the UFC thread

[EJWTartanSpur]

Benavidez got smashed. Greta performance by figuerido.

Gastelum needs to make a decision about his weight as the 185ers are to big for him.

Yep, he was never even really top 5 at MW, worked his way to the title without beating any of them. He’s only really there because he wasn’t willing to put in the necessary round the clock work to make WW. He’d be an absolute beast there with his wrestle boxing and size

 

[fatpiranha]

UFC Fight Island 3 - I don't like this card either from a betting or fan's perspective . There are a lot of shot fighters squeezing out one last pay day and a couple of horrible mismatches too . Feeding Skeletor to Chimaev is like giving a mouse to an anaconda, and who wants to watch Shogun vs Little Nog for the 3rd time?

Till's been given the only fighter among the Top 7 middleweights he's got a chance of beating because the UFC are desperate to get him to a title fight. Gus vs Werdum will be like watching two tramps fight to the death over half a can of Diamond White.

Half the fighters on this card should either have already been cut from the UFC or aren't good enough to be there in the first place.

 

[fatpiranha]

I normally do spread betting but I've had a parlay bet on the odds as even if I'm wrong it will save me some money . I've gone for a £100 4-fold on Wood/ Chimaev/ Emeev/ Aspinall at just under 6/4. It would be a major shock if any of those lose but there are plenty of major shocks in MMA . If one shock happens then it works out about the same but if two or more go down it makes no difference to the parlay but is a disaster on the spreads . Obviously I wouldn't bet it at all if I didn't think 6/4 was a decent price.

I've also bet on Grundy to beat Evloev. I think it's a coin toss but Grundy is about a 2/1 underdog so it's purely a value bet.

All my other wagers will be prop bets. So far I've gone for Whittaker by KO; Little Nog by Rnd 1 stoppage; and have taken both sides in Gus vs Werdum - Gus by decision and Werdum by sub.

I don't trust Till's chin and while the fight could play out in many ways I think Bobby Knuckles is a class above the Gorilla. While Whittaker has never beaten an elite technical striker I don't think Till is elite. He hasn't knocked out anybody who is actually any good and he won't have his usual size advantage going for him here.

Little Nog is 44 and this is his retirement fight. Not before time either. The last thing to go in an old fighter is his punch and Little Nog is probably only dangerous in the 1st round. Luckily he's facing Shogun who was nearly starched in the 1st round by Paul Craig last time out. Now "Bearjew" has only ever won once by TKO, and that was against an absolute bum, so I figure Shogun's chin is shot. I'll take 7/1 that Little Nog can put Shogun to sleep in Rnd 1 when I can't see any other way he wins and he's only a 6/4 underdog with the bookies.

If Antony Smith can submit "The Mauler" (which is what happened in Gustafsson's last fight) then one of the greatest BJJ players in heavyweight history should be able to. If this goes to the ground I don't see Gus lasting too long. That's a big "if" though. Gus has an 85% takedown defence and a good initial scramble.

Werdum was an absolute disgrace in his last fight. He turned up hideously out of shape and took an absolute beating from Alexey Oleinik (which didn't stop one of the judges scoring the fight to Werdum ) but he somehow made it to the final bell. Rumour has it he didn't do any training at all for that fight and just crawled off the couch and onto the plane to Fight Island. All Gus really has to do to win is jab Werdum's face off for 3 rounds and the fight is his. The money is on Gus to win by stoppage but Gus isn't a one punch KO artist and he simply doesn't need to risk it so I don't see Werdum getting finished unless it's by Type 2 diabetes .

 

[fatpiranha]

A couple more bets:

Chimaev to win by KO - Chimaev is a ridiculously short price following his mauling of John Phillips on his UFC debut. Here he is attempting to smash the record for the fastest back-to-back wins in UFC history. He's basically shed some weight and is now fighting in his natural weight class. I'm slightly annoyed that I put him in my acca as he's no value at all. Mckee isn't that bad a fighter and while Chimaev should beat him fairly easily he's not a 1/12 shot which is where the odds currently are .

What does seem value is Chimaev to win by KO/TKO for several reasons. Firstly despite subbing John Phillips he put a fearful beatdown on him before Phillips was subbed and he tried and failed with several submissions before he sank one in. Now Phillips is incredibly tough and has never been stopped by TKO. I honestly don't think there is another fighter in the division who could have taken that kind of punishment. The referee should really hae stopped the fight on several occasions to save him from his own bravery. Mckee isn't going to take that kind of beating and remain conscious.

