Player Watch Player Watch: Brennan Johnson

[ButchCassidy]

Brentford dropped out now.

Id be very surprised if we don’t sign Johnson now

I suspect this happened a day or two ago - I don’t think we would have been telling Ali that BJ is “Ange’s top target” if we weren’t quite confident we could get him.

 

[arunspurs]

Bakayoko though had 6 assists last season - 15 G/A in all comps. As well as 4 assists in 6 matches this season in all comps.

Johnson had 10 g, 3 assists in all comps last season.
Had 19 goals, 9 assists in all comps the season before (mostly in championship)

The potential is definitely there for him as well. Just depends how you rate the Championship and performing in a near relegation side.

For starters you are comparing PL player who plays for a bad Forest side, with a flair player of a top2 club in Dutch league. Dutch league is very tough to rate. So all we can say is he has potential.

If you want me to rate his championship season vs Bakayoko season, I still pick Johnson for his 16g8a for Forest side and playing well in playoff helping in a promotion

 

[Stoof]

Quite excited for a £50m BJ if I’m honest.

 

[jpascavitz]

For starters you are comparing PL player who plays for a bad Forest side, with a flair player of a top2 club in Dutch league. Dutch league is very tough to rate. So all we can say is he has potential.

If you want me to rate his championship season vs Bakayoko season, I still pick Johnson for his 16g8a for Forest side and playing well in playoff helping in a promotion

I would too mate, I thought I tried to include that in my post that it all depends on how you rate quality of league. I would imagine the models that these clubs are investing in will try to help do that as well.

We won't fully know unless Johnson gets his chance in our side. I know I posted that he has a high shot to shots on target percentage. As an example, I could see our scouts saying, well if we increase his shots by X% because we average more posession then the side he's currently in, can he maintain that percent? I would love to see some of the reports or conversations they have internally, probably really fascinating

 

[Ghost Hardware]

This guy really knows nothing doesn’t he.

 

[Neon_Knight_]

I think the transfer decision making on Vicario and VDV was certainly within the structure, the reports were that it was the head scout who really valued Vicario I believe and VDV/Tapsoba was a toss up but VDV being left footed may have been taken into consideration.

The issue with Solomon, as somebody who participated in the concerns regarding that one was, signing him before the manager was in place. Again it was about signing players out of a structure involving the manager, thankfully they waited. So from my perspective, it wasn't the free transfer nature that was the main contention in that deal, it was the possibility of pressing forward before the manager was even chosen. The other two deals, there was some concern about the cheap option, particularly with Vicario, I think it was perfectly reasonable to have some concern, given the fanbase was more familiar with Raya but that the scouting department look to have provided a masterstroke on both those two, so I completely agree with you there. I hope that whatever facilitated those two transfers, is what is driving the Johnson deal.

I don't think there's anything wrong with being linked with players before a manager is in place, so long as we didn't sign them and then hire a manager, who may have had different vision for what was needed. As I said the structure can be Paratici and the scouts and then the manager is factored in, my specific point was, it is concerning if we are still making transfers that are not part of a structured process, the if is critical though. I say it is not unfounded because of what happened literally last season with Spence first, then Danjuma. Therefore I'd say it is reasonable to have concerns but without conviction.

Solomon was announced (11th June) by the club 5 days after Ange's appointment (6th June). While negotiations were reportedly going on with both of them simultaneously, it's very possible that Ange gave the go-ahead for the Solomon deal before it was finalised, as he was appointed before it was finalised. We all know that there won't have been radio silence between Ange and the club between the club announcing his appointment (6th June) and his official start date (1st July?). It's also very plausible that the club was set on appointing Ange in advance of this, but needed to wait for the Scottish Cup Final to get the contract signed and go public about it.

It would be inconsistent, that's why I said, whether it yields a good player or not sometimes, so I don't think that's a point for me to contend as to my knowledge, I've been consistent. I agree that Ange probably has given the nod, I personally don't believe that Johnson would be the player he wants in the sense of, if he had to pick a name in world football for the hole we need to sort, that's just based on my opinion though, there's nothing supporting that opinion though.

I wasn't suggesting that you had been inconsistent. I meant the overall SC views on those transfers (or at least my perception, as I don't read every post of every thread).

