The last 38 Games thread...

[sloth]

I thought a nice, alternative way of looking at the team and it's quality would be too simply take the last 38 games. This way we're not taking a snap-shot of this season or last, but a full season as if it begun 38 Games ago. Each Game week I shall update this and we can see how we progress (or otherwise), and how many times in the course of a season our 38 match form would see us in the top four. Then at the end of the season we'll be able to draw conclusions about the amount of skill or luck in our eventual finishing place and maybe other stuff like how we should target a season as a whole.

Anyway, here's the first table:

Game-week 5

 

[ShelfSide18]

Like this idea a lot.

 

[sloth]

First thing to note, I'd suggest, is the ridiculously high threshold for top four, with Chelsea missing out by a full four points despite being on 72.

 

[Spurs 1961]

Useful thread Sloth. I think this gives a really accurate picture of he long term form of teams. Thanks

 

[Lo Amo Speroni]

Sloth, this is genius. Thanks mate.

 

[Danny1]

Great thread! I think our GD needs to improve this season for us to be right up there!

 

[Gassin's finest]

Great thread! I think our GD needs to improve this season for us to be right up there!

This

 

[TottenhamMattSpur]

Clever idea. How are you able to determine everyones points? Is it a laborious task or do you have a funky spreadsheet?

 

[thinktank]

Not getting your explanation of this sloth, can you clarify the above please. Ta.

Having a blonde morning.

 

[vegassd]

Sloth, I think you're great, but this is a bit pointless isn't it?

Players have changed, managers have changed, opponents have changed. It's very nice to see us in the top 4 and everything, but that's including games with Bale, games managed by Ferguson, Mancini and Benitez, a full Suarez ban and relegation scraps.

Man U will have faced City, Chelsea and Liverpool 3 times? Will we have faced promoted teams 7 times but Arsenal away twice? Seems a bit skewed to me.

 

[sloth]

Clever idea. How are you able to determine everyones points? Is it a laborious task or do you have a funky spreadsheet?

There's this site: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2012-2013/table/2012-09-23 which lets you view the league table from any game-week in the last 50 years or so. So then it's simple a question of pasting last year's finishing table, this year's current table and last year's table after five matches and then from the end of last year table subtracting all the figures from last year's five match table and adding in instead the first five matches from this year. Took about ten minutes to set-up and will take a couple of minutes to update each week. Simple!

 

[OmarsComing]

I thought a nice, alternative way of looking at the team and it's quality would be too simply take the last 38 games. This way we're not taking a snap-shot of this season or last, but a full season as if it begun 38 Games ago. Each Game week I shall update this and we can see how we progress (or otherwise), and how many times in the course of a season our 38 match form would see us in the top four. Then at the end of the season we'll be able to draw conclusions about the amount of skill or luck in our eventual finishing place and maybe other stuff like how we should target a season as a whole.

Anyway, here's the first table:

Game-week 5

image isnt loading. Please use imgur.com

 

[Flashspur]

i think the last 8 games gives you a better idea of form but I still like the OP

 

[sloth]

Not getting your explanation of this sloth, can you clarify the above please. Ta.

Having a blonde morning.

It's a rolling 38 match snapshot, so from any game week you have the league table for the last 38 games (a full-league season in other words.).

Sloth, I think you're great, but this is a bit pointless isn't it?

Players have changed, managers have changed, opponents have changed. It's very nice to see us in the top 4 and everything, but that's including games with Bale, games managed by Ferguson, Mancini and Benitez, a full Suarez ban and relegation scraps.

Man U will have faced City, Chelsea and Liverpool 3 times? Will we have faced promoted teams 7 times but Arsenal away twice? Seems a bit skewed to me.

That's a valid point, but one thing it may slowly reveal is the difference in quality between this year and last, we may also see things like teams which drop-off or push on after January, perhaps due to activity or lack thereof in that window. We might see that for some reason Spurs tend to be in the top four in a season which goes 38 games to the autumn and winter but rarely the one to late spring, is this random - your point about quality of teams faced is a good one, and should be taken into account, but is the same - and more so - when looking at any current league table too! - or is there some focus other teams are putting on that period which we don't? What should we take from a case where for two thirds of the game-weeks we're top four, but the last few we're not? Does that mean essentially our quality is top four and we're just unlucky? Or something else? How will what we see here make everyone more realistic about our level? Will people be committing hari-Kari if we fall short on the final week having been there all year? Will people get carried away with our ability if we scrape 2nd at the end, but that's the only time we were 2nd?

In addition we can already see that there's a ridiculously high threshold for top four atm, does that mean we should all be thinking as only above 72 points being good enough. Plus there's a compressing at the top as Utd fall-back into the pack, with no run-away winners.

In short, there's a hundred and one things we might think about from this, not sure all will be interesting or valid, but there's plenty to debate imo.

 

[sloth]

image isnt loading. Please use imgur.com

Done.

 

[thinktank]

It's a rolling 38 match snapshot, so from any game week you have the league table for the last 38 games (a full-league season in other words.).

That's what I thought. Finding it hard to grasp the value of it though. Odd concept.

I need a coffee and a shower. Then will think about it again

 

[TottenhamMattSpur]

Sloth, I think you're great, but this is a bit pointless isn't it?

Players have changed, managers have changed, opponents have changed. It's very nice to see us in the top 4 and everything, but that's including games with Bale, games managed by Ferguson, Mancini and Benitez, a full Suarez ban and relegation scraps.

Man U will have faced City, Chelsea and Liverpool 3 times? Will we have faced promoted teams 7 times but Arsenal away twice? Seems a bit skewed to me.

The longer it goes the more accurate it becomes.
Bit like resetting your average mpg while doing 60mph on the motorway. It'll look brilliant until you pull off onto side roads then it evens out.

 

[thinktank]

Brainwave: the problem is the variables.

Way way way too many (as vegas has alluded to).

Interesting experiment though. Sure we can find some useful things from it.

*phew...blonde doesn't suit me at all.

 

[sloth]

Brainwave: the problem is the variables.

Way way way too many (as vegas has alluded to).

Interesting experiment though. Sure we can find some useful things from it.

*phew...blonde doesn't suit me at all.

Yes, I wouldn't suggest taking anything categoric from this, because, for example, Man Utd have clearly played two more of the top teams in that table, and we have played one more of the lesser teams, but I hope it will generate interesting thoughts, and it will certainly be interesting if by the end of the season we see a similar top four threshold!

(To that end actually, it might be interesting to see an equivalent 2011 - 2012 comparison!)

 

[Francis Gibbs]

Great thread! I think our GD needs to improve this season for us to be right up there!

its our goals scored that needs improving