SC's Tactical Autopsy thread

[Bus-Conductor]

@sloth

Obviously it's never as straightforward as purely "433" will always outplay "4231". It depends on the other factors too, the individuals involved, the style and approach etc but I was talking specifically about Liverpool and Spurs and what we already know about them (and referenced what we saw last year).

There is no rule that says it has to be the same. But Liverpool are now into their 3rd season of Rodgers and his methods. I watched them against ManC and the pressed extremely well and much more cohesively than we are doing in our first few weeks of Pochettino's guidance. They have good individuals within that system that have now been playing together for a year or two. We have a newish bunch who haven't played much football together learning a new system.

Liverpool will almost certainly play 3 dedicated CM types (my guess is 3 from Henderson, Gerrard, Allen, Can, Lucas). I very much doubt we will. I think we will play Capoue and Bentaleb and one/more of our attacking 3 midfielders will be tasked with dropping in and helping. But in terms of winning the battle for control of the midfield and the football, unless we are fucking disciplined about it and we work cohesively it won't come out on top. And at this stage, knowing what we know, I don't think we will.

I hope I am wrong obviously.


@Spurs_Bear

I don't really get your question ?

ManC only ended up having 53% of the ball, despite Liverpool ending the game with 10 men, they probably average something like 60% at home normally. (This is a guess based on the fact that they were the EPL\s highest averaging possession team with a home/away average of about 57 or 58% I believe)

Up until the late sending off I would have guessed the possession was pretty even. That was because Liverpool's pressing never allowed ManC to build possession as they normally do at home.

ManC cutting them open - sometimes against the run of play - had nothing to do with the efficacy or competence of Liverpool's pressing, ManC are just an exceedingly talented attacking football team who found a way to create chances in a football game. I think if Liverpool's defensive play (inc Pressing) wasn't as good as it was City would have almost certainly created more. They usually do and were the EPL's highest scoring home team I believe last year.

 

[sloth]

It will be very interesting to see what Pochettino does to redress the 433 v 4231. Last season, neither AVB nor Sherwood managed to figure out this simple mathematic equation very well.

I would love to see Pochettino surprise everyone and switch to an orthodox 433, I think it could be a very different game. If we did I don't actually think their midfield would be better, certainly not by much. If not, like you, I have my fears, especially as Liverpool's collective pressing looked so much better for so much longer of their game against (quality) ManC than ours did against (very shit) QPR.

Can you expand on this? Why do you think it's important to match up 433 against stronger sides, but not the reverse ie 433 doesn't need to match up 4231? Also don't you think that the formation gives a rudimentary idea of the principles, but that, for example, a Poch style 4231 will be different in personnel and application than say a TS style one? In other words, what specifically worries you about the way Poch might try to tackle Rogers' Liverpool?

Perhaps we should take this to the TA thread…

Guessing...but he's probably worried that they'll press us better collectively and probably out number us in midfield.

Here are three Liverpool midfields/attacks:

Liverpool 0 1 Southampton

Gerrard Leiva
Henderson Aspas Moses

Liverpool 2 1 Southampton

Gerrard Leiva
Henderson Coutinho Sterling

City 3 1 Liverpool

Henderson Gerrard Allen
Sterling Coutinho

The difference between the third formation which was nominally a 433 and the ther other two which were 4231 is subtle and cannot be considered critical imo. If you asked which was most attacking you'd probably say the 433, if you asked which would be least effective at winning the midfield battle you'd probably also have said the 433, similarly you'd have imagined the 433 would provide the least effective screen for the defence.

For me, anyway, talking about formations in this way is a very crude method of getting an idea across. For example, TS went 4231 away to Liverpool last season but his midfield and attack looked like this:

Liverpool 4 0 Spurs

Bentaleb Gylfi
Lennon Chadli Eriksen

Without an excellent player and a specialist in the role like Capoue at the base of the midfield the 4231 is a massively different proposition.

