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2020 Cheltenham Tips, Betting & Chat.

midoshairband

Well-Known Member
Apr 25, 2006
6,947
13,636
Tell us something we dont know lads!

Only kidding, thanks for passing on.

Is there a horse any of you lot back every year at the festival, to your detriment?

The New One must have lost me a load of money in the Champion Hurdle.

about a month or so out from last years fez, a mate who asks me for fancies each festival asked me who i thought would win the gold cup. i told him al boum photo. the closer the race got, and the more i looked, i changed my mind so didn’t back it ?
 

dagraham

Well-Known Member
Sep 20, 2005
19,115
46,080
about a month or so out from last years fez, a mate who asks me for fancies each festival asked me who i thought would win the gold cup. i told him al boum photo. the closer the race got, and the more i looked, i changed my mind so didn’t back it ?

So who did you fancy for this years GC about a month ago? ;) :D
 

tototoner

Staying Alert
Mar 21, 2004
29,389
34,060
Handicap Hurdle trends and stats

At the last six Cheltenham Festivals there have been 24 Non-Novice Handicap Hurdles and 586 runners...


24/24 (winners) ran in a Hurdle race LTO (Those that didn’t run in a Hurdle race LTO are 0/63, 11p)

Those that ran in a race worth 75k+ to the winner LTO are 0/51, 7p

Those that ran in a race worth LESS than 8k to the winner are 0/78, 8p

(so ideally you want something that ran in a Hurdle race worth more than 8k but less than 75k LTO)

23/24 had 5 or less Handicap Hurdle starts (Those with 6 or more Handicap Hurdle starts are 1/179, 16p)

23/24 had 0-1 previous Handicap Hurdle wins (Those with 2+ Handicap Hurdle wins are 1/168, 21p || 3+ Handicap Hurdle wins are 0/79, 8p)

23/24 were 2lbs+ higher than their last winning mark (those that were not are 1/57 | 1.75% S/R)

23/24 ran at C3 level+ LTO (Those that ran a C4 level or below LTO are 1/54, 8p)

23/24 had 18 or less career starts (Those with 19+ career starts are 1/158 | 0.5% S/R)

22/24 had 9 or less Hurdle starts (Those with 10+ Hurdle starts are 2/222, 17p)

22/24 recorded a placed effort on one of their last three starts (those that hadn't are 2/89 | 2% S/R)

21/22 were ridden by a jockey WITHOUT a claim (Claiming jockeys are 3/125 | 2.5% S/R)

Claimers with a claim of 5lbs+ are 1/73 | 1% S/R – 6 places

Only 3/24 started as an outright FAVOURITE last time out (only 4/24 started as fav or joint/co fav)
 

Davo99

Well-Known Member
Dec 2, 2006
4,063
5,827
Handicap Hurdle trends and stats

At the last six Cheltenham Festivals there have been 24 Non-Novice Handicap Hurdles and 586 runners...


24/24 (winners) ran in a Hurdle race LTO (Those that didn’t run in a Hurdle race LTO are 0/63, 11p)

Those that ran in a race worth 75k+ to the winner LTO are 0/51, 7p

Those that ran in a race worth LESS than 8k to the winner are 0/78, 8p

(so ideally you want something that ran in a Hurdle race worth more than 8k but less than 75k LTO)

23/24 had 5 or less Handicap Hurdle starts (Those with 6 or more Handicap Hurdle starts are 1/179, 16p)

23/24 had 0-1 previous Handicap Hurdle wins (Those with 2+ Handicap Hurdle wins are 1/168, 21p || 3+ Handicap Hurdle wins are 0/79, 8p)

23/24 were 2lbs+ higher than their last winning mark (those that were not are 1/57 | 1.75% S/R)

23/24 ran at C3 level+ LTO (Those that ran a C4 level or below LTO are 1/54, 8p)

23/24 had 18 or less career starts (Those with 19+ career starts are 1/158 | 0.5% S/R)

22/24 had 9 or less Hurdle starts (Those with 10+ Hurdle starts are 2/222, 17p)

