The last 38 Games thread...

[Danny1]

its our goals scored that needs improving

Or a combo of both! To be fair if we had only conceded 31 goals then Id be happy. 1-0 wins all the way to the top

 

[vegassd]

That's a valid point, but one thing it may slowly reveal is the difference in quality between this year and last, we may also see things like teams which drop-off or push on after January, perhaps due to activity or lack thereof in that window.

Yeah perhaps. I wasn't slagging it off btw - just wondering where the validity lies.

I think that to my mind the uncertainty of future fixtures is more valid than the certain of an unfair set of previous fixtures. Man U. have faced three of the harder fixtures already this season which is written into the rolling snapshot but in reality means they now have an easier (33 game!) run-in than the rest of us in the season that matters.

I suppose something it does show already is the difference in relative starts for us and Chelsea. We have started better than last year, they have been worse, and that's reflected in the table.

Maybe it just bugs me that in this snapshot model Arsenal get to ride that 26-from-30 run all the way until March! Once we pass the mark of the NLD last season we will hopefully jump ahead of them in the snapshot and GDs will become a bit prettier.

Early days yet, but it does look like City and Arsenal are banking on the "we'll score one more than you" approach whereas ourselves, Chelsea and Liverpool are trying the "squeaky bum" philosophy. If United do get dragged back into the pack by December and nobody else goes on a tear it could be very interesting for the title.

 

[chinaman]

its our goals scored that needs improving

It will definitely improve. Even if we score the same number of goals, we'll concede much less than before.

 

[camaj]

So you're swapping the first 5 games of last season for the first 5 games of this season? If we continue our current run of form, we'll be looking great by game 12, we'd have 88pts on your table. I don't think Arsenal had a great start last season so the same applies to them.

While there are variables, I think people overstate their importance too much. If we do end up in the high 80's it'll be a good sign no matter what caveats.

 

[sloth]

Game-week 6

Current position / Highest position / Lowest position / Number of weeks in Top four* / up down

Utd - 1st / 1st / 1st / 2 weeks / -
Arse - 2nd / 2nd / 3rd / 2 weeks / ^
City - 3rd / 2nd / 3rd / 2 weeks / v
Spurs - 4th / 4th / 4th / 2 weeks / -
Chelsea - 5th / 5th / 5th / 0 weeks / -
Liverpool - 6th / 6th / 6th / 0 weeks / -
Everton - 7th / 7th / 7th / 0 weeks / -

Looking at the above Arse are the only upwardly mobile club this week, over-taking City who drop a place and 3 points.

Our own 38 match form is now almost as good as City's, which is real testament to how far the club has come in the last few years.

Liverpool are also improving fast and their points total of 69 would usually see them in the top 4, however the strength in depth at the top means they can't even get into the top five.

Despite a decent away result to us Chelsea's form is patchy and this is the second week they've missed out on a CL berth.

Finally there's trouble at the top as Arsenal close on Utd, surprisingly however, despite Utd's loss at the weekend, they maintain their 84 pts 38 week total from last time, this is because they lost at home at precisely the same point last season, can anyone remember who they lost to then?

* This experiment began with week five, therefore the number of weeks in the top four stems from then.

 

[crokey]

Brilliant thread mate, very interesting. Shows how close the league is now. We are 5 points off 2nd but also 5 points off 6th.

 

[OmarsComing]

Finally there's trouble at the top as Arsenal close on Utd, surprisingly however, despite Utd's loss at the weekend, they maintain their 84 pts 38 week total from last time, this is because they lost at home at precisely the same point last season, can anyway remember who they lost to then?

 

[aliyid]

Think it's an interesting view and one that is probably more valid than looking at where we were after the same number of games last season (less exposed to one off clashes against the top sides).

