Form against top 4 vs form against the rest

[matp]

Since our last serious push for 4th place under Jol in 2005/06 we have continued to play fairly well against top 4 sides but failed to do the bread and butter work that pushes you up the league - consistently beat poorer teams.

So far this season we have lost against the likely top 2 but beat everyone else often by a large margin. I am confident that we will pick up some points against the top 4 this season but at the end of the day are these games that important? They only amount to 24 point in the whole season and, while the games against Pool and Arse are likely to be 6 pointers (if we have any hopes of breaking into the top 4), I am convinced that its our results against the rest which will be critical.

We have been particularly poor against the bottom half of the table in recent seasons but there are encouraging signs that this is changing. We have real steel about our play now and are grinding out results too like against Birmingham and are consistently hammering poor sides. The Burnley result combined with previous results continued promising signs that we are ready to make a real push this season.

It could just be a patch of good form, but if that were the case I would have expected the wheels to come off after bad results against Man U and Chelski, particularly since Modric's injury. Instead we have picked up right where we left off :grin:

 

[StockSpur]

30 games all wins , 90 points, I think wed all be happy not to beat the top 4 if this were to happen. And we beat pool already so its 31 wins and 93 pts so far, do we win the title with that?

coys

alternatively my cynicism chip has kicked in and I see the beginnings of the formation of a 2nd tier of top teams like in spain and italy, not the chosen ones but the teams that regularly battle it out for the uefa cup spots.

Spurs, Man City, Aston Villa and Everton are the 2nd group of 4 I refer to.

 

[matp]

30 games all wins , 90 points, I think wed all be happy not to beat the top 4 if this were to happen. And we beat pool already so its 31 wins and 93 pts so far, do we win the title with that?

coys

alternatively my cynicism chip has kicked in and I see the beginnings of the formation of a 2nd tier of top teams like in spain and italy, not the chosen ones but the teams that regularly battle it out for the uefa cup spots.

Spurs, Man City, Aston Villa and Everton are the 2nd group of 4 I refer to.

How did I manage to forget our defeat of Liverpool .

It looks to me that the top 4 is being pulled back this season - there is a smoother transition between them and the rest now and they will drop points. Even if we don't beat any of them again, if we can maintain consistency against poorer teams we will be in the mix.

I actually think a gap will appear between 2nd and 3rd this season and my prediction is that all the teams you mentioned (but particularly us and City) will be right in there with Pool and Arse

 

[robbiesavagehasbreasts]

30 games all wins , 90 points, I think wed all be happy not to beat the top 4 if this were to happen. And we beat pool already so its 31 wins and 93 pts so far, do we win the title with that?

coys

alternatively my cynicism chip has kicked in and I see the beginnings of the formation of a 2nd tier of top teams like in spain and italy, not the chosen ones but the teams that regularly battle it out for the uefa cup spots.

Spurs, Man City, Aston Villa and Everton are the 2nd group of 4 I refer to.

Man City will be around or in the top4. If it doesn't happen this season, then it will the next.

 

[ShelfSide18]

I don't think we should get into the predicting of results thing, it's a footballing cliche I know, but I think we should take every game as it comes and try to keep up and around 3rd/4th place for as long as possible. We are good enough to beat any of the top 4, with a bit of luck, but we are also liable to go to Wolves and lose. As long as we keep within a reachable distance of the top 4 this season I'll be very very happy, and that means just keep doing what we are doing and if we lose a game make sure we bounce back straight away if we lose a game or 2.

I reckon we will sneak an away victory out of the top 4 this season though, please let it be in october.

 

[robbiesavagehasbreasts]

It doesn't matter home or away, top4 or bottom4.

it's about getting those 20+ wins that usually is the number for all the top4 spots. 22 wins is 66points, so we only need a couple of draws from there to reach 70+.

 

[matp]

It doesn't matter home or away, top4 or bottom4.

it's about getting those 20+ wins that usually is the number for all the top4 spots. 22 wins is 66points, so we only need a couple of draws from there to reach 70+.

Exactly. I think we get too hung up on "testing how far we've come" against top 4 sides. While 6 pointers matter obviously, our league season will be judged a success or failiure based on how we do against the rest.

Its an interesting way of looking at it - to count wins. Makes a lot of sense given the points system. So 5 down 15 to go :up:

 

[worcestersauce]

Last season against the bottom eight clubs our points tally was: -
Boro 3pts

Sunderland 1pts

Pompey 1pts

Bolton 3pts

Stoke 3pts

Blackburn 3pts

Hull City 3pts

WBA 3pts

20pts from a possible 48pts

Not one of those clubs did we get the better of and that was what did for us last year and that is why we must beat the equivalent teams this year.

 

[Kendall]

I've said it a few times over the past few seasons, I could not give too much of a shit about our form against the likes of United and Chelsea, the annoying thing is when we get beat at Bolton, at Stoke etc.

We lost to every single team in the bottom half last season, right those wrongs and we will be up there.

 

[Shanks]

If we win this weekend, I might start allowing myself to get a little more excited.

But, there are a few other teams were we will most likely drop points.

I cannot see us getting 6 points against Man City and Villa, and possible Everton.
POssibly from Arsenal, and we have already had 3 from Liverpool.

Like someone said, if we can get the 20+ wins from anywhere, that will put us in a good position.

It is going to be one of the closest season this year, I reckon you could say 7 teams are battling for the top four.

I do believe that chelsea and Utd have the league in their hands, so not counting those two as such yet.

 

[matp]

If we win this weekend, I might start allowing myself to get a little more excited.

The game this weekend is traditionally one of our hardest of these games and so perhaps its not representative of a season long push to win the games we should. It would be great to win but a draw would still be a good sign IMO