shyfx2k2
SC Supporter
- Jan 27, 2011
- 383
- 362
For those of you who don't know (and to be fair only the guys in the poker threads would know this) I play poker quite a bit. I've won some decent money playing and enjoy the theory of the game. One of the most important things in poker (and the most difficult to master for beginners) is making sure that you make the right decisions as often as possible, regardless of what your results are. There are some similarities with football in this regard.
It sounds fairly obvious but let me explain. In poker, unlike a lot of games, you can make the right decisions and still lose (getting unlucky)....you can also make the wrong decision and still win (getting lucky). However, over time, if you make more wrong decisions than right decisions, you will lose money. The key to being a winning poker player is making sure that you make as many right decisions as possible, as often as possible and in the long run, you'll be making a profit.
So what does this have to do with Spurs, or even football I hear you ask?
Well, I was thinking the other day about what is preventing us from having a real go at the title and it got me thinking about how often we make the right decisions during our games and I think that we are just a little bit short of the very top teams at the moment.
Now, I'm not just talking about Kyle Walker's back pass or Defoe's unfortunate toe poke in to the path of Suarez on Sunday. These things happen and it is unfortunate that they cost us the game (I mean let's not forget, Downing got lucky with the ball bouncing from Lloris, on to Downing, then into his path, then his poor shot goes through Vertonghen's legs!)
The difference between us and the teams at the very top of football, your Bayern's, Barcelona's and even teams like Dortmund is that they make the correct decisions in the final third, more often than we do currently. It's important to stress that they don't always make the correct decisions, no team does, but they make the correct decision more of the time in crucial areas. It's what makes them winning teams and teams capable of winning leagues.
My main observation would be when we get into the final third. Here is a common scenario:
A player is running through on goal, on the back of the last defender and he has two options, shoot himself from a slight angle or square for a team mate who has a tap in. We have a number of players who will go for the shotmore often than they will square it, when the more correct play, statistically speaking, would be to square for the tap in.
An example of this is our third against Man Utd, where Bale is put through by Defoe. What if Lindergaard had parried Bale's shot out for a corner? or Bale had blasted it over? Now of course he didn't, and the ball fell into the path of Dempsey for a tap in, but the more correct play in the long run was actually to square it to Dempsey.
If we compare the position of Bale relative to the goal, compared with Dempsey's had the ball been squared to him, I think it is a fair assumption to say that Dempsey would score more times than Bale, as the angle was easier, keeper was out of position attempting to narrow the angle for Bale etc. You could argue that Bale is a better player than Dempsey and is good at finishing from an angle, but I think that if we replayed that scenario 100 times, we would score more often following a squared ball than a shot from Bale. And don't get me wrong, there are times when having a shot from distance or the player in question having a shot themselves is the correct option, as there is nothing else on or no movement in front of them. Similarly, if say Dawson was the man waiting for the tap in, it may be the correct decision for Bale to shoot, as his finishing is far superior to Dawson's (no offence intended Dawson fans)!
Another scenario is going long from the back. Of course you would rather go long when you have a tall, strong, 6'3" CF as they are more likely to win the ball in the air than say Defoe. With Defoe up front, you want to play the ball to feet and into space more. Both are examples of 'playing the percentages', something which generally I think AVB does very well in the way he sets the team up, attempting to play to our strengths in a measured and thoughtful way.
Over time
As in poker, the key to winning a game of football is to 'play better' than the opposition. Essentially, the team who makes the fewest mistakes during a match and makes the most correct decisions should win the game, although that depends on the nature and frequency of the mistakes (massive errors like Walker's compared to minor ones which go unpunished). So you could look at our game against Man Utd and say, well it doesn't matter, Dempsey scored and we won the game 2-3 and you would be right, for that particular game. However, over a period of time, say an entire season, the failure to make the right decisions will catch up with us and it's why we aren't quite ready to take a tilt at the title yet.
So if the above is right, what are the answers? You will always hear fellow Spurs fans saying, 'We're a quality striker away from winning the title' but what does that actually mean? Well for me, it means having a player that will make the right decisions in that crucial area in the final third or the opposition box, more often when compared with the player we currently have in that role and taking into account our way of playing the game. This could be passing instead of shooting, making an unselfish run to draw defenders away, creating space with good movement etc, all of those are potentially examples of good decision making.
One indicator of perhaps needing to improve our decision making is when you look at the number of attempts we have, compared with the number of goals we score. We often have attempts up into the 20's, but we will win a game by a fairly low score. This indicates that rather than being clinical, we are firing away at the opponent's goal in the hope that we score enough to win the game. It may also be an indicator that we don't always make the best decisions and could score more goals than we currently do.
