Premier League officially postponed until 17th of June

coys200 · Apr 17, 2020

King of Otters said:
The Times listed three possible scenarios today in the eventuality that the season is cancelled. Don’t know how much of this is pure guesswork, but none of them do us any favours.

How to work out table if season is not completed
Premier League clubs are pushing for the season to end on July 1 regardless of whether the remaining fixtures can be completed. Given that not all teams have played the same number of games, a formula will need to be devised to resolve key issues such as the Champions League places and relegation. With Manchester City banned from Europe next season, fifth place would ensure Champions League football. Bill Edgar outlines three ways the final table could be calculated.

Option one
Points per game
The most straightforward way to calculate the standings, with teams’ current points totals divided by their games played to give a points per game figure. The only change to the current table would be Sheffield United and Arsenal, who each have a game
in hand on most of their rivals, leapfrogging Wolves and Tottenham. Goal difference is used to separate any teams level on points per game, so Watford and West Ham would be saved, with Bournemouth going down.
Champions League places Liverpool, Leicester City, Chelsea, Man Utd
Europa League place Sheffield United
Relegated Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Norwich City

Option two
First meetings this season
Only matches from the first 19 rounds of fixtures are counted to avoid differences in opposition — for example some teams have played strong sides such as Liverpool and Manchester City twice, while others have only faced them once.
The problem with this method is that it does not account for current form, meaning that Watford would be relegated based on poor results before their upturn in fortunes after Nigel Pearson arrived
in December.
Champions League places Liverpool, Leicester, Chelsea, Man Utd
Europa League place Sheffield United
Relegated Aston Villa, Watford, Norwich City

Option three
Predict the remaining fixtures
Teams’ home and away form this season can be used to predict any unplayed game. For each fixture, the home team’s average points per home game is compared with the away team’s average points per away game, with extra weighting for the past five home and away matches respectively.
If one team’s figure is at least 0.2 greater than the other, they are winners. Otherwise, the match is drawn. Under this model Sheffield United versus Wolves, which was due to be played on Sunday, would go down as a home win — with United having an average home points score of 1.8 and Wolves an away score of 1.4.
Champions League places Liverpool, Leicester, Chelsea, Sheffield United
Europa League place Man Utd
Relegated Watford, Aston Villa, Norwich

Imo all of these have more legal challenges than a totally Void season, which could see the following:

liverpool- denied being champions, bar the prestige aslong as prize money is awarded on current standings financially they really don’t lose out and still get CL football. Any title awarded by a legal challenge would be massively hollow and given circumstances make them look really bad.

Leicester- probably biggest losers as no CL football, but given current form that wasn’t guaranteed any legal ch

Chelsea/United / sheff u etc - All ifs and buts none could really legally challenge with a firm case. Same with Leeds/WBA yes bad luck but they aren’t 20 pts clear

However all scenarios above could be massively challenged legally purely on fact you’ve just awarded prizes by changing the rules 3/4 through a season. It’s not like duckworth Lewis or 3/4 laps of a GP complete those rules are already in place.

Shadydan · Apr 17, 2020

coys200 said:
Imo all of these have more legal challenges than a totally Void season, which could see the following:

liverpool- denied being champions, bar the prestige aslong as prize money is awarded on current standings financially they really don’t lose out and still get CL football. Any title awarded by a legal challenge would be massively hollow and given circumstances make them look really bad.

Leicester- probably biggest losers as no CL football, but given current form that wasn’t guaranteed any legal ch

Chelsea/United / sheff u etc - All ifs and buts none could really legally challenge with a firm case. Same with Leeds/WBA yes bad luck but they aren’t 20 pts clear

However all scenarios above could be massively challenged legally purely on fact you’ve just awarded prizes by changing the rules 3/4 through a season. It’s not like duckworth Lewis or 3/4 laps of a GP complete those rules are already in place.

They haven't got a leg to stand on seeing as nothing has been decided yet, they can't prove if they would have won the league or qualify for the CL simply because nothing has been decided.

A legitimate legal challenge in another scenario for example would be relegating teams on the basis of not having enough points despite there being 9 matches to play in the league, that would be messy.

spursfan77 · Apr 17, 2020

I just read that the US tennis authorities have said they can’t see the US Open being played without fans because it’s against the spirit of the game. It’s 100% true.

They also said it’s not safe as putting the tournament on would still involves several thousand people. That’s one tournament with individual players or matches with only 4 people involved. Not 22 on the pitch and 14 in the stands! ?

Lifelong · Apr 17, 2020

I see the only option is to void the season and start again from scratch with 2018/19 places getting the cl spots apart from city if that sticks. As soon as you get into the realms of legal actions who knows how long that could take to sort out. And then what happens if one of the relegated teams wins their case and the season has already started? I can see it ending up in absolute chaos...

daryl hannah · Apr 17, 2020

Some really good discussion here. Thank you all.

It does seem like the only thing to do is to play out the rest of the games (BCD) in a couple of months' time. I don't see how you can void it because of Liverpool's lead & Leicester's claim to a CL spot, and the other options pose too many problems.

thebenjamin · Apr 17, 2020

Still reckon it's a straight choice between finishing this season and having next season, at all.

Even if BCD football starts again this year there will inevitably be another long lockdown over winter as the virus hits its real peak.

Fitting next season around that will be a challenge in itself, no chance there will be time for both.

Colonel Dax · Apr 17, 2020

daryl hannah said:
Some really good discussion here. Thank you all.

