Harry Kane

[eddiev14]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

What about the mystery box?

The outcome where we keep him this summer, win the FA cup, finish top 4 and he signs a new contract?

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

This is often repeated as a reason for not selling Kane, but makes no sense whatsoever.

A team with £80m to invest always has a chance at a better ROI, than a team with £0 to invest. Always.

And, given the track record of the recent recruiting team, it’s not even close. We will be a much better team if we replace Kane with £80m worth of players than if we replace Kane with £0.

My point was not really about how succesful ENIC would be in investing that £80m in new players......it was more whether we trust them to invest it at all!

Replacing Kane with £80m worth of players is better than replacing Kane with £0..........but what if we replace Kane with £80m of dividends or preferential shares to shareholders? As a fan, that is sub-optimal to me.

 

[wrd]

I think we should sell Kane.

Assumptions:

• If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
• If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club

Scenarios:
View attachment 128574

The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.

So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Appreciate the work and the effort mate but ultimately, you're missing a couple of scenarios here which undermines the strength of the argument of the top left box. First of all ignores any possibility of Kane staying, no matter how unlikely that is, it still has to be a variable. Another is a variable which may affect Kane's decision which is the possibility of winning trophies this season and you can split that into the cups and the league separately arguably as one may be of greater influence than the other. So I disagree with the analysis that getting Kane money and getting Champions League money is awesome because they're other scenarios on the table. The strength of probability should not have weight on the perception of outcome.

 

[elfy]

I don't think qualifying for the Champions League would give Kane a compelling reason to stay. We've already qualified for the Champions League multiple times during his time at the club. We were even in the Champions League this season.

Kane has always been pretty upfront and clear, all the time we are competitive and challenging - he'll stay.

I don't think it even comes down to winning something, it's about (IMO) being in the hunt, with a realistic chance of winning. If we have a season like Arsenal just had, even if we implode like they did, I think thats what Harry wants to see - a real, genuine shot at the title. All the time we were vying for the title and playing in cup finals, he's been happy. We were competitive.

I've seen so many people say 'if we sign this player, he'll stay', 'if we appoint this manager, he'll stay' but it's nonsense.

No matter who we sign, who the manager is, how much money we spend. If we are not in a position to realistically challenge for serious honours (and I don't think the league or FA cup would be sufficient), he is not re-signing.

Top 4 won't cut it. The only way I can see him convinced to stay beyond this season is if come Easter we are within a few points of the top of the table.

 

[wrd]

Kane has always been pretty upfront and clear, all the time we are competitive and challenging - he'll stay.

I don't think it even comes down to winning something, it's about (IMO) being in the hunt, with a realistic chance of winning. If we have a season like Arsenal just had, even if we implode like they did, I think thats what Harry wants to see - a real, genuine shot at the title. All the time we were vying for the title and playing in cup finals, he's been happy. We were competitive.

I've seen so many people say 'if we sign this player, he'll stay', 'if we appoint this manager, he'll stay' but it's nonsense.

No matter who we sign, who the manager is, how much money we spend. If we are not in a position to realistically challenge for serious honours (and I don't think the league or FA cup would be sufficient), he is not re-signing.

Top 4 won't cut it. The only way I can see him convinced to stay beyond this season is if come Easter we are within a few points of the top of the table.

Yeah it's going to have to be a significant shift. I think either top4 and a cup or the scenario you laid out gives a chance but it's probably still a low possibility because for Kane, perhaps winning the F.A cup is the perfect sign off and move on, only he knows but personally I'm far more interested in what everybody else brings over this season because I think we'll be okay without him.

 

[stevenb7]

It's clearly very tough, but one other factor that plays on my mind...

If Kane stays, I think this significantly increases the chances he joins a domestic rival next summer. Here's what I'm worried about; if he stays and is fit he'd surely get 20 or so goals closer to Shearer's record. While right now he may be thinking about trophies ahead of the record as it's 2-3 seasons away, surely if he's within touching distance that changes the calculus. If he feels that one more good season gets him there, would he walk away?