But also the ways in which the players are taught to move when not in possession, the press and its triggers, the high-line (or not), how they move off the ball in possession, lots of lateral movement from the AM 3, clever movement from the striker, interchanging of position, vertical passing etc etc all is massively different under one manager's 4231, than under another's.

So anyway, what I'm interested is the detail behind the 433 suggestion from @Bus-Conductor what do you mean when you say you'd like us to go that way? Which players? How would it be significantly different? And why would it be better against Liverpool?

 

[Spurs_Bear]

I don't really get your question ?

ManC only ended up having 53% of the ball, despite Liverpool ending the game with 10 men, they probably average something like 60% at home normally. (This is a guess based on the fact that they were the EPL\s highest averaging possession team with a home/away average of about 57 or 58% I believe)

Up until the late sending off I would have guessed the possession was pretty even. That was because Liverpool's pressing never allowed ManC to build possession as they normally do at home.

ManC cutting them open - sometimes against the run of play - had nothing to do with the efficacy or competence of Liverpool's pressing, ManC are just an exceedingly talented attacking football team who found a way to create chances in a football game. I think if Liverpool's defensive play (inc Pressing) wasn't as good as it was City would have almost certainly created more. They usually do and were the EPL's highest scoring home team I believe last year.

Sending off? 10 men? Do you mean Johnson going off injured with 5 mins left?

My question was how do you judge who's collective pressing was better? Liverpool had more opportunity to press because City had more of the ball, you cant expect our 'collective pressing' to be as noticeable when the opposition has only 35-40% of it can you?

Liverpool play a version of a 433 (although it's difference to a 4231 is minimal) that means they have 3 'attackers' higher up the pitch than we do with our focal '1'. It's not a better collective pressing it's a different system. I don't think you credit teams enough that play against 'possession at all costs sides', in the same way you wouldn't give credit to Wenger for letting us fuck around with the ball and create zip last year early doors, City clearly had a plan of moving ball from back to front quickly when they could, you call it 'against the run of play', I call it a tactic.

 

[Bus-Conductor]

Sending off? 10 men? Do you mean Johnson going off injured with 5 mins left?

My question was how do you judge who's collective pressing was better? Liverpool had more opportunity to press because City had more of the ball, you cant expect our 'collective pressing' to be as noticeable when the opposition has only 35-40% of it can you?

Liverpool play a version of a 433 (although it's difference to a 4231 is minimal) that means they have 3 'attackers' higher up the pitch than we do with our focal '1'. It's not a better collective pressing it's a different system. I don't think you credit teams enough that play against 'possession at all costs sides', in the same way you wouldn't give credit to Wenger for letting us fuck around with the ball and create zip last year early doors, City clearly had a plan of moving ball from back to front quickly when they could, you call it 'against the run of play', I call it a tactic.

On Wenger, he said himself, post match, he was at a loss to explain why his team allowed us to have so much much of the ball. Wenger had spent nearly 20 years beating us by dominating the ball in midfield. Why an earth would he deliberately reverse that strategy for us so early in the season.

I think what we saw was no more Song or Diaby, no discipline, no one to hunt and gather like Song or Diaby (or Viera, Gilberto etc etc) they payed Wilshire and Ramsey as a CM2 (if I remember correctly) and we had Capoue and Sandro and that was why we won control of the ball - we also now had a coach teaching players to retain possession - so we kept the ball - the difference in that game was what they had ahead of the two compared to us. We were wasteful and careless (due to dim fuckers and newbies) so many times that we didn't craft anything (a concurrent feature of our football) they had players like Cazorla and Rosicky who are much more adept and made the most of less ball.

You have no more idea what City intended to do than I do. What I believe from watching them is that they were the most possession dominant team in England last year. I don't believe their plan was to allow Liverpool to have so much of the ball and were lucky not to be behind in that game before they scored. Liverpool created as many good situations as City. Often by pressing City off the ball.

There is a difference in how Liverpool pressed against City than how we did against both West Ham (lets include West ham because QPR were so facile it's hard to draw good conclusions) and QPR.