It does seem like the only thing to do is to play out the rest of the games (BCD) in a couple of months' time. I don't see how you can void it because of Liverpool's lead & Leicester's claim to a CL spot, and the other options pose too many problems.

But in a couple of months the virus won't have gone away. There will still be social distancing measures in place, possibly even a 2nd lockdown period. Playing football during this period and putting extra pressure on the emergency services would be irresponsible. In addition, what happens if someone within football contracts the virus (as happened to Arteta)? We're back to square one with entire squads in isolation and the whole thing breaks down.

JCRD · Apr 17, 2020

Shadydan said:
Some less dumb than others it seems...voiding the season altogether is the fairest option for everyone.

Not really for everyone though if you take the Championship into account. WBA wont be happy.

This is what I mean by no one will be happy.

dondo · Apr 17, 2020

If this epidemic continues for a long period of time ie things don’t get back to normal till September onwards I think the fairest option has to be to scrap next season and finish this season properly in the new year

Shadydan · Apr 17, 2020

JCRD said:
Not really for everyone though if you take the Championship into account. WBA wont be happy.

This is what I mean by no one will be happy.

Did WBA get mathematically promoted?

daryl hannah · Apr 17, 2020

Colonel Dax said:
But in a couple of months the virus won't have gone away. There will still be social distancing measures in place, possibly even a 2nd lockdown period. Playing football during this period and putting extra pressure on the emergency services would be irresponsible. In addition, what happens if someone within football contracts the virus (as happened to Arteta)? We're back to square one with entire squads in isolation and the whole thing breaks down.

I get that 100%. Just wonder if there was rigorous testing involved the whole thing *might* be feasible. I mean, the EPL are discussing it, aren't they?

There's too much money involved.

mark87 · Apr 17, 2020

JCRD said:
Not really for everyone though if you take the Championship into account. WBA wont be happy.

This is what I mean by no one will be happy.

Wba are only six points ahead of third with nine games left, they are by no means guaranteed a promotion spot, they are in a good position yes, but it's not done and dusted just yet.

JCRD · Apr 17, 2020

mark_2017 said:
Wba are only six points ahead of third with nine games left, they are by no means guaranteed a promotion spot, they are in a good position yes, but it's not done and dusted just yet.

If we were in WBAs position i bet we wouldnt be thinking that.

So i read today that the 'big six' want the season completed by hook or by crook - why would Levy want this if it would mean we go back into the CL? Im assuming lost revenue in the remaining PL games which would be far outweighed by the CL money

One thing is for sure - i dont think there will be any way that appeases everyone.

I was happy with it being null and voided for obvious reasons but if i were in the position of the other teams - i would hate that.

mpickard2087 · Apr 17, 2020

Lifelong said:
I see the only option is to void the season and start again from scratch with 2018/19 places getting the cl spots apart from city if that sticks. As soon as you get into the realms of legal actions who knows how long that could take to sort out. And then what happens if one of the relegated teams wins their case and the season has already started? I can see it ending up in absolute chaos...

Mightily convenient for Spurs that...…

European football is the last thing to solve, UEFA could pretty easily run a 500 odd team (based on coefficients etc.) super knockout competition to somewhat plug the gap for one year.

JCRD · Apr 17, 2020

Shadydan said:
Did WBA get mathematically promoted?

Its unknown. Listen, im happy for this season to be null and voided, im sure there will be a lot of teams being happy with that, conversely there will be a significant number of teams that wont be... im seeing it from a point of view of fairness.

Would we be saying null and void it if we were top of the league? I doubt it.

Colonel Dax · Apr 17, 2020

daryl hannah said:
I get that 100%. Just wonder if there was rigorous testing involved the whole thing *might* be feasible. I mean, the EPL are discussing it, aren't they?

There's too much money involved.

Agreed, they're discussing as they're desperate to find a solution. Who knows, it'll probably be feasible to have behind closed doors matches eventually. I just think currently it's premature to be talking about resuming matches as we don't know what will happen with the infection rate after lockdown measures are eased.

riggi · Apr 17, 2020

Hate this title.

Shadydan · Apr 17, 2020

JCRD said:
Its unknown. Listen, im happy for this season to be null and voided, im sure there will be a lot of teams being happy with that, conversely there will be a significant number of teams that wont be... im seeing it from a point of view of fairness.

Would we be saying null and void it if we were top of the league? I doubt it.

That's exactly the point, you can't reward teams on the basis of potential just like you can't punish teams on the basis of potential. You're never going to get a completely fair conclusion but the fairest outcomes is to void the season. It doesn't matter what we would be saying, we need to see it from a non bias point of view.

spursfan77 · Apr 17, 2020

dondo said:
If this epidemic continues for a long period of time ie things don’t get back to normal till September onwards I think the fairest option has to be to scrap next season and finish this season properly in the new year

But then the clubs lose 3 times as much as they've lost this season. They cant not play the next campaign, it will be worse for them.

Dov67 · Apr 17, 2020

From a purely THFC perspective - what do we want to happen?

If the season is voided, we will lose a tonne of money due to broadcasting rights, match day revenue, sponsorship income etc etc

On the other hand that gives us the possibility (rather than guarantee) that we could make next seasons' Champions League if they take the 2018/19 final positions, which would be worth £75 million (approx)

Given that we are guaranteed to lose money if the season is voided and that the CL football is far from guaranteed, it seems the club would prefer the season to be finished and take our chances on finishing 4th given Harry and Sonny will be back.

in my view, I can't even say whether the new season would start in August/September - in fact i don't think we will be out of this by then. I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable going to a game, unless I had had CV19 already and had some form of immunity

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