While maybe that also increases the chance he stays, I'm finding it harder and harder to see that.

As from previous posts, there are too many unknowns and I really don't know where I land on this - I flip-flop most days! I'd love him to stay, and could make peace with losing him for free to a Bayern, Real, etc next summer if it went that way. But losing him on a free to a domestic rival would hurt the most

 

[Nerine]

My point was not really about how succesful ENIC would be in investing that £80m in new players......it was more whether we trust them to invest it at all!

Replacing Kane with £80m worth of players is better than replacing Kane with £0..........but what if we replace Kane with £80m of dividends or preferential shares to shareholders? As a fan, that is sub-optimal to me.

I don’t think that would ever happen.

If we were to sell Kane and be seen to not replace him with the cash received, the fan backlash would be unprecedented.

Like, proper nasty.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I don’t think that would ever happen.

If we were to sell Kane and be seen to not replace him with the cash received, the fan backlash would be unprecedented.

Like, proper nasty.

The club would say they've already spent that money...

 

[danovice]

Kane has always been pretty upfront and clear, all the time we are competitive and challenging - he'll stay.

I don't think it even comes down to winning something, it's about (IMO) being in the hunt, with a realistic chance of winning. If we have a season like Arsenal just had, even if we implode like they did, I think thats what Harry wants to see - a real, genuine shot at the title. All the time we were vying for the title and playing in cup finals, he's been happy. We were competitive.

I've seen so many people say 'if we sign this player, he'll stay', 'if we appoint this manager, he'll stay' but it's nonsense.

No matter who we sign, who the manager is, how much money we spend. If we are not in a position to realistically challenge for serious honours (and I don't think the league or FA cup would be sufficient), he is not re-signing.

Top 4 won't cut it. The only way I can see him convinced to stay beyond this season is if come Easter we are within a few points of the top of the table.

A few thoughts along this thread:

1. Too many have convinced themselves that Kane going to Germany doesn't make sense. If it doesn't make sense, then we potentially don't understand the situation. Like in chess, take the time now to prove your theory wrong. If you can't, then play the move in accordance with that theory.

2. So, how could the theory be wrong?
a. He is in his prime and does not want to waste even one more year in the uneven management of Spurs without playing at the highest competitive level (i.e., he is competitive and wants to compete now).
b. There is a personal issue with Spurs management (e.g., gentlemen's agreement) that in principle he cannot tolerate any longer.
c. He is underpaid and risks long-term injury and massive financial consequence in the last year of his contract.
d. etc., etc.

3. In my opinion, there are a lot of reasons why going to Germany makes sense to a professional footballer at the height of their career, and not to us average joes.

 

[Stoof]

Personally I like physically attending the games and seeing Harry Kane play for us more than I care about one particular season with/without Europe.

Sometimes it's about the fans.

 

[aliyid]

Saw a load of new pages in here and was expecting some news but nope just people venting a load of negativity.

Very limited benefit in selling Kane IMO. We won't get what he's worth (if Rice is £105m then lord knows what Kane is worth) plus does the money actually matter to us at the moment?

• We're not in financial trouble
• We're not close to breaking FFP
• Spent £60m on Richy last year and he got 1 lge goal

There's no such thing as a guarantee in football but Kane bagging a boat load of goals and assists for us is as close as you can get.

 

[chas vs dave]

Personally I like physically attending the games and seeing Harry Kane play for us more than I care about one particular season with/without Europe.

Sometimes it's about the fans.

I go with my dad, he's 74 now. I'm at the point where I just want to go and enjoy the games with him, whilst he can still do it. Last season was not a good one for memories. I actually had to walk out a few times.

I'd prefer to watch kane play, and see Spurs bang in lots of goals.

 

[Dunc2610]

The one assumption people are making is that we can actually sell him, as if no one makes an offer, we can't sell him!!

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Personally I like physically attending the games and seeing Harry Kane play for us more than I care about one particular season with/without Europe.

Sometimes it's about the fans.

Are Spurs then just an entertainment business, with no connection to sporting?