Liverpool's is clearly more a cohesive, collective press with three, four or five players all acting in unison. I didn't see (hardly) any sign of this against West Ham or QPR, certainly not after the first 15-20 minutes. I saw individual players like Lamela continually trying to win the ball high up, but others like Adebayor and Eriksen were far more casual about it a lot of the time and there didn't seem to be a collective methodology to it. I didn't see us "swarm" 4/5/6 players like Liverpool were doing onto City higher up.

I don't expect this, frankly I'd be dubious if I thought I was seeing an overnight miracle. I am just calling it as I am seeing it now.

 

[Spurs_Bear]

@Bus-Conductor I think the idea of 4/5/6 players 'swarming' the opposition is a poor example of a collective press, it's pressing for pressing sake, which is fine when you win the ball, but rogers you arse and trousers when you don't.

I just find it funny that you tell me what you think (know) happened in the City game, but tell me I cant possibly be right with what happened in the Arse/Spurs game from earlier on in the season?

Remember when Wenger also said they had no signings lined up the day before they dropped 40bar on Ozil? Yeah. Exactly.

And saying Liverpool had as many good 'situations' as City, is absurd. What defines a good situation? They didn't carve out anything more than City did that would be deemed clear cut, and despite a good 35-40 mins, were then held more than comfortably at arms length (potentially knackered after the endless pressing) for the majority of the second half.

 

[Bus-Conductor]

Here are three Liverpool midfields/attacks:

Liverpool 0 1 Southampton

Gerrard Leiva
Henderson Aspas Moses

Liverpool 2 1 Southampton

Gerrard Leiva
Henderson Coutinho Sterling

City 3 1 Liverpool

Henderson Gerrard Allen
Sterling Coutinho

The difference between the third formation which was nominally a 433 and the ther other two which were 4231 is subtle and cannot be considered critical imo. If you asked which was most attacking you'd probably say the 433, if you asked which would be least effective at winning the midfield battle you'd probably also have said the 433, similarly you'd have imagined the 433 would provide the least effective screen for the defence.

For me, anyway, talking about formations in this way is a very crude method of getting an idea across. For example, TS went 4231 away to Liverpool last season but his midfield and attack looked like this:

Liverpool 4 0 Spurs

Bentaleb Gylfi
Lennon Chadli Eriksen

Without an excellent player and a specialist in the role like Capoue at the base of the midfield the 4231 is a massively different proposition.

But also the ways in which the players are taught to move when not in possession, the press and its triggers, the high-line (or not), how they move off the ball in possession, lots of lateral movement from the AM 3, clever movement from the striker, interchanging of position, vertical passing etc etc all is massively different under one manager's 4231, than under another's.

So anyway, what I'm interested is the detail behind the 433 suggestion from @Bus-Conductor what do you mean when you say you'd like us to go that way? Which players? How would it be significantly different? And why would it be better against Liverpool?

See my first reply to you above for some of the answers re personnel influence and dynamics etc. This leads to the answer to your question at the end of your post above.

For this particular game I would like us to match up because I feel it would give us the best possible chance of competing for control of the midfield. As I explained above I think if both teams go with their expected line ups and tactical application I think Liverpool will control the game (the ball and territory) and this will render our chance of victory more dependent on luck or opportunism.

I believe however, that in this case, if we were to match them formation wise, and could work harder off the ball than we have (or have had to - QPR) so far, we would be better equipped to match or even better them.

We have players very suited to a 433; that in a 433 provide a good variation and balance of skills. Capoue would sit centrally, provide insurance and protection but is no compromise when it comes to passing and moving. Bentaleb is the water carrier, the glue, also can tackle but also sees and recycles lots of the ball. Maybe Paulinho as the more forward licensed of the three, but he is actually more likely to score than any of Liverpool's 3 CM's I think.

It's a nuanced reversal. With our 4231 Eriksen would be detailed to drop in when we don't have the ball. With our 433 Paulinho is detailed to bomb on when we do. But with the 433 we stand more chance of having the ball.

