Halfway Mark Goal Difference

[Sweech]

2005/2006 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2006/2007 Bolton Wanderers 4th at half way point and finished: 7th
2007/2008 Usual Top 4 (With Liverpool)
2008/2009 Aston Villa 4th at half way point and finished: 6th
2009/2010 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 4th
2010/2011 Usual top 4 (Now with City instead of Liverpool)
2011/2012 Tottenham 3rd at half way point and finished: 4th
2012/2013 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2013/2014 - Everton 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2014/2015 - Southampton 4th at half way point and finished: 7th

So last 10 yrs: 8/10 years the top 4 had a team not typically top 4 material. Of those 6/8 dropped out of the top 4 by the end of the season and were ALWAYS replaced by a traditional top 4 team (With City overtaking Liverpool due to Oil money).

In each of those occasions with the possible exception of Arsenal, those top 4 outspent their rivals.

Now in each of those cases the fourth team's GD was not spectacular and usually well behind at least two of the other teams above them, so it is true that our GD this year for example is cause for optimism, but you asked for evidence to my argument that historically speaking teams not used to top 4 finish drop out of top 4 between half way point and end, there you go.

It wasn't to invalidate the original stats, just that stats in isolation don't always tell the whole story.

But you're not using his stats at all, you're using league placement.

We already knew league placement wasn't an indicator.

GD tends to be a good indicator though as often GD is how the table ends up sorting out itself.

 

[Geyzer Soze]

In 7/8 of those cases the non-traditional top 4 team dropped at least 1 position between now and the end of the season.
In 0/8 times did that team drop by more than 3 places (i.e. out of European Qual.).
In 0/8 times did that team finish higher than their place at the half way stage
In 0/8 times was there more than 1 non traditional team in the top 4 (so 2 this season is a first)

But frankly this season is bonkers, so who the feck knows....

This year there are 2 non traditional top 4 teams though. I'd say that we will overhaul leicester as we start gettting to the sharp end of the season, they can't possibly hold up. Mind you i been saying that since november

 

[Riandor]

But you're not using his stats at all, you're using league placement.

We already knew league placement wasn't an indicator.

GD tends to be a good indicator though as often GD is how the table ends up sorting out itself.

I never said I would, I was saying Stats in isolation, whether its GD or League placement history or any other cannot be regarded as gospel.

I then stated I felt as though most non-traditional top 4 teams that were top 4 come the mid-way point got a nose bleed and dropped out again come the end. In that regard I was right.

In both instances though I feel as though neither will be applicable to this season in determining winner or top 4. One thing I noticed about the GD aspect though was that the winner on each occasion usually had a significant GD over at least 2 of the other top 4 teams if not all 3 at the half way point. We don't and are 4th only 2 points ahead of 5th.

The stats do not say what our eyes tell us week in week out, that this season is far too close to call across the board vs most others.

Arsenal have only the third highest GD so far, yet we still think they are the likeliest at this point to win the title don't we? Or at least I do. Last season the team with the third highest GD at this stage was Southampton they came 7th. Are Arsenal going to come 7th? There was also a whopping 13 points gap between 1st and 5th, today its 7 points. We laugh perhaps at LVG saying Man United are in the title race, but honestly, why the hell not, this season has been bonkers enough that nothing would surprise me and thus as good as the stats were regarding GD I maintain they do not apply to this season. Time will tell.

 

[E.L.Strict]

2005/2006 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2006/2007 Bolton Wanderers 4th at half way point and finished: 7th
2007/2008 Usual Top 4 (With Liverpool)
2008/2009 Aston Villa 4th at half way point and finished: 6th
2009/2010 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 4th
2010/2011 Usual top 4 (Now with City instead of Liverpool)
2011/2012 Tottenham 3rd at half way point and finished: 4th
2012/2013 Tottenham 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2013/2014 - Everton 4th at half way point and finished: 5th
2014/2015 - Southampton 4th at half way point and finished: 7th

So last 10 yrs: 8/10 years the top 4 had a team not typically top 4 material. Of those 6/8 dropped out of the top 4 by the end of the season and were ALWAYS replaced by a traditional top 4 team (With City overtaking Liverpool due to Oil money).

In each of those occasions with the possible exception of Arsenal, those top 4 outspent their rivals.

Now in each of those cases the fourth team's GD was not spectacular and usually well behind at least two of the other teams above them, so it is true that our GD this year for example is cause for optimism, but you asked for evidence to my argument that historically speaking teams not used to top 4 finish drop out of top 4 between half way point and end, there you go.

