Player Watch Player Watch: Brennan Johnson

[Ginola+Tonic]

That was a very good offer from Brentford and already way overpriced for Johnson yet they’ve rejected it.

That’s more money than Nico Williams release clause and we could also get Bakayoko for around £25m or so and he has a higher ceiling. Just walk away and sign a better alternative.

You keep referring to this but it’s clear we need homegrown players and that’s why the push for Johnson

 

[spurslenny]

I'm equally unconvinced that Brennan Johnson is a player we should be prioritising right now.

However, a lot of us had similar concerns (transfer decision making + whether the players are good enough) around us signing Vicario & VDV instead of meeting the reportedly higher asking prices for Raya & Tapsoba. Vicario & VDV are looking good enough so far that I find it perfectly believable that Ange may actually have been his first choices.

Likewise, Solomon was scrutinised due to being a free transfer. The fact that he did well at Fulham and is proven to be very capable of making an impact off the bench is overlooked by many fans, in favour of more expensive but no more (or less) proven options who we opted against - such as Anthony Gordon.

Also, it would be inconsistent to criticise our approach to transfers only for the players we don't rate highly. Maddison was linked to the club well before Ange was in the picture, so may well have been more of a "club signing" than anyone else. This hasn't been scrutinised in the same way, despite being a big money signing, because us fans wanted Maddison. Yet how much us fans want a player has no bearing on whether Ange wants them.

Phillips and Veliz seem to have been accepted as signings for the future, yet we have no way of knowing whether either of them was more or less of a "club signing" than Rodon, Clarke or Spence (who's signings have all been widely criticised).

Realistically, I think Ange has given the nod for all transfers so far and is at least content with every signing we've made (and is probably ecstatic about some).

Great Post. I would add that Ange (by all accounts) not only wants the player, but the person, i.e. Good attitude in tandem with ability, rather than higher ability and a knob (eg Ndombele, Spence).

If he's vetting them and deeming they fit the environment he's creating, then I'm totally onboard.

 

[Guntz]

That was a very good offer from Brentford and already way overpriced for Johnson yet they’ve rejected it.

That’s more money than Nico Williams release clause and we could also get Bakayoko for around £25m or so and he has a higher ceiling. Just walk away and sign a better alternative.

The thing with release clauses is that you have to pay it upfront.

Whereas a normal transfer fee would normally be spread over 3+ years.

£42m in one payment is a hell of a lot of money.

 

[barry]

I’d love to know what data Brentford are looking at when it comes to Johnson because his stats pretty much across the board on Fbref are atrocious

Probably not using a free website to get data on a multimillion pound transfer.

 

[jpascavitz]

I’d love to know what data Brentford are looking at when it comes to Johnson because his stats pretty much across the board on Fbref are atrocious

I think it's around his ball carrying and shots -> SOT -> Above average finisher.

These clubs will build custom models to try and project how a player will fit in their style or system. Maybe he's the best option available that is also considered HG? That's my guess

 

[wrd]

I'm equally unconvinced that Brennan Johnson is a player we should be prioritising right now.

However, a lot of us had similar concerns (transfer decision making + whether the players are good enough) around us signing Vicario & VDV instead of meeting the reportedly higher asking prices for Raya & Tapsoba. Vicario & VDV are looking good enough so far that I find it perfectly believable that Ange may actually have been his first choices.

Likewise, Solomon was scrutinised due to being a free transfer. The fact that he did well at Fulham and is proven to be very capable of making an impact off the bench is overlooked by many fans, in favour of more expensive but no more (or less) proven options who we opted against - such as Anthony Gordon.

Also, it would be inconsistent to criticise our approach to transfers only for the players we don't rate highly. Maddison was linked to the club well before Ange was in the picture, so may well have been more of a "club signing" than anyone else. This hasn't been scrutinised in the same way, despite being a big money signing, because us fans wanted Maddison. Yet how much us fans want a player has no bearing on whether Ange wants them.

Phillips and Veliz seem to have been accepted as signings for the future, yet we have no way of knowing whether either of them was more or less of a "club signing" than Rodon, Clarke or Spence (who's signings have all been widely criticised).

Realistically, I think Ange has given the nod for all transfers so far and is at least content with every signing we've made (and is probably ecstatic about some).

I think the transfer decision making on Vicario and VDV was certainly within the structure, the reports were that it was the head scout who really valued Vicario I believe and VDV/Tapsoba was a toss up but VDV being left footed may have been taken into consideration.

The issue with Solomon, as somebody who participated in the concerns regarding that one was, signing him before the manager was in place. Again it was about signing players out of a structure involving the manager, thankfully they waited. So from my perspective, it wasn't the free transfer nature that was the main contention in that deal, it was the possibility of pressing forward before the manager was even chosen. The other two deals, there was some concern about the cheap option, particularly with Vicario, I think it was perfectly reasonable to have some concern, given the fanbase was more familiar with Raya but that the scouting department look to have provided a masterstroke on both those two, so I completely agree with you there. I hope that whatever facilitated those two transfers, is what is driving the Johnson deal.

I don't think there's anything wrong with being linked with players before a manager is in place, so long as we didn't sign them and then hire a manager, who may have had different vision for what was needed. As I said the structure can be Paratici and the scouts and then the manager is factored in, my specific point was, it is concerning if we are still making transfers that are not part of a structured process, the if is critical though. I say it is not unfounded because of what happened literally last season with Spence first, then Danjuma. Therefore I'd say it is reasonable to have concerns but without conviction.