I would go:

Paulinho Capoue bentaleb

Lamela Adebayor Eriksen


You are sacrificing an attacking midfielder in Chadli, but if you are getting starved of the ball because you aren't winning the midfield battle, he's likely to peripheral figure and be less effective as an attacking force anyway (IMO). And what you gain is a player arriving from a deeper position which is often harder to counter.

Ideally you want good attacking full backs in either formation and that's a bit of a moot point for us.


But my fear is we come out all bright, have a lively first 15 minutes, pretty quickly Liverpool's 3 man CM and more collective pressing gets the better of our 2 man CM and weaker pressing/organisation. They maybe get a goal or two then midway into the second half they shell a bit and we have a 20 minute hurrah ?

Of course it will be nothing like that, but that's how it possibly goes in my head based on what I've seen so far.

 

[Bus-Conductor]

@Bus-Conductor I think the idea of 4/5/6 players 'swarming' the opposition is a poor example of a collective press, it's pressing for pressing sake, which is fine when you win the ball, but rogers you arse and trousers when you don't.

I just find it funny that you tell me what you think (know) happened in the City game, but tell me I cant possibly be right with what happened in the Arse/Spurs game from earlier on in the season?

Remember when Wenger also said they had no signings lined up the day before they dropped 40bar on Ozil? Yeah. Exactly.

And saying Liverpool had as many good 'situations' as City, is absurd. What defines a good situation? They didn't carve out anything more than City did that would be deemed clear cut, and despite a good 35-40 mins, were then held more than comfortably at arms length (potentially knackered after the endless pressing) for the majority of the second half.

We aspire to be being held comfortably at arms length by ManC.

And keeping transfer aspirations a secret is nothing like giving a post analysis of your team's performance. And you know it. You Silly bugger.

 

[Spurs_Bear]

We aspire to be being held comfortably at arms length by ManC.

And keeping transfer aspirations a secret is nothing like giving a post analysis of your team's performance. And you know it. You Silly bugger.

Really? It's quite Wengerish to do that, he's not one for coming out and lapping up the plaudits for a good team performance, again this is old hat but I think it just stems from your overrating of the previous honcho.

With Gerrard in their midfield I don't see us being overrun as badly as you do, they still have some average ball players in the midfield, Henderson still, is not a great player. And I think your approach to the game is too negative, it's very AVB, we need to match up the midfield battle to win the ball back, fuck knows what we do with when we've got it though! I'd take 45% of the ball and a 2-1 win over a 0-0 and 60%. And I think this approach could be the best way to play Liverpool.

For me, Liverpool's defence is garbage, Glen Johnson is getting booed by his own fans (massive when you consider it's Liverpool fans who don't do that sort of thing), Lovren is massively over priced and over rated, and Moreno might be quick and agile going forward, but I would be clucking to go up against him if I was Lamela or even Lennon. I don't really care for 60% possession, I want us to attack them as quickly and directly as we can.

Rodgers also has to be a bit careful, they were poor in the first game against Soton and now have a loss to their name, if he comes out all guns blazing and gets turned over, it wont look good for him and he'll get pelters from a few (because that's the way it goes). He's also talking about involving Balotelli? That will affect the 'collective press', and will help us more than it will help them in my opinion.

 

[Blake Griffin]

i'm not a massive fan of 4231 as all too often the 2 gets clogged up with ball winners first, footballers 2nd. everyone's too scared to replace one of them for a player with a bit more game out of fear of leaving the backline marginally more exposed. you lose rhythm and the three behind the striker find it hard to impact the game.

 

[Bus-Conductor]

Really? It's quite Wengerish to do that, he's not one for coming out and lapping up the plaudits for a good team performance, again this is old hat but I think it just stems from your overrating of the previous honcho.

With Gerrard in their midfield I don't see us being overrun as badly as you do, they still have some average ball players in the midfield, Henderson still, is not a great player. And I think your approach to the game is too negative, it's very AVB, we need to match up the midfield battle to win the ball back, fuck knows what we do with when we've got it though! I'd take 45% of the ball and a 2-1 win over a 0-0 and 60%. And I think this approach could be the best way to play Liverpool.