Another reason is that Phillips has zero takedown defence. Chimaev put him on the ground at the first attempt in both rounds. Mckee will be slightly more difficult to take down and that means more chance of him getting KO'd on the feet. Chimaev actually has more KO's than subs in his career so it's a little surprising that he is favourite to win by sub.

The final reason is I think Chimaev would rather have a win by sub and KO on his UFC record than two wins by sub. This normally shouldn't make much difference but a 1/12 odds fighter should be able to choose how he wants to win.

Rodriguez to win by KO - Marina is the favourite to beat Esparza but all the money is on her to do it on points. Initially I thought there might be value on backing "Cookie Monster" as Rodriguez has struggled against wrestlers in the past. The only blotches on her record were against similar fighters to Esparza who took Marina down and gave her a 10-8 beating in that round while Marina won both the other rounds.

I just think that Carla has fallen in love with her hands lately and if she tries to have a striking match against Rodriguez she is going to get lit up. Marina is nasty on the feet and Carla shoots her takedowns from far too far out. I can see her trying that against Marina and getting a knee in the mouth. It's a longshot but the odds are very tempting.

 

[fatpiranha]

Final bets ...

Craig vs Antigulov - I've had 2 bets on this fight and I totally expect to lose both of them . Antigulov is a very unique fighter; he is incredibly dangerous for about two and a half minutes of the first round after which his gas tank is empty and he gets finished. In fact in 25 fights Antigulov has never made it into the 3rd round. He also has a glass jaw .

Craig on the other hand never gasses and is dangerous right up to the last second of the fight. In fact he beat a very good fighter called Magomed Ankalaev with 1 second of the fight to go after being beaten up for 3 rounds (the latest win in UFC history). "Bearjew" has only ever won a fight by KO and he's only been submitted once. He also has a glass jaw .

Everyone expects this fight to be over very quickly one way or another, and that is probably what will happen, but betting it is just a way to win small or lose big. But if Craig can't punch and can't be submitted that removes 2 of the 4 ways this fight can end. What's more Craig wins all his fights off his back so there is no reason for him to defend the take down. So if Ankalaev wants to take him down and Craig wants to be taken down there might not be a lot of time spent on the feet. If Ankalaev is just lying on top of Craig defending submission attempts then he might not gas out for a couple of rounds. I'm far from confident but I've bet on Antigulov to win on points & Craig to win in Rnd 3 both at very attractive odds .

Sobotta by sub - Another underdog prop bet. Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira us a wild man who never has a boring fight. He's beaten some good guys but he has a low fight IQ and too often finds a way to lose. One of the things he loves to do is mix in take downs with his striking especially if he begins to tire. That would be really dumb against a dangerous, and durable, submission specialist like Sobotta. I just have a feeling Cowboy will do it anyway.

Kianzad by decision - "Pitbull" is old, slow, and as tough as a $2 steak. Kianzad isn't very good either, but she will land more volume than Bethe, which the judges on Fight Island seem to favour. It should be a really boring fight but I'm getting odds against on what should be an odds on outcome .

Jai Herbert by decision - The "Black Country Banger" faces grizzled veteran Francisco Trinaldo in his UFC debut. Jai hits really hard, but hitting Trinaldo is like punching a brazil nut. He's never been KO'd in his entire career, and while at nearly 42 there's always the possibility that his chin will go suddenly, I'm not betting it until I see it happen. Trinaldo is the favourite but he hardly ever goes for takedowns these days and while he hits hard he has a hard time landing more than a single shot at a time. If Jai is sensible he should just stay out of trouble and coast to a boring points win. If he tries to make a name for himself then things could go badly for him.

Boser by KO - Boser is a favourite of mine. He's a relatively small heavyweight with great lower leg kicks, an iron chin, and a missing front tooth. From watching interviews with him he also seems to be a really decent guy. He shocked everyone 10 days ago when he turned up at Fight Island in shape for the first time ever and duly KO'd fat Phillip Lins. He's just flown back to Abu Dhabi for a second fight in a fortnight having spent a week in quarantine and having only had 3 days training for this fight.

Raphael Pessoa is a big heavyweight who hits hard and has never been KO'd. He's a sizeable underdog in this fight but that is probably due to recency bias after Boser looked so good last time out. I'm not sure if the newly muscled Boser could even KO him with a punch to the jaw but I guess there's always a chance. Even Boser says he expects to win a decision but then he is a very modest chap.

I don't like the outright odds for Boser to win and I don't expect him to KO Pessoa. What I expect is that Boser will kick Pessoa's calf until he can't stand up and win by TKO. I've noticed that Pessoa stands very heavy on his lead leg and doesn't check leg kicks. Boser has stopped 2 opponents with leg kicks earlier in his career.

