Is this our strongest ever PL team...?

[ajspurs]

If we're talking first team, if picked as we all would like to see, then on paper yes.

But in reality we all know things can be different. Paulinho could end up a Juan Seba Veron. Soldado a Moritentes, Chadli a Marin etc.. We just don't know.

Losing Bale though, would be a huge loss because I feel he will knit the new players together as he is such a driving force. All these potential changes to players and system could actually destabilise us - not make us better.

In the last 6 seasons we have only won our opening game once, that's a joke and shows up a real issue with the way in which we prepare. I can't help but feel, even despite breaking transfer records, we are currently massively destabilised.

I agree, it's just hard to know at this stage. The biggest shame has been to be able to try and gel this team together with any pre season games. Ok, Soldado only just signed but it's unfortunate that we haven't been able to get Sandro to work with Dembele and Paulinho/Parker for instance in the midfield 3 with Chadli and Lennon out wide plus whatever striker we have available. Then it would just be a case of slotting a few players into a system we've already become a bit accustomed to.

It's annoying because we've made some great acquisitions and it feels like we have such a good squad of players yet for whatever reason we haven't got all those players out on the pitch in this pre season.

 

[ShelfSide18]

I agree with the last bit. As I've said elsewhere I think people underestimate the part randomness/luck plays in results.

Let's say you could work out the quality of each team pretty accurately, and you had a model which predicted that Spurs would get 68 points, and Liverpool 66. If you played that season a 1000 times it's not that each and every time Spurs would get 68pts, and Liverpool 66pts, there'd be variation due to random factors. At a guess I'd say random factors could amount to between plus and minus four and six points a season. Let's split the difference and say five. Now then in any given season that would mean it would be quite reasonable for us to score at the top end of that distribution and get 72 pts, whilst Liverpool randomly score at the bottom end of the distribution and get 61 pts. The true quality gap is a couple points, the result is a 11 point margin.

That for me is the danger of using "what happened" alone, as a predictor for what happens next. Now it may be that Liverpool are significantly worse than us, but looking at their team and their depth they don't appear to be to me, so then we only have last season's results to fall back on, and I say they're not really an indicator in the way you'd like them to be!

Read the book 'The Numbers Game'. They put the result of each game down to 50% luck - it is a very random game.

That's why it's all about winning small margins, and I think AVB is great at winning those small margins.

 

[Gilzeanking]

I think people underestimate the part randomness/luck plays in results.

And there we have it . Applies in football , applies in life . All those skin of our teeth/one goal victories last year ,could easily with an unlucky bounce/an unsighted ref/etc etc , have gone the other way and vice versa of course . Factoring chance into an understanding of football outcomes is not a popular pastime it seems.

 

[sloth]

Read the book 'The Numbers Game'. They put the result of each game down to 50% luck - it is a very random game.

That's why it's all about winning small margins, and I think AVB is great at winning those small margins.

I actually started to read it a couple of months ago on the recommendation of an investor, but while they talk a good game, if you're in the business it's actually pretty naive, and loads of school-boy type errors and assumptions that they make.

 

[ultimateloner]

I actually started to read it a couple of months ago on the recommendation of an investor, but while they talk a good game, if you're in the business it's actually pretty naive, and loads of school-boy type errors and assumptions that they make.

Any examples? Just out of curiosity. If it's too long (too much to type) then forget it.

 

[sloth]

Any examples? Just out of curiosity. If it's too long (too much to type) then forget it.

Not really. I guess I could probably find some, but they'd be pretty dry. To give you an idea of what I mean though, me and my analyst went to a statistics in Sport conference in Belgium the other week. Loads of talks and presentations by professors and their PHD students, and a smattering of Sports Quant types like us (not talking but attending), basically they're good on the theory, but the theory never gets tested in the cauldron of real betting, and as a result it's hard for them to tell the difference between what works and what doesn't. Also, they're all building on previous academic papers, but none of them have real access to proper time-stamped data so they're fishing in the dark really. Some of them are on the right track, but it ends up pretty basic stuff and full of misconceptions because they can't test what they're theorising about, there's also a lot of people going over the same ground and getting to the same stage but no further. This is what the authors of that book have done.