For me, Liverpool's defence is garbage, Glen Johnson is getting booed by his own fans (massive when you consider it's Liverpool fans who don't do that sort of thing), Lovren is massively over priced and over rated, and Moreno might be quick and agile going forward, but I would be clucking to go up against him if I was Lamela or even Lennon. I don't really care for 60% possession, I want us to attack them as quickly and directly as we can.

Rodgers also has to be a bit careful, they were poor in the first game against Soton and now have a loss to their name, if he comes out all guns blazing and gets turned over, it wont look good for him and he'll get pelters from a few (because that's the way it goes). He's also talking about involving Balotelli? That will affect the 'collective press', and will help us more than it will help them in my opinion.

It's not about taking "x" percentage of the ball and winning, no-one plans to have "x" percentage and everyone wants to win. It's about doing what you think is more likely to effect a best outcome, maximising your resources.

History (certainly recent) tells us the team that controls the ball is more likely to win. I'm just giving my take on how we might achieve and apply that.

 

[Spurs_Bear]

It's not about taking "x" percentage of the ball and winning, no-one plans to have "x" percentage and everyone wants to win. It's about doing what you think is more likely to effect a best outcome, maximising your resources.

History (certainly recent) tells us the team that controls the ball is more likely to win. I'm just giving my take on how we might achieve and apply that.

But as we've been back and forward on many times before, 'controlling the ball' does not equal a higher percentage of possession, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

A team that is toothless up front (pardon the pun) due to the loss of their superstar, commits more men forward when they have the ball, when ball is lost, we have a chance to attack their ropey defence. To me, worrying about what we are doing with the ball when we get it is far important than what the opposition might or might not do with it, especially if we are at home and trying to win the game. You said yourself that Liverpool had lots of situations, but they didn't get to the end product, which is their weakness.

 

[carpediem1906]

BC.. enjoyed reading your tactical analysis... esp this upcoming game against liverpool...

i do think the same 4-2-3-1 (same personnel as qpr) will work against liverpool and here's why...

liverpool is known to press aggressively yes, and they have fast attacking players who can also hurt us on the counter attack, or worse (more likely) us being casual and losing the ball around the middle of the park.. expecting sterling coutinho and sturridge to do so.

that said, the reverse is true... and i think the key to this match is in the first 20 mins... and where our 4 attacking players do not allow gerrard time to tuck in to receive the ball between 2 splitting centre backs. when he does this, he usually sprays the ball to the middle (henderson) or either full back who are at half way point or recycles the ball by giving it to either centre back or the other cm (lucas) and receiving it back... this is where our 4 + capoue + high line = centre backs (verts / kab) being able to read and intercept longer balls if gerrard is pressured... and bentaleb being near them when they do so to pick up the second ball.

there is a similarity to our attacking styles - with ball played into stride when moving the ball forward and speedy players exploiting space by running aggressively with the ball and drawing players to them, and then releasing it to other players who are making off the ball sprints.

in this respect, i suspect rodgers will instruct them to run at kab or rose, as they are the weaker 2 of the 4. nevertheless we have capoue and bentaleb who will be given specific instructions to help them 2 out. turning it over, when our 4 runs at them, their defenders are not that adept imo in dealing with such play and our advantage is when our 4 take on their 5 (2 cb, 2 cm, 1 r/l b), only henderson has the pace to recover, whereas gerrard and lucas will probably be prone to fouling us. which plays in our next advantage - set pieces near the box.

we will be silly to give away fouls on either flanks tho, cos we know gerrard can deliver them pin point. this is where bentaleb and rose will have to be very alert not to foul sterling... and i think the better prevention is to stop the ball from getting there in the first place.

also if rose bombs down the flank, i fully expect to see verts shift left, dier to tuck in to back kab. vice versa kab to shift right if dier overlaps.

chadli should play because he is the one who will go into the box to support ade and keep their 2 centre backs occupied and where we can mix the balls into the box - crosses, or low and hard, or squared to just outside the box.