What about skill?
Of course, one thing that makes a player better than another is being 'more talented' or 'more skillful'. However, skill and talent alone doesn't mean you make the right decisions. Ronaldo makes more right decisions now than he did at Man Utd, and he is probably a little bit less of a flair player now. That is because he has replaced the step overs and tricks with better decision making and he is using his skill in a more controlled and effective manner. Messi and Ronaldo aren't the best players in the world purely due to skill, their decision making is excellent too and way above average compared with others in the same positions.
The opposite of this would be someone like Taarabt, who has bags of skill but often his decision making lets him down. Clearly when we look at someone like Bale, he is much closer to the likes of Messi and Ronaldo than Taarabt, if we placed him on a scale. It's his decision making which is slightly behind the top two at the moment, but this should come with age and experience. That doesn't mean he will necessarily become as good as them (Messi can do things that no other players can) but if he improves in this area, he can maximise his own potential.
Summary
Of course, the answers to this issue are varied. Recruiting better players is certainly an option and the most obvious one. Also, ensuring that we coach young players really well is also an option so that when they come through, they quickly become key assets and have that sound decision making.
Drilling teams in common scenarios can lead to players making the right decisions more often. AVB talked about this recently in an interview I read on here and it's something that the military do a lot, repeating scenarios over and over again to ensure that they become second nature.
I've used the above example of being one on one with a keeper as it is a common one for us and the easiest to explain. I think overall our decision making has improved a lot this season and in particular, Lennon's decision making is massively improved. That is in part down to AVB and part down to Lennon himself. It's this aspect of the game that Walker needs to be given time to develop and work on too. If in a couple of years time he hasn't kicked on or learnt from his mistakes, then we can potentially think about saying that he hasn't lived up to the expectations we've put on him.
I would also like to say that this isn't a thread knocking the team or anything we've done this season. I've been really impressed with AVB and the team has really gone from strength to strength. Of course the above scenario doesn't take into account wonder goals, freak shots bobbling over a goalkeeper's foot, refereeing errors and beach balls because nothing can, but hopefully it will make sense and be a little thought provoking and may help to explain why, despite the obvious improvements and great spirit under AVB's management, we still remain a little shot of the top.
I'm sorry if anyone has found it confusing but it was just something that was running through my mind.
COYS!!!
It sounds fairly obvious but let me explain. In poker, unlike a lot of games, you can make the right decisions and still lose (getting unlucky)....you can also make the wrong decision and still win (getting lucky). However, over time, if you make more wrong decisions than right decisions, you will lose money. The key to being a winning poker player is making sure that you make as many right decisions as possible, as often as possible and in the long run, you'll be making a profit.
So what does this have to do with Spurs, or even football I hear you ask?
Well, I was thinking the other day about what is preventing us from having a real go at the title and it got me thinking about how often we make the right decisions during our games and I think that we are just a little bit short of the very top teams at the moment.
Now, I'm not just talking about Kyle Walker's back pass or Defoe's unfortunate toe poke in to the path of Suarez on Sunday. These things happen and it is unfortunate that they cost us the game (I mean let's not forget, Downing got lucky with the ball bouncing from Lloris, on to Downing, then into his path, then his poor shot goes through Vertonghen's legs!)
The difference between us and the teams at the very top of football, your Bayern's, Barcelona's and even teams like Dortmund is that they make the correct decisions in the final third, more often than we do currently. It's important to stress that they don't always make the correct decisions, no team does, but they make the correct decision more of the time in crucial areas. It's what makes them winning teams and teams capable of winning leagues.
My main observation would be when we get into the final third. Here is a common scenario:
A player is running through on goal, on the back of the last defender and he has two options, shoot himself from a slight angle or square for a team mate who has a tap in. We have a number of players who will go for the shotmore often than they will square it, when the more correct play, statistically speaking, would be to square for the tap in.
An example of this is our third against Man Utd, where Bale is put through by Defoe. What if Lindergaard had parried Bale's shot out for a corner? or Bale had blasted it over? Now of course he didn't, and the ball fell into the path of Dempsey for a tap in, but the more correct play in the long run was actually to square it to Dempsey.