If the goal is to entertain fans, that explains a lot and why we struggle to replicate the clubs whose goal is to win.

 

[aliyid]

A few thoughts along this thread:

1. Too many have convinced themselves that Kane going to Germany doesn't make sense. If it doesn't make sense, then we potentially don't understand the situation. Like in chess, take the time now to prove your theory wrong. If you can't, then play the move in accordance with that theory.

2. So, how could the theory be wrong?
a. He is in his prime and does not want to waste even one more year in the uneven management of Spurs without playing at the highest competitive level (i.e., he is competitive and wants to compete now).
b. There is a personal issue with Spurs management (e.g., gentlemen's agreement) that in principle he cannot tolerate any longer.
c. He is underpaid and risks long-term injury and massive financial consequence in the last year of his contract.
d. etc., etc.

3. In my opinion, there are a lot of reasons why going to Germany makes sense to a professional footballer at the height of their career, and not to us average joes.

This does go both ways....

How could moving to Germany be wrong?
a. He's got an eye on his global profile for his post-football career (been on US talk shows, expressed an interest in NFL, etc...) the Bundesliga doesn't have the same profile / following that the premier league has, will he drift off peoples radar?
b. There's no guarantee that he'll be the success everybody expects. Just look at Manes move to Bayern... Does he want to take that risk
c. He's so close to breaking what many believed was an unbreakable record as top prem goal scorer. People don't talk about Shearer as premier league winner with Blackburn they know him as the all time highest scorer.
d. Children are starting school and his wife is pregnant with another. We know he's a family man and wouldn't want to relocate his family to a foreign country just as they're about to start school where they don't know the language? Would he equally be happy living in a different country and missing out on his newborn growing up?

I think you have to weigh the pros against the cons and if it's equal on both sides it's better the devil you know

 

[Stoof]

Are Spurs then just an entertainment business, with no connection to sporting?

If the goal is to entertain fans, that explains a lot and why we struggle to replicate the clubs whose goal is to win.

I'm talking about my personal reasons for wanting us to not sell Kane.

If we want to replicate other clubs' goal to win, then we're going to need an emirate. That's the cold hard fact - and whilst we're short of said emirate, I'd like to see H do the jumpy hand up and downy thing he does after he's scored a goal whilst wearing Spurs colours, whilst I've had two pints with my mates who I don't see that often.

Entirely personal.

 

[djhotspur]

The club would say they've already spent that money...

No they wouldn’t. We didn’t do it with bale or modric the only time we did was berba. Zero chance we lose our talisman for 100m and don’t spend money to replace him.

 

[Wig]

This is often repeated as a reason for not selling Kane, but makes no sense whatsoever.

A team with £80m to invest always has a chance at a better ROI, than a team with £0 to invest. Always.

And, given the track record of the recent recruiting team, it’s not even close. We will be a much better team if we replace Kane with £80m worth of players than if we replace Kane with £0.

You're often repeating this as if it is so binary - get £80M or 0.

I want to cling on to the slim possibility that we improve enough next year, that makes Kane think "You know what, my family and I are happy here, so why I don't I stick around for the rest of my career, smash the PL record and watch them build my statue outside the stadium."

My point is that rather than having to reinvest £80M on players that are inferior to Kane, how about we keep Kane for several more years which will be worth far more than we get by spending £80M.

 

[Russ1201]

I just can't subscribe to this "he deserves more" way of thinking.
He plays for a big club, his boyhood club and gets paid very handsomely for doing it.
He captains his country, will probably captain his club and is widely thought of as one of the best strikers in the world.

Nobody "deserves" trophies because they aren't easy to win unless you use a cheat code.
I wouldn't say that it's unambitious if he was more than happy with what he's already got.
I'm sure he'd love to win a shiny cup, who wouldn't? But it's better to actually earn it, than get it handed to you on a plate.

Well said totally agree.

 

[WiganSpur]

Because those are not all the outcomes and the outcomes aren't equally weighted in possibility?

Yeah, don't get me wrong, the chances of Kane signing a new deal later in the season are slim but no one's going to tell me they are zero.