 

[Neon_Knight_]

If Brentford's offer was rejected purely due to them not being able to pay enough upfront, rather than the overall value of the deal, cashflow will be far less of a problem for us. Our new signings are presumably being paid for in instalments, while Bayern paid most of the fee for Kane upfront.

It really does seem like a lot of money though - particularly given our track record with big money signings. The fact that we could potentially sign both Veliz and Orban without spending as much as the reported fee for Johnson makes me think there are better deals to be had.

 

[The Lion]

I'm totally fine with a 50 mil pound deal for Johnson as long as Forest agrees to value Sanchez at 30 mil...

 

[SG7]

I'm totally fine with a 50 mil pound deal for Johnson as long as Forest agrees to value Sanchez at 30 mil...

Why would we give them a good player in return? Sanchez is looking sharp as our first choice CB backup.
Give them Ndombele and Dier instead. Could even throw in Reguilon for a limited time offer.

 

[yido_number1]

I'm totally fine with a 50 mil pound deal for Johnson as long as Forest agrees to value Sanchez at 30 mil...

42 surely

 

[dj_stu]

Anything he’s particularly good at still ought to show up on there though. Someone just mentioned progressive carries being a strength but he’s still 35th percentile for that across the top 5 leagues, which is less than meh really. I do think he’s a decent young player, I’d just be really interested to know what we and Brentford are looking at in particular because it’s clearly a data move if two clubs with that model are looking at him and making big bids

Forward-thinking clubs nowadays are using incredibly advanced, contextually deep, custom-built statistical models, analysing player data that we will never get to see, so it'll be very hard for us to get meaningful insight on that, I think.

And, in comparison, looking at these low-hanging stats from publicly-available websites is a bit like trying to watch a foreign-language movie with no subtitles; you'll probably infer what genre it is and you'll likely know if the cinematography is decent, but chances are that you'll have very little understanding of whether the film has a tight script that makes any meaningful sense.

Just saying that he's in x percentile in y stat on FBref will not cut it when there are probably hundreds of different factors that can affect the viability of any one given statistic.

 

[Tucker]

Forward-thinking clubs nowadays are using incredibly advanced, contextually deep, custom-built statistical models, analysing player data that we will never get to see, so it'll be very hard for us to get meaningful insight on that, I think.

And, in comparison, looking at these low-hanging stats from publicly-available websites is a bit like trying to watch a foreign-language movie with no subtitles; you'll probably infer what genre it is and you'll likely know if the cinematography is decent, but chances are that you'll have very little understanding of whether the film has a tight script that makes any meaningful sense.

Just saying that he's in x percentile in y stat on FBref will not cut it when there are probably hundreds of different factors that can affect the viability of any one given statistic.

You’re breaking the dreams of half a dozen amateur data analysts on here with hard facts like this

 

[Flobadob]

Forward-thinking clubs nowadays are using incredibly advanced, contextually deep, custom-built statistical models, analysing player data that we will never get to see, so it'll be very hard for us to get meaningful insight on that, I think.

And, in comparison, looking at these low-hanging stats from publicly-available websites is a bit like trying to watch a foreign-language movie with no subtitles; you'll probably infer what genre it is and you'll likely know if the cinematography is decent, but chances are that you'll have very little understanding of whether the film has a tight script that makes any meaningful sense.

Just saying that he's in x percentile in y stat on FBref will not cut it when there are probably hundreds of different factors that can affect the viability of any one given statistic.

Yeah no doubt. My post was more aimed towards the curiosity I have in what exactly we (and Brentford) have seen and liked in him. I guess we’ll never know and will only be able to guess once he’s signed and properly integrated into the team. Will be interesting to observe

 

[Gilzeanking]

I know YT clips are a superficial guide to a player...but Johnson's YT clips aren't the best imo.

Other thing that confuses me is that he's Welsh..how is that HG in England ?

Bukayoko on the other hand is on fire in his YT clips.

Anyway, whatever Ange says is good with me.

 

[Tucker]

Other thing that confuses me is that he's Welsh..how is that HG in England ?