If we compare the position of Bale relative to the goal, compared with Dempsey's had the ball been squared to him, I think it is a fair assumption to say that Dempsey would score more times than Bale, as the angle was easier, keeper was out of position attempting to narrow the angle for Bale etc. You could argue that Bale is a better player than Dempsey and is good at finishing from an angle, but I think that if we replayed that scenario 100 times, we would score more often following a squared ball than a shot from Bale. And don't get me wrong, there are times when having a shot from distance or the player in question having a shot themselves is the correct option, as there is nothing else on or no movement in front of them. Similarly, if say Dawson was the man waiting for the tap in, it may be the correct decision for Bale to shoot, as his finishing is far superior to Dawson's (no offence intended Dawson fans)!
Another scenario is going long from the back. Of course you would rather go long when you have a tall, strong, 6'3" CF as they are more likely to win the ball in the air than say Defoe. With Defoe up front, you want to play the ball to feet and into space more. Both are examples of 'playing the percentages', something which generally I think AVB does very well in the way he sets the team up, attempting to play to our strengths in a measured and thoughtful way.
Over time
As in poker, the key to winning a game of football is to 'play better' than the opposition. Essentially, the team who makes the fewest mistakes during a match and makes the most correct decisions should win the game, although that depends on the nature and frequency of the mistakes (massive errors like Walker's compared to minor ones which go unpunished). So you could look at our game against Man Utd and say, well it doesn't matter, Dempsey scored and we won the game 2-3 and you would be right, for that particular game. However, over a period of time, say an entire season, the failure to make the right decisions will catch up with us and it's why we aren't quite ready to take a tilt at the title yet.
So if the above is right, what are the answers? You will always hear fellow Spurs fans saying, 'We're a quality striker away from winning the title' but what does that actually mean? Well for me, it means having a player that will make the right decisions in that crucial area in the final third or the opposition box, more often when compared with the player we currently have in that role and taking into account our way of playing the game. This could be passing instead of shooting, making an unselfish run to draw defenders away, creating space with good movement etc, all of those are potentially examples of good decision making.
One indicator of perhaps needing to improve our decision making is when you look at the number of attempts we have, compared with the number of goals we score. We often have attempts up into the 20's, but we will win a game by a fairly low score. This indicates that rather than being clinical, we are firing away at the opponent's goal in the hope that we score enough to win the game. It may also be an indicator that we don't always make the best decisions and could score more goals than we currently do.
What about skill?
Of course, one thing that makes a player better than another is being 'more talented' or 'more skillful'. However, skill and talent alone doesn't mean you make the right decisions. Ronaldo makes more right decisions now than he did at Man Utd, and he is probably a little bit less of a flair player now. That is because he has replaced the step overs and tricks with better decision making and he is using his skill in a more controlled and effective manner. Messi and Ronaldo aren't the best players in the world purely due to skill, their decision making is excellent too and way above average compared with others in the same positions.
The opposite of this would be someone like Taarabt, who has bags of skill but often his decision making lets him down. Clearly when we look at someone like Bale, he is much closer to the likes of Messi and Ronaldo than Taarabt, if we placed him on a scale. It's his decision making which is slightly behind the top two at the moment, but this should come with age and experience. That doesn't mean he will necessarily become as good as them (Messi can do things that no other players can) but if he improves in this area, he can maximise his own potential.
Summary
Of course, the answers to this issue are varied. Recruiting better players is certainly an option and the most obvious one. Also, ensuring that we coach young players really well is also an option so that when they come through, they quickly become key assets and have that sound decision making.
Drilling teams in common scenarios can lead to players making the right decisions more often. AVB talked about this recently in an interview I read on here and it's something that the military do a lot, repeating scenarios over and over again to ensure that they become second nature.
I've used the above example of being one on one with a keeper as it is a common one for us and the easiest to explain. I think overall our decision making has improved a lot this season and in particular, Lennon's decision making is massively improved. That is in part down to AVB and part down to Lennon himself. It's this aspect of the game that Walker needs to be given time to develop and work on too. If in a couple of years time he hasn't kicked on or learnt from his mistakes, then we can potentially think about saying that he hasn't lived up to the expectations we've put on him.
I would also like to say that this isn't a thread knocking the team or anything we've done this season. I've been really impressed with AVB and the team has really gone from strength to strength. Of course the above scenario doesn't take into account wonder goals, freak shots bobbling over a goalkeeper's foot, refereeing errors and beach balls because nothing can, but hopefully it will make sense and be a little thought provoking and may help to explain why, despite the obvious improvements and great spirit under AVB's management, we still remain a little shot of the top.
I'm sorry if anyone has found it confusing but it was just something that was running through my mind.
COYS!!!