22/24 recorded a placed effort on one of their last three starts (those that hadn't are 2/89 | 2% S/R)

21/22 were ridden by a jockey WITHOUT a claim (Claiming jockeys are 3/125 | 2.5% S/R)

Claimers with a claim of 5lbs+ are 1/73 | 1% S/R – 6 places

Only 3/24 started as an outright FAVOURITE last time out (only 4/24 started as fav or joint/co fav)
I’ll have to have a look through and see who best matches the criteria Jason, thanks for sharing. Have you singled anything out yet?
 

tototoner

Staying Alert
Mar 21, 2004
29,389
34,060
I’ll have to have a look through and see who best matches the criteria Jason, thanks for sharing. Have you singled anything out yet?

I did like these even before the weights came out, and these are the prices I got, did 10ew on them

Relegate - Pertemps 25/1
Sempo - Coral Cup 25/1
Tronador - Boodlies 16/1
Ravenhill - Kim Muir 20/1

They are now 7/1, 12/1, 9/1 and 7/1 for those races.

Kim Muir is a chase and Boodles is a novice HCP Hurdle not relevant for those specific stats.

Sempo doesn't fit as it only won a Maiden Hurdle LTO and may even go for the Albert Bartlett, but Relegate ticks all those boxes

Was planning to have a more detailed look at the 48 hour decs stage when we know the jockeys and going
 

tototoner

Staying Alert
Mar 21, 2004
29,389
34,060
Just heard Gordon Elliott say Ravenhill going to the last race on day 1 now and not the Kim Muir and Jamie Codd will be on it.

Thankfully had NRNB
 

midoshairband

Well-Known Member
Apr 25, 2006
6,947
13,636
Just heard Gordon Elliott say Ravenhill going to the last race on day 1 now and not the Kim Muir and Jamie Codd will be on it.

Thankfully had NRNB

always pot luck with Elliott and Mullins horses. they really keep you guessing. but its worth a bit of a risk to try and get big prices, especially with NRNB.

i’m currently sweating on Envoi Allen - got him at 10/1 for the Ballymore. squeaky bum time.
 

Sandro30

Well-Known Member
Jul 7, 2011
2,855
12,322
Altior declared fit for the QMCC but happy to back Defi on this one.
Not quite true, said that Altior isn’t out the woods yet but is declared. Being open about it, I thought Defi would be favourite at the off for a while now, especially with the ground. I’m very sweet on him.
 

Houdini

No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
Jul 10, 2006
56,726
78,459
WillHill paying out on first 7 in the Sky bet supreme novices!
 

dagraham

Well-Known Member
Sep 20, 2005
19,115
46,080
WillHill paying out on first 7 in the Sky bet supreme novices!

Yeah I wish I’d held out a bit now before making my bets, but I was suckered in by Skybet’s free swing and PP’s offer of a free bet if the horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th. What could possibly go wrong? :D .
 

tototoner

Staying Alert
Mar 21, 2004
29,389
34,060
just got this from Narrowing the Field on the Boodles

I'm sharing the last bit of free analysis with you guys, in the form of some trends digging for my nemesis that is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle! (formerly Fred Winter).

The final decs for the race are through and the max field of 22 will go to post, so to cut that down to a manageable shortlist I used the following trends...


1 15/15 yet to run at track (0/67 those that had run at track)
2 15/15 didn't run in a maiden race LTO
3 14/15 DSLR 53 or less
4 14/15 top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts
5 14/15 ran in a Non-Handicap Hurdle LTO
6 14/15 were rated OR 134 or less (1/66 rated OR 135+)
7 14/15 didn't wear a Tongue-Tie
8 13/15 no more than 3 hurdle starts



That cuts the field down to THREE...


FRASER ISLAND (N HENDERSON ) 16/1

TRONADOR (G ELLIOTT) 9/1

THYME WHITE (P NICHOLLS) 9/1


...
 

Houdini

No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
Jul 10, 2006
56,726
78,459
Also at WillHill....

The 2:50 pays out on first 5.
The 3:30 pays out on first 4.
The 4:50 pays out on first 5.
 
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