 

[fatpiranha]

Forgot Aspinall to win Rnd 2.

Anybody else got any bets on?

 

[fatpiranha]

Just checked my bets. There's 15 in all which is a lot considering I wasn't keen on this card . The betting line has moved in my favour in 11 of them (although none enough to cover the spreads which are really quite large in MMA), 4 are the same, and none have moved against me. Doesn't mean they are going to win of course but at least I've got better odds than I would have done if I'd waited.

A lot of pro-bettors like to wait for the weigh-ins before committing to their bets. I prefer to get in early and try to snatch the best price. If someone turns up horribly out of shape I'll either cash the bet in and swallow the loss of the spread or grin and bear it if the spread is too wide. These are professional athletes and it's relatively rare that they don't prepare properly for a fight knowing that they have to get in a cage with someone who intends to beat the crap out of them.

Anyone who tells you that they can pick the winner of a fight based on a fighter's body language at the weigh-ins is talking complete bollocks.

 

[fatpiranha]

Had an insurance bet on Collier by sub just in case .

 

[fatpiranha]

News from the weigh-ins ...

Trinaldo missed weight by 4lbs and is looking old. I'm a little worried that Herbert might stop him but I'm not making a further bet.

Aspinall looked great but Collier came in at 265lbs . This for a man who is moving up two weight classes and now he only just makes the heavyweight limit! It wasn't muscle either. Collier must have spent the 3 years since he last fought sitting on the couch eating Doritos and just rolled off it to fight in the UFC . I'd already backed Aspinall to KO him in Rnd 2 but in this condition he may not last that long so I've had a saver on Aspinall to win in Rnd 1.

Lastly Werdum is in great shape while Gus is looking a bit flabby. I've had a small top up bet on Werdum to win.

Everybody else looks good to go .

 

[fatpiranha]

That's my 4-fold parlay in the bank .

 

[fatpiranha]

Wood/ Chimaev/ Emeev/ Aspinall 4-fold accumulator - Won £144.59
Won £104 on Kianzad
Won £213 on Boser
Lost £92.50 on Grundy
Won £24 on Aspinall
Lost £84 on Herbert
Won £120 on Chimaev
Lost £37.50 on Sobotta
Lost £49.50 on Craig vs Antigulov
Lost £72.50 on Rodriguez
Won £229.50 on Werdum
Lost £46.50 on Nogueira
Lost £87 on Whittaker

Total = +£365.59

Not bad. Could have been a lot better. Only the Sobotta and Craig vs Antigulov bets came nowhere near cashing. Grundy locked up his favourite Darce choke in Rnd 1 but Evloev is incredibly tough. Both those guys look real talents.

Herbert just needed to stay out of danger in Rnd 3 but showed his inexperience and got starched. I predicted that would happen if he tried to mix it with Trinaldo .

Little Nog did hurt Shogun in Rnd 1 but then got taken down and Shogun recovered. Worth a shot at the odds.

Whittaker beat Till and had him badly hurt in Rnd 2 but Till survived. I'd make the same bet if they fought again.

The biggest disappointment was Rodriguez who despite spending the majority of the fight underneath Esparza still messed her up horribly with elbows from bottom position. At the end of Rnd 1 I thought the doctor might stop the fight but this is MMA not boxing. Rodriguez's take down defence is really dreadful and Esparza only had one path to victory. I thought Marina would throw one of her nasty knees and catch her coming in, instead of continually trying to defend take downs she couldn't stop anyway, but it never happened . Even the commentators were asking why she wasn't using her knees. Terrible fight IQ by Rodriguez and her corner. I stood to win more on that fight than any of the others, so it pissed me off to see a fighter with all the tools at her disposal fail to use them because of a bad game plan.

 

[fatpiranha]

The judging in Abu Dhabi was relatively consistent and there were no obvious robberies but the refereeing has been dreadful. I hate seeing fights stopped too early but there were several cases when a fighter was either unconscious or just turtled up waiting for the ref to call it off when they let a clearly beaten fighter take unnecessary punishment for far too long.

The UFC need to do something about this quickly or they are going to have a tragedy on their hands.

 

[fatpiranha]

UFC Fight Night Brunson vs. Shahbazyan

Stuck an early 4-fold accumulator on Perez/Valiev/Borg/Holland to all win at a bit over 7/2. I think it's more of a 5/2 shot so trying to sneak some value on fights I don't plan to prop bet.

A much more interesting card than the last one from a watching point of view. Really looking forward to this .

