Here is how to get into the Top Four

[Ironskull]

Consider the 16 teams, among them Spurs, who are not in the top 4 now. One of them has an excellent season by comparison with the rest and gets a W22 D4 L4 record. Against the top 4 teams they don't do so well and achieve W1 D4 L3. Total record W23 D8 L7 Pts 77. That team would have finished 4th this season.

A better record is conceivable, and it's also conceivable that one of the top 3 might not perform so well in the league as this year, so higher might be possible. the real difficulty that team would have would be in handling its success the following season. It would still be vulnerable to losing players to CL clubs; it would probably need a larger squad to handle the CL games; it would struggle to adapt to performing on 4 fronts, and it would face renewed competition from whichever team it had ousted.

I think a team WILL penetrate the top 4 within the next two seasons. A freak year might even see it compete for the league, how glorious would that be, but even if that were to happen I don't believe any of them would be able to sustain it, even with huge investment in players unless on an absolutely massive and highly unlikely scale.

 

[Bakez]

thanks for stating the obvious

 

[smithym]

so in a nut shell, we have to win games to get to the top 4.

coool, thats easy!

 

[joey55]

There is a bit more to Ironskulls point than perhaps people are suggetsing. He is making a valid point and if we look at our results over the previous 2 seasons to this one, there is very strong evidence to suggest we'd have made the top 4 if we had better luck with injuries. When Leds plays we averaged more points per game than Arsenal 2 seasons running and Liverpool once. This was without any wins against the top 4, but from being more consistent against the other 15 sides. Had Leds not been injured for so much of the time, we'd have almost certainly qualified for the CL, by simply being so good against the other sides. It's just such a shane we bought so badly in the summer. Had we bought in a suitbale Leds replacement, who could have been fit for most of the season, who knows where we'd be now.

 

[padgateyids]

R record vs sides that come up from the championship hasnt been great either. We should be looking for 14 out of 18 points from those games. We do well vs sides around us generally.
We need better away form by turning those draws in to a couple of wins.
Also think we need a near unbeaten home record. Well not lose to the likes of birmingham and Newcastle.
I know this is obvious. But if these things happen next season
our record against the "big four" wont matter that as much.

 

[chinaman]

I hope Ramos will be able to solve most of our problems next year: inconsistency against middle and lower level clubs, holding our own against top 4 ones and preserving leads once we have them. And pronto, we'll be in CL.

 

[camaj]

In Jols second and third season we came very close to getting there. It's not as hard as some people believe. I think it's almost a psychological barrier, like beating Chelsea or Arsenal. There's no reason why we couldn't do it, we just didn't believe we could.

All we needed was 2 more points in 05/06 and a few more in 06/07. Those extra points were well within our capability. Our problem is almost certainly consistency, especially from the midfield players. If your midfielders are inconsistent, the team is inconsistent and results are inconsistent.

I love Berba, but he's part of the problem. As good as he is, he often doesn't turn up for games. That said there are many times when he's simply got no supply. The same inconsistency can be found with Jenas, Lennon and Huddlestone. Usually they seem to have their off days at the same time, there's no one there to snap them out of it.

 

[guy]

berbatov is not the problem!! You are wrong to single him out.
Every player has off days and keane has as many as berbatov if not more! The difference being, on keanes off day he does nothing except flap, whilst on berbas he still has those few flashes of brilliance that he or another player can still score from. he just doesnt run around as much as keane

 

[DC_Boy]

.

I love Berba, but he's part of the problem. As good as he is, he often doesn't turn up for games. That said there are many times when he's simply got no supply. The same inconsistency can be found with Jenas, Lennon and Huddlestone. Usually they seem to have their off days at the same time, there's no one there to snap them out of it.

tsk tsk Camaj what about Robbo's off days Keane's off days Daws off days - King's literal off days (ie his injury record) Zokora's off days (they lasted about half a season) Chimbonda's off days

JJ is no more inconsistent than most Spurs players - in fact I'd say he's one of our more consistent players - he's certainly more consistent then Keane who'll have bad periods that last a month or more (although I supoose that's consistency in a way

 

[DEFchenkOE]

The old cliche of being consistently incosistent most definitely applies to us and always has so far in my life time, one minte we're drawing with Man U and Chelsea the next we're getting hammered by Newcastle and Birmingham.