i wont be surprised to see capoue do many long diagonal balls to space, if and when we recover possession when one of their full backs are committed forwards. *this is also why MP wants MS imo... he has that bit of scholesy in him.

i rem very clearly last season's match between liverpool and city or chelsea where the half time analysis showed the full pitch perspective and showed that liverpool will tend to swamp and therefore restrict play to only that side of the pitch and often, if an aware player wins possession, they can easily find a team mate completely unmarked in their own half, near the opposite flank, around the half way line. this is again where our off the ball running of the front 4 + right or left back with a composed accurate centre mid will capitalize time and time again. either cm or verts.

that said, my worry is... bentaleb, is his haste to play the good ball to an open player, mispassing and being intercepted by any of the liverpool 3 (or when our players try to run with the ball into space a little too hastily and miscontrols the ball)... this then would be worrying cos we would have 5 (3+1+ right or left back) ahead of the ball and leaving us exposed at the back. this happened quite a few times in the first half against qpr.

lastly, our 48 passes goal and all players touching the ball gives me confidence that they can pass and move away from the pressuring attackers.. definitely much more off the ball running this MP team.

 

[carpediem1906]

first 20 mins because whoever leads will win in my opinion, with both teams very strong on the counter and not adept at breaking down teams that park the bus and plays long.

 

[only1waddle]

i'm not a massive fan of 4231 as all too often the 2 gets clogged up with ball winners first, footballers 2nd. everyone's too scared to replace one of them for a player with a bit more game out of fear of leaving the backline marginally more exposed. you lose rhythm and the three behind the striker find it hard to impact the game.

That's why we need to pick players for the 2 carefully, ball winners that can shift the ball quickly and intelligently, more often than not they cost a fortune but we seem to have picked up a gem in Capoue and not so much in Paulinho, i guess it's a fine line for a Europa level club.

 

[Bus-Conductor]

But as we've been back and forward on many times before, 'controlling the ball' does not equal a higher percentage of possession, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

A team that is toothless up front (pardon the pun) due to the loss of their superstar, commits more men forward when they have the ball, when ball is lost, we have a chance to attack their ropey defence. To me, worrying about what we are doing with the ball when we get it is far important than what the opposition might or might not do with it, especially if we are at home and trying to win the game. You said yourself that Liverpool had lots of situations, but they didn't get to the end product, which is their weakness.

Surely a good manager/coach worries about both ?

 

[Bus-Conductor]

@Spurs_Bear

Great example of how you can still press weaker, deeper sitting opposition in a collectively cohesive way tonight. Just because a team is shit doesn't mean you don't press them high up, in fact it's almost more important you do as they are less likely to punish you for it.

 

[Spurs_Bear]

Surely a good manager/coach worries about both ?

You're just being obtuse now.

 

[Spurs_Bear]

@Spurs_Bear

Great example of how you can still press weaker, deeper sitting opposition in a collectively cohesive way tonight. Just because a team is shit doesn't mean you don't press them high up, in fact it's almost more important you do as they are less likely to punish you for it.

Not even sure what this means? You think our pressing was as good or not as good collectively last night?

 

[yiddo23]

I think we are getting a little carried away with defining formations. As a player of MOPO stated, he rarely talks about them, its all about shapes and spaces, which is a constantly moving event. A 4231 can smash a 433 and vice versa, same goes for any "formation"

 

[Spursidol]

That's why we need to pick players for the 2 carefully, ball winners that can shift the ball quickly and intelligently, more often than not they cost a fortune but we seem to have picked up a gem in Capoue and not so much in Paulinho, i guess it's a fine line for a Europa level club.

agree with that

Last night against Limassol we were very much slower in moving the ball forward as we had no players good at passing at CM, but it didn't really matter to the result as we simply had better players well drilled to give us the win. Against a better side and we would have probably struggled. If we get MS and Mason stays fit we have enoughpassing players, but without MS I think we will reproduce AVB slow pomnderous play - because that's the type of player we are using.

Hope I'm wrong - or maybeto avoid the risk hope we get MS to get another passer in cm