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Shots conceded

spids

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2015
6,647
27,841
Our expected goals against, the purple line below, suggests that we're either facing a lot more shots or a higher quality chances over the last two seasons than we have in the previous season, and it's trending in the wrong direction.

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I really love this type of analysis. For me it shows that we never replaced a fit Wanyama or Dembele at the base of our midfield. We used to have so much control of the ball. We used to concede the odd good chance but never let teams like Palace get 8 shots on target at our own ground! It was funny watching Benteke shooting tamely at the end on Saturday, but we gave him two decent shooting opportunities from the edge of the box that better players could have scored from.
 

spids

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2015
6,647
27,841
The three teams with lowest xG score are Newcastle, Aston villa and Crystal palace... :LOL:

Analysis shows that Everton, Brighton, Watford are all underperforming due to other teams being clinical, and them being wasteful. They're the teams to include in a nice little Trixie bet next few weekends!
 

Hakkz

Svensk hetsporre
Jul 6, 2012
8,196
17,270
Analysis shows that Everton, Brighton, Watford are all underperforming due to other teams being clinical, and them being wasteful. They're the teams to include in a nice little Trixie bet next few weekends!

After the game yesterday you could clearly see Watford have more goals in them than the table would suggest.
 

Nerine

Juicy corned beef
Jan 27, 2011
4,756
17,217
Is this just shots or shots on target indicating a more clear cut chance?

You could argue that the fact people are taking more speculative efforts because our defence is difficult to play through? ??‍♂️
 

coys200

Well-Known Member
May 22, 2017
8,436
17,403
Yes Palace shots were mostly awful but the point is they got into decent positions to get shots off.
 

SpursSince1980

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2011
4,732
14,439
Yes Palace shots were mostly awful but the point is they got into decent positions to get shots off.
Hard to disagree with this. I counted at least three occasions that Zaha was able to get at or around the 18 yard box, and take a shot. Likewise, Benteke had a pretty good opportunity in the 2nd half that he tapped harmlessly at the goalkeeper.

In part this is due to the way we play. High-pressing can leave gaps in midfield for player to run into, unabated. This in turn, gives them more opportunity to get off a shot. I guess it ultimately comes down to the overall threat of the position they shoot from. With a good goalie, you expect to make a few of those saves. But then again, a player with a better, more accurate shot, probably would have buried at least one of those Palace efforts.

Conversely, you could argue that the team had gone down a couple of gears in the second half, so it was inevitable that Palace would have a few more chances.

Back in the season we had Wanyama and Dembele at full fitness bossing our midfield, plus we had Toby going strong, Walker, Rose, et al... we seemed a lot more obdurate. But then again, could just be my imagination.
 

spids

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2015
6,647
27,841
Hard to disagree with this. I counted at least three occasions that Zaha was able to get at or around the 18 yard box, and take a shot. Likewise, Benteke had a pretty good opportunity in the 2nd half that he tapped harmlessly at the goalkeeper.

In part this is due to the way we play. High-pressing can leave gaps in midfield for player to run into, unabated. This in turn, gives them more opportunity to get off a shot. I guess it ultimately comes down to the overall threat of the position they shoot from. With a good goalie, you expect to make a few of those saves. But then again, a player with a better, more accurate shot, probably would have buried at least one of those Palace efforts.

Conversely, you could argue that the team had gone down a couple of gears in the second half, so it was inevitable that Palace would have a few more chances.

Back in the season we had Wanyama and Dembele at full fitness bossing our midfield, plus we had Toby going strong, Walker, Rose, et al... we seemed a lot more obdurate. But then again, could just be my imagination.

Your high press hypothesis is inaccurate IMO. 2 years ago we pressed more than we did last season and conceded a lot less chances. The problem is that we have not really played a proper, disciplined DCM for a long time. Wanyama and Dembele gave us a really good shield in that 10msq ‘box’ in front of the CBs. Plus they kept the ball so much better (Dembele). Winks is a really good CM but he is not a DCM and his positioning defensively is really quite poor. Watch highlights from any of our games this season and, when teams create a chance against us, look at that imaginary box space in front of the CBs ...no CMs anywhere to be seen.
 

guiltyparty

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2005
9,023
13,524
Look at xG stat (expected goals).

