- Apr 21, 2005
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I was having a chat with a friend of mine recently about the up-coming season; where different teams would finish, who would do well, etc, etc. My friend lived and died by a simple theory – the team that scores the most goals over the course of the season generally wins the league. Therefore to him, the league was won or lost in the transfer windows because the team that bought the best goal-scorers, would inevitably win the title.
Okay, so his theory isn’t rocket science and it seems a pretty obvious thing to say, but in an era where we can (and we do!) analysis every aspect of statistical data about the game, it’s quite refreshing to have very basic rules of thumb to formulate our predictions.
Anyhow, I had a quick look on wiki and sure enough the team that scored the most goals over 38 games has won the league the last 4 years in a row (and 8 out of the last 10 years). The winning team’s defensive record has to be good also, but it doesn’t necessarily need to be the best.
Anyway, if you take this theory and apply it to our beloved Spurs, it’s a very basic way of comparing ourselves to our competitors, as well as giving us an indication of how far away we are to a title challenge.
If we take the last three seasons and compare our goals scored and points haul to the eventual Premier League winners, the stats read something like this:
2012/13
Goals behind the title winner:23
Pts behind the title winner:17
2011/12
Goals behind the title winner:27
Pts behind the title winner:20
2010/11
Goals behind the title winner:23
Pts behind the title winner:18
In terms of points over the last 3 seasons, Spurs have needed to turn 6 or 7 wins into victories (or a combination of draws/wins) to emerge with 20 extra points, and the league title. And on average they’ve had to score 24/25 more goals a season to win the title.
What I find quite interesting about these stats is the fact that we’ve managed to maintain our points position with the top team, whilst (i) the teams above us have spent obscene amounts of cash on players and (ii) when we ourselves haven’t had a decent 20-25 goal a season striker banging them in.
So what does this mean? Well, in the context of recent seasons, as I’ve said above we need to score another 25 goals over 38 games, and win another 20 points to come away with the league title.
How do we do this?
Firstly, we have to maintain our goals and points record in comparison to our rivals, before adding to it. We’ve managed to keep a constant distance (20pts) from the eventual league winners for the last 3 seasons, so I believe we’ll be able to do this bear-minimum in 2013/14.
Secondly then, we need those extra 25 goals. If, and it’s a big if, we sign the likes of Villa he could add another 12 or 13 goals to Defoe’s tally of last season (23/24 league goals for Villa in total).
Our central midfield was piss-poor last season in terms of league goals, pitching in with a miserly 2 goals between Dembele, Sandro, Parker, Livermore, Huddlestone, Holtby. With Paulinho now in the frame and hopefully a more attack-minded Dembele, 12 or 13 more goals from central midfield could be a reality (14/15 league goals in total).
Finally, there’s Gareth Bale. Our star-player chipped in with 21 league goals last season, so much of this analysis relies on him to reproduce the form of 2012/13. However, there’s one thing I haven’t heard many people (any people??) discuss; what if Bale is even better next season? The guy must be improving in ability and confidence with every game. If you then put him in an improved team (Paulinho and Villa maybe), with a coach who’s realised how to get the best out of him, you might have a player that scores 28, 29, 30 goals. C.Ronaldo managed 31 goals in a similar role a few years back.
To conclude then, I propose that it’s not totally unrealistic to suggest that we could add another 25 league goals to our tally in 2013/14. Okay, that doesn’t guarantee us a league title, but we’ll be very close to it, definitely finishing in the top 4.
Anyway, as always it’ll be interesting to hear what you guys and girls have to say about this. How far away are we from a title challenge? How do we compare to our rivals? What are your predictions for next season?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Premier_League_seasons
.
Okay, so his theory isn’t rocket science and it seems a pretty obvious thing to say, but in an era where we can (and we do!) analysis every aspect of statistical data about the game, it’s quite refreshing to have very basic rules of thumb to formulate our predictions.
Anyhow, I had a quick look on wiki and sure enough the team that scored the most goals over 38 games has won the league the last 4 years in a row (and 8 out of the last 10 years). The winning team’s defensive record has to be good also, but it doesn’t necessarily need to be the best.
Anyway, if you take this theory and apply it to our beloved Spurs, it’s a very basic way of comparing ourselves to our competitors, as well as giving us an indication of how far away we are to a title challenge.
If we take the last three seasons and compare our goals scored and points haul to the eventual Premier League winners, the stats read something like this:
2012/13
Goals behind the title winner:23
Pts behind the title winner:17
2011/12
Goals behind the title winner:27
Pts behind the title winner:20
2010/11
Goals behind the title winner:23
Pts behind the title winner:18
In terms of points over the last 3 seasons, Spurs have needed to turn 6 or 7 wins into victories (or a combination of draws/wins) to emerge with 20 extra points, and the league title. And on average they’ve had to score 24/25 more goals a season to win the title.
What I find quite interesting about these stats is the fact that we’ve managed to maintain our points position with the top team, whilst (i) the teams above us have spent obscene amounts of cash on players and (ii) when we ourselves haven’t had a decent 20-25 goal a season striker banging them in.
So what does this mean? Well, in the context of recent seasons, as I’ve said above we need to score another 25 goals over 38 games, and win another 20 points to come away with the league title.
How do we do this?
Firstly, we have to maintain our goals and points record in comparison to our rivals, before adding to it. We’ve managed to keep a constant distance (20pts) from the eventual league winners for the last 3 seasons, so I believe we’ll be able to do this bear-minimum in 2013/14.
Secondly then, we need those extra 25 goals. If, and it’s a big if, we sign the likes of Villa he could add another 12 or 13 goals to Defoe’s tally of last season (23/24 league goals for Villa in total).
Our central midfield was piss-poor last season in terms of league goals, pitching in with a miserly 2 goals between Dembele, Sandro, Parker, Livermore, Huddlestone, Holtby. With Paulinho now in the frame and hopefully a more attack-minded Dembele, 12 or 13 more goals from central midfield could be a reality (14/15 league goals in total).
Finally, there’s Gareth Bale. Our star-player chipped in with 21 league goals last season, so much of this analysis relies on him to reproduce the form of 2012/13. However, there’s one thing I haven’t heard many people (any people??) discuss; what if Bale is even better next season? The guy must be improving in ability and confidence with every game. If you then put him in an improved team (Paulinho and Villa maybe), with a coach who’s realised how to get the best out of him, you might have a player that scores 28, 29, 30 goals. C.Ronaldo managed 31 goals in a similar role a few years back.
To conclude then, I propose that it’s not totally unrealistic to suggest that we could add another 25 league goals to our tally in 2013/14. Okay, that doesn’t guarantee us a league title, but we’ll be very close to it, definitely finishing in the top 4.
Anyway, as always it’ll be interesting to hear what you guys and girls have to say about this. How far away are we from a title challenge? How do we compare to our rivals? What are your predictions for next season?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Premier_League_seasons
.