I agree that wage bill is perhaps the ultimate indicator as to how a team will perform, but I disagree that this is demonstrated by your stats above.

Using the 19 game goal difference method, only Southampton should have finished in the top 4, in my opinion making it irrelevant that in some seasons Bolton or Villa occupied fourth place at half way, as they were not among the best goal differences anyway, so never likely to finish in the top 4. Personally I would consider it a fact that you will be wrong more times if trying to predict the top 4 based on position after 19 games as opposed to goal difference after 19 games.

If I were going to try and enhance the method, I would try to look include "extreme" results in the goal difference analysis. For example, Southampton, the only outlier of the last decade, had an improbably large 8-0 win vs Sunderland which boosted their goal difference hugely. If this had been a 1-0 win the halfway mark goal difference top 4 would have been the same as the eventual top 4, giving the method a 100% success rate over the last 10 years.

For the record I don't actually think we will win the league. However I am certain we will finish in the top 4.

 

[Riandor]

Ok I really really didn't want the stats I pulled out to be any form of prefered method and I definitely think the GD stats are more reliable anyway.

I really just felt that history showed that by and large it was the big spenders who got top 4 and those not accustomed to top four come new year faded away. It was half based on gut feeling and memory.

I was challenged to prove it and thus did.

Lastly I only wanted to say I didn't feel either methodology was going to prove entirely accurate this season given the nature of how it's gone so far.

I apologise if you thought I was questioning or trying to belittle your original post, not the case or intention.

 

[E.L.Strict]

So the prediction for the final top 4 was correct. But we become the second team out of 11 to not win the league from our position.

 

[mightyspur]

So the prediction for the final top 4 was correct. But we become the second team out of 11 to not win the league from our position.

 

[E.L.Strict]

I find this interesting so I'm going to keep updating it.

The story so far:

In the last 11 seasons (upto and including 05/06):

- The team with the greatest goal difference after 19 matches has won the league on all but two occasions. (Chelsea 08/09, Tottenham 15/16)

- The teams with the 4 greatest goal differences have finished as the eventual top four 7 out of 11 times. (Arsenal 08/09, Chelsea 07/08, both with just one goal separating them from the 19 Game top 4, and then Arsenal twice more, having trailed the 19 game top 4 by three and four goals.)

-The teams with the top 3 goal differences have finished in the eventual top 4 every year but one (Southampton 14/15.)

This season:

13 Games played

Chelsea +19
Liverpool +18
City +17
Arsenal +15

Spurs +9

United +3
Everton +1

To me this makes pretty dismal reading, especially because we have only lost a single game and only by a single goal. We need serious goals and we need them soon!

There's also an emerging bottom 5 GDs

Burnley -9
Swansea -10
West Ham -10
Sunderland -11

Hull -17

In our next 5 games we have 3 of these teams, Burnley, Swansea and Hull ALL at home. For me, just winning these games isn't enough. I think we need to come out from these games with at least +10 to our GD and the whole 9 points, or over the course of the season I just don't think we will get enough points to contend.

Our other 3 matches to take us to the halfway mark are United, Southampton and Watford.

 

[youngyids]

We might have only lost one game and only by one goal, but we have drawn 6 and won only 6, with Stoke away the only win by more than 1 goal.

Also, in all competitions, we have won only 1 out of our last 10 games.

We could probably Play bloody Hashtag United atm and still manage to draw.

 

[E.L.Strict]

Final Halfway Mark GD Table

1. Chelsea +29
2. Liverpool +25
3. Spurs +23
4. Arsenal +22

5. City +18
6. United +10

So based on this it's likely that Chelsea will win the league.

The final top 4 should almost definitely contain Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs.

The final top 4 is likely to be Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal.

City are 4 goals behind, which over the period I looked at has only been overcome once.

United shouldn't really be considered to be in contention at all.

 

[mark87]

Final Halfway Mark GD Table

1. Chelsea +29
2. Liverpool +25
3. Spurs +23
4. Arsenal +22

5. City +18
6. United +10

So based on this it's likely that Chelsea will win the league.

The final top 4 should almost definitely contain Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs.

The final top 4 is likely to be Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal.

City are 4 goals behind, which over the period I looked at has only been overcome once.

United shouldn't really be considered to be in contention at all.

Ridiculous how much we have improved our goal difference in the last month.

 

[nightgoat]

Ridiculous how much we have improved our goal difference in the last month.

Coincides with Kane coming back to fitness and Alli and Eriksen hitting form.