The BBC have quite a good write up on how it works here (couple of years old but shows how awesome Kane was back then):


You can find a league table with xGf xGa columns here:


Liverpool and us have been the most clinical - i.e. we have scored more than the xG stats say we should have based on the quality of the chances (both +4).

Interesting Llorente in the top 5 before we signed him next to Kane and Son too...

A1439773-3458-4C3A-A998-DBF6453C0561.jpeg
 

spids

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2015
6,647
27,841
I think Llorente had a real purple patch that season plus he scored a lot of close range headers where xG rates them as difficult chances based on an overall poor conversion rate (i.e. specialist headers often miss them in a congested area under pressure from the keeper).
 

Hakkz

Svensk hetsporre
Jul 6, 2012
8,196
17,270
Is this just shots or shots on target indicating a more clear cut chance?

You could argue that the fact people are taking more speculative efforts because our defence is difficult to play through? ??‍♂️

:LOL: :LOL:
 

degoose

Well-Known Member
Jul 3, 2004
2,832
3,012
do these shots conceded include when Townsend does his best Robben impression and hoofs it over the bar because that will count towards a lot.
 

Shadydan

Well-Known Member
Jul 7, 2012
38,247
104,143
Exactly the same again. Just so easy to get at.

11 shots on our goal in 45 mins is pathetic

We're not pressing as high as normal and not taking risks trying to get the ball back, just standing off players and letting them play.
 

TTID2002

Well-Known Member
Aug 20, 2013
315
752
In the better years of Poch's tenure, our defense was rock solid. We had a foundation upon which we recycle possession and hit quickly on the counter. Danny Rose isn't as good as he was then, we don't have a solid right back and the CBs are showing some signs of aging / instability. Add a lack of a proper DM and we just don't have that core any more. I used to go into games certain we'd keep a clean sheet, now I'm not surprised when teams like Newcastle score first.
 

shelfboy68

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2008
14,566
19,651
Is this just shots or shots on target indicating a more clear cut chance?

You could argue that the fact people are taking more speculative efforts because our defence is difficult to play through? ??‍♂️
No we are far easier to get through whether that be down the sides or through the middle.
 

spurs mental

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2007
25,075
49,234
A fully fit Dier or Wanyama will sort all this out. Such a shame that neither of them seem capable of being just that right now.
 

shelfboy68

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2008
14,566
19,651
In the better years of Poch's tenure, our defense was rock solid. We had a foundation upon which we recycle possession and hit quickly on the counter. Danny Rose isn't as good as he was then, we don't have a solid right back and the CBs are showing some signs of aging / instability. Add a lack of a proper DM and we just don't have that core any more. I used to go into games certain we'd keep a clean sheet, now I'm not surprised when teams like Newcastle score first.
The decision not to upgrade the squad over two windows was a brave but stupid gamble which is probably going to set the club back a couple of seasons.
We had some momentum back then but now all I see are disjointed poor performances on an all too regular basis, poch looks lost and seemingly unable to get player's to perform the basics.
The team let's in far to many goals with defending appearing to be a forgotten art, along with a midfield that offers little or no protection poor decision making has increased like penalty we gave away last night that was diabolical from all concerned to have got into that position.
Yet another two nil lead thrown away in short succession is inexcusable the player's are clearly not at the races, and unless we improve which I can't see at the moment the club faces a real prospect of not only missing out on top four but also top six.
Those chasing clubs such as Leicester, west ham look in better shape than the ramble going on at our club I'm sure Leicester will fancy their chances on Saturday I fear we could concede another couple of goals at least.
 

spurs mental

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2007
25,075
49,234
The decision not to upgrade the squad over two windows was a brave but stupid gamble which is probably going to set the club back a couple of seasons.
We had some momentum back then but now all I see are disjointed poor performances on an all too regular basis, poch looks lost and seemingly unable to get player's to perform the basics.
The team let's in far to many goals with defending appearing to be a forgotten art, along with a midfield that offers little or no protection poor decision making has increased like penalty we gave away last night that was diabolical from all concerned to have got into that position.
Yet another two nil lead thrown away in short succession is inexcusable the player's are clearly not at the races, and unless we improve which I can't see at the moment the club faces a real prospect of not only missing out on top four but also top six.
Those chasing clubs such as Leicester, west ham look in better shape than the ramble going on at our club I'm sure Leicester will fancy their chances on Saturday I fear we could concede another couple of goals at least.

Decent post but then you mention that West Ham look in better shape than us and lose all credibility.
 
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