If Juande can find the magic formula to stop this then of course we can make the top 4, but obviously there is no simple solution. Even when we nearly made it with Jol, a tiny bit more consistency against some of the lesser teams and we could have made it.

One thing though and that is we must get off to a good start, every game counts but it seems at the start of seasons we seem to think that the fisrt few games don't mean as much.

 

[joey55]

This argument about inconsitency doesn't wash with me. Simply because given the relative strength of our squad compared to the rest of the Prem, we were surely the most consistent team over the last 3 years. In Jol's first season, we had about the 10th strongest squad and would have finished 4th had the league started when he took over. The following season we had about the 7th strongest squad and finshed 5th. Last season we had about the 5th strongest squad and again finished 5th. When you see our results when King played we consistently (2 years running) picked up more points than Arsenal. Basically when our top 4 standard players were fit, we were consistently the 4th best side. For the rest of the time we picked up points on a more consistent basis than any other side outside the top 4. This suggests to me, we aren't any less consistent than any other teams and had we had better quality players we'd have won more games consistently. Basically it all comes down to players. We don't ahve any mental blocks, or lack consistency anymore than other sides. We just don't have the quality. I accept the argument that we have ups and downs, which some may describe as inconsistency, but surely everything has to relative to the reallity of football. And in relative terms we have been one of the Prems most consistent performers in recent years. If people are saying that to win games on a more consistent basis we need to buy better players I fully agree, but if they are saying that by nature we have been a particualry inconsistent club in recent years I disagree, because it simply isn't true.

I don't see any magic formula for consistency other than buying better players. Given the squad we had, we were as consistent as could be expected under Jol. The ultimate proof comes from looking at results when key players are fit. When the spine of our team is on the pitch (ie King, JJ and Berbs - the key defender, midfielder and striker), we have lost just once in 18 games. That is consistency by any standards.

 

[DC_Boy]

good points joey - love this stat

When the spine of our team is on the pitch (ie King, JJ and Berbs - the key defender, midfielder and striker), we have lost just once in 18 games. That is consistency by any standards

I agree about there's a lot of mythology about our inconsistency

I bet an analysis of the last 5 years - indeed the last 10 years - will show this - our points haul from the top 4 is considerably less than the bottom 4 - our points haul from the top 6 is considerably less than the bottom 6 (making any necessary changes the seasons we finish top 6)


decade on decade I've heard this stuff about how we play better against the top sides but are poor against the bottom sides

yet our record against top 4 during prem years has been terible

if we played against the poor sides like we played against the top we'd have been relegated by now

sure we've had loads of gallant draws/defeats over the years against top 4 sides

if you lose which we mainly do - it's way too easy to say we played well but lost - once or twice maybe but after a while nah - we lost that's it

maybe JR will change the record in lge games (he's already done a good bit in Cup games)

 

[joey55]

Here is some more proof. Season 2006/7 Arseanl won 51 pts from teams outside the top 5. We won 56 pts. Basically we were far more consistent. We only finished behind Arseanl by losing to side better than us. Given our relative strength we were more consistent. In seaon 2005/6 we took 61pts from outside the top 5 and Arseanl took 60. Again we showed greater consistency. The only thing holding us back was lack of quality.