One of the things I keep updated each season on my work comp (yes, I work in research so love stats) is a view of how we did in previous years but matching against the same fixtures (think somebody on here gave me the idea)

We're currently 5 points ahead of last season after getting wins against Norwich & Palace (subbed in for QPR) where we got draws last year and a draw against Chel$ki where we lost last year (not sure if the image below will show or not

 

[ExpatFan]

I think averaging 2 points a game over the equivalent of a whole season shows just how far we've come in a few years. Impressive.

 

[talkshowhost86]

I reckon we'll somehow remain in the top 4 of this table all season but actually finish 5th. Yes it's not possible but this is Spurs we're talking about!

 

[mw828]

Think it's an interesting view and one that is probably more valid than looking at where we were after the same number of games last season (less exposed to one off clashes against the top sides).

One of the things I keep updated each season on my work comp (yes, I work in research so love stats) is a view of how we did in previous years but matching against the same fixtures (think somebody on here gave me the idea)

We're currently 5 points ahead of last season after getting wins against Norwich & Palace (subbed in for QPR) where we got draws last year and a draw against Chel$ki where we lost last year (not sure if the image below will show or not

That's a great graph to follow. Thanks for that.

 

[sloth]

Game-week 7

Current position / Highest position / Lowest position / Number of weeks in Top four* / up down

Utd - 1st / 1st / 1st / 3 weeks / -
Arse - 2nd / 2nd / 3rd / 3 weeks / -
City - 3rd / 2nd / 3rd / 3 weeks / -
Liverpool - 4th / 4th / 6th / 1 weeks / ^
Spurs - 5th / 4th / 5th / 2 weeks / v
Chelsea - 6th / 5th / 6th / 0 weeks / v
Everton - 7th / 7th / 7th / 0 weeks / -

I was in mourning after our loss to West Ham so didn't so this then, however this is the table as it would have looked just after we lost to them.

Talking points are Liverpool leap-frogging both Chelsea and ourselves (on goal difference) to take that hotly contested 4th spot.

It means that for the first time the top six clubs all have 70 points or more.

It's worth noting that Chelsea still can't get into the top four and it's maybe a bit surprising they remain considered one of the favourites for the title over teams which have performed better than them for a considerable time now.


Game-week 8

Current position / Highest position / Lowest position / Number of weeks in Top four* / up down

Utd - 1st / 1st / 1st / 4 weeks / -
Arse - 2nd / 2nd / 3rd / 4 weeks / -
City - 3rd / 2nd / 3rd / 4 weeks / -
Spurs - 4th / 4th / 5th / 3 weeks / ^
Chelsea - 5th / 5th / 6th / 0 weeks / ^
Liverpool - 6th / 4th / 6th / 1 weeks / v
Everton - 7th / 7th / 7th / 0 weeks / -

So after Liverpool's meteoric rise last week, they're back down to earth with a bump this, one draw sees them drop two places below both Chelsea and us. Meanwhile we're back on track firmly ensconced in 4th with a 4 point gap over 5th and closing in on City who now only just cling onto third by two points.

At the top there's a real tussle between Arsenal and Utd, with Arsenal hauling them in with each week that passes, what money on Arsenal being our snap-shot league champions next week?


* This experiment began with week five, therefore the number of weeks in the top four stems from then.

 

[Spurs 1961]

Our goals for remains weak in comparison with our main rivals. Improve this slightly and who knows where we could be

 

[nicdic]

Our goals for remains weak in comparison with our main rivals. Improve this slightly and who knows where we could be

I think Liverpool in the table above would be exactly the evidence above to show that that's not necessarily true.

 

[sloth]

I think Liverpool in the table above would be exactly the evidence above to show that that's not necessarily true.

No rule is an absolute predictor, for example a table of shots and shots on target is usually a fairly good predictor of teams which top league tables, however there can be outliers which buck the trend. In this case Liverpool's GD compared to points appears to be something of an outlier, as our's could also be said to be, I assume this is because they scored goals in gluts last year, and often when they won they won big, but when they lost they lost small. Why this may be we can only speculate, but certainly randomness could play a big part.