It would be inconsistent, that's why I said, whether it yields a good player or not sometimes, so I don't think that's a point for me to contend as to my knowledge, I've been consistent. I agree that Ange probably has given the nod, I personally don't believe that Johnson would be the player he wants in the sense of, if he had to pick a name in world football for the hole we need to sort, that's just based on my opinion though, there's nothing supporting that opinion though.

 

[arunspurs]

That was a very good offer from Brentford and already way overpriced for Johnson yet they’ve rejected it.

That’s more money than Nico Williams release clause and we could also get Bakayoko for around £25m or so and he has a higher ceiling. Just walk away and sign a better alternative.

How can he be overpriced, when 2 clubs are in for him around the same price ?

Nico Williams release clause of 50m has to be paid in full to the player, so he can buy himself out of the contract through Spanish Liga. We are never going to do this. AND, more importantly, the player has repeatedly said he wants to stay.

Btw, Bakayoko has not even played 25 Eredevisie league games in his career. And you want us pay 25m for him ? Now which is the over priced deal here ?

 

[yido_number1]

If you'd have told me 6 weeks ago we'd have sold kane and replaced him with Johnson and Solomon id have laughed you out the room. If I found out we were paying 5pm for Johnson I'd checked myself into rehab.

Hope the scouts have been through here. We need something though and this seems like the only option right now.

 

[dirtyh]

Got to figure they want at least 2 as makeweights otherwise this makes little sense at that price

 

[Flobadob]

Probably not using a free website to get data on a multimillion pound transfer.

Anything he’s particularly good at still ought to show up on there though. Someone just mentioned progressive carries being a strength but he’s still 35th percentile for that across the top 5 leagues, which is less than meh really. I do think he’s a decent young player, I’d just be really interested to know what we and Brentford are looking at in particular because it’s clearly a data move if two clubs with that model are looking at him and making big bids

 

[arunspurs]

If you'd have told me 6 weeks ago we'd have sold kane and replaced him with Johnson and Solomon id have laughed you out the room. If I found out we were paying 5pm for Johnson I'd checked myself into rehab.

Hope the scouts have been through here. We need something though and this seems like the only option right now.

Only if we sign Johnson, we aren't replacing Kane. Kane replacement, ie no9 is still to be done. I think we will give Richarlison this season. If he doesnt cut it, we will spend big next summer. Hopefully we are in CL by then so we go for a much bigger target

 

[Ghost Hardware]

That’s a lot for Johnson.
Hopefully the structure of the deal didn’t suit Forest.
Hopefully £45 million gets it done.

£43 mil plus add ons on top and a sell on % was a really good offer for him IMO. Fact is if he did well he wouldn’t be at Brentford for more than 2 or 3 years tops. If they turned that down then they must be pretty adamant they want £50-55 mil.

 

[Pochemon94]

Not trying to rain on the parade at all, but when was the last time a player swap actually happened? It gets talked about as an option all the time but I feel like they rarely ever happen

 

[KILLA_SIN]

Anything he’s particularly good at still ought to show up on there though. Someone just mentioned progressive carries being a strength but he’s still 35th percentile for that across the top 5 leagues, which is less than meh really. I do think he’s a decent young player, I’d just be really interested to know what we and Brentford are looking at in particular because it’s clearly a data move if two clubs with that model are looking at him and making big bids

They have to have some really bespoke programme that has been created with way more data. Maybe it has a projection capability of seeing how players could do etc. Off-topic I remember reading HMRC spent 1B on a bespoke system from BAE Systems. A club spending a few million on a system isn't out of reach.

 

[arunspurs]

Not trying to rain on the parade at all, but when was the last time a player swap actually happened? It gets talked about as an option all the time but I feel like they rarely ever happen

Lamela & Gil 2 years back - so I wouldnt say no.
But for such deals to happen, one side will have to over pay and players should be willing to go as well.

What we overpay for Johnson could be compensated in wages. Current Johnson wage is just 30k a week. We could treble his salary and still will be less than what we paid for Sissoko.

 

[bbunc]

The thing with release clauses is that you have to pay it upfront.

Whereas a normal transfer fee would normally be spread over 3+ years.

£42m in one payment is a hell of a lot of money.

It’s also completely irrelevant as the player doesn’t want to leave Bilbao.

 

[yido_number1]

Not trying to rain on the parade at all, but when was the last time a player swap actually happened? It gets talked about as an option all the time but I feel like they rarely ever happen

Lamela gil

 

[Ghost Hardware]

You keep referring to this but it’s clear we need homegrown players and that’s why the push for Johnson

It’s interesting that both our other two supposed wide forward targets, Fati and Bakayoko, are both 20 and thus wouldn’t need to be registered. I’m sure it’s a big reason we want Tosin in defence is because he’s HG. Nico Williams is only just 21 tho so also wouldn’t need to be registered but that release clause needing to be paid in one go is very likely a big stumbling block one would think.

 

[Aleks]

Not trying to rain on the parade at all, but when was the last time a player swap actually happened? It gets talked about as an option all the time but I feel like they rarely ever happen

You can also say Maddison and winks as well

 

[chelmyid]

Not trying to rain on the parade at all, but when was the last time a player swap actually happened? It gets talked about as an option all the time but I feel like they rarely ever happen

There is an argument that winks plus money for Maddison was one - just dressed as two separate deals