 

[DC_Boy]

I'm so glad you posted that Joey - once again the stats blow away the myths

 

[joey55]

I'm so glad you posted that Joey - once again the stats blow away the myths

It's true though, stats are so useful, yet dismissed so needlessly by some people. Consistency, like so many other things, can't be measured on an individual basis, but with the rest of the teams in the Prem and we have to take into account relative strengths of these other teams. If we look at it purely from our point of view, it does seem we are dropping needless points to teams we shouldn't. However, a quick look at the stats, tells us, that this is perfectly normal, all teams do it and comparitively with the other teams, we have infact been one of the most consistent sides in recent years.

 

[bill]

how to get into top 4.

Ok here goes .............


1) Do not concede goals, score goals and win more games than all the other teams. Lose no games. Do not draw any games.


Do all that and you are certain for a top 4 finish.


and people say i'm a genius LOL

 

[DEFchenkOE]

How can you guys say we're not inconsistent??? We lose far too many games that we shouldn't and struggle to pick up points away from home, only 3 wins this season. For me that shows inconsistency, regardless of who we had playing, over the season we were inconsistent. What is the point of picking out a stat that shows 18 games over 2 seasons? Everyone knows that we are better when we have King but the bottom line is we didn't for the most of those games so that is our fault for not buying a proper replacement.

You're comparing the one season which was our best and Arsenal's worst in years and we still could not finish above them, maybe if we had shown some more consistency (especially away) we would have.

 

[Krafty]

The problem with the top 4 is that they are too many points ahead, its not a case of winning one game, and its not even a case of taking points of the big 4. We arent going to get 80 points, but collectively we can stop the top 4 getting 80 points. But not enough of the premiership is trying to beat the top 4 at the moment, and until several teams (or more) have the belief they can beat the top 4 it will be massively difficult for a new team to get up there.

Look at keegan and Redknapp, they dont think the top 4 can be overtaken, they dont think they can get points off them, so they dont bother and focus on getting points off everyone else.

Hopefully us, Everton, Villa and maybe even Man City will have the belief they can beat the top 4 and drag them nearer to the rest of the league. But we (Spurs, fans, the premiership as a whole) need everyone to try to take points off the top teams. A lot dont bother, field weaker teams, play defensive, unfamiliar formations, and just hope they dont get thrashed.

 

[joey55]

How can you guys say we're not inconsistent??? We lose far too many games that we shouldn't and struggle to pick up points away from home, only 3 wins this season. For me that shows inconsistency, regardless of who we had playing, over the season we were inconsistent. What is the point of picking out a stat that shows 18 games over 2 seasons? Everyone knows that we are better when we have King but the bottom line is we didn't for the most of those games so that is our fault for not buying a proper replacement.

You're comparing the one season which was our best and Arsenal's worst in years and we still could not finish above them, maybe if we had shown some more consistency (especially away) we would have.

We compared the 2 full seasons Jol had, with Arseanls, not just one. The point being made is that every team is inconsistent, but relative to the strength of our squad, we have in fact been one of the most consistent sides in recent years. If you look at it, as you have, from our results only, then it is easy to suggest we are inconsistent. But we have to be comparitive with other sides. The inconsistency argument hasn't just popped up this season, but in the last few seasons. The 18 games example is simply to show how much more consistent we are when our key players are fit and hence suggest that our problems aren't some Tottenham Hotspur psycological weakness that means we are an inconsistent club, but that we simply need better players. We aren't any different to the top clubs. When we have top players playing, we have consistent results.

Also, haven't we been consistently shit all this season? To be inconsistent surely we have to have had periods of goor results, but other than a good win against Pompey and Man City, we haven't shown any form all season. I don't think we ever won more than 2 prem games in a row. There weren't any runs of good form, to make the odd unexpected loss here or there, look like inconsistency. What you are basically saying is that we need to be better. To do this we need to buy better players.

 

[chinaman]

how to get into top 4.

Ok here goes .............


1) Do not concede goals, score goals and win more games than all the other teams. Lose no games. Do not draw any games.


Do all that and you are certain for a top 4 finish.


and people say i'm a genius LOL

If we can achieve that, we'll be Champs, not just top 4.