One of the main things for me is that this way of looking at form shows that far from being 11 points worse than us quality-wise, Liverpool are pretty much a match although we do still shade it.

 

[aliyid]

Good to see that even with the defeat at home to the Spammers we're still 2pts ahead of last season.

The next five games will really give us an opportunity to stride ahead of previous years as it appears we're entering what is historically a tricky run of games where we don't normally do too well (4pts last year, 6pts in 11/12 and 4pts in 10/11)

Hull (H) - Two defeats and one win (3pts from the 9 available) - Replacing Wigan who were relegated
Everton (A) - Lost three years running (0/9)
Newcastle (H) - Won three years running (9/9)
Man City (A) - Lost three years running (0/9)
Man Utd (H) - Two draws and one defeat (2/9)

On a side note a similar view for other teams has been created by a fellow Spurs fan (http://www.ja606.co.uk/articles/viewArticle/235802) If DevonshireSpur is on SC then great work mate

The "Equivalent Fixtures to last season" bit shows that Arsenal have picked up 5 fewer points this year than against the same teams last season... So, yes, they have been playing well but it's been against teams that they also beat last year and their tougher games are yet to come...

 

[Spurs 1961]

I think Liverpool in the table above would be exactly the evidence above to show that that's not necessarily true.

Sure but I am assuming we are not going 'gung ho' and forgetting how to defend as a team This we have improved hugely even thought he defence always seem to get a lot of stick. What we need are a few more goals from somewhere. Our goals difference is so poor that is it come down to this we know we are stuffed.

By the way I don't consider Liverpool a real rival

 

[Kingstheman]

An evolving season? Or true 'form'? Either way, as long as at the end of the season, the cock stands proudly above the rest, I'll be satisfied.


P.S. I like this idea.

 

[Kingstheman]

AVB unleashing a punch worthy of Street Fighter 2.

 

[SandroClegane]

Game-week 7

Current position / Highest position / Lowest position / Number of weeks in Top four* / up down

Utd - 1st / 1st / 1st / 3 weeks / -
Arse - 2nd / 2nd / 3rd / 3 weeks / -
City - 3rd / 2nd / 3rd / 3 weeks / -
Liverpool - 4th / 4th / 6th / 1 weeks / ^
Spurs - 5th / 4th / 5th / 2 weeks / v
Chelsea - 6th / 5th / 6th / 0 weeks / v
Everton - 7th / 7th / 7th / 0 weeks / -

I was in mourning after our loss to West Ham so didn't so this then, however this is the table as it would have looked just after we lost to them.

Talking points are Liverpool leap-frogging both Chelsea and ourselves (on goal difference) to take that hotly contested 4th spot.

It means that for the first time the top six clubs all have 70 points or more.

It's worth noting that Chelsea still can't get into the top four and it's maybe a bit surprising they remain considered one of the favourites for the title over teams which have performed better than them for a considerable time now.


Game-week 8

Current position / Highest position / Lowest position / Number of weeks in Top four* / up down

Utd - 1st / 1st / 1st / 4 weeks / -
Arse - 2nd / 2nd / 3rd / 4 weeks / -
City - 3rd / 2nd / 3rd / 4 weeks / -
Spurs - 4th / 4th / 5th / 3 weeks / ^
Chelsea - 5th / 5th / 6th / 0 weeks / ^
Liverpool - 6th / 4th / 6th / 1 weeks / v
Everton - 7th / 7th / 7th / 0 weeks / -

So after Liverpool's meteoric rise last week, they're back down to earth with a bump this, one draw sees them drop two places below both Chelsea and us. Meanwhile we're back on track firmly ensconced in 4th with a 4 point gap over 5th and closing in on City who now only just cling onto third by two points.

At the top there's a real tussle between Arsenal and Utd, with Arsenal hauling them in with each week that passes, what money on Arsenal being our snap-shot league champions next week?


* This experiment began with week five, therefore the number of weeks in the top four stems from then.

Keep up the good work, mate