He’s been at Forest his whole career aside from a spell on loan at Lincoln. Welsh clubs also count as far as HG is concerned too now, at least in the premier league. So it’s not an issue with the likes of Davies or Rodon anymore.

 

[nicdic]

What if Daniel Levy was employing the famous Eni Aluko tactic, getting Brentford to bid high, so they'd accept our lower offer.

 

[Yid-ol]

I know YT clips are a superficial guide to a player...but Johnson's YT clips aren't the best imo.

Other thing that confuses me is that he's Welsh..how is that HG in England ?

Bukayoko on the other hand is on fire in his YT clips.

Anyway, whatever Ange says is good with me.

It's not about his nationality for HG, it's where he was trained.

Eric Dier is English, but he was in Portugal as a youth, so isn't classed as home grown. So Johnson playing for Forrest means he's played in England for enough time as a youth to be homegrown.

 

[Norvern Munkey]

Forward-thinking clubs nowadays are using incredibly advanced, contextually deep, custom-built statistical models, analysing player data that we will never get to see, so it'll be very hard for us to get meaningful insight on that, I think.

And, in comparison, looking at these low-hanging stats from publicly-available websites is a bit like trying to watch a foreign-language movie with no subtitles; you'll probably infer what genre it is and you'll likely know if the cinematography is decent, but chances are that you'll have very little understanding of whether the film has a tight script that makes any meaningful sense.

Just saying that he's in x percentile in y stat on FBref will not cut it when there are probably hundreds of different factors that can affect the viability of any one given statistic.

A good mate of mine works for a fruit based computer company and upgraded utds scouting teams computers last year....he told me that the processing power and memory on each computer was on an epic scale and they basically had the facility to load multiple games onto the computer and track each player on the pitch and have real time data churning out showing such things as deterioration of sprinting speed throughout a game, speed of changing direction.... the memory and speed upgrades to each, already top.of the range computer were circa 90k a pop... so yes FBref probably doesn't give you a fraction of what all the scouting teams are dealing with.... how you analyse all that shite is a different story.

 

[Stoof]

A good mate of mine works for a fruit based computer company and upgraded utds scouting teams computers last year....he told me that the processing power and memory on each computer was on an epic scale and they basically had the facility to load multiple games onto the computer and track each player on the pitch and have real time data churning out showing such things as deterioration of sprinting speed throughout a game, speed of changing direction.... the memory and speed upgrades to each, already top.of the range computer were circa 90k a pop... so yes FBref probably doesn't give you a fraction of what all the scouting teams are dealing with.... how you analyse all that shite is a different story.

And then you can send it all to your watch to read whilst you’re having a shit.

 

[SambaSpurs]

Forward-thinking clubs nowadays are using incredibly advanced, contextually deep, custom-built statistical models, analysing player data that we will never get to see, so it'll be very hard for us to get meaningful insight on that, I think.

And, in comparison, looking at these low-hanging stats from publicly-available websites is a bit like trying to watch a foreign-language movie with no subtitles; you'll probably infer what genre it is and you'll likely know if the cinematography is decent, but chances are that you'll have very little understanding of whether the film has a tight script that makes any meaningful sense.

Just saying that he's in x percentile in y stat on FBref will not cut it when there are probably hundreds of different factors that can affect the viability of any one given statistic.

Totally agree.

Tony Bloom at Brighton and Matthew Benham at Brentford, they own Starlizard and Smartodds respectively. These companies have ridiculously advanced models that are used to predict the outcome of matches with greater accuracy than betting companies. Starlizard hires quants out of investment banks - a few people I started out with have moved there. Starlizard put huge wagers on in Asian markets for their gambling syndicate - the rich give them money to diversify their investments away from financial markets/property/art etc. Huge amounts of data will be fed into these models but I have heard easily the most important is individual player data and knowledge of which players will be playing. You can guarantee that they have successfully used this data in their recruitment at the football clubs they now own - both clubs have seen incredible rises up the leagues and generally recruit both players and managers very well.

To bring this vaguely back on topic, it is a good sign that Brentford are so interested in him.

This is an excellent article on Bloom
/Starlizard. Love that he is the only high level poker player who just does it for fun rather than to earn a living.
https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-bloom-starlizard-2597458-Feb2016/