! :beer:
 

BoringOldFan

It's better to burn out than to fade away...
Sep 20, 2005
9,955
2,498
I think we may have to ban "must win?" threads. Until further notice, all games fall into this category. To put it another way, wait until we can afford to lose/draw a game...
 

Class1987

Member
Sep 25, 2007
139
2
I love your optimism, but your living in cloud cuckoo land. Your hope is akin to being 3-0 down to Utd at O.T. at half time and believing we can still win it.

Here's a bit of simple maths, assuming 60 points would be enough for 5th (big assumption) we would need to score an average of 1.96 points a game between now and the end of the season. To put that in perspective, that sort of form for an entire season would accrue 74.48 points and would have secured third by a large margin last year.

If we think last years points tally of 68 by Arse and Liv is enough for fourth this year then we will need to average 2.28 points a game. Again repeated throughout the course of whole season that sort of return would see us reach 86.64 points, last year that would have put us above Chelsea in second and less than three adrift of Utd.

Looking at Man City they only need to score 1.625 points a game for the rest of the season to get to 68 points (enough in 06/07 for fourth), form that would lead, if maintained throughout, to 61.75 points.

That's just one rival there is of course Liv, Eve, Portsmouth and a host of others.

Reality is we're out of it bar the final whistle, let's keep our fingers crossed for 8th or 9th, some good performances and clean sheets and if we want to dream then think on a Cup (or two, lol)

Finally a sensible post!!! Now, look at the big gulf between the upper half and the lower half of the table, 60 points would be no means guarantee fifth or even sixth. Even if we score avg 2 points a game from now on, we would end up with only 61 which may or may not be good enough.

Damages have been overdone folks. Let's hope for a cup or two.
 

$herringham

Active Member
Aug 23, 2005
461
179
4th would require a lot of aggression and commitment from the entire team like some lower teams have showed, personally I think 4th is out of the question now (but that's just me). I know we have the quality, hopefully the tactics too, definitely class, just some damn luck we need, I think those superstitious members need to start wearing those lucky underwear mentioned last season

Oh and tomorrow, I say it is a must win to start on the right track after the internationals
 

tony0379

The bald midget has to go!
May 17, 2004
15,802
41,078
every game now is a cup final and i hope ramos has installed that mentallity into their thick skulls
 

sloth

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2005
9,018
6,900
The funny (and sad) thing is I predicted all this last season (see explanation in my sig). I knew that if the fixture computer spat out another tough start we'd be seeing a lot of negative comments and likewise we'd see a lot of OTT positive ones in the event of a favourable fixture list. It's hard to look at results dispassionately but that's why I've taken the trouble to point it out.

BTW, a little belief goes a long way COYS!!!! :beer:

I'm afraid your mistaking a reference point for a predictor.

Taking your golf analogy. It's as if you're comparing Monty's performance at the Open this year with his performance last year.

You're able to see how he's doing relative to his score the previous season, but unless you include everyone it tells you nothing about how the rest of the field are doing. Crucially it takes no account of the prevailing conditions. You are able to compare what has happened on a like for like basis but it facile to imagine that this in anyway indicates what will happen next.

Like I say I admire and respect your optimism and concede there's a slim chance of top six and a 100-1 shot at top four, but my advice is lower your expectations to what is tough but achievable and let that criteria be fluid.
 

claw_diddy

Est.1973
Aug 30, 2005
1,529
0
The way I see it rather than it be a must win game, its more like a mustn't lose. The teams above us are dropping points and the teams below us are gaining points. The table will even itself out over the next 2 months, we can't afford to go home tonight with the same points tally.
 

camaj

Posting too much
Aug 10, 2004
8,195
883
Like I say I admire and respect your optimism

Thanks but this is not optimism. That implies a prediction, which I haven't made. If certain conditions are met then we could get 4th but I'm not saying if we're able to meet those conditions.

Yes it doesn't take into account other teams but on the whole that's a red herring. We know the rough number of points required to get 4th. We know it's very unlikely to go above 80 and even mid-70's can be unusual

But the idea is not to predict our finishing position, I'm not claiming that's the point. The point is to indicate how well we're doing compared to the previous year. We could say that we have a good chance at equalling last seasons points total. If we get the same number of points we've got a good chance at 5th and if we get another 6-10 we've got a good chance at 4th. By "good chance" I mean it's unlikely the points requirement will be higher.
 

camaj

Posting too much
Aug 10, 2004
8,195
883
So, once again, we didn't win a "must win" game. We may as well give up then. :roll:

Well it makes our job a lot harder certainly! If we get two wins we can make up some points over the xmas period. We got 6 out of 18 points from the same teams last year, and I believe that 14 points is possible if the players are in good form
 

The Apprentice

Charles Big Potatoes
Mar 10, 2005
11,143
15,618
Don't really get the concept of "must win". Surely every game is a must win, unless it's a friendly. Even then, you should want to grind your opponent into the dirt and stamp on his face.

Must be my competitive side.
 
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