Harry Kane

[TheWook]

There's so much to weigh up here for Harry.

He could get the ideal move to a team that is expected to win everything and win nothing, he could not fit in with the personalities or the playing style, the fans might not take to him, his family may not settle.
And the jokes will come about "couldn't even win anything with them" (imagine the magnitude of the jokes if we then went on to win something when he left while he won nothing...)

Then he could stay here and Ange gets the best out of us and he could enjoy what remains of his time with us picking up 20+ goals a season.

On the flip side though, he could win the lot elsewhere. Or stay here and it doesn't work for him in Ange's system.

It's certainly not an easy call, but you would think the easier choice would be to stay/extend.

It will forever be the Harry Kane curse if that happens

 

[kd2000]

He could move to Munich or another club and get injured in the first game, I doubt any player goes through their career thinking what if I get injured.

Not quite what I meant.
If he went to Bayern, in the short term he could win trophies (likely)
If he stayed in England he could break Shearers record but thats potentially 3 seasons away.

Who knows what he is tinking?

 

[JacoZA]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

 

[cjsimba]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Kidding. I like your boxes

 

[McFlash]

Tell me why I'm wrong.

I don't want to after you went to such effort to display things in such a colourful way!

 

[fishhhandaricecake]

There's so much to weigh up here for Harry.

He could get the ideal move to a team that is expected to win everything and win nothing, he could not fit in with the personalities or the playing style, the fans might not take to him, his family may not settle.
And the jokes will come about "couldn't even win anything with them" (imagine the magnitude of the jokes if we then went on to win something when he left while he won nothing...)

Then he could stay here and Ange gets the best out of us and he could enjoy what remains of his time with us picking up 20+ goals a season.

On the flip side though, he could win the lot elsewhere. Or stay here and it doesn't work for him in Ange's system.

It's certainly not an easy call, but you would think the easier choice would be to stay/extend.

These are all very very unlikely Apart from his family not settling and even then Munich is a very nice City and he’d be in a well run country where pretty much everyone speaks very good English.

 

[fishhhandaricecake]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Like for that table haha!
Would’ve got a winner if it had been a ven diagram

 

[robotsonic]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Not selling him and getting CL is way better than selling him and not getting it, unless you value £100m more than CL football? I'd rather the club have been successful above anything else, as I'd have thought most would to be honest!

 

[kd2000]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Im not saying you are wrong, but heres my slightly alternate take.
Getting the Kane money and not finishing top 4 might mean the calibre of strikers we could attract (with not being in the champions league, both in terms of prestige but finanancially for the club) is reduced.
Getting champions league with Kane and then him leaving still brings financial reward which is significant in terms of revenue, which in turn creates funds to replace Kane, but importantly opens up the possiblity of strikers who only want to consider Champions League clubs.

Great table though

I appreciate ya

 

[Dazza86]

Kane defintiely equals a better chance of landing CL next season, but there's also a risk even if we get it that he might not stay either way. It's not like being in the CL has proven to as important for us as it's always been made out to be, and if you're Kane, why would CL qualification mean enough to sign a new contract anyway? The players we sign when we get there have been worse than the ones we sign when we're not in it. Granted our approach to recruitment is apparently changing (fans have been calling for this for years), but the track record exists.

The only way I think he stays is if we put a proper challenge in for the league (like a surprise Arsenal last season) or win a cup + CL qualification. However, that was also the case last summer.

We need proper CBs or goodbye Kane on a free IMO.

 

[mil1lion]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

There's far more to it than that and you're talking about if we get top 4 in both scenarios. Well the possibility of top 4 is far greater with Kane. Also the chances of winning something far greater with Kane. There are other factors too like the image of Kane and how that impacts many fans around the world. Shirt sales and sponsorship deals etc. Not to mention another season with one of our greatest players. Another season adding to the clubs record scorers which will run even longer if he stays another season. Theres also the prospect of convincing him to stay even longer. So much more to consider.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Your table gives no account of likelihood of each scenario - Top right is far more likely than top left, likewise, bottom left is far more likely than bottom right.

On top of that, I would not say that finishing outside the top four is the worst case scenario - what if we end in a relegation dogfight? Unlikely overall, but probably more likely if we sell Kane now.

Furthermore, what if we ended outside the top four but won a cup?

A further aspect to consider.......if we sell Kane and get £80m........do we trust ENIC to reinvest that money? If not, then I would say that option is less than optimal for us as fans.

 

[jolsnogross]

Funny stuff. Wondering whether a top class player and multi millionaire will struggle somewhere away from Spurs. Or that he might linger on with us on the off chance we win something. Funny stuff.

 

[HobbitSpur]

The silence from other PL clubs doesn’t really make much sense.

I am completely ignorant when it comes to being able to keep things behind closed doors, but knowing what a cockwomble his brother is, would it not be possible that he has already spoken to PL suitors for the 24/25 season?

 

[jay2040]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

You can not quantify his presence in the team . If we don't sell him I don't see it as bad.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

A further aspect to consider.......if we sell Kane and get £80m........do we trust ENIC to reinvest that money? If not, then I would say that option is less than optimal for us as fans.

This is often repeated as a reason for not selling Kane, but makes no sense whatsoever.

A team with £80m to invest always has a chance at a better ROI, than a team with £0 to invest. Always.

And, given the track record of the recent recruiting team, it’s not even close. We will be a much better team if we replace Kane with £80m worth of players than if we replace Kane with £0.

 

[cliff jones]

thought-provoking stuff. You're not wrong, but as others have said there's more to it than you illustrate. If we keep him and come top 5, (yep 5, isn't it?) there's a chance he re-signs.

If we sell him there's a good chance we don't use the money well. THe most sustainably unsuccessful club story continues...

 

[Chris Flynn]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Because its football not game theory (which is widely discredited)

 

[Retoanderik88]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Because those are not all the outcomes and the outcomes aren't equally weighted in possibility?

 

[Styopa]

thought-provoking stuff. You're not wrong, but as others have said there's more to it than you illustrate. If we keep him and come top 5, (yep 5, isn't it?) there's a chance he re-signs.

If we sell him there's a good chance we don't use the money well. THe most sustainably unsuccessful club story continues...

I don't think qualifying for the Champions League would give Kane a compelling reason to stay. We've already qualified for the Champions League multiple times during his time at the club. We were even in the Champions League this season.