They've also assumed a degree of sophistication on the part of the bookmakers which doesn't really exist. Bookmakers are pretty constrained by Betfair these days inasmuch as they can't afford to arb the exchange, and anyway what they do is pretty much about risk management, so, for example, they'll typically pay out 90p in the pound on a toss of the coin type event, that's their locked in margin, called an overround. Straight-forward when you know the real odds are 50/50, and a big margin to cover mis-pricing, but not so straight-forward when you're trying to rate competitors, so to protect themselves they have a pretty sensitive trigger which will detect winners even at what they think is a big margin, and they'll simply stop taking their bets if they think that's what they are. Basically, just as with a slot machine, you can't win. Unless you're an old school gambler, which knows the stable-boy or whatever, in which case you might use multiple alias's and get on big when you think the advantage is large enough! Betaif changed everything though with their exchange model which just takes a comm of winning bets, and from people like us something called the Premium Charge (an up to 60% tax on winnings) and so welcomes winners. Hence the growth of Sports Quants like ours.

 

[DubSpurs]

Dude, no.

Man City have done the best transfers so far this year IMO. The players they've bought, on top of what they have already, leaves us way behind.

Also, there is no way in hell we are currently capable of winning it this year. This reads like a RAWK comment that most people on here would laugh their heads off at.

If Arsenal buy Suarez, they'll finish above us - unless we keep Bale and add another top quality attacker to our squad. But if they don't and based on how things stand right now, this is my prediction:

City
Chelsea
Man Utd
Us
Arsenal
Liverpool

Very early days to be even considering calling it. Utd, City and Chelsea all with new managers and surely Utd still have a marquee signing to make.

Call me optimistic but if we get a solid CB and Verts and Kaboul come back early and in form, I've a sneaky suspicion we might just grab 3rd

 

[Lilbaz]

It will be
Us
Us
Us
Us
Chelski

And we'll still fail to qualify for CL

Only joking, we're gonna win everything!

 

[Spursking]

During the Klinsmann era, (his first spell) we could have had the best team ever, but at the time, we only had football people who had an idea, not a sense of what a good team was/is.

We had world starts like Klinsmann, Sheringham (at the time, he was a star). but the team as a whole wasn't really good.

Sol at the back was good at the time, though.

I won't mention the other poor players we had. We had a lot of them.... Just think about what a team we could have had at that time. If we had invested back there, we would have won the league.

 

[Chezaspur]

Our best squad/team for many a year.
With so many managerial changes, this season is so unpredictable,
but I'm going for....

1st Chelsea
2nd Man City
3rd Spurs
4th Man Utd
5th Arsenal

 

[Harry_Snatch]

Our squad will be even stronger than that imo. Not done yet.

My best guess is that we are after a LB, another CB and a forward to replace either JD or Ade. If we do that business well, then we can challenge for the title, no doubt!

 

[thinktank]

My best guess is that we are after a LB, another CB and a forward to replace either JD or Ade. If we do that business well, then we can challenge for the title, no doubt!

Yup. I'd love to see some sort of competition for Walker as well. Naughton is a no no.

 

[hodsgod]

And there we have it . Applies in football , applies in life . All those skin of our teeth/one goal victories last year ,could easily with an unlucky bounce/an unsighted ref/etc etc , have gone the other way and vice versa of course . Factoring chance into an understanding of football outcomes is not a popular pastime it seems.

Randomness isn't totally random though. There are plenty of studies on statistics and standard deviations, it applies to football as much as anything else.

The proof randomness doesn't have a major effect, it affects everyone , and the best teams are always at the top of the league.

 

[NEVILLEB]

I think we're two players away from a league winning team.

A new left back and an attacking midfield/forward.

Bale aside, we lack a bit of creative genius in the final third. The fact that I can list 3 different players for one position indicates we could strengthen there. Someone like Modric or VDV ironically...

4-3-3

LLoris
Walker
Kaboul
Verts
BAE
Sandro
Paulinho
Dembele
Bale
Soldado
Chadli/Lennon/Holtby



4-4-2

Lloris
Walker
Kaboul
Verts
BAE
Lennon/Chadli
Sandro
Paulinho
Dembele
Bale
Soldado

 

[fortworthspur]

with Bale, definitely our best PL side. I agree its down to Chelsea and City based on the strength of their sides, but we could realistically finish 3rd. Even 2nd is possible considering how City consistently underachieve.

 

[NEVILLEB]

City have the best squad. No doubt about that.

Are Chelsea going to be that good? A team with Terry, Luiz, Torres and Lampard still in the team?

Keep Bale and we have a chance.

Lose him and we're fighting for fourth again.

 

[Spursh]

If we keep Bale & sign a someone like Coentrao at LB, then it will be the best XI I've seen in my lifetime. If Bale does leave, we definitely need to replace him with top class quality, with Lamela being the obvious choice, although Di Maria would still be an excellent signing.

There is still an argument that we need to bolster the striker and CB depth though, but compared to even 4 or 5 years ago, we have moved up so many levels.

 

[Dan Yeats]

I hate to be greedy, but I don't think the #WeNeedAStriker meme is dead yet. If Soldado get's crocked we're fucked again. we need a really talented 18/19 year old to sit on the bench and play the last 20 of every other game.

I like Defoe and I'd keep him as an impact sub against teams vulnerable to his style, but he's incredibly 1-dimensional.
The less said about Ade the better. If he comes good again then great, but for all his huff and puff last year, he simply didn't play as a striker.
Harry Kane I like, and I think the kid could become a 20 goal a season striker if played in the right system. Largely because he has an excellent football brain and sense of position - similar to Teddy in that respect. But he's no where near ready to lead the line if Bobby Soldier got injured.

Also need a CB. We've only got three FFS. Why we let Caulker go I can't fathom - there's fuck all chance of buying his quality for £8m, certainly not with the years he's got ahead of him. The only consolation is that we have a first refusal clause in there, so maybe we'll bring him back after a couple of seasons' experience.

 

[Harry_Snatch]

Yup. I'd love to see some sort of competition for Walker as well. Naughton is a no no.

Never seen him at RB tbh.

 

[SpurSince57]

I hate to be greedy, but I don't think the #WeNeedAStriker meme is dead yet. If Soldado get's crocked we're fucked again. we need a really talented 18/19 year old to sit on the bench and play the last 20 of every other game.

I like Defoe and I'd keep him as an impact sub against teams vulnerable to his style, but he's incredibly 1-dimensional.
The less said about Ade the better. If he comes good again then great, but for all his huff and puff last year, he simply didn't play as a striker.
Harry Kane I like, and I think the kid could become a 20 goal a season striker if played in the right system. Largely because he has an excellent football brain and sense of position - similar to Teddy in that respect. But he's no where near ready to lead the line if Bobby Soldier got injured?

Also need a CB. We've only got three FFS. Why we let Caulker go I can't fathom - there's fuck all chance of buying his quality for £8m, certainly not with the years he's got ahead of him. The only consolation is that we have a first refusal clause in there, so maybe we'll bring him back after a couple of seasons' experience.

Because he isn't that good? He wanted regular first-team football, but I very much doubt AVB would have agreed to our flogging him if he'd rated him. After all the ballyhoo about how good he was at Swansea, I must confess I was underwhelmed, particularly by his aerial ability, or lack of. Another CB would be nice, but a DM who could do the job would be just as good, and provide more versatility?

If Soldado gets crocked? You can't plan on a worst-scenario basis. It looks as if we're going to play one up front, and having three strikers is more than adequate. Don't you remember the problems we had keeping everyone happy under Jol? And surely, if you rate Kane so high (I like the cut of his jib too), can't he fulfil the role of the 'really talented 18/19 year old to sit on the bench and play the last 20 of every other game'? Would a 'really talented 18/19 year old to sit on the bench and play the last 20 of every other game' be ready to lead the line if Soldado got injured.