 

[fatpiranha]

This doesn't look a great card for backing the underdogs and there doesn't seem to be much value on the favourites either . The prop bets on the spreads aren't out yet but I suspect that that is where I'll be doing most of my betting.

One thing to bear in mind is that the octagon at the Apex Center is 5 foot smaller than the standard UFC cage. That is an advantage to the grapplers and the power punchers and there is likely to be more stoppages than if these fights were held in a full size octagon.

I've taken a punt on one of the underdogs because of this. Chris Guitierrez had an impressive win last time out and has a 3-0 record in the UFC. He is about a 1/3 favourite to beat UFC debutant Cody Durden, but Guiterrez relies on a lot of movement and the smaller cage will not be in his favour here, so I'm taking a shot on Durden to win.

 

[fatpiranha]

Still waiting for the spreads on the prop bets to come out ...

In the meantime I've put on another little accumulator. This time a 5-fold at a bit over 5/1 - Perez/Borg/Calderwood/Holland/Shahbazyan to all win.

There's 3 fights on this card I will probably be staying away from. I have no idea whatsoever what will happen in Herman vs Meerschaert .

I won't be betting on Saenz vs Martinez either unless Frankie looks like he's rolled off the couch at the weigh-ins.

Vannata vs Green is an interesting rematch. I'm slightly tempted by Vannata to win in Rnd 1 but the odds would have to be very juicy. More interesting might be to bet in-running. If Vannata wins Rnd 1 but doesn't put Green away I'll try to get a bet on Green as Lando tends to gas.

 

[fatpiranha]

Brunson vs Shahbazyan

If you are a talented, undefeated, young white fighter with a pleasant personality, who has been training since the age of 8, and is celebrity "managed" by Ronda Rousey do you really think that the UFC is going to give you a match that might upset one of the most obvious gravy trains in their promotion? Did I mention his nickname is "Golden Boy" and somehow he is headlining this card in a 3 round fight instead of the usual 5 .

Edmen has looked great so far although he hasn't really beaten anyone of note. Brunson is a 39 year old gatekeeper, who has fought the absolute best in this division, and been unceremoniously KO'd by them. Brunson is a name that looks great on a fighter's record because he has fought all those great fighters and has beaten some decent ones. I'm putting my faith in the skills of the UFC matchmakers to keep the hype train chugging along nicely and have backed Shahbazyan to win in Rnd 1.

Luque vs Brown

Luque has been in some incredible wars so far in his career. He has taken a lot of damage and somehow survived shots that would have knocked out most fighters in the division. Brown is a talented fighter who hits hard and many people think Luque just can't take many more shots before his iron chin fails him. I'll believe it when I see it. Small cage, another war. Someone is likely getting KO'd but I trust Luque's "shot" chin more than Brown's untested one, and bet on Luque to win by KO.

 

[fatpiranha]

Calderwood vs Maia

Joanne didn't need to take this fight. She is next in line to take on the currently injured champion Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight belt. That means a big pay day and a fearful beating as nobody is taking the belt off of "Bullet" anytime soon and pity the fool who tries .

That is all at risk should she lose here so the fact that she is taking on Maia at short notice and without a full camp is a strong indication of how confident she is that she will win.

Maia is a strong, stocky, limited boxer who hits hard. Calderwood's Muay Thai style should see her out volume her by a wide margin. "Bad Mo'fo" is very active especially with her kicks. She doesn't hit hard but she hits a lot. I have bet on Calderwood to win by decision.

Vannata vs Green

Last time they did this Vannata would have stopped Green in the 1st Rnd had he not hit him with an illegal knee giving Green time to recover. Lando then gasses and Green nearly finished him in the 3rd Rnd. As rematches very often play out the same way again I've had a small bet on Vannata to win in Rnd 1 and Green to win in Rnd 3.

Other bets I've had on this card are Perez to win by KO, Holland to win in Rnd 3, and Borg to win.

 

[fatpiranha]

Ugh!

Borg withdrew, Valiev withdrew, Spicely couldn't make weight. Holland reportedly going to fight with an injured shoulder against his doctor's advice. I'm very disappointed as I thought Borg and Perez (Spicely's opponent) were locks.

My 4-fold is now a single on Holland . My 5-fold is now a treble including Holland. The perils of betting before the weigh-in I guess .

 

[fatpiranha]

This card is straight up cursed! 3 fighters pull out yesterday, Hermann vs Meerschaert is cancelled today, and now Trevin Giles faints in the dressing room before the fight and it is called off with minutes to go before it's supposed to take place .

 

[Davo99]

Got the clean sweep of void bets @fatpiranha