The 2006/07 season Rolling Form Guide

Discussion in 'Columns' started by BoringOldFan, May 19, 2007.

  • by BoringOldFan, May 19, 2007 at 11:08 AM
  • BoringOldFan

    BoringOldFan It's better to burn out than to fade away...

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    "Tottenham's form needs to be more like Peru"

    What Is It?

    The Rolling Form Guide (RFG) looks at the number of points gained in each 6-game sequence.

    For more explanation, take a look at the previous one here.

    [​IMG]

    What Do The Levels Mean?

    On the left hand side you can see the number of points gained in any six-game run. These actually equate to something. For example, the 14-point level means that if your season average is up here, you are getting 2.33 points per game. Over a season, that would give you 89 points and you are challenging for the title.

    At the other end, if your average is 6 points, that's a point a game and only 38 for the season, so you are in a relegation battle.

    Amazingly, Tottenham visited levels worse than that. Below relegation there is a level at which clearly Points Are Not Tottenham's Strength (PANTS). But being Spurs, on one occasion we even bypassed that and descended to one lower, which can only be described as Totally Pants.

    8 points per 6 games will leave you mid-table on 50, a 10-points average will give you 63 points which should mean UEFA Cup qualification and a 12-point average would see you challenging for the Champions League.

    What Does It Tell Us?

    Looking at the completed RFG for this season one thing stands out: it looks like a bastard mountain range. The only word to describe our form would be "inconsistent", when we can go from being totally pants to title-winning form in the space of five games.

    You can see that we spent nearly half the season (18 games) in sub-UEFA Cup qualifying form, and offset it with a couple of good runs. We were showing relegation form or worse for 7 games - that's nearly a fifth of the season. But then again we spent the same number of games showing Champions League form or better. As I say - inconsistent.

    Obviously some of it depends on the sequence of fixtures, but you wouldn't expect to play more than two top four teams in any 6-game run.

    Our season low point was the LLDLDL sequence leading up to our visit to Everton on February 21, having garnered a fizzy pop-tastic 2 points in the previous six games. But JJ's last-minute winner was a turning point and we set off on a five-game winning streak that gave us a fleeting glimpse of title-winning form.

    The drop-off following the Chelsea defeat was down to two of the five consecutive wins being replaced by the Wigan and Goon draws. But we finished on a sequence of WDWWDD, giving us a CL-achieving form of 12 points to open our account next season.

    Sorry Mr Jol – I disagree!

    On the official site, BMJ made this assessment of our season:

    "We had a bad start, but it lasted just six games in which we played Manchester United and Liverpool away. We lost by a single goal at Anfield and probably should have scored before they netted at the other end. Bolton, of course, was also a disappointment on the opening day."

    We didn’t get our first away win until Manchester City in December, and the guide reflects this contrast in home and away form very well. It was not just a “bad start” – our form was up and down for most of the season.

    What About The Future?

    Unlike even Lawro, the RFG has no predictive qualities. All it can do is look back at the kind of form the team has been showing, and at any one time tell you what that form will bring you at the end of the season if it's maintained.

    For next season it would be good to see something that looked less like the Himalayas and more like Holland. Well maybe not Holland, as that is flat but at a low level. So if our form is a bit up and down, can it at least be at a higher level? Something like the The Altiplano of the southern Peruvian Andes maybe?

    To be at a Champions League level, Tottenham will need to have a consistent set of sequences with a combination of wins and draws to average that magic 12-point level. A tall order, especially with our terrible record against the top four. So we'll have to offset any defeats in those games with another win.

    Finally, if the shape of the graph looks familiar, take a look at the 'rollercoaster' image in Geez's signature.

    [​IMG]

    Notice anything? ;-)
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Columns' started by BoringOldFan, May 19, 2007.

  1. michaelden
    Games 22 to 27 were pretty costly.


    Have I read that right?
  2. michaelden
    2 to 9 weren't great either
  3. michaelden
    So that is a slow start by Spurs and a slump around Christmas.

    Sounds right to me.
  4. BoringOldFan
    Yup you are reading it right. The sequence leading up to the Everton away game was Liverpool (H - 0pts), Portsmouth (A -1), Newcastle United (H -0), Fulham (A - 1), Manchester United (H - 0) and Sheffield United (A -0).

    Two points in six games from a possible 18 Eek .
  5. michaelden
    It should've looked like this

    Liverpool H - 0 pts
    Portsmouth A - 1 pt
    Newcastle H - 3 pts
    Fulham A - 3 pts
    ManU H - 0 pts
    Sheff A - 3 pts

    10 points instead of 2. Those would've made the world of difference! We would've been tie with Livers and Arse on 68 pts.
  6. dvdhopeful
    Really interesting BOF. Consistancy has been a huge problem for Spurs for a longtime, but with the squad we have, I think a more consistant Spurs could be just around the corner.

    What the graph does show is that we are capable at least!
  7. gregga
    Great effort mate - that graph makes for interesting reading.

    On a side track - Jol's quote in there confuses me - in the universe I live in we lost 3-0 at anfield. Or am I just going mad?
  8. BoringOldFan
    That's a great spot! I cut & pasted that into my word doc when it was first posted. Now on the official site it says this:

    Someone must have told them! :wink:
  9. Tickers
    Very interesting stuff.

    Forgive me for being dim - but how does our score drop on the final day? Given that we won the game, surely the worst our six-game total could do is stay the same if that win replaced another win?
  10. gajg102
    Would be interesting to see a HOME games RFG and an AWAY games RFG ... don't know if this is possible?
  11. BoringOldFan
    The form shows the previous six results for the upcoming game. So going into the final game against Boro our record was DWWDDL (most recent result first).

    So in effect the draw in the previous game against Blackburn replaced the win six games earlier over Reading. Hence the decline from 11 points to 9 as we went into the final game.
  12. Tickers
    Aah. I get it. Looking at the mark showing two points at Everton away should have been my clue. Cheers.
  13. will8587
    If you eliminate Aug/September and January/early February from our schedule, we've got to be top 2 or 3 in the league.
  14. mdharris
    Its true, but we can just eliminate 8-10 games, thats a fourth of the Premiership season.
  15. ShelfSide18
    Fact is, we finished 5th. I'm sure every team below us looks exactly the same. People go on about consistency but the fact is only 2 teams are really consistent in terms of winning.
  16. michaelden
    It's not just winning it's getting a draw instead of losing.

    I think Spurs might be a little less attractive to watch next season as we go for more clean sheets
  17. Ravabelly
    fantastic post - I love this sort of stuff. I generally look for an average of two points a game, wich would guarrantee a decent finish. GOOD WORK!
  18. camaj
    Yes, our results before Everton (a) were poor but we did play Liverpool at home (Keane, King and Berba injured?) as well as Newcastle (jammy gits) and ManU (Cheating gits)

    One thing that bothers me is we did very well Everton onwards but such a system doesn't reflect this well. You can loose 6 games but win 6 but until that last game you're still hamstrung by the last game of the losing sequence.

    The fact is most teams would have a similar graph. Arsenal won 5 games and then only won a game in 6. At one stage they lost 4 in a row, something even we avoided! Liverpool also won 5 on the bounce but lost points all over the place

    I believe my analysis is fairer and as soon as someone approves it you can all judge for yourselves

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