- Mar 17, 2015
- 336
- 503
If we want to climb higher up the league table, we need goals. Let's look at how many we've scored in past seasons.
2009/10: 67 (4th)
2010/11: 55 (5th, large margin)
2011/12: 66 (4th)
2012/13: 66 (5th, tiny margin)
2013/14: 55 (6th)
2014/15: 58 (5th, large margin)
If we want to properly challenge for the Champion's League, we're going to need seven or eight more goals next season. Where are they going to come from? Let's look at how many goals came from our top 3 scorers in past seasons.
2009/10: 30 out of 67 (45%)
2010/11: 30 out of 55 (55%)
2011/12: 39 out of 66 (59%)
2012/13: 39 out of 66 (59%)
2013/14: 23 out of 55 (42%)
2014/15: 42 out of 58 (72%)
What we can see from this is that we are massively reliant on Kane, Chadli and Eriksen for goals. They scored 72% of our premier league goals, 13% higher than the any other top 3 of recent years. Losing them three would hurt us more than it would hurt Real to lose Bale, Benzema and Ronaldo; it would hurt us more than it would hurt Bayern to lose Lewandoski, Robben and Muller; it would hurt us only slightly less than it would hurt Barca to lose Messi, Suarez and Neymar.
What makes things even worse for us is that half of our top 3's goals came from Harry Kane. Kane has only had one season in the premier league, and has looked mediocre on his numerous loans. Although I love Kane, there's no guarantee he will be any good next season. Michu went from 18 league goals to 2. I think Kane will get around least ten, but I would not expect more, though it wouldn't surprise me.
We need to increase our goals total by ten to challenge for the Champions League next season. However, we could see it drop by ten if Kane can't maintain his form, or by twenty is Kane does a Michu.
So, where do we get more goals from?
-A new striker. We're going to need a new striker to be Kane's backup. If this striker gets all of the minutes Soldado and Adebayor got last season, they should be able to amass a decent amount of goals, although probably less than ten.
-Lamela. At the end of last season, he started improving rapidly. If he can keep up that level of performance, there's no reason he can't score around five goals.
-Townsend, Pritchard, and a possible new left winger. The backups to our first choice attacking three should be able to score two or three goals each.
-Dele Alli? We have no idea if he can make the step up from League 1 to the Premiership, but Mason did. If Alli adapts quickly and earns himself a place in the team, he could get some goals.
What do all of you think? Will we score enough to make up for a drop in Kane's form? We will score enough to put up a serious fight for Champions League qualification?
2009/10: 67 (4th)
2010/11: 55 (5th, large margin)
2011/12: 66 (4th)
2012/13: 66 (5th, tiny margin)
2013/14: 55 (6th)
2014/15: 58 (5th, large margin)
If we want to properly challenge for the Champion's League, we're going to need seven or eight more goals next season. Where are they going to come from? Let's look at how many goals came from our top 3 scorers in past seasons.
2009/10: 30 out of 67 (45%)
2010/11: 30 out of 55 (55%)
2011/12: 39 out of 66 (59%)
2012/13: 39 out of 66 (59%)
2013/14: 23 out of 55 (42%)
2014/15: 42 out of 58 (72%)
What we can see from this is that we are massively reliant on Kane, Chadli and Eriksen for goals. They scored 72% of our premier league goals, 13% higher than the any other top 3 of recent years. Losing them three would hurt us more than it would hurt Real to lose Bale, Benzema and Ronaldo; it would hurt us more than it would hurt Bayern to lose Lewandoski, Robben and Muller; it would hurt us only slightly less than it would hurt Barca to lose Messi, Suarez and Neymar.
What makes things even worse for us is that half of our top 3's goals came from Harry Kane. Kane has only had one season in the premier league, and has looked mediocre on his numerous loans. Although I love Kane, there's no guarantee he will be any good next season. Michu went from 18 league goals to 2. I think Kane will get around least ten, but I would not expect more, though it wouldn't surprise me.
We need to increase our goals total by ten to challenge for the Champions League next season. However, we could see it drop by ten if Kane can't maintain his form, or by twenty is Kane does a Michu.
So, where do we get more goals from?
-A new striker. We're going to need a new striker to be Kane's backup. If this striker gets all of the minutes Soldado and Adebayor got last season, they should be able to amass a decent amount of goals, although probably less than ten.
-Lamela. At the end of last season, he started improving rapidly. If he can keep up that level of performance, there's no reason he can't score around five goals.
-Townsend, Pritchard, and a possible new left winger. The backups to our first choice attacking three should be able to score two or three goals each.
-Dele Alli? We have no idea if he can make the step up from League 1 to the Premiership, but Mason did. If Alli adapts quickly and earns himself a place in the team, he could get some goals.
What do all of you think? Will we score enough to make up for a drop in Kane's form? We will score enough to put up a serious